Hey Buff, $4, 5-max cash back guaranteed for Sunday NASCAR. Don’t know what the **** I’m doing, but let’s get it. No risk.
Hey Buff, $4, 5-max cash back guaranteed for Sunday NASCAR. Don’t know what the **** I’m doing, but let’s get it. No risk.
We are back! Who you playing this week?
It actually feels a little bit liberating for me to not have to factor in all the guys coming in with great short term form... Or at least maybe feels like the regulars who play DFS gold every week won't have as big of an edge.
I made a few small first round leader bets on Im, Woodland, Scheffler and Harman just because I liked the numbers and those are guys who felt like they were playing good before all hell broke loose.
Scheffler seems like a good FRL bet. Im too. BOB guys are great for that. Get really crazy and go Doc Redman. He was added today and he can get crazy hot. He also can get crazy bad. I bet his odds are high, small bet can pay off.
Yeah, everything I’m looking at is long term form, so who they are as an overall golfer. Webb Simpson and Grillo are high in what I’ve been looking at. I’m interested to see what the touts say tonight, and that will also align chalk. Seems like Rickie might be a low-owned top flight guy.
So I plugged in the stats that one guy I like to listen to said are his major stat categories for the week (which I do with several touts throughout every week, just to see how they match up with mine), and Redman is 38th. He's 62nd in mine.
So, here's the lower-priced guys that are in the top 20 of my stats model: Kuchar, Niemann, Knox, Grillo, Conners, Furyk, Danny Lee, Palmer.
All of these guys have been successful on this course, which I did weigh into my rankings, but only about half of those top guys in the world played in those previous events. Spieth always plays here because of his Texas ties, and he did win when he was on top of the world, but he's been down the last two years. In the last five years between Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson there's one tournament played at Colonial. They simply don't come to this tournament because it's in between what used to be the Players and the U.S. Open and now the PGA and the U.S. Open, and they need a break week. This year, they're all here. That one tournament appearance was Koepka, who finished second. Now, that's a highly anecdotal inference I just made, but it's still worth noting. That said, Rahm, DeChambeau, Xander, Fowler and Im all played last year, and all five missed the cut.
Those low-priced guys above also are good in statistical categories I think matter this week, heavy emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach because that's the largest indicator of guys who can pop, and I'm looking for long-term success in those stat categories this week. Knox is fifth in SG:A relative to the field in his last 100, Conners 6th, Grillo 10th, Furyk 7th, Kuchar 24th, Niemann 14th. Only real outlier there is Danny Lee who is 41st, which is still relatively good.
Now, in any normal tournament, I'm locking and loading all those dudes without hesitation, mixing and matching with the top players I like. Do I do that this week? I don't know.
Interesting mix of dudes who popped there. I'm interested in some Palmer and Grillo - feel like I can never get Kuchar right.
It's a unique dynamic to have all the studs in play with not as much course history -- and then you add in that this course doesn't necessarily require you to be a bomber, and you have a bunch of guys in play who might not be normally in a field of this size.
Might sprinkle in some Steve Stricker and Brian Stuard.
This is such a weird week. The touts, who really do drive ownership, are all pivoting and I think ownership is going to be wacky.
I've only listened to a bit of content so far, so I don't have a good feel for how it's shaping up yet. I think ownership was always going to be more spread out this week than a typical week with zero short term form - it will be very interesting to see where it condenses and why. My guys were speculating that Webb will be one of the highest owned this week.
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