Poll: When does Kelly take over starting or backup role?

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Thread: When does Chad Kelly take over the starting job

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Probably never.
    Kelly is Manziel without the draft status.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Kelly is Manziel without the draft status.
    I would disagree with this. Kelly is a hot head, which has got himself into trouble. He probably does party, but not like Manziel, I'd bet.

    Also, I think he's more talented than Manziel, who I never understood how he was taken in the first round to begin with.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    I would disagree with this. Kelly is a hot head, which has got himself into trouble. He probably does party, but not like Manziel, I'd bet.

    Also, I think he's more talented than Manziel, who I never understood how he was taken in the first round to begin with.
    Place Tim Tebow's head on Manziel's body, and you would have a real quarterback.

    But I agree Kelly's better. In fact, I believe he's better physically than the other two for the Broncos. I just hope he's growing up.
    Though He slay me, I will trust in Him . . . (Job 13:15)


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    Quote Originally Posted by topscribe View Post
    Place Tim Tebow's head on Manziel's body, and you would have a real quarterback.

    But I agree Kelly's better. In fact, I believe he's better physically than the other two for the Broncos. I just hope he's growing up.
    Well, Tebow has a giant ego despite all the public bluster and he couldn't read a defense to save his life, so I still think that quarterback would be pretty shitty.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    Well, Tebow has a giant ego despite all the public bluster and he couldn't read a defense to save his life, so I still think that quarterback would be pretty shitty.
    Maybe you're right. We would still have a great guy who can't play QB. lol
    Though He slay me, I will trust in Him . . . (Job 13:15)


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    I'd rather take Jake Plummer's head and put it on Cutler's body, forget Tebow and Manziel...we can do better.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

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    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
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    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    I would disagree with this. Kelly is a hot head, which has got himself into trouble. He probably does party, but not like Manziel, I'd bet.

    Also, I think he's more talented than Manziel, who I never understood how he was taken in the first round to begin with.
    Mostly agree with how you distinguish Kelly from Manziel. I watched Perna's 'Doing Shots with the Broncos' and my thought after watching Kelly was that he's a solid locker room guy but he's a partier. I just don't think he has the gravitas for the position.

    Like Lynch, I'll be happy to eat crow about him. If he has a good support system, keeping him focused on the task at hand, he's a quality starter.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

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    All quarterback are terrible, they should just bring back the single wing

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    tonight

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tned View Post
    Seriously, though. While it's a long shot, he has the tools to be something special. The question is whether he's finally got his mental shit together.
    Well, since the "mental shit" is about 90% of playing QB in the NFL, the only answer is "not for a while."

    Since later (after the mid 2nd round) QBs almost never become SB winning QBs (Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner & Tom Brady are the lone exceptions) that also points towards "never".

    For some reason, people don't understand or like statistics. But, there have been a LOT of QBs drafted after around 56 (where Osweiler was taken) since 2000 when Brady was taken in the 6th round. That's 18 seasons. 36 QBs started SBs in that time.

    So, based on simple statistics with no detailed analysis:

    3 guys out of 36 = .08% or 8/10 of a percent. Not even a 1% chance. So, if you bet "never" you'd be 99% sure to win the bet, since over 99% of QBs taken in the later rounds never win SBs.

    You can quibble about the statistics, but basically it's around 99% chance of "Never" and maybe a 1% chance of a miracle where Denver finds a franchise QB in the last pick of the draft and he wins the SB someday.

    Just because it's never actually happened that Mr. Irrelevant becomes a SB champion, doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's wildly unlikely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    For some reason, people don't understand or like statistics.
    So you are using qbs drafted after Brady, Manning, Warner, Dilfer, Collins, Gannon, Johnson, Delhomme, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Brees to prove a point about which QBs have gone to the superbowls those QBs played in?
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

  17. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    So you are using qbs drafted after Brady, Manning, Warner, Dilfer, Collins, Gannon, Johnson, Delhomme, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Brees to prove a point about which QBs have gone to the superbowls those QBs played in?
    No, it's the modern football era. 2000 is a good cutoff because the NFL started protecting QBs more and more in the 2000s and because Brady was drafted in the 6th round in 2000. They started flagging "late hits" which they now interpret as anything after the ball leaves the QB's hands. The rules changed, making the league more of a passing league. And every time anybody points out how rare it is for later round QBs to succeed, some idiot always points to Tom Brady. That's all.

    Brees is not mentioned because he was drafted #32, which is before the late 2nd round. He wasn't a later round pick.

    You can arbitrarily change the parameters if you like but it won't change the result much. About a 1% chance of success. 99% chance of failure.

    Dilfer IS an important exception. I didn't mention him because he was drafted before 2000. But, about once a decade a team with an historically great defense wins the SB, despite having not much offense and a journeyman QB. '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2015 Broncos (Peyton was on his last legs). But, they never repeat. So, as a formula for sustained success, it's not a good one and for purposes of looking towards the future, it's not relevant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShaneFalco View Post
    tonight
    Is that a lobster on Tebow's helmet? Or a crab?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    You can arbitrarily change the parameters if you like but it won't change the result much. About a 1% chance of success. 99% chance of failure.
    What's the failure percentage of QBs drafted before 56?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tned View Post
    What's the failure percentage of QBs drafted before 56?
    Last time I tried to make semblance of a number to this question I arrived at about 93 percent.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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