Thread: OZ is sad.

Originally Posted by Joel

Who's asking him to make a SB run? Only way anyone will ask that is if Manning retires, in which case Ozs next contract is in a radically different context. Otherwise, I believe we're talking about some 6-10 or worse team offering him a multi-million dollar contract and a chance to a be savior starter rather than be a sideline spectator at Broncos games for at or near league minimum. That's pretty plausible; I doubt he'll a contract as huge as Flynn, Cassell or others got, but there's a good chance some team bad enough to be desperate for even a POTENTIAL starter but not bad enough for a top draft pick will beat our offer.

Seriously, just how much do folks think WE'LL offer Oz in an offseason where we must find a way to pay the Thomas Twins, Chris Harris Jr., Potroast and Moore, with Von Millers next contract looming? Which one of those quality starters would ya'll give up for guy who's thrown 20 NFL passes and hopefully never throws half that many next year? SOMEONE will beat our offer to Oz, if only because it won't be much.

"Can anyone ever name a situation in the NFL where a veteran QB who has never played a meaningful snap all of a sudden gets a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million andf is being asked to come in and be the immediate starter? I don't know I'm asking......

I can't think of one (not that that proves none has) but doubt anyone offers Oz $15 million. Half that from a desperate team's plausible though; what's NOT plausible is that Oz joins DT, Julius Thomas, and Chris Harris in asking for that kind of money and we reject one of those key starters to keep our career benchwarmer. The Pack gave up a 1st round pick for a one-year benchwarmer named Brett Favre, and the '49ers gave up a couple top picks for a two-year flame out named Steve Young. I know that's draft picks rather than cap space, but it's the same principle.

Originally Posted by Joel

I can't think of one (not that that proves none has) but doubt anyone offers Oz $15 million. Half that from a desperate team's plausible though; what's NOT plausible is that Oz joins DT, Julius Thomas, and Chris Harris in asking for that kind of money and we reject one of those key starters to keep our career benchwarmer. The Pack gave up a 1st round pick for a one-year benchwarmer named Brett Favre, and the '49ers gave up a couple top picks for a two-year flame out named Steve Young. I know that's draft picks rather than cap space, but it's the same principle.

What is your % prognosis on Osweiler getting the opportunity to replace Manning in Denver, or not getting the opportunity because he either signs with another team, or another team comes in and trades a relatively high pick for him? Let's just go ahead, cut therough the BS, and call it for what it is.

It's hard to put a precise number on it; there's a lot of variable and intangibles—but I'd say there's a 70-80% chance Oz starts for someone else next year. Put yourself in his shoes:

Someone offers starting job at $3 million/yr for 3 years with a $6 million signing bonus: That's right at $10 million in your pocket Day One PLUS a starters chance to prove you're as good as you think and renegotiate a MUCH bigger contract than the remaining $5 million the new team would gladly pay to keep you. Would you turn that down for cap-strapped Denvers offer: $750,000 (the minimum for players with 4-6 years experience) and a promise you'll compete for the job whenever Manning retires? Bearing in mind you'll be 30 in 4 years, so the clock's ticking on your SOLE chance to land a massive NFL QB contract.

Even for the best QBs with the best teammates, SBs are hard to come by—just ask Manning. But money in the bank is just that. If we had more cap flexibility and weren't in Win ere It's Too Late Mode, things might be different: But we don't and are, so that's where the Broncos (for the moment including Oz) are. 3:1 odds he's Brock Elsewhere in 2015.

Oh, and if it needs to be said: This all assumes Manning plays in 2015, which I personally consider increasingly unlikely. If he hangs it up, I'm sure Oz would take our $10 mil up front and TC starter spot as soon as anyones, sooner if we can re-sign the Thomases. I wouldn't know how to feel about that; I still expect little from Oz for the first year or two he spends knocking off a TON of rust, but in the improbable event we rebuilt our line and won a SB the first season Oz started, it'd unfairly make Manning look like a bum to most folks, who'd just assume Manning made our old line look bad (even though the opposite's true.)

Originally Posted by Joel

Who's asking him to make a SB run? Only way anyone will ask that is if Manning retires, in which case Ozs next contract is in a radically different context. Otherwise, I believe we're talking about some 6-10 or worse team offering him a multi-million dollar contract and a chance to a be savior starter rather than earn at or near league minimum to be a sideline spectator at Broncos games. That's plausible; I doubt he gets what Flynn, Cassell or others got, but there's a good chance some team bad enough to be desperate for even a POTENTIAL starter but not bad enough for a top draft pick will beat our offer.

Seriously, just how much do folks think WE'LL offer Oz in an offseason where we must find a way to pay the Thomas Twins, Chris Harris Jr., Potroast and Moore, with Von Millers next contract looming? Which one of those quality starters would ya'll give up for a guy who's thrown 20 NFL passes and hopefully never throws half that many next year? SOMEONE will beat our offer to Oz, if only because it won't be much.

Why would you take a chump change job with a team that's drowning, knowing full well that Peyton manning is going to retire soon, and you get to take his spot with some of the most amazing receivers in the nfl? It sounds like career suicide

Originally Posted by Joel

It's hard to put a precise number on it; there's a lot of variable and intangibles—but I'd say there's a 70-80% chance Oz starts for someone else next year. Put yourself in his shoes:

Someone offers starting job at $3 million/yr for 3 years with a $6 million signing bonus: That's right at $10 million in your pocket Day One PLUS a starters chance to prove you're as good as you think and renegotiate a MUCH bigger contract than the remaining $5 million the new team would gladly pay to keep you. Would you turn that down for cap-strapped Denvers offer: $750,000 (the minimum for players with 4-6 years experience) and a promise you'll compete for the job whenever Manning retires? Bearing in mind you'll be 30 in 4 years, so the clock's ticking on your SOLE chance to land a massive NFL QB contract.

Who's going to offer him a starting job? WHo's going to offer a veteran backup who has never played a meaningful snap, ever, a contract with $6million signing bonus and a starting spot. I'm sorry I think that's absolutely ridiculous. When has any organization in the NFL offered a contract like that to a veteran QB who has never played a meaningful snap? But somehow were supposed to sit here and think that Oz is "special"?

The only plausible scenario I see is he gets offered a very modest contract from teams looking for a QB (and likely draft an early one), to come in and compete for a starting spot. And even then I see Denver re-signing him, with a better opportunity to start and a better deal if they even want him.

I think it's more like 80% that if he isn't back in Denver it's because Denver didn't feel they want to invest any further in him. Than it's like, big deal anyways.

Originally Posted by Pudge

Why would you take a chump change job with a team that's drowning, knowing full well that Peyton manning is going to retire soon, and you get to take his spot with some of the most amazing receivers in the nfl? It sounds like career suicide

You don't. And to spin off even further of your comment, he already knows the system in place for Denver. That only allows him to be more successful sooner and get an earlier big contract.

Originally Posted by Joel

but there's a good chance some team bad enough to be desperate for even a POTENTIAL starter but not bad enough for a top draft pick will beat our offer.

No there's not, the only way that Oz gets picked up by another team is if Denver cuts him. No team is going to actively pursue a QB who has not started a game in the NFL. Its just not gonna happen no matter how much you may either wish it does or believe it will. Its not going to happen. There are far too many backup QB's in the league who have far more game time experience that a team will look at over a guy who hasnt started a NFL game. Again, its not going to happen.

The other reason why Oz wont be "bought" out by another team is the Denver drafted Oz in the 2nd round for a reason. He was drafted to be groomed to take over for Peyton when he retires. If Denver was just looking for a "backup" to fill in for Manning if hurt or to kill games they could easily went after some schmuck on the open market and used the 2nd round draft pick on another need. Do you really believe for a second Joel/Cugel that Elway is a complete moron to draft a QB that high, have him sit and learn from one of the best in the game, only to either cut him or let some team (in your mind) pay him $15 million without the Broncos even seeing what he has themselves? I mean really? Have you not learned anything that Elway has done since coming into his role with the Broncos? If the Broncos dont at the very least see what Oz has after taking him when they did i will lose all faith in them because that would be beyond moronic as a GM to do. There were plenty of guys in FA that he could of picked up cheap to backup Manning. The whole idea was to draft a QB, let him learn from Manning, and then allow him to take over once he retires. Whether or not Oz is the answer no one knows, but the Broncos will not know that until they have seen him at least play a year after learning from Peyton. Bank on it.

I'm with North, the Broncos have been plotting the Manning-Osweiler transition since they drafted Osweiler. I'm sure there's contingencies for losing one or both and every scenario in between, but the biggest threat to losing Os is some team giving him an offer he can't refuse and the Broncos can't match. Having said all that, if a team wanted to steal Os from the Broncos signing him to a $15/per contract would be the equivalent to bringing a bazooka to rob a convenience store.

Originally Posted by silkamilkamonico

Originally Posted by Joel

Who's asking him to make a SB run? Only way anyone will ask that is if Manning retires, in which case Ozs next contract is in a radically different context. Otherwise, I believe we're talking about some 6-10 or worse team offering him a multi-million dollar contract and a chance to a be savior starter rather than be a sideline spectator at Broncos games for at or near league minimum. That's pretty plausible; I doubt he'll a contract as huge as Flynn, Cassell or others got, but there's a good chance some team bad enough to be desperate for even a POTENTIAL starter but not bad enough for a top draft pick will beat our offer.

Seriously, just how much do folks think WE'LL offer Oz in an offseason where we must find a way to pay the Thomas Twins, Chris Harris Jr., Potroast and Moore, with Von Millers next contract looming? Which one of those quality starters would ya'll give up for guy who's thrown 20 NFL passes and hopefully never throws half that many next year? SOMEONE will beat our offer to Oz, if only because it won't be much.

"Can anyone ever name a situation in the NFL where a veteran QB who has never played a meaningful snap all of a sudden gets a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million andf is being asked to come in and be the immediate starter? I don't know I'm asking......

The only one I can think of even close is when Houston traded for Schaub but he'd started a couple games for Vick that year when he was hurt. But it was a trade, so it was more like the Cassel situation.

Originally Posted by Pudge

Lol, mine was playing along with your hypothetical situation. No one's paying starter money for a backup. I think there is going to be a few mediocre proven quarterbacks available for desperate teams who are just trying to string together a few wins to keep their jobs. Mike Vick, even Mark Sanchez has led teams to the afc championship

If you think OZ is "a career backup" and not a potential franchise QB then you don't sign him at all. What I suggest is that some team will convince themselves that he could be a quality starter for them and be willing to pay him to come in and do a job for them. For an example of this go back and watch the 2007 Chiefs edition of Hard Knocks. Was it really realistic that Damon Huard could ever really be a quality starter for the Chiefs? Turns out, no. But they had to try something. It (predictably) didn't work out, and next season Herm Edwards and his coaching staff were fired.

And Brock is a lot better probability than someone like Damon Huard (or his current equivalent scrub) for saving someone's job.

Originally Posted by Cugel

If you think OZ is "a career backup" and not a potential franchise QB then you don't sign him at all. What I suggest is that some team will convince themselves that he could be a quality starter for them and be willing to pay him to come in and do a job for them. For an example of this go back and watch the 2007 Chiefs edition of Hard Knocks. Was it really realistic that Damon Huard could ever really be a quality starter for the Chiefs? Turns out, no. But they had to try something. It (predictably) didn't work out, and next season Herm Edwards and his coaching staff were fired.

And Brock is a lot better probability than someone like Damon Huard (or his current equivalent scrub) for saving someone's job.

And Huard was signed for $3.75 million.