Thread: 2017 Starting QB prediction

Originally Posted by DT88TheGreat

When a team knows how your coming and still cant stop you is what makes you an elite offense.

Yeah, that sounds great, but the days when the Packer Sweep was a cutting edge play Lombardi could show opposing defenses on a chalkboard before the game and STILL execute for 5-6 yds at a time are long gone.

Originally Posted by DT88TheGreat

If the Broncos offense plans on being elite like the defense is aiming for every year then they better start being able to punish teams even if they know it's coming because that shit happens all the time. Some teams have the ability and do the studying to know tendencies and they will know what you are doing and it's up to you to still punish them.

Tendencies are one thing, but passing from an empty set or running from a power I, is no mere "tendency," it's painting yourself into a corner. Same reason I cringe every time we go empty set on 3rd and short: Don't make the Ds job easy. If you want to pass for a couple yards and a first, fine, but don't telegraph it. This isn't the SECAA; pro teams can't just rely on a huge recruiting and scholarship edge to bowl over half a dozen Central Floridas every year to guarantee a bowl berth where they get blown out just as they did against the hand full of ranked teams they faced in the regular season.

Originally Posted by Joel

Yeah, that sounds great, but the days when the Packer Sweep was a cutting edge play Lombardi could show opposing defenses on a chalkboard before the game and STILL execute for 5-6 yds at a time are long gone.


Tendencies are one thing, but passing from an empty set or running from a power I, is no mere "tendency," it's painting yourself into a corner. Same reason I cringe every time we go empty set on 3rd and short: Don't make the Ds job easy. If you want to pass for a couple yards and a first, fine, but don't telegraph it. This isn't the SECAA; pro teams can't just rely on a huge recruiting and scholarship edge to bowl over half a dozen Central Floridas every year to guarantee a bowl berth where they get blown out just as they did against the hand full of ranked teams they faced in the regular season.

The modern NFL is a pass first league now. The whole "we're going to run it down your throat and tell you about it before hand" stuff is DINOSAUR. Obsolete. Can it work in today's NFL? Well, sure. If you have Dallas' offensive line. But, the problem is that there are fewer and fewer elite OL coming into the league. This year was particularly bad, so bad that Garrett Bolles was the top OL taken in the entire draft - at #20.

The Broncos, along with 1/2 the NFL teams, have either a below average OL or a mediocre one. Even with their improvements don't expect this OL to be better than about #15 league wide, especially starting a rookie LT. Only a handful of teams have an elite OL.

So, it's a good thing we are scrapping that Kubiak system and implementing a 70-80% shot-gun offense under Mike McCoy. Maybe they can execute that offense better. However, it will require the QBs to throw downfield a bit more and be more aggressive. No more 3 yard pass plays to Jordan Norwood on 3rd and 7. No more running right between the tackles for -2 yards. The whole Kubiak offense just didn't work. In the 90's teams they had really top quality OL - Gary Zimmerman, Hall of Fame, Mark Shlereth, Tommy Nalen, Tony Jones. Every one of those guys was better than any of the current OL. I don't know why Kubiak thought that system would work here with the garbage OL they accumulated.

#shitgun

Originally Posted by Cugel

The modern NFL is a pass first league now. The whole "we're going to run it down your throat and tell you about it before hand" stuff is DINOSAUR. Obsolete. Can it work in today's NFL? Well, sure. If you have Dallas' offensive line. But, the problem is that there are fewer and fewer elite OL coming into the league. This year was particularly bad, so bad that Garrett Bolles was the top OL taken in the entire draft - at #20.

The Broncos, along with 1/2 the NFL teams, have either a below average OL or a mediocre one. Even with their improvements don't expect this OL to be better than about #15 league wide, especially starting a rookie LT. Only a handful of teams have an elite OL.

So, it's a good thing we are scrapping that Kubiak system and implementing a 70-80% shot-gun offense under Mike McCoy. Maybe they can execute that offense better. However, it will require the QBs to throw downfield a bit more and be more aggressive. No more 3 yard pass plays to Jordan Norwood on 3rd and 7. No more running right between the tackles for -2 yards. The whole Kubiak offense just didn't work. In the 90's teams they had really top quality OL - Gary Zimmerman, Hall of Fame, Mark Shlereth, Tommy Nalen, Tony Jones. Every one of those guys was better than any of the current OL. I don't know why Kubiak thought that system would work here with the garbage OL they accumulated.

The question wasn't run vs. pass, but whether it's possible to be so good at one or the other that opponents can't stop it even when they KNOW what's coming. The short answer is "NO, because the offenses entire advantage lies in controlling initiative, so tipping its hand cedes its sole advantage to the D." That said....

The problem with a run-first philosophy isn't that "these kids today just don't know how to block and don't care; in my day..." The problem is:

1) Rules already slanted in favor of passing have become ever more so, so now it's illegal to hit a "defenseless player" above the shoulders if he's a receiver, but NOT if he's a runner (in fact, RBs can actually be penalized for such hits on "defenseless" DEFENDERS,) while it's practically illegal to hit a passer AT ALL.

2) Meanwhile, the cap is reminding NFL coaches what AFL coaches realized 50 years ago: It's easier to find (much less keep) one good QB and 2-3 good WRs than 2-3 good RBs and 5-6 good offensive linemen. Todays linemen may suck, but each and every FA period still features many teams playing Musical Blockers with many more linemen, with even mediocre OTs commanding top dollar, and top Gs frequently becoming casualties as a consequence.

Passing puts butts in the bleachers and in front of the TV, another lesson the AFL learned in its infancy, so the NFL's unlikely to do anything to rein in a steady trend that goes all the way back to 1905 (i.e. to the moment "football" as we understand the term replaced "rugby elevens" the US.)

Running still works, and, all else being equal, remains preferable to passing, but situationally. By the time Don Hutson and Sammy Baugh retired, they'd made the pass became the finishing flourish it has been ever since, and until runs can flip field position or score immediate points as consistently as the pass that won't change. There've been over a dozen 99 yd TD passes, the first in 1939; in the history of the NFL, there has been exactly ONE 99 yd TD run.)

It's been "a passers league" since before anyone here was BORN. Run to establish the pass, because defenses won't stop playing nickel or dime and blitzing the QB until/unless their opponents consistently move the chains with enough 5-6 yd plunges to MAKE them defend the run, even at the risk of allowing a TD bomb. Once the pass puts you on top, run to salt away the win by chewing clock and protecting the ball. There's nothing new under the sun.

Dallas lost the '66 NFCCG the same way Seattle lost SB XLIX, and a year later GB won the '67 NFCCG the same way Riggins won SB XVII, Davis won SB XXXI and Bradshaw won SB XLVI (i.e. the way Beast Mode should've clinched a HoF bust by winning SB XLIX.) But, with the exception of Riggins' bruising gallop, NONE of those championship runs would've been possible if PASSING hadn't moved the ball to the goal line. A place for everything, and everything in its place.

Originally Posted by Joel

The question wasn't run vs. pass, but whether it's possible to be so good at one or the other that opponents can't stop it even when they KNOW what's coming. The short answer is "NO, because the offenses entire advantage lies in controlling initiative, so tipping its hand cedes its sole advantage to the D." That said....

The problem with a run-first philosophy isn't that "these kids today just don't know how to block and don't care; in my day..." The problem is:

1) Rules already slanted in favor of passing have become ever more so, so now it's illegal to hit a "defenseless player" above the shoulders if he's a receiver, but NOT if he's a runner (in fact, RBs can actually be penalized for such hits on "defenseless" DEFENDERS,) while it's practically illegal to hit a passer AT ALL.

Joel, you're a good guy, but this proves only that:
1. You don't know what a defenseless player is and,
2. You don't understand the rule.

Originally Posted by spikerman

Joel, you're a good guy, but this proves only that:
1. You don't know what a defenseless player is and,
2. You don't understand the rule.

Who does? I'm still trying to figure out why a RB leading with his head involves a "defenseless" player at all; isn't the "rationale" that players too focused on the ball and/or caught in midair have no opportunity to protect themselves from contact? How does that apply to a tackler?

Regardless, as long as offenses reflexively look around for a flag to save them after each failed pass but simply line up to try again after each failed run, the NFL must remain a passers league for reasons that have nothing to do with yds/att. As a ref, you know better than anyone that the same offensive players eager for flags on pass plays FEAR them on runs, yet the NFL responded by increasing the ways to commit a defensive foul on a pass and an offensive one on a run.

The good news is Denvers current GM was a championship exec in an(other) arena league. But could the Toronto Argonauts beat the NFL at our own game...?

Originally Posted by Joel

Not sure you're serious, but: When that forces them to bench their nickelback for a LB and bring a safety to the line, could we still exploit them deep? "Run to establish the pass" only works if you've got the personnel for the kill shot. I'd rather run many kinds of plays from a few formations than a few plays from many kinds of formations, because every time we substitute they can too. Initiative is offenses chief advantage, so I don't like tipping my hand to the D.

I'm always serious, Joel.

DT and Sanders are deep threats.

Joel, by rule (in college and possibly in the NFL) leading with the crown of the helmet against any player is targeting and the offended player does not need to fall in the "defenseless" category. That being said, before you get upset about this rule, when was the last time you saw it called on a RB?

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

#shitgun

I'm thinking eventually a backfield of Saquon Barkley, Paxton Lynch and Jalen Hurd lined up split backs in the shitgun, just like Sooners and their POS offense. Hurd and Barkley can both be lined up as receivers for an empty backfield so Lynch can run some sweet QB draws.

Originally Posted by Jaded

Broncos need to go back to the Pro Set/Split Backs to really get most out of their FB, that'd be tits.

Brandon Jacobs type on one side and a Mike Alstott on the other. Pound these 220lb LB's through a mother****er face, they just ain't gon' want dat.

https://theringer.com/nfl-offensive-...g-a8e0ae117091

Ugh. Limiting your offense sucks.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Ugh. Limiting your offense sucks.

You mean like how the Shotgun limits your running game?

Von Miller loves the shotgun

Originally Posted by chazoe60

You mean like how the Shotgun limits your running game?

This is false.

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

Von Miller loves the shotgun

Easier to rush the passer from under center...the quarterback has more footwork and it takes more time to get into a set throwing motion, so while I don't think Von Bad Mother****** Miller cares what formation the offense is in, I think he'd prefer under center.