Thread: Draftkings

Originally Posted by Buff

I find myself honing in on DeChambeau and Stenson in my initial builds.

Interesting. I’ve found a way to get DJ, JT and Fleetwood in a lineup, but I don’t know if I trust the 6k guys enough to pull that trigger.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I guess what I'm asking is: should the savvy better have a bias against fan favorites?

It’s solid strategy unless they win.

I definitely have been researching some PM/AM stacks, because Monday that appeared to be when the wind would be the worst (PM Thursday). That shifted as of yesterday to AM/PM and now its back to PM/AM who look to have the advantage.

I believe I will scrap that philosophy altogether.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I guess what I'm asking is: should the savvy better have a bias against fan favorites?

In DFS the fan favorites, or the highest owned players, are known as the chalk. In virtually every DFS contest you'll ever play, you'll be forced to decide whether you want to "eat the chalk" and play the high owned guy, or pivot to a lesser owned player. It's always a challenge, because usually the reason ownership is consolidating around a player is because they have the best odds at a good performance...

In sports like golf and baseball, generally speaking, it's a good idea to "fade the chalk" and use a lesser owned player because the player performances are much more volatile than sports like football and basketball, where outcomes are usually within a more defined range.

Also, as a general rule - you play all of the chalk in cash games where you're just trying to finish in the top half, and you find lesser owned plays for tournaments where you need to differentiate to reach the top.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I guess what I'm asking is: should the savvy better have a bias against fan favorites?

Yes. Public teams etc. they love to bet on Tiger, the Cowboys, the Lakers etc.

When are you going to finalize your lineup MO? Where you leanin?

Originally Posted by Buff

When are you going to finalize your lineup MO? Where you leanin?

Lol, probably at like 2 a.m. with a Boulevard or 2. I have no idea where I’m planting flags at this point.

I love Rose and Casey and made five lineups last night with them in it, eating the chalk and differentiating elsewhere.

Hmmm...am/pm?

I’m probably eating chalk on Rose, for sure, Buff. He’s 12/1 to win, he’s going to be No. 1 in the world if he wins, he’s in good form, he’s a major champion and he’s only $9900.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Hmmm...am/pm?

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

I’m probably eating chalk on Rose, for sure, Buff. He’s 12/1 to win, he’s going to be No. 1 in the world if he wins, he’s in good form, he’s a major champion and he’s only $9900.

I have never felt comfortable enough in executing a weather strategy, mostly because it has never felt clear cut to me on which groups I should be targeting, but I am bad at DFS Golf.

I hear you on Rose - he'll probably be among my highest owned - he seems like almost a lock to be in the Top 20 on Sunday, but he'll also probably be the single highest owned golfer, so you will want to differentiate your other guys.

What's the lowest priced guy you're considering?

Thoughts on Si Woo Kim?

Originally Posted by Buff

I have never felt comfortable enough in executing a weather strategy, mostly because it has never felt clear cut to me on which groups I should be targeting, but I am bad at DFS Golf.

I hear you on Rose - he'll probably be among my highest owned - he seems like almost a lock to be in the Top 20 on Sunday, but he'll also probably be the single highest owned golfer, so you will want to differentiate your other guys.

What's the lowest priced guy you're considering?

How low do you want to go?

I am considering Dean Burmester. 9/12 cuts this year on Euro/PGA (only PGA was WGC Mexico), T12 at Wentworth (which is one of the best Euro tour events, he was T9 a year ago), T30 at Italian. It’s a complete flyer play to get some big salary in.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Thoughts on Si Woo Kim?

I currently have 0% mostly because I like some other guys in that price range better and will be limiting my exposure to that sub ~7400 range... Not sure if he has the upside necessary in such a crowded field at the US Open. This is based on feel more than anything tangible though, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

How low do you want to go?

I am considering Dean Burmester. 9/12 cuts this year on Euro/PGA (only PGA was WGC Mexico), T12 at Wentworth (which is one of the best Euro tour events, he was T9 a year ago), T30 at Italian. It’s a complete flyer play to get some big salary in.

I just have been burned by stars and scrubs too many times in majors, and in the milly maker I'm trying to focus on guys who have legit Top 20 upside. I might be back on the Steve Stricker train.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Thoughts on Si Woo Kim?

He’s been decent recently. Made the last seven cuts in tournaments he’s played. Was second (should’ve won) RBC.