Thread: AFC Team Most Likely to be one-and-done:Denver Broncos

Originally Posted by TimHippo

Not gonna even read.

I don't blame you. There aren't any 3 cone stats in the article.

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

I didn't read the article, but I don't think Billick considers wildcard games as actual "playoff" games. Those are played to get into his version of the playoffs.

He's basically saying he likes any of the 4 teams playing in the wildcard round more than he does Denver. He thinks any of them have a better shot at actually winning a game whereas Denver, not so much.

Horseshit. The team most likely to be one-and-done is the Bengals. They haven't won a playoff game since 1990. They have a ridiculous monkey to get off their back and no other coaching staff has more pressure to win a game. If they lose, holy shit...

Originally Posted by Dapper Dan

I didn't even read this.

Liar liar panties on fire.

Billick is a jackwagon.
It's going to be us and New England in the AFC Championship.
Then we'll show Tom and Bill what fear really is.

***Drops Mic***

I disagree with his assessment due to the use of "toxic differential" as his supporting reason.

Originally Posted by D1g1tal j1m

I disagree with his assessment due to the use of "toxic differential" as his supporting reason.

Do you feel as though he is a 'toxic differential '?

Billick isn't a guy I put a lot of stock in but if I'm writing an article for national consumption I wouldn't rate Denver's chances all that high.

Home field is huge - but with so many narrow wins and large periods of looking awful in nearly every game it's hard to pick this team to make much of a run - even considering the defensive ranking.

But who knows. Wins against the Ravens and Colts were almost gimmes on paper and Denver managed to lose those - odd things happen in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be shocked if we won the SB and I wouldn't be shocked if we lost our first playoff game. We are an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The only thing that would shock me at this point is if we blew someone out, that's just not our style. We prefer giving our fans heart attacks.

Originally Posted by D1g1tal j1m

I disagree with his assessment due to the use of "toxic differential" as his supporting reason.

From reading that, he thinks we would lose to Cincy if we played head to head. Oh wait.

Originally Posted by Slick

I don't blame you. There aren't any 3 cone stats in the article.

My three ice cream-cone time is legendary.

In all seriousness, Lawdog pretty much crushed the analysis of Bill.

The one thing that we need to stop doing, and if we do we will be just fine, is stop being ******* stupid.

Whether it is dumb ass penalties that keep drives alive or stall our own drives, or its turning the ******* ball over, we are killing ourselves we just need to stop being stupid.

Originally Posted by Rick

The one thing that we need to stop doing, and if we do we will be just fine, is stop being ******* stupid.

Whether it is dumb ass penalties that keep drives alive or stall our own drives, or its turning the ******* ball over, we are killing ourselves we just need to stop being stupid.

Not our style.

The Broncos can't be one and done sooner than the KC Chiefs or the Texans, because those teams play each other and one of them has to lose!

So, either the Texans win and the Bengals win and the Texans come here to Denver. Or the Chiefs and Bengals win and the Chiefs come here, or both the Bengals and Steelers win and the Steelers come here.

I'd say the matchup of Broncos v. Chiefs or Broncos v. Texans favors the Broncos.

The matchup of Broncos v. Steelers probably favors the Broncos too at home. The defense will be healthier, the OL will be healed up a bit and so will Manning and Brock.

Secondly, and most importantly, the Broncos are the worst team in the 12-team playoff field in a stat that I put a lot of weight in: toxic differential. In simple terms, the stat combines the team's ability to earn and stop explosion plays while also creating takeaways and limiting turnovers. The Broncos are one of just three teams to qualify for the playoffs with a negative toxic at -4 -- 39 points behind the playoff-leading Bengals at +35. This will haunt Denver, no matter who the opponent is in the Divisional Round.

And yet the Broncos beat both the other top AFC teams, the Patriots and Bengals, at home where they will be playing all their games until the SB.

This "toxic differential" sounds a lot like the "give-away - take-away" ratio, with the addition of big plays (20+ 40+ allowed). Well I can't remember many big plays down the field the Broncos defense has surrendered outside of Talib's covering the wrong receiver in this last game. Mostly when teams have scored TDs on them it's been the normal < 20 yard variety.

(I think Adrian Peterson scored on a long rushing TD too, perhaps you can remember more).

The Broncos are horrible for a top seed in giveaway takeaway because of all the turnovers they have committed, 5 in the game against the Chargers alone. But none of those was on Manning and only 1 on Brock really. The rest were bumbles by the the WRs, and uncharacteristic fumbles by the running backs.

Well, either they turn the ball over in the playoffs or they don't. If they do they will lose for sure. If not they can win against anybody.

The one thing you can say about this year's Broncos is that they always play up-down to the opposition. They haven't blown anybody out, and they've lost to really BAD teams, but they've also beaten 4 of the top playoff teams - Vikings and Packers, Patriots and Bengals. It's like they are unable to concentrate properly on beating up on bad teams. Well, there are no more bad teams left, so it shouldn't be a problem.

I can't see the Broncos looking past any team now, certainly not the Chiefs who humiliated them or the Steelers who beat them on the road and scored 34 points on their defense.

Originally Posted by tomjonesrocks

Billick isn't a guy I put a lot of stock in but if I'm writing an article for national consumption I wouldn't rate Denver's chances all that high.

Home field is huge - but with so many narrow wins and large periods of looking awful in nearly every game it's hard to pick this team to make much of a run - even considering the defensive ranking.

But who knows. Wins against the Ravens and Colts were almost gimmes on paper and Denver managed to lose those - odd things happen in the playoffs.

If Denver were narrowly winning games against bad teams and then losing to good teams then I would be concerned. Style points are meaningless.