Thread: Julius Thomas possible injured hand in 1st preseason game

Originally Posted by VonDoom

Damn it, Julius, get back out there!

Nick Korte ‏@nickkorte 19h19 hours ago

The more snaps Julius Thomas misses, the more likely the Broncos only get a 4th round compensatory pick for him in 2016 instead of a 3rd.

I didn't know that, how does that work exactly?

Originally Posted by wayninja

I didn't know that, how does that work exactly?

No one knows the exact formula, but this guy Nick is usually fairly accurate. It has to do firstly with the AAV of a contract. We let JT walk and he signed one of the larger FA deals, so he should be a 3rd round comp (there is a dollar value for the cut off, but it changes each year). Playing time is also a factor, though again, I'm not sure how exactly since the NFL is secretive about its formula.

Originally Posted by VonDoom

No one knows the exact formula, but this guy Nick is usually fairly accurate. It has to do firstly with the AAV of a contract. We let JT walk and he signed one of the larger FA deals, so he should be a 3rd round comp (there is a dollar value for the cut off, but it changes each year). Playing time is also a factor, though again, I'm not sure how exactly since the NFL is secretive about its formula.

Why does the NFL hide there formula with this? I don't know why that's necessary.

Originally Posted by tomjonesrocks

Why does the NFL hide there formula with this? I don't know why that's necessary.

Here's a little info.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...st-projections

Originally Posted by SR

Here's a little info.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...st-projections

Here's the meat of it:

All Free Agents Are Not Considered Equal: The NFL makes its determination on what round compensatory players correlate to via a combination of factors: "salary, playing time and postseason honors," per a 2012 press release. The exact formula, again, is not public; however, it's a pretty good bet that the more money a player makes, the higher his compensatory value. In essence: Look for the Detroit Lions to land squarely in the third round next year after losing Ndamukong Suh to the Miami Dolphins.

So if one assumes (since he's the highest paid TE) that his value is a 3rd rounder, what would make it drop? Does he lose money if he's not playing due to injury? Or is it just the playing time part? I apologize if his contract is common knowledge, but I didn't read up on it.

Originally Posted by tomjonesrocks

Why does the NFL hide there formula with this? I don't know why that's necessary.

Why does the NFL do anything? I have no idea. This one is completely mysterious to me, but I guess the less information they gave out, the less people can bitch when they don't get the draft pick they think they deserve.

Originally Posted by wayninja

Here's the meat of it:



So if one assumes (since he's the highest paid TE) that his value is a 3rd rounder, what would make it drop? Does he lose money if he's not playing due to injury? Or is it just the playing time part? I apologize if his contract is common knowledge, but I didn't read up on it.

It's easy to go down a rabbit hole on this - take a look at Over the Cap where Nick writes on this subject. You want some stuff that doesn't make any sense to me? Try this:

Adjusted APY

I knew that playing time was factored into the compensatory formula, but I didn’t know how as AdamJT13 never revealed how he applied that factor. The adjustment that I have found to get most of the picks in the right order is to use the offensive or defensive snap percentages as a coefficient on the actual APY. This adjustment uses 45% of the snaps as a base, in which a player who plays this amount will see no change, and for most players the adjustment will range to -9% (at 0% of the snaps) to +9% (at 90% of the snaps). Jason has noticed in the past that 45% seems to be a notable number for determining playing time benchmarks in contracts in general.

For players who played more than 90% of the snaps, this playing time adjustment will get a 50% bonus, meaning that the maximum increase possible (for someone who played 100% of the snaps) is 16.5%. This added bonus helps to explain how players who were valued exceptionally higher than anticipated, including Zane Beadles (100% of snaps), Mike Mitchell (96.8%), Breno Giacomini (100%), Captain Munnerlyn (98.2%), and Evan Dietrich-Smith (93.5%).

FYI, Nick also has a nice breakdown of what the Broncos should be getting next year in comp picks (he is a Bronco fan, besides writing for that other site):

I’ve had Thomas on the cusp of the 3rd/4th round cutoff for quite some time. My current projection of that cutoff at $9,015,149 (an average of the average ranges from 2013-2015 with an adjustment for the rise in the salary cap) has Thomas barely making it into the 3rd. But that could go either way depending on his production in 2015. If the Jaguars get the frequently injured version of Julius Thomas, the Broncos will likely get a 4th for him. But if the Jags get the “it’s so ******* easy!” version, the Broncos should have the very last pick of the 3rd round. (If so, let’s hope it goes much, much better than the last time they had that pick).

http://in-thinair.com/2015/05/12/201...r-the-broncos/

Interesting... sounds like based on analysis that Everything has to be smooth sailing all year long for JT for us to get a 3rd, and he may not even play the first game.


We'll get a 4th then!

Originally Posted by wayninja

Interesting... sounds like based on analysis that Everything has to be smooth sailing all year long for JT for us to get a 3rd, and he may not even play the first game.


We'll get a 4th then!

I like the positivity! If we just forget that we COULD get a third for him, we'll be happy with the fourth that we'll probably end up with. And yeah, I don't think that we could go any lower than a fourth, even if he misses the whole season.

Originally Posted by tomjonesrocks

Why does the NFL hide there formula with this? I don't know why that's necessary.

Teams could manipulate it so that other teams got lower draft picks. I think it's far-fetched, but I think that's why. Also why it changes each year.

Denver got a 3rd for Ian Gold and he was so good that year that the team he signed with cut him.

And then the Broncos went out and ******* resigned him again and moved DJ Williams to SLB after he played well at WLB as a rookie. ******* Ian Gold, gimme a break, would ya?

But I'm over that now, the point is Denver got a 3rd for Ian ******* Gold, they should get as much for JT. Even if he is soft as baby shit.

Didn't New England get a 3rd for Blount?

Originally Posted by Dapper Dan

Didn't New England get a 3rd for Blount?

I can't check right now, but I don't think so. They got a 3rd for Talib this past draft, though

Originally Posted by VonDoom

I can't check right now, but I don't think so. They got a 3rd for Talib this past draft, though

Maybe that was it.