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Thread: AFC Playoff Scenarios for 2014

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    Default AFC Playoff Scenarios for 2014

    I thought it would be nice to start the playoff scenarios for 2014.

    Feel free to discuss.

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    Broncos would jump to seed # 1 if Broncos beat Chiefs this Sunday night?

    If Broncos win this Sunday... they should move back to seed # 1 because they beat Dolphins and Chiefs twice. Patriots have lost to Dolphins in week 1 and Chiefs in week 4.

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    I think we are going to get drilled at arrowhead

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    Quote Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven View Post
    Broncos would jump to seed # 1 if Broncos beat Chiefs this Sunday night?

    If Broncos win this Sunday... they should move back to seed # 1 because they beat Dolphins and Chiefs twice. Patriots have lost to Dolphins in week 1 and Chiefs in week 4.
    The Patriots have to lose two games and Denver couldn't lose any before Denver could be in the No. 1 seed. The Patriots have a de facto two game lead because they are 9-2 vs. 8-3 and have the head to head win, which is first tiebreaker.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    The Patriots have to lose two games and Denver couldn't lose any before Denver could be in the No. 1 seed. The Patriots have a de facto two game lead because they are 9-2 vs. 8-3 and have the head to head win, which is first tiebreaker.
    This. Baring a pats total collapse 2 seed is best we can do.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dzone View Post
    I think we are going to get drilled at arrowhead
    Heh. You think so? Raiders beat Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. Broncos can handle the loud crowd. CJ Anderson will dance often because Chiefs are ranked 25th in rush defense. Moreover, Eric Berry is out. Broncos have advantages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    The Patriots have to lose two games and Denver couldn't lose any before Denver could be in the No. 1 seed. The Patriots have a de facto two game lead because they are 9-2 vs. 8-3 and have the head to head win, which is first tiebreaker.
    Green Bay Packers have a big chance to beat Patriots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven View Post
    Green Bay Packers have a big chance to beat Patriots.
    We would still have to finish with more wins than the pats......
    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven View Post
    Green Bay Packers have a big chance to beat Patriots.
    Sure, but the Patriots have to lose two games and Denver can't lose any to gain the No. 1 seed.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Default AFC Playoff Scenarios for 2014

    Remember, if the Pats do get the #1 seed they'll still have to beat whomever they play in the divisional round. That could be KC who beat them, Miami who beat them, or the Steelers or Ravens who typically play well vs the Pats in the playoffs.

    Nothing is guaranteed.


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    New England winning home games—especially in the playoffs—may not be guaranteed, but is as close as the NFL will ever get. We need to win out and have GB and SD show up big when NE plays them on the road. I feel good about Lambeau, but the SD game is just their toughest of 5 straight tough games to end their season, and I don't know how much they'll have left then. At least they should still have something to play for, especially if they win @Baltimore this week, but rooting for SD down the stretch is something of a double-edged sword, because guess whom they host the week after NE?

    Realistically, winning the SB almost certainly requires winning EVERY game between now and then. The way we and they are playing now (i.e. we've lost 2 and nearly 3 of our last 4, including one to a 3-6 team, while they've won 4 straight by 20+ pts, including 3 straight against probable playoff teams) I'm not sure we'd win another Mile High playoff game against them, but a Foxborough playoff would be hopeless. We've never won a playoff game @Belicheat and neither has Manning; this probably isn't the year that changes.

    The good news is winning Sunday would practically clinch the AFCW: The Chiefs would be 2 games back plus we'd have the first tiebreak, so our magic number would be 1, and SDs last 5 are as nightmarish as our first 9 (i.e. Baltimore, NE, us, SF and KC, with 3 of 5 on the road.)

    The bad news is NE is in the situation we were in before playing them: A game up on their closest competition for playoff homefield, holding tiebreaks over ALL rivals. It's hard to overstate that games importance: Even with the Rams loss, we'd be 2 games up on EVERYONE for playoff homefield had we won; since they won, they are. Pity they always get to host such a huge game....
    Oh, valid point. I thought you meant all starters, you should take the time to be more descriptive, don't be shy. Jaded

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    Default ESPNs Playoff Machine's great for total playoff scenarios

    Users can quickly punch in and alter season scenarios and just click on Tiebreaks to explain relevant ones. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    The AFCs bottom line is NE will have homefield and we the other bye unless we or they go in the tank, though the AFCN championship is VERY murky since ALL teams are essentially tied, with Cincy holding a slim margin because 7-3-1 instead of 7-4 like the rest. There's a little wiggle room because they could beat us in a few weeks or someone else could win the division (in which case there'd be no head-to-head tiebreak between us and the AFCN champ, so it would go to conference record, where we have just 1 loss and all AFCN teams have 3+.)

    Otherwise, NE has the lead and tiebreak over everyone, and we have both over everyone BUT NE. The chance of anyone making up an effective 2 game lead with just 5 to play is small.
    Oh, valid point. I thought you meant all starters, you should take the time to be more descriptive, don't be shy. Jaded

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    Our likeliest scenario, if we continue to win the games we should win, is the #2 seed. There are still a lot of variables that go into that, and we'll know more about how we're doing after Sunday. I played out the playoff machine yesterday and that's where I had us.

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    The road to the SB for the AFC goes through Foxboro barring any a complete meltdown by the Pats. I don't even know if I can speculate where we, or the rest of the teams will end up by the end of the season. I thought the Chargers would be breathing down our necks by the looks of the week 3, but they've sort of lost their way with a bunch of injuries to their center's. I would love a #2 seed, obviously #1, but that's way too out of our control for me to consider that being an option. I think we'll be playing KC or Colts in the playoffs. Hope the Bills make the wild card, might be too out of their reach though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tripp View Post
    The road to the SB for the AFC goes through Foxboro barring any a complete meltdown by the Pats. I don't even know if I can speculate where we, or the rest of the teams will end up by the end of the season. I thought the Chargers would be breathing down our necks by the looks of the week 3, but they've sort of lost their way with a bunch of injuries to their center's. I would love a #2 seed, obviously #1, but that's way too out of our control for me to consider that being an option. I think we'll be playing KC or Colts in the playoffs. Hope the Bills make the wild card, might be too out of their reach though.
    The Chargers are only one game behind us and we still have to play in their house. So I wou count them out yet, though their schedule is hard. Bills still have us, Pats and Packers, so they're going nowhere

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