This week is going to be a circus. Brady vs Manning XVII. The opening line is minus 3.5 and that will probably grow. The talk on radio tonight is pretty clear: The Broncos are in trouble. I'm sure the majority of TV sports network shows and analysts opinions will all pretty much reflect the same. Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champions are going to steamroll the Broncos. Denver and the old MANning don't have a chance.
I'm not necessarily disappointed that Denver won ugly against Pittsburg. I figured it would be a late battle if Ben was able to throw with any accuracy. But had the Broncos blown them out, they might have become the favorite this week. Now they're clearly the underdog at home. I honestly didn't want Denver favored. The Broncos need more focus. I will not take credit away from Pittsburg's defense, which has been playing really great the last half of the season. But Denver did not help themselves in the first half of the game. They did not sustain enough drives and they were not efficient running the ball. Denver dropped too many passes, especially on third down. Sometimes the playcalling was frustrating. Denver likely will not win next week if they cannot execute better. They certainly won't win if they don't come out of the redzone with more TDs than FGs. Not being favored or given much of a chance Sunday should make the entire Broncos feel disrespected. As if you need any further motivation in a playoff game, much less playing New England, a team you already beat this season, perhaps that will further motivate the Broncos and help them focus even more.
I do expect Belichick and Co. will be ready. They will rely on the short/quick passing game and screens. They will do their best to slow the Denver pass rush. But regardless of how effective the Broncos are at pressuring Brady and stalling their drives, the Patriots will score more than three touchdowns. Denver will have to score TDs, not rely on FGs to win the AFC Championship.
One key to Denver winning obviously will be to again avoid turnovers. But to win Sunday will take more than ball protection. Denver cannot play conservative. Physical, yes, but they must be aggressive! They cannot lean on their defense like they did against Pittsburg. The Patriots will be favored due to the perception that the Broncos don't have an offense good enough, or, more specifically, that Manning is no longer able to defeat them. I disagree. Denver and Manning are capable of scoring plenty enough points to win this game. But will they? I don't think Denver's great defense can be the savior in this game, but the Broncos do have a great chance if they play better on offense. Greater focus, better execution and consistency by the offense and the Broncos will beat the Patriots again.