Thread: 2017 Starting QB prediction

This is a waste of a thread, but then it's the offseason.

I've got 80-20 it's Trevor starting game 1 of 2017. Here's why I think that. If Paxton was serious about starting 2017, he would have done some offseason work with the receivers. I don't care if the GT and SMU cats don't show, he'd do something. He'd fight for the job. I just don't see that spark, that fire. I see it with Trevor because even though he might be the Ryan Lochte to Paxton's Phelps, he's grinding and using the disses as fuel to improve.

I guess we'll see.

Yeah, so what %'s you got for Trev and Pax? As starter?

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

This is a waste of a thread, but then it's the offseason.

I've got 80-20 it's Trevor starting game 1 of 2017. Here's why I think that. If Paxton was serious about starting 2017, he would have done some offseason work with the receivers. I don't care if the GT and SMU cats don't show, he'd do something. He'd fight for the job. I just don't see that spark, that fire. I see it with Trevor because even though he might be the Ryan Lochte to Paxton's Phelps, he's grinding and using the disses as fuel to improve.

I guess we'll see.

Yeah, so what %'s you got for Trev and Pax? As starter?

I'm not disagreeing, but let me ask you: if this turns out to be true, is it time to shop Lynch? I don't mean TS starting, I mean the reason why Lynch isn't starting.

Originally Posted by spikerman

I'm not disagreeing, but let me ask you: if this turns out to be true, is it time to shop Lynch? I don't mean TS starting, I mean the reason why Lynch isn't starting.

I mean, why would it be? He's got no real value if we're so eager to throw him away. Sit on him as a backup, hope he develops and then let him build up his value.

Our QB's are dirt cheap. It would be stupid to shop either of them, better to have the depth.

Originally Posted by spikerman

I'm not disagreeing, but let me ask you: if this turns out to be true, is it time to shop Lynch? I don't mean TS starting, I mean the reason why Lynch isn't starting.

If Lynch can't sniff the field I don't think he'll bring much on the trade market....two chickens and a bag of rice?

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

If Lynch can't sniff the field I don't think he'll bring much on the trade market....two chickens and a bag of rice?

I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves. If, and I mean if the coaches decide that he's not putting in the work and decide to move on there are plenty of other coaches who will see a first round pick with a rocket arm and think they can change him. Getting compensation won't be hard.

Originally Posted by spikerman

I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves. If, and I mean if the coaches decide that he's not putting in the work and decide to move on there are plenty of other coaches who will see a first round pick with a rocket arm and think they can change him. Getting compensation won't be hard.

If he can't compete with a 7th round I beg to differ, unless that 7th round pick turns into an all pro

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

If he can't compete with a 7th round I beg to differ, unless that 7th round pick turns into an all pro

That's ok. We can disagree. I don't think he's going anywhere anyway.

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

If he can't compete with a 7th round I beg to differ, unless that 7th round pick turns into an all pro

Just a question, but what does where a guy is picked have anything to do with where they are right now? So TS was a 7th round pick, he also showed a lot of potential last year behind a shit Oline. I don't care who the starting QB is, as long as it's the best guy for the job. Based on last year I saw more from TS than Lynch. Maybe that changes, but what does that have to do with where they were picked?

Originally Posted by gregbroncs

Just a question, but what does where a guy is picked have anything to do with where they are right now? So TS was a 7th round pick, he also showed a lot of potential last year behind a shit Oline. I don't care who the starting QB is, as long as it's the best guy for the job. Based on last year I saw more from TS than Lynch. Maybe that changes, but what does that have to do with where they were picked?

Since one played 2 games and the other played 14 I think the world saw more from one than the other. All I seen was poor quarterback play/ poor offense just like the year prior. Nothing that we saw from any quarterback the last two year's is anything to get excited about. Can only hope it changes since the offense as a whole has gotten better on the line and way way faster all across the board. All of these quarterbacks will have no excuses soon.

Originally Posted by gregbroncs

Just a question, but what does where a guy is picked have anything to do with where they are right now? So TS was a 7th round pick, he also showed a lot of potential last year behind a shit Oline. I don't care who the starting QB is, as long as it's the best guy for the job. Based on last year I saw more from TS than Lynch. Maybe that changes, but what does that have to do with where they were picked?

Where a QB is picked indicates with brutal clarity what every NFL personnel department thinks of that guy. 7th round guy = training camp arm or at best practice squad long-term developmental guy.

How many 7th round picks can you name who are starting QBs in the NFL? I don't think there is one. And even if one ends up starting for a time that usually only means the team hasn't anyone better, but is looking to upgrade by replacing that guy.

The Broncos are looking to upgrade over the play they received (mostly from Trevor) last year at QB. That's why, despite the fact that Trevor started last year, he's only 50-50 to be the starting QB this year. Paxton has an even chance.

But, neither of them is going to keep their starting job unless they make a huge leap to being actually GOOD - not just better than the other guy. "Can this guy win in the playoffs?" is going to be the question in John Elway's mind.

If not, then he will go back to the draft in 2018 and get a QB in the first round. And they will replace BOTH of these guys.

Originally Posted by Cugel

Where a QB is picked indicates with brutal clarity what every NFL personnel department thinks of that guy.

And as we know, those personnel departments have perfect knowledge. Just like wall street and hedge funds. They are all pretty omniscient and get it right every time.

Sometimes something isn't on your radar because the radar-cross-section is too small. Stealth materials.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

And as we know, those personnel departments have perfect knowledge. Just like wall street and hedge funds. They are all pretty omniscient and get it right every time.

Sometimes something isn't on your radar because the radar-cross-section is too small. Stealth materials.

Does it matter whether personnel directors sometimes fail with their predictions? No.
YOu fail! Go to the back of the class!

What matters is the answer to two questions you aren't even bright enough to ask let alone answer.

#1: Is being the better QB between the two good enough for either Trevor or Paxton to keep the starting job?

#2: If not, then what exactly is the standard by which they are being judged?

The answer to both questions is the same: John Elway is applying a completely arbitrary standard of judgement to both QBs: "Does this guy project to being a top 10 QB if we continue to play and develop him?"

So, it really doesn't matter whether Paxton is better than Trevor or Trevor is better than Paxton. What matters is whether EITHER can convince Elway he is developing into a top 10 QB.

Right now the Answer is "uncertain." Both QBs have the "potential" to be top 10 guys - maybe. Probably not in Trevor's case, but neither is really a certainty.

The instant John Elway decides the answer is "No!" for either of them, that guy will instantly become expendable and he will start looking for a replacement.

The minute they conclude that the answer is "yes" for either of them rather than "maybe" that guy becomes the Franchise QB.

Where a player was drafted affects teams' expectations about where they will end up. All players are NOT viewed as equal. Now lots of ex-players resent that bitterly.

You hear Mark Schlereth going on and on ranting about how it doesn't matter where a player was drafted, he has to "earn it." And yet he admits that it matters very MUCH to NFL teams where a guy was drafted, because that draft status colours every expectation about what he will ultimately accomplish.

The entire NFL views Trevor Siemian as a 7th round scrub and Paxton as having "first round potential." That completely arbitrary belief influences how everybody views these prospects. And that views how many chances they will get to succeed.

For instance, if Trevor loses his starting job and ultimately released or traded he'll wind up in some place like the New York Jets where he will be a temporary starter until the team can draft and develop a QB to replace him. He won't get a "fair" chance to compete for a starting job, and even if he gets the job, his team will view him as a temporary fill in until they can get the QB they drafted ready.

If Paxton fails, he will wind up on some other team where they will probably give him a chance to compete for a starting job, because that other team will reason "we had a 1st round grade on this guy when he was drafted. Maybe if he comes here we could develop that talent Denver failed to develop." So, they give him another chance.

Where you were drafted makes all the difference in the world.

Conclusion: Teams judge young and unproven players by "potential" not by what a guy has actually done on the field. It's what they MIGHT do if given the chance. Only if they play the guy with the "low ceiling" does that hinder their chances to "develop" the guy with the higher "ceiling?" What if both projections are nothing more than guesswork?

They still proceed to guess and base their decisions on that guess. The process of guessing is called "the draft." And the "draft grade" professional scouts and GMs around the league have on a player influences his entire career and what chances he is given. NFL = "not fair league."

Originally Posted by gregbroncs

Just a question, but what does where a guy is picked have anything to do with where they are right now? So TS was a 7th round pick, he also showed a lot of potential last year behind a shit Oline. I don't care who the starting QB is, as long as it's the best guy for the job. Based on last year I saw more from TS than Lynch. Maybe that changes, but what does that have to do with where they were picked?

Nothing.

But I disagree that Siemian is decidedly better than Lynch.

Originally Posted by spikerman

That's ok. We can disagree. I don't think he's going anywhere anyway.

Probably right. We'll know more when see him this preseason. It will be easy to see if he's progressed.

Siemian looked like a totally different player last preseason than he did the previous preseason

Poor Paxton, washed up after 11 months.