Thread: The Future Is Elway

There has been endless speculation regarding the Broncos coaching and personnel issues coming out of the disappointing 2016 season. I thought it potentially useful to point out some of the issues from Elway's perspective, since he's large and in charge at Dove Valley.

From Elway's perspective, virtually nothing about 2016 went according to plan. Big Al and DMac discuss it in brief on 104.3 The Fan:

DMac: "First [after Peyton retired] it [the new QB] was supposed to be Brock Osweiler. That didn't work out. Then it was supposed to be Mark Sanchez. That didn't work out. The backup, who was supposed to be the backup to Mark Sanchez, was Paxton Lynch. That didn't work out. And then you got Trevor Siemian. If you were talking about Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, this is like "Plan Zed." I just went Canadian on you. That's how they say Z in Canada.

"So Trevor Siemian was never anybody's first choice - except Gary Kubiak."

Big AL: "And his parents. His parents definitely wanted him to start."

DMac: "Yeah, and his high school coach."

Big Al: "Maybe some of those guys from Northwestern. Especially those at the Law Library."

Basically, Trevor Siemian has the support of the guys in the locker room, because he was the most developed and ready QB. For the same reason Kubiak liked him better. DMac thinks Kubiak saw himself in Trevor, a little regarded over-achiever whom nobody really wanted as a starter, but who kept working hard for his chance.

But, from Elway's perspective, viewing the scene from 10,000 feet in a strategic sense, THIS is what he sees:

Which QBs have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl the last 15 years?
2015: Peyton Manning
2014: Tom Brady
2013: Peyton Manning
2012: Joe Flacco
2011: Tom Brady
2010: Ben Roethlisberger
2009: Peyton Manning
2008: Ben Roethlisberger
2007: Tom Brady
2006: Peyton Manning
2005: Ben Roethlisberger
2004: Tom Brady
2003: Tom Brady
2002: Rich Gannon
2001: Tom Brady
2000: Trent Dilfer

In the last 15 years, only 3 QBs not named Brady, Peyton Manning or Roethlisberger managed to get to the SB, and only Dilfer and Flacco won it. Obviously, the Broncos, like the Ravens in 2000 or the '85 Bears, won the SB in 2016 with historically great defense.

But, the history of the NFL proves that while a great defensive team can win a SB about once every 10 years, it is never the same team twice, and those teams never repeat. The '85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs, and the 2015 Broncos all won SBs with great defense and not much offense, but none of them ever repeated. The Bears for instance had a great defense throughout the rest of the 80's but never went back until 2006, with none of the same players. They faced the Colts who had Peyton Manning. They had Rex Grossman. 'Nuff said.

Obviously, Elway knows all this. And he also knows that it's easier to pay 1 QB and keep him under contract than it is to keep 11 defenders. In the modern NFL it's a copy cat league and everybody wants to steal your players the minute you have success - just as they did Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. As this past season proved, lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

If you are an AFC team, whatever you do in the regular season, come playoff time, you're going to be facing Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game and you might have to get past both of them - as the Broncos did in 2015.

Are you really going to do that and win multiple SBs with a 7th round draft pick like Trevor Siemian. Elway looks at Siemian and clearly doesn't see an elite QB in the future. He equally obviously remains convinced that Lynch does have that potential.

Virtually everybody else in the NFL would agree. According to Cecil Lammey, the draft guru there is "zero interest" in Trevor Siemian around the league. No trade value whatever. Nobody believes that guy is a future SB winning QB.

Can Lynch succeed? Nobody knows, but Elway sees the writing on the wall. If you want to represent the AFC in the SB you need an elite top 10 QB and preferably a Hall of Fame QB. That is why the speculation continues about Philip Rivers or Tony Romo coming to Denver, despite the fact that neither is likely.

So, really, his only choice is to bring in coaches who can coach up Lynch in the hopes he develops into an elite QB. Trevor Siemian is a place holder. If he's starting, that just means Paxton Lynch hasn't developed to the degree they hope. Because, unlike in other cities where they are just happy to get into the playoffs, Elway is determined to do whatever it takes to win multiple championships.

And that means having an elite QB, whether that is Lynch, or Philip Rivers or some guy he will draft in 2018.

Wait, Canadians call the letter Z "Zed"? Is this true weazel/PAG?

tldr.

I agree.

Originally Posted by Buff

Wait, Canadians call the letter Z "Zed"? Is this true weazel/PAG?

Except in Quebec, presumably; saying, "zed," is probably a hanging offense there.

So now Cugel knows what Elway is thinking?

Originally Posted by chazoe60

So now Cugel knows what Elway is thinking?

Exactly what I was thinking. I agree with your points generally Cugs, but delete the part about what Elway obviously sees/knows... it detracts from what you are saying rather than supporting it.

Originally Posted by chazoe60

So now Cugel knows what Elway is thinking?

He's always known that.

Originally Posted by LawDog

Exactly what I was thinking. I agree with your points generally Cugs, but delete the part about what Elway obviously sees/knows... it detracts from what you are saying rather than supporting it.

It would be an insult to Elway's intelligence if he didn't know at least what some fans know. I had to look up who all the SB teams from the AFC were because I didn't remember them all in order off the top of my head, but I bet Elway knows that stuff automatically.

As for him knowing what all NFL GMs know about it being easier to keep 1 QB under contract than 11 starting defenders - all of whom are convinced they played a key role in the SB victory and want to get paid, he obviously knows this too.

It's like saying "all lawyers know the rules of civil procedure." Well, if they didn't they wouldn't pass the Bar Exam and get licensed, cause they ask about that stuff in the exam. So, all lawyers know those rules, even if they don't use them in their practice. Elway can be presumed to know what all GMs know.

He obviously knows a TON more than most GMs by virtue of being a Hall of Fame QB.

I remember him watching Tim Tebow throwing drill in the off-season. He was standing about 10 feet from Tebow with this grim expression on his face. He didn't say much, but I remember thinking at the time watching him watch Tebow work on his foot-work and over-throwing WRs, that Elway looked like he was thinking "this is not what I want in my QB." And sure enough, next season Tebow was gone, despite winning the Pittsburgh playoff game.

Elway knows exactly what he wants in his QB. For some reason for instance, he wants them tall. That's one reason he drafted Brock Osweiler instead of Russell Wilson, who got drafted in the 3rd round.

Originally Posted by Cugel

He obviously knows a TON more than most GMs by virtue of being a Hall of Fame QB.

That does not follow, at all. Terry Bradshaw was a first ballot HoFer, but "couldn't spell 'cat' if you gave him the 'c' and the 't.'" I agree Elway knows more than most GMs, but not solely by virtue of being a HoF QB (e.g. Elway didn't go to Louisiana Tech, nor spend his retirement as a failed actor, or a talking head like some former players on TV—or radio.... )

Originally Posted by Cugel

Elway knows exactly what he wants in his QB. For some reason for instance, he wants them tall. That's one reason he drafted Brock Osweiler instead of Russell Wilson, who got drafted in the 3rd round.

So his scouting is flawed?

I don't know how else to interpret that.

No one needs the height to see over linemen more than a QB who makes every throw while falling backward BENEATH a lineman.

Originally Posted by slim

So his scouting is flawed?

I don't know how else to interpret that.

He wants a QB with a large shoe size.

Cugel-

You are far too intelligent to quote D-Mac and Alfred while pretending their drivel has any substance or meaning.

Don't ever do that again.

Cugel has some decent points more often than not, I'll give him that.