Thread: Extra Point/2-Point Conversion Tracking

Given the new extra point rules and the fact that 4 extra points were missed in week 1 (as opposed to 8 the entire season last year) I thought it would be interesting to track the extra point percentage league-wide and the 2-point percentage leaguewide to see if going for two is now the smarter play. I suspect it will be very close but it will be interesting to keep track of. I will update this list week by week. Here is what we have so far.

Here are the stats so far in week 1:

XP: 64/68

2P: 4/6

Given this, this means teams are averaging 0.94 points per extra point attempt and 1.33 points per two point conversion attempt.

Now obviously this is VERY early in the season and a very small sample size. It will take several more weeks of data to come to any real conclusions. One conclusion you can make, after week 1 at least, is that teams are still not going for two as their primary strategy. You have to wonder if that will change if extra points keep getting missed at the rate they are.

Also, even had one fewer two pointer been made this week, it would still have been the more advantageous play, averaging 1 point per attempt as opposed to .94 for extra points. As I said, I will keep this going throughout the year and I am very interested to see where it goes.

Nerd.

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

Nerd.

Oh no doubt! If I'm looking at this, though, you know teams' analytics departments are. Will be very interesting to see if extra points keep being missed and if two point conversions are attempted more often as a result.

But if you use the ratios for the same number of attempts, kicking the field goal is still safer. If you had 68 2-point conversions you'd make roughly 45, which is only .666 points per attempt.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

But if you use the ratios for the same number of attempts, kicking the field goal is still safer. If you had 68 2-point conversions you'd make roughly 45, which is only .666 points per attempt.

No, it would be 1.33. You get two points for a make, remember. For example. 4/6 is .666. That is 8 points on 6 attempts. 8 divided by 6 is 1.33.

45 out of 68 is, again, 66%. Those 45 makes means 90 points scored in 68 attempts. As you can see, that is far more than .66 points per attempt.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

No, it would be 1.33. You get two points for a make, remember. For example. 4/6 is .666. That is 8 points on 6 attempts. 8 divided by 6 is 1.33.

45 out of 68 is, again, 66%. Those 45 makes means 90 points scored in 68 attempts. As you can see, that is far more than .66 points per attempt.

Ok, my math was off. It's still easier to make the extra point, which is what my numbers would say. I still argue if there are more 2 point conversion tries the ratios will drop.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Ok, my math was off. It's still easier to make the extra point, which is what my numbers would say. I still argue if there are more 2 point conversion tries the ratios will drop.

I would agree the ratios will drop slightly. But the question is will the EV drop below that of the extra point. I honestly have no idea what will happen, which is why I'm tracking it. I bet it will be close. I have to imagine once you get a few teams with bad kickers start missing extra points then their coaches will A- Get the itch to go for two more often and B- Be forced to go for 2 to chase the points lost on the missed extra points. So I think we will definitely see the most two point attempts in one season in history this year. So hopefully it will be a good test case to see how the math plays out.

Ideally, the NFL should set this up so that the EV for each decision is fairly equal.

As it sits right now, this issue really highlights how irrationally risk averse NFL coaches are.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

Ideally, the NFL should set this up so that the EV for each decision is fairly equal.

As it sits right now, this issue really highlights how irrationally risk averse NFL coaches are.

Shouldn't you make it so the 2 points is harder to get than the 1 point?

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Shouldn't you make it so the 2 points is harder to get than the 1 point?

Yes. That's exactly what i wrote.

If the EV for each is equal, 2 point conversions would be successful exactly 50% of the percentage of 1 point conversions.

I'm just going to unsubscribe from this thread. My math has been embarrassing.

Final stats for week 1:

XP: 71/75, .946 points per attempt

2P: 4/6, 1.333 points per attempt

Through week 1, the two point conversion is the higher EV play.

Save one game, this was a bad day for two point conversions. Still several extra points missed, though. Here are the stats with two games to go this week:

Extra Points: 69/74 - 93.2% - .93 points per attempt
2-Point Conversions: 3/8 - 37.5% - .75 points per attempt

So this week, the extra point has been the better play. Let's look at the season stats now:

Extra Points: 140/149 - 93.9% - .939 points per attempt
2-Point Conversions: 7/14 - 50% - 1.0 points per attempt

So overall, through almost two whole weeks, two point conversions have been the better play by about .06 points per try.

Some interesting notes:

Pitt actually went for two their first two touchdowns and made both, then went for an extra point on the 3rd one and missed it. We might see them start going for two a bunch given this.

Note from the game above, all 3 two pointers that were made today came from this game. Two from Pitt and one from SF.

With two games still to go this week, there have already been more two pointers attempted this week than in week 1. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

The 5 extra points missed this week is up from 4 last week.

Teams suck at the two point conversation because of where the ball is placed. I honestly think that if the ball were placed one yard forward or backwards it would be easier.

I base this off of my own observations as I suck at math and am too lazy to defend my stance at all via research. This, of course, must mean that I will be that much more rabid about said stance. In fact, I say that if you disagree with me you are a piece of human garbage.

Originally Posted by King87

Teams suck at the two point conversation because of where the ball is placed. I honestly think that if the ball were placed one yard forward or backwards it would be easier.

I base this off of my own observations as I suck at math and am too lazy to defend my stance at all via research. This, of course, must mean that I will be that much more rabid about said stance. In fact, I say that if you disagree with me you are a piece of human garbage.

Don't forget the more words you capitalize, the stronger your argument will be.