Thread: Von Miller on QB: 'Me, personally, I like Trev'

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I have said -while noting that I was being serious- that I think TS could develop into a game manager guy like Alex Smith. Smith, while sometimes underwhelming, is pretty damn good in the playoffs, uses his mobility quite well, and is very efficient. He's been efficient and solid while having some lacking offenses in his time at KC.

So I do -seriously- question his ability to be very good at the game, and I think some of the people are too optimistic in what he could become. I say that because it's always 'who knows how he will turn out' or things like that while also lacking a qualifier.

Nobody knows. But NFL history gives us ODDS. And the odds of a 7th round QB turning into an elite QB capable of going into New England and beating Tom Brady on the road (or Ben Roethlisberger in Pitts) - we know that ain't great. Like well below 1% (1 out of over 150 QBs taken in the late 2nd to 7th rounds since the 2000 draft).

People don't like odds and can't mentally grasp statistics. That's how Vegas builds all those $1B casinos. Because people can't process "my chances are 1 in 38, that's not good enough odds to put down a $100 bet. Forget it!"

That's why I'm on pretty safe grounds saying "I don't think Trevor Siemian is ever going to be an elite starting QB in this league. At best he's another Kyle Orton who exceeded his draft status. And a Kyle Orton will never lead you to any NFL titles. Thus, it's better to start Paxton Lynch and see what he can do, and if he flops then go out in the next draft and get another franchise QB, because Siemian is never going to be that guy!"

Originally Posted by Northman

Im still shocked that VK changed allegiances. I still cant wrap my head around it but am glad he is with us. lol

He switched when Kubiak returned, no? Pretty sure it's Stockholm Syndrome; he's probably grateful Kubiak retired, because that was seemingly the ONLY way he wouldn't continue increasing his PERFECT record against Marvin Lewis.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

I have what some may deem an unhealthy addiction to Orange crush. I tend to polish off a two liter on game days because I am superstitious and believe that drinking Orange crush helps us win lol. And then I wonder why I am fat.

I was still in Norway for the 2013 season (at the end of which my daughter was born) so my mom sent us care packages that included tons of Kool-Aid and, even though I normally can't STAND orange drinks (due to an unfortunate childhood incident with a severe virus, orange-flavored cough syrup and LOTS of vomiting,) once we went through nearly all the rest, I did it, on Gameday, no less:

I literally drank the orange kool-aid.

It became a ritual, though on the day of the SB I pre-loaded with the Notorious Pheasant, or whatever it's called, and was already pretty buzzed by kickoff. For which I am eternally grateful....

Originally Posted by Cugel

Nobody knows. But NFL history gives us ODDS. And the odds of a 7th round QB turning into an elite QB capable of going into New England and beating Tom Brady on the road (or Ben Roethlisberger in Pitts) - we know that ain't great. Like well below 1% (1 out of over 150 QBs taken in the late 2nd to 7th rounds since the 2000 draft).

People don't like odds and can't mentally grasp statistics. That's how Vegas builds all those $1B casinos. Because people can't process "my chances are 1 in 38, that's not good enough odds to put down a $100 bet. Forget it!"

That's why I'm on pretty safe grounds saying "I don't think Trevor Siemian is ever going to be an elite starting QB in this league. At best he's another Kyle Orton who exceeded his draft status. And a Kyle Orton will never lead you to any NFL titles. Thus, it's better to start Paxton Lynch and see what he can do, and if he flops then go out in the next draft and get another franchise QB, because Siemian is never going to be that guy!"

The odds of a 7th round QB beating a 6th round QB are minuscule? That doesn't sound mathematically sound, even in a road game.

It's not just about the odds of Siemian making; not hardly. It's also about the odds of LYNCH making it (which are helluva better than those of a 7th rounder, but still heavily favor the house,) the fact Siemian's actually SHOWN something worthwhile and Lynch hasn't, the need for a long term solution at the games single most important position, and the fact that the odds of ANYONE selected for that job actually COMPLETING it are well below 50/50.

The main difference is that if the odds of Siemians success are even worse than the already terrible odds for EVERYONE, the RISK is also minuscule. Worse case scenario, if we ride Siemian next year and an 82 passer rating proves to BE the ceiling from which he slump back into abysmal play, what do we get?

A top 10, top 5 or even BETTER pick to find our QBotF IF Lynch looks no better than Siemian when the Opening Day starter's benched by midseason (which is guaranteed if he slumps; Elway won't keep trotting a losing QB out there when he has a second-year 1st rounder earning millions riding pine.)

NOTE, btw, this isn't an argument to "ride Siemians hot hand;" virtually ALL the same logic applies if we start Lynch Opening Day and let Siemian back him up. The sole difference is that we'd be risking far more because Lynch wasn't a 7th rounder, but that pick's spent, so we can never get it back whether Lynch is the next Manning or Leaf. Either way, if the Opening Day starter bombs he'll be benched, and if a different Week 17 starter ALSO bombs, we'll be drafting a QB early.

With odds little better statistically than Siemians. I mean, sure, we can say a 1st round QB is "an order of magnitude" or whatever more likely to succeed than a 7th rounder, but 10X1% is still only 10%; I wouldn't double down on that in Vegas nor anywhere else. If there's one overriding truism about drafting QBs (or anything else) it's that the odds of getting a great one are so low it'll almost always take multiple tries.

If you want to put probability and statistics, the Law of Truly Large Numbers proves the Gamblers Fallacy just that but also proves that SOMEWHERE within a huge number of drafts there will occasionally be a Brady or Davis in the 6th. I like pointing out the chances a HoFer drops to the bottom of the 1st is small because it means the majority of NFL scout teams horribly failed at what they do for a living, and the chances one drops to the 2nd or later is even lower because that means they ALL screwed up REPEATEDLY.

Yet sometimes they DO all royally screw up EVERY SINGLE ONE of ALL rounds. Else Rod Smith and Night Train Lane wouldn't have gone undrafted in EVERY round.

For once, let's skip the math and just keep it in sports: You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.—Michael Jordan

Originally Posted by Joel

He switched when Kubiak returned, no? Pretty sure it's Stockholm Syndrome; he's probably grateful Kubiak retired, because that was seemingly the ONLY way he wouldn't continue increasing his PERFECT record against Marvin Lewis.

I was still in Norway for the 2013 season (at the end of which my daughter was born) so my mom sent us care packages that included tons of Kool-Aid and, even though I normally can't STAND orange drinks (due to an unfortunate childhood incident with a severe virus, orange-flavored cough syrup and LOTS of vomiting,) once we went through nearly all the rest, I did it, on Gameday, no less:

I literally drank the orange kool-aid.

It became a ritual, though on the day of the SB I pre-loaded with the Notorious Pheasant, or whatever it's called, and was already pretty buzzed by kickoff. For which I am eternally grateful....


The odds of a 7th round QB beating a 6th round QB are minuscule? That doesn't sound mathematically sound, even in a road game.

It's not just about the odds of Siemian making; not hardly. It's also about the odds of LYNCH making it (which are helluva better than those of a 7th rounder, but still heavily favor the house,) the fact Siemian's actually SHOWN something worthwhile and Lynch hasn't, the need for a long term solution at the games single most important position, and the fact that the odds of ANYONE selected for that job actually COMPLETING it are well below 50/50.

The main difference is that if the odds of Siemians success are even worse than the already terrible odds for EVERYONE, the RISK is also minuscule. Worse case scenario, if we ride Siemian next year and an 82 passer rating proves to BE the ceiling from which he slump back into abysmal play, what do we get?

A top 10, top 5 or even BETTER pick to find our QBotF IF Lynch looks no better than Siemian when the Opening Day starter's benched by midseason (which is guaranteed if he slumps; Elway won't keep trotting a losing QB out there when he has a second-year 1st rounder earning millions riding pine.)

NOTE, btw, this isn't an argument to "ride Siemians hot hand;" virtually ALL the same logic applies if we start Lynch Opening Day and let Siemian back him up. The sole difference is that we'd be risking far more because Lynch wasn't a 7th rounder, but that pick's spent, so we can never get it back whether Lynch is the next Manning or Leaf. Either way, if the Opening Day starter bombs he'll be benched, and if a different Week 17 starter ALSO bombs, we'll be drafting a QB early.

With odds little better statistically than Siemians. I mean, sure, we can say a 1st round QB is "an order of magnitude" or whatever more likely to succeed than a 7th rounder, but 10X1% is still only 10%; I wouldn't double down on that in Vegas nor anywhere else. If there's one overriding truism about drafting QBs (or anything else) it's that the odds of getting a great one are so low it'll almost always take multiple tries.

If you want to put probability and statistics, the Law of Truly Large Numbers proves the Gamblers Fallacy just that but also proves that SOMEWHERE within a huge number of drafts there will occasionally be a Brady or Davis in the 6th. I like pointing out the chances a HoFer drops to the bottom of the 1st is small because it means the majority of NFL scout teams horribly failed at what they do for a living, and the chances one drops to the 2nd or later is even lower because that means they ALL screwed up REPEATEDLY.
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Of course this is right. Statistics says that at some point all the NFL scouts are going to miss and a Tom Brady falls to the 6th round; a Kurt Warner goes undrafted, a Drew Brees falls to the 32nd pick, and a Russell Wilson falls to the 3rd round.

And about once every 100 million years a giant meteor hits the earth and wipes out 70% of all the species on the planet like happened to the Dinosaurs. But, waiting for that giant space rock to hit is not very bright because you'll be waiting a Loooong time.

Same thing for a 7th round QB beating Tom Brady in the playoffs.

Can Lynch ever become that guy? We all hope so, but he's shown no sign of it so far. And Elway's track record with drafting QBs is less than stellar at this point. Let's review:

1. Drafted Brock Osweiler instead of Russell Wilson. OK, all the NFL scouts whiffed on that one since Russell fell to the 3rd round. But, offering Osweiler $16M a year, $30 M guaranteed contract looks like a pretty bad idea in retrospect. So, points docked from Elway on that one. He would have been better letting Brock walk and keeping Manning around for another year. Elway doesn't come off as some kind of genius QB evaluator on that one!

2. Drafted Paxton Lynch instead of Dak Prescott. Once again the NFL scouts whiffed on a guy so Elway gets a pass there. But, moving up to get Paxton Lynch in the first round sure doesn't look like genius to anybody at this point. Based on everything we've seen so far Lynch looks like a bust.

WILL he be a bust? Who knows, we'll have to wait and see. But, at this point, Tony Romo is vastly superior to either of these stiffs in terms of talent.

If Elway doesn't sign him it means he doesn't want to pay Romo $10M plus given his injury history, not that he wouldn't be better than either Lynch or Siemian this season.

There wasn't an astronomic or even geological time span between Warner, Brady and Brees: It was FOUR YEARS from the first to the last, who WASN'T the last because of guys like Romo and Wilson. In point of fact, Brees went in the VERY NEXT DRAFT after Brady, though Brees doesn't belong on the list: Since the very next draft after THAT one, pick #32 has been the bottom of the 1st round instead of the top of the 2nd (except years NE* was caught cheating, which was most years. )

Point being, the time since the dinosaurs isn't just an order of magnitude more, it's an order of magnitude of orders of magnitudes more. Which is to say, humans have a well documented problem conceptualizing (or rather, comparing) very large numbers, but 4 ISN'T a very large number, so it should be easy to see how minuscule it is compared to 65,000,000. If you're worried you won't be around FOUR YEARS you don't need a QB, you need a huge life insurance policy.

Originally Posted by Joel

There wasn't an astronomic . .

But there was a gastronomic.

What the **** is this shit?

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

What the **** is this shit?

Focus.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Focus.

**** Off cause ur stupid?

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

**** Off cause ur stupid?

This is getting us nowhere.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

This is getting us nowhere.

I thought you were using the classic f.o.c.u.s. or **** off cause ur stupid line on me.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I thought you were using the classic f.o.c.u.s. or **** off cause ur stupid line on me.

Nah, that's Saturdays.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

But there was a gastronomic.

In the sense the 6th round 1st ballot HoFer makes me nauseous, yes.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

What the **** is this shit?

Cugel's trying to convince us winning a lottery's no more likely than an asteroid exterminating humanity. Even though people win lotteries every day, and none of those winners has been killed by an asteroid (in fact, the Chixculub Asteroid was basically the greatest thing that ever happened to humans until we discovered fire.)

Of COURSE the odds of a quality player are MUCH higher than the 1st than the 2nd round, much less later ones, but of COURSE every round (and even UDFAs) has produced HoFers. This would be insultingly obvious if we were discussing ANY other position (say, OT, just to take a completely nonrandom example. ) But, somehow, QBs are either 1st rounders or scrubs, even if a later round QB had an NFL debut that would be impressive even for a 1st rounder.

Except Warner. And Brady. And Brees. But those are RARE events; they only happened three times in four seasons: That's not even (quite) annually!

Great news for those of you that dislike Trevor. He needs another surgery and will be out through camp and pre-season. I doubt he sees another snap...damn it... Stokley reported it.

I guess bring on Romo, Cutler, Paxton or whoever the next man up is.

Stokley is reporting that he'll be out 5-6 months and will likely miss training camp and part or all of preseason. Without the 1st team snaps to build upon last year and improve I think some of you are getting your wish. I see it very unlikely he starts unless we have zero other options and Paxton is a giant turd.

Paxton is going to have a perfect chance to shine, if he doesn't win the job getting the vast majority of the 1st team reps this season, we need to bring someone else in because he isn't going to.