No one knows the exact formula, but this guy Nick is usually fairly accurate. It has to do firstly with the AAV of a contract. We let JT walk and he signed one of the larger FA deals, so he should be a 3rd round comp (there is a dollar value for the cut off, but it changes each year). Playing time is also a factor, though again, I'm not sure how exactly since the NFL is secretive about its formula.
Here's a little info.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...st-projections
"Milk is for babies. When you grow up, you have to drink beer" -Arnold
Here's the meat of it:
So if one assumes (since he's the highest paid TE) that his value is a 3rd rounder, what would make it drop? Does he lose money if he's not playing due to injury? Or is it just the playing time part? I apologize if his contract is common knowledge, but I didn't read up on it.All Free Agents Are Not Considered Equal: The NFL makes its determination on what round compensatory players correlate to via a combination of factors: "salary, playing time and postseason honors," per a 2012 press release. The exact formula, again, is not public; however, it's a pretty good bet that the more money a player makes, the higher his compensatory value. In essence: Look for the Detroit Lions to land squarely in the third round next year after losing Ndamukong Suh to the Miami Dolphins.
Why does the NFL do anything? I have no idea. This one is completely mysterious to me, but I guess the less information they gave out, the less people can bitch when they don't get the draft pick they think they deserve.
It's easy to go down a rabbit hole on this - take a look at Over the Cap where Nick writes on this subject. You want some stuff that doesn't make any sense to me? Try this:
FYI, Nick also has a nice breakdown of what the Broncos should be getting next year in comp picks (he is a Bronco fan, besides writing for that other site):Adjusted APY
I knew that playing time was factored into the compensatory formula, but I didn’t know how as AdamJT13 never revealed how he applied that factor. The adjustment that I have found to get most of the picks in the right order is to use the offensive or defensive snap percentages as a coefficient on the actual APY. This adjustment uses 45% of the snaps as a base, in which a player who plays this amount will see no change, and for most players the adjustment will range to -9% (at 0% of the snaps) to +9% (at 90% of the snaps). Jason has noticed in the past that 45% seems to be a notable number for determining playing time benchmarks in contracts in general.
For players who played more than 90% of the snaps, this playing time adjustment will get a 50% bonus, meaning that the maximum increase possible (for someone who played 100% of the snaps) is 16.5%. This added bonus helps to explain how players who were valued exceptionally higher than anticipated, including Zane Beadles (100% of snaps), Mike Mitchell (96.8%), Breno Giacomini (100%), Captain Munnerlyn (98.2%), and Evan Dietrich-Smith (93.5%).
http://in-thinair.com/2015/05/12/201...r-the-broncos/I’ve had Thomas on the cusp of the 3rd/4th round cutoff for quite some time. My current projection of that cutoff at $9,015,149 (an average of the average ranges from 2013-2015 with an adjustment for the rise in the salary cap) has Thomas barely making it into the 3rd. But that could go either way depending on his production in 2015. If the Jaguars get the frequently injured version of Julius Thomas, the Broncos will likely get a 4th for him. But if the Jags get the “it’s so ******* easy!” version, the Broncos should have the very last pick of the 3rd round. (If so, let’s hope it goes much, much better than the last time they had that pick).
Denver got a 3rd for Ian Gold and he was so good that year that the team he signed with cut him.
And then the Broncos went out and ******* resigned him again and moved DJ Williams to SLB after he played well at WLB as a rookie. ******* Ian Gold, gimme a break, would ya?
But I'm over that now, the point is Denver got a 3rd for Ian ******* Gold, they should get as much for JT. Even if he is soft as baby shit.
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Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
Didn't New England get a 3rd for Blount?
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