Thread: AFC Playoff Scenarios for 2014

Originally Posted by Cugel

Tell that to the Baltimore Ravens.



San Diego has almost ZERO chance to win the Division and the Chiefs just lost all hope. Chargers are 2-2 in the Division and Denver is 4-0. Supposing the Chargers beat the Broncos, the worst the Broncos are going to do is 5-1 in the division (their last division matchup is against the Raiders at home which is as close to a W as it gets in the NFL).

The Best the Chargers can do is 4-2. Even if they finished with the same record, they lose the tie-breaker. Denver just has to beat the Bills at home and win @Cincinnati and they finish 12-4 or 13-3 and have the #2 seed.

They need to win out and hope N.E. drops another game to have the #1 seed 13-3 versus 12-4. That's the only way that happens.

As for going into N.E. and winning that looks daunting, but remember the 2005 playoffs? Denver was happy because the Steelers knocked off the Colts so the Broncos didn't have to travel to Indy and face Peyton Manning for the AFC Championship game? The home team doesn't always win. Same thing happened to the Pats in 2012. They were ecstatic when the Ravens knocked off the Broncos so they had the home field advantage.

That didn't work out that well either, since the Ravens thrashed them.

For the Broncos to beat the Pats they need to be able to keep running the ball effectively, and for Peyton to have a better game. They will be getting Talib and Woodyard back on defense and J.Thomas back on offense.

Losing J. Thomas was key tonight because Jacob Tamme dropped a sure TD pass in the end zone that Thomas would certainly have caught. If he got that pass it's 21-0 in the 2nd quarter and the game is over at half-time.

Woodyard?! He is a Titan now. You mean # 59 Danny Trevathan?

If Miami wins the Monday-nighter at the Jets, they will leap past the others into the #6 seed.

Miami, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland would all be tied, technically, at 7-5.

Miami would have the divisional tiebreaker with Buffalo (3-1 division record vs 3-2)

Baltimore would have the divisional tiebreaker over Pittsburgh and Cleveland due to head-to-head (BAL 2-1, PIT 2-2, CLE 1-2)

So then it becomes a three-way tie between Kansas City, Miami and Baltimore which Miami wins based on conference record (MIA 6-3, KC 5-4, BAL 3-5).

It should be noted that Pittsburgh's conference record is solid (6-3) so if it were to break free of Baltimore and Cleveland, they would be in good tiebreaker position against AFC teams from other divisions.

Originally Posted by Magnificent Seven

So, Broncos won tonight and Broncos are tied with Patriots in the playoff picture. They are 9-3. I know Patriots beat us and they have tie-breaker. However, should we root for Chargers next Sunday against Patriots? Broncos would jump back to seed # 1 if they win over Bills and Patriots lose to San Diego?

Yes. Obviously this is assuming we keep winning games, but if we beat the Bills and the Chargers beat the Pats, we would be in great shape. Mind you, I don't think the Pats lose two in a row. But a Chargers loss next week is nearly irrelevant for us; in order to have any shot at a #1 seed, we'll need to beat the Chargers anyway, and whether they win or lose next week, we can win the division by beating them on 12/14. They could really help us out next week, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

First seed and home field throughout the playoffs?

Nobody really thinks the Pats are going to lose 2 in a row, but stranger things have happened. Even their home game against Miami is not automatic. Look at Denver's game against the Dolphins! They have a great pass-rush and Ryan Tannehill is doing really well with 20 TDs & only 6 INTs. Don't count Miami completely out. They'd have to win out to get in the playoffs, but that's not impossible either.

AFC Scenarios:

INDIANAPOLIS can clinch the AFC South division title with:
1) A WIN + Houston loss

DENVER can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) A WIN + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss + Cleveland loss + Houston loss or tie + KC loss
2) A WIN + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss + Cleveland loss + Houston loss or tie + SD loss + KC tie

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

The Playoff Projector is back at ESPN and elsewhere:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Choose a starting point then tweak the wins and losses over the next four weeks to see what happens if this then that. Lots of extremely interesting scenarios.

Originally Posted by OrangeHoof

The Playoff Projector is back at ESPN and elsewhere:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Choose a starting point then tweak the wins and losses over the next four weeks to see what happens if this then that. Lots of extremely interesting scenarios.

I love this thing!

High Fives! Denver Broncos jumped back to # 1 seed in the playoff picture for now. We gotta root for San Diego. If Patriots lose tonight... Broncos could stay above Patriots in the playoff picture.

The SD game last night was the last realistic chance for the Pats to lose a game at the end of this year. With that out of the way, it seems very likely that the Pats finish as the #1 seed, so we should all prepare for that scenario.

As far as we're concerned, we're in very nice shape for the #2 seed and a bye week to rest up, which would be an even bigger help than usual this year with our early bye. We can split the next two road games, beat the Raiders at home and finish 12-4, which would guarantee us a 2 seed at this point no matter what anyone else does. Of course, I'd rather just win them all, but it might not make any difference to our playoff positioning. If we're going to win one, it might as well be this week at SD so we can wrap up the division in grand style, rather than having to win at Cincy to stay ahead of the other division leaders.

Originally Posted by VonDoom

The SD game last night was the last realistic chance for the Pats to lose a game at the end of this year. With that out of the way, it seems very likely that the Pats finish as the #1 seed, so we should all prepare for that scenario.

As far as we're concerned, we're in very nice shape for the #2 seed and a bye week to rest up, which would be an even bigger help than usual this year with our early bye. We can split the next two road games, beat the Raiders at home and finish 12-4, which would guarantee us a 2 seed at this point no matter what anyone else does. Of course, I'd rather just win them all, but it might not make any difference to our playoff positioning. If we're going to win one, it might as well be this week at SD so we can wrap up the division in grand style, rather than having to win at Cincy to stay ahead of the other division leaders.

Of course I'd prefer to be the #1 seed and homefield - but as a fan it's almost more enjoyable to root for an underdog. Coming in as a prohibitive favorite the last couple seasons has been really nerve wracking. That Baltimore playoff game was absolute misery, even before the Rahim Moore play.

Originally Posted by Buff

Of course I'd prefer to be the #1 seed and homefield - but as a fan it's almost more enjoyable to root for an underdog. Coming in as a prohibitive favorite the last couple seasons has been really nerve wracking. That Baltimore playoff game was absolute misery, even before the Rahim Moore play.

I remember my stomach being in knots before that game, and apparently I had good reason.

That is the one silver lining if we make it to an AFCCG against NE this year - everyone will expect us to lose this time, so maybe we can surprise people.

Originally Posted by VonDoom

The SD game last night was the last realistic chance for the Pats to lose a game at the end of this year. With that out of the way, it seems very likely that the Pats finish as the #1 seed, so we should all prepare for that scenario.

As far as we're concerned, we're in very nice shape for the #2 seed and a bye week to rest up, which would be an even bigger help than usual this year with our early bye. We can split the next two road games, beat the Raiders at home and finish 12-4, which would guarantee us a 2 seed at this point no matter what anyone else does. Of course, I'd rather just win them all, but it might not make any difference to our playoff positioning. If we're going to win one, it might as well be this week at SD so we can wrap up the division in grand style, rather than having to win at Cincy to stay ahead of the other division leaders.

New England still has to play the Bills and the Dolphins. Those are by no means guarantees. New England lost their way out of the #1 seed by losing late in the season to Miami last year. And the Bills defense is good enough to beat anybody if their offense doesn't suck it up. I'm by no means saying a NE loss is likely, but it's certainly not a long shot. But even if New England clinches the #1 seed, Denver can still beat them in New England. They may be tougher at home, but they're not invincible.

Originally Posted by pulse

New England still has to play the Bills and the Dolphins. Those are by no means guarantees. New England lost their way out of the #1 seed by losing late in the season to Miami last year. And the Bills defense is good enough to beat anybody if their offense doesn't suck it up. I'm by no means saying a NE loss is likely, but it's certainly not a long shot. But even if New England clinches the #1 seed, Denver can still beat them in New England. They may be tougher at home, but they're not invincible.

The game they lost against Miami in this situation last year was in Miami. I think that's a whole different ballgame in Foxboro. The Bills game is the last game of the season, again in Foxboro, and the Bills are likely out of it at that point. In between there, they travel to play the Jets. I pulled hard for them to win that game in Foxboro earlier this year, but this is a Jets team that's given up by now.

Now, anything can happen, as you say, but it's very unlikely that NE loses another game, and I think our chances of the one seed are pretty slim. I just get this sense that we're on a collision course with them again, but this time in their stadium in the AFCCG.

The best scenario I can come up with for NE losing in the playoffs is if the Ravens or Steelers are there at 4/5/6, because I think those teams (especially the Ravens) are not at all intimidated by the Pats. We would probably get the Colts in this scenario, which I can live with.

If Miami Dolphins beat Patriots this Sunday... Broncos can lock the seed # 1 after they beat San Diego. Broncos have easy games after week 15. (Bengals and Raiders)