Thread: Draftkings

Originally Posted by chazoe60

Buff, I understand splits are a big deal but how much stock do you put in history between pitcher and bitter regardless of Right on Right etc? For instance Nolan has gone 8-14 against Shields even though it's a R/R matchup so Nolan has to be a good play right? BTW I took Trout out and put in Cargo instead. Cargo is on fire lately and has great numbers against Shields. Thanks for the links, hugely helpful.

I think if they have more than 10 at bats you can use it, IMO. CarGo didn't do much for me last night. I got my points from Rougned Odor.

Originally Posted by chazoe60

Buff, I understand splits are a big deal but how much stock do you put in history between pitcher and bitter regardless of Right on Right etc? For instance Nolan has gone 8-14 against Shields even though it's a R/R matchup so Nolan has to be a good play right? BTW I took Trout out and put in Cargo instead. Cargo is on fire lately and has great numbers against Shields. Thanks for the links, hugely helpful.

I much prefer the Cargo play - L/R matchup against a flyball pitcher who he owns. Only thing working against him is the pitchers park - but hitting numbers are up there this year since they moved the fences in.

Some guys have reverse splits and it's a real thing. So I am always checking and re-checking splits - I'll look at their 2015 splits, and then their 3-year splits to get a feel for what is a short term vs long term trend. You start to get a feel for who does what after a number of months. For instance - Justin Turner of the Dodger is another reverse splits guy who hits righties better. Edwin Encarnacion is another. I think Nolan is a fine play.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

I think if they have more than 10 at bats you can use it, IMO. CarGo didn't do much for me last night. I got my points from Rougned Odor.

BVP is first level analysis. It's good to point you in the right direction - but there are better indicators. I typically look at the pitchers splits first - see who is struggling against righties/lefties, who is in a good pitchers/hitters park. Then I look at Vegas odds - who is favored, which games do we anticipate being higher scoring - if the over/unders are 7 or under the pitchers are likely good targets - 10 and over the hitters are good targets. Since pitchers are always most expensive, my roster construction usually starts with figuring out who my viable options are (On DK, it's often a top-tier guy paired with a middle of the road guy, so you can still afford bats)... So you kind of get a sense for where your hitters and pitchers ought to come from. From there, I start to look at lineups and BVP.

It's when the stars all align that you start to get excited - bad pitcher, favorable L/R split, top-to-middle of the lineup, preferably surrounded by solid hitters.

Another concept you should be familiar with in fantasy baseball is stacking - stats are highly correlated in baseball - which makes sense intuitively. If a guy gets on base and the next guy hits a HR, you get the hitters stats along with the baserunners'. So you will often see guys stack between 2-6 players in the same lineup depending on how good the matchup looks. Numbers bear out that teams with more players stacked from the same team have a higher propensity to score 150+ points than non-stacks. So it's always tricky knowing how many guys to stack from the same team. Often times the teams that win the biggest tournies are 6-player stacks.

Buff, what do you wear when doing fantasy sports?

Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:
P - Colin McHugh
P - Josh Tomlin
C - Derrick Norris
1B - Edwin Encarnacion
2B - Logan Forsythe
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Shawn O'Malley
OF - Kole Calhoun
OF - Carlos Gomez
OF - Odubel Herrera

I'm torn because I'd like to fit in Donaldson but I think the Rays are going against a worse pitcher and Longoria is killing lefties.

Calhoun is on a roll. I almost picked O'Malley last night when I had to backtrack on Coco Crisp not being in the lineup and then needing to shave some payroll to get CarGo.

Well my lineup looks completely different now and my life may be ruined, thanks Buff. Addicting, only word I can think of. Now my lineup is

Happ
Tomlin
Cervelli
Morneau
LaMahieu
Donaldson
Tulo
Cargo
McCutchen
Harper

I'm thinking about throwing a quarter at one of the late games when I get home. Eff you Buff.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

I'm thinking about throwing a quarter at one of the late games when I get home. Eff you Buff.

Can you bet just on games? Not sure if that's what you meant?

Originally Posted by chazoe60

Can you bet just on games? Not sure if that's what you meant?

Nah. They have some night owl contests (west coast) where you pick your lineup from the California games.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Nah. They have some night owl contests (west coast) where you pick your lineup from the California games.

Gotcha.

I wonder when this will go the way of online Poker? I tried to get back on to Poker Stars a year ago or so and there's a disclaimer show all the countries in which you're allowed to live and deposit real money and of course the USA is not on it, land of the free my ass!

Boo yah- Bryce Harper with a HR. Nice. Also Happ has 1 inning pitched and 3Ks. I'll quit updating because that is probably really ******* annoying to everyone else, but it's a nice start for me so I'm stoked.

Originally Posted by chazoe60

I wonder when this will go the way of online Poker? I tried to get back on to Poker Stars a year ago or so and there's a disclaimer show all the countries in which you're allowed to live and deposit real money and of course the USA is not on it, land of the free my ass!

No - because poker is still outlawed and this falls outside of that legislation because it's deemed a skill game... Given the extreme and massive growth - and that it's got partner deals with all the major sports leagues, I don't think the toothpaste can go back in the tube.

Also good call on Harper - I didn't want to start him against Degrom, so his ownership is probably fairly low as well.