Thread: AFC Playoff Scenarios for 2014

Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven

Green Bay Packers have a big chance to beat Patriots.

...and so did the Colts.
...and so did the Lions.

Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven

Heh. You think so? Raiders beat Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. Broncos can handle the loud crowd. CJ Anderson will dance often because Chiefs are ranked 25th in rush defense. Moreover, Eric Berry is out. Broncos have advantages.

I hope youre right but this game has me as worried as any game this year. If we cant get touchbacks on kickoffs, our special teams are going to get gouged. The chiefs have 10 days to p0repare and as for losing to the raiders, every road team loses on thursday

I bet we wind up playing the Colts and The Patriots?

Originally Posted by Dzone

I hope youre right but this game has me as worried as any game this year. If we cant get touchbacks on kickoffs, our special teams are going to get gouged. The chiefs have 10 days to p0repare and as for losing to the raiders, every road team loses on thursday

Thankfully, we don't have Dainty Hall or even McCluster to worry about. Knile Davis is okay but he's not in that category.

I doubt Oakland nor Buffalo can beat us at Mile High, so even if we lost ALL THREE others, SD would have to beat us and 2/4 of the other monsters they have left, also hard to imagine since 3/5 are on the road. And they'd STILL lose to us on tiebreaks:

1st tiebreak (i.e. head-to-head) is already out of reach (because we beat them; beating them again on the road in 3 weeks would give us an effective 3 game lead, so that's a must-win for them)

2nd tiebreak (division recod) is nearly out of reach, and will be if we win or they lose ANY division game (e.g. this week @Arrowhead or at home vs. Oakland) because we've already won 3 and they've lost 2.

3rd tiebreak (i.e. common opponents) would be BARELY in reach if we win home games vs. Oakland and Buffalo: We'd be guaranteed 8+ wins, and SD has 3 losses, so they'd have to win out and hope we lost our other 3 (in which case they wouldn't need a tiebreak, because they'd have a better overall record.)

4th tiebreak (i.e. conference opponents) would be in reach, but only if we lost 3/5 to end the season (giving us 5 conference losses) and SD won 4/5 (giving them 4 conference losses.)

Remember, all these scenarios assume ANY combination of Denver/SD W/Ls includes them beating us in SD; otherwise, it's all but impossible for them to beat us for the division crown, since we'd have an effective 3 game lead, and there's only 5 games left: At that point, our magic number's 1, and SD must win and hope we lose ALL other remaining games. Yet even if they beat us in their house, winning the division may be mathematically possible, but is VERY logically improbable. Run the Playoff Machine with every plausible scenario and see how many ways SD wins the AFCW: Precious few are remotely likely.

This week @Arrowhead's a much bigger deal; they're as close behind as SD (same overall, division, common and conference losses,) so a win there would put us another game up on them AND put the first two tiebreaks out of reach for BOTH them and SD, as well as adding to our win totals for the 3rd and 4th tiebreaks. Hopefully our offensive line realizes they need more than one solid half to silence critics after multiple SEASONS of awful play. But nothing short of 2 NE losses gives us a shot at playoff homefield whatever we do, and division title's are "just too shabby."

Originally Posted by HORSEPOWER 56

Remember, if the Pats do get the #1 seed they'll still have to beat whomever they play in the divisional round. That could be KC who beat them, Miami who beat them, or the Steelers or Ravens who typically play well vs the Pats in the playoffs.

Nothing is guaranteed.

At this point I just want the division win and the 2 seed, I think the 1 is out of reach for now. Like you said the matchups the 1 seed might have could be brutal if things keep going the way they are. A 2 seed with a first round bye is fine by me.

I'm less worried about whom we'd face at home as #2 seed (especially since that's impossible to know before 1) seedings and 2) wildcard games are final) than ending up in an AFCCG @NE. I know the NFL's littered with horror stories of one-and-done #1 seeds, but #1 seeds losing Conference Championship Games are decidedly more rare. So are NE home losses, especially in the playoffs. But it is what it is now; we'll just have to keep winning through February—wherever—but in a little over a month that'll be true for everyone. We beat the #1 seed on the road en route to our first championship, so it CAN be done.

Our best bet for the #1 seed is:

a) win out while New England loses two games.
b) win the AFC West but lose one additional game while New England loses two games and one of the AFC North teams besides Cincy wins out to take the AFC North. In that scenario, NE, Denver and Pit/Bal/Cle are in a three-way tie with the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) not relevant so the next tiebreaker comes to conference record which Denver should win.

Both scenarios seem implausible but that's how we can get the #1 seed.

The second scenario should note NEs conference record is only nominally worse: They've completed more conference games, so have 1 more loss, but equal wins. Consequently, they have an NFC game left, and losing it wouldn't help us in tiebreaks, but ALL ours are vs. AFC teams, so ANY loss WOULD affect tiebreaks. Thus if we won 4/5 and they 3/5, but one of their losses were @GB, we'd still be even on conference tiebreak, which the AFCN Champ would probably lose first (2/3 non-Cincy teams have 4 conference losses) leaving us and NE to start the tiebreak procedure over, and they'd still win on head-to-head.

We've probably already lost playoff homefield for good, but ANY more losses effectively clinch it for NE: There's no way we, Cincy nor Indy make up 3 games on them with <5 to play. Ultimatey, there's probably a good reason they hold head-to-head tiebreaks over ALL other AFC division leaders (though it sure as Hell helps that they got to host 2/3; I call BS on THAT supposed random-yet-perennial scenario.)

Originally Posted by Dzone

I hope youre right but this game has me as worried as any game this year. If we cant get touchbacks on kickoffs, our special teams are going to get gouged. The chiefs have 10 days to p0repare and as for losing to the raiders, every road team loses on thursday

Told you so! I was right! CJ Anderson was dancing and having fun at the Arrowhead Stadium. Our defense looked sharp tonight!

So, Broncos won tonight and Broncos are tied with Patriots in the playoff picture. They are 9-3. I know Patriots beat us and they have tie-breaker. However, should we root for Chargers next Sunday against Patriots? Broncos would jump back to seed # 1 if they win over Bills and Patriots lose to San Diego?

Originally Posted by Joel

The second scenario should note NEs conference record is only nominally worse: They've completed more conference games, so have 1 more loss, but equal wins. Consequently, they have an NFC game left, and losing it wouldn't help us in tiebreaks, but ALL ours are vs. AFC teams, so ANY loss WOULD affect tiebreaks. Thus if we won 4/5 and they 3/5, but one of their losses were @GB, we'd still be even on conference tiebreak, which the AFCN Champ would probably lose first (2/3 non-Cincy teams have 4 conference losses) leaving us and NE to start the tiebreak procedure over, and they'd still win on head-to-head.

We've probably already lost playoff homefield for good, but ANY more losses effectively clinch it for NE: There's no way we, Cincy nor Indy make up 3 games on them with <5 to play. Ultimatey, there's probably a good reason they hold head-to-head tiebreaks over ALL other AFC division leaders (though it sure as Hell helps that they got to host 2/3; I call BS on THAT supposed random-yet-perennial scenario.)

All that worrying...

Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven

So, Broncos won tonight and Broncos are tied with Patriots in the playoff picture. They are 9-3. I know Patriots beat us and they have tie-breaker. However, should we root for Chargers next Sunday against Patriots? Broncos would jump back to seed # 1 if they win over Bills and Patriots lose to San Diego?

I'll root for San Diego next week. I enjoyed the heck out of Brady launching sideline F-bombs as the Pack ran out the clock on him and would enjoy a repeat of that even if it is Phyllis inflicting the pain. I have confidence we can defeat the Chargers for the division title which means we can get back the #1 seed if the Patriots lose again.

Seriously, the biggest threat standing between the Broncos and another Super Bowl is a return trip to Foxboro so I'll root for anything (other than us losing) that prevents that scenario.

Originally Posted by OrangeHoof

...and so did the Colts.
...and so did the Lions.

I was right.

So... Chargers and Dolphins have chance to beat Patriots, too. Therefore, I am going to root for Chargers this Sunday for once. Broncos could get back to seed # 1 and earn 2 home-field advantages in the playoff picture. GO BRONCOS!

Originally Posted by Joel

New England winning home games—especially in the playoffs—may not be guaranteed, but is as close as the NFL will ever get.

Tell that to the Baltimore Ravens.

We need to win out and have GB and SD show up big when NE plays them on the road. I feel good about Lambeau, but the SD game is just their toughest of 5 straight tough games to end their season, and I don't know how much they'll have left then. At least they should still have something to play for, especially if they win @Baltimore this week, but rooting for SD down the stretch is something of a double-edged sword, because guess whom they host the week after NE?

San Diego has almost ZERO chance to win the Division and the Chiefs just lost all hope. Chargers are 2-2 in the Division and Denver is 4-0. Supposing the Chargers beat the Broncos, the worst the Broncos are going to do is 5-1 in the division (their last division matchup is against the Raiders at home which is as close to a W as it gets in the NFL).

The Best the Chargers can do is 4-2. Even if they finished with the same record, they lose the tie-breaker. Denver just has to beat the Bills at home and win @Cincinnati and they finish 12-4 or 13-3 and have the #2 seed.

They need to win out and hope N.E. drops another game to have the #1 seed 13-3 versus 12-4. That's the only way that happens.

As for going into N.E. and winning that looks daunting, but remember the 2005 playoffs? Denver was happy because the Steelers knocked off the Colts so the Broncos didn't have to travel to Indy and face Peyton Manning for the AFC Championship game? The home team doesn't always win. Same thing happened to the Pats in 2012. They were ecstatic when the Ravens knocked off the Broncos so they had the home field advantage.

That didn't work out that well either, since the Ravens thrashed them.

For the Broncos to beat the Pats they need to be able to keep running the ball effectively, and for Peyton to have a better game. They will be getting Talib and Woodyard back on defense and J.Thomas back on offense.

Losing J. Thomas was key tonight because Jacob Tamme dropped a sure TD pass in the end zone that Thomas would certainly have caught. If he got that pass it's 21-0 in the 2nd quarter and the game is over at half-time.