Thread: Forcasting: Rookie of the week- Bradley Roby

I have a good feeling about Roby this week. I think he may get 2 picks, possibly one returned and possibly even a sack. I know last year that rivers picked on webster quite a bit as a rook. I fully expect that to happen again this week. Rivers is on fire and Roby is a rookie. Rivers will get his no doubt.

That said, I think roby will bait rivers and nail him a few times. Roby is good at man up coverage but not amazing. He needs a second to make his break and recover. Rivers, will accurate and a solid QB overall, does not throw his guys open as much as he does hit them when they are open. There is a difference. He does not quite have that anticipation that Peyton does. Because of this I think rivers will throw to the open guy giving Roby that moment to get in and make the pick.

I also think that our pass rush will force rivers to force a few balls like he always does. Rivers usually throws at our backup dbs when pressured, Tony Carter ringing some bells.


Roby is balling right now. Not quite on Verrett or Fullers level yet but he is coming along greatly and this will be his rookie of the week week.

I think you're right that Roby has a good game. How much he has to cover Gates may have a lot to do with how well he shows. As long as he tackles well and holds Gates to minimal yards per catch, I'll call that a win for that matchup.

Sunday was the closest Roby's come to a bad game in an oustanding rookie season so far: Kaep picked on him some, with some success, and Rivers is a FAR better and more savvy passer than Kaep. Rivers has made a career of passes to Gates and dump offs to Tomlinson because he never had a solid WR corps until now. The best was Keenan McCardell or Vincent Jackson, and I think he only had one season with both. Scan SDs leading receivers each year he's played and it's nearly always Gates and Tomlinson; Floyd's been there a while, but smart money says Rivers is making him look good now, not the reverse.

Roby's looked really good, and is probably more attractive than Talib or Harris. It could also depend on whether we use much dime to deal with how many good WRs SD has along with Gates now. If so, I'd target Webster rather than any of our other CBs, but that carries risks, too, because he's a good young CB; Rivers still has the edge though. I'm really hoping we can consistently get to him fast enough with 5 rushers to force bad throws and create picks for all our CBs; we can't spare anyone from coverage with all SDs legit receiving threats.

Hopefully we can protect Manning from the blitzes THEY'LL be forced to run with half their starting secondary out, and play SDs ball control game against their strictly average run D.

Originally Posted by Joel

Sunday was the closest Roby's come to a bad game in an oustanding rookie season so far: Kaep picked on him some, with some success, and Rivers is a FAR better and more savvy passer than Kaep. Rivers has made a career of passes to Gates and dump offs to Tomlinson because he never had a solid WR corps until now. The best was Keenan McCardell or Vincent Jackson, and I think he only had one season with both. Scan SDs leading receivers each year he's played and it's nearly always Gates and Tomlinson; Floyd's been there a while, but smart money says Rivers is making him look good now, not the reverse.

Roby's looked really good, and is probably more attractive than Talib or Harris. It could also depend on whether we use much dime to deal with how many good WRs SD has along with Gates now. If so, I'd target Webster rather than any of our other CBs, but that carries risks, too, because he's a good young CB; Rivers still has the edge though. I'm really hoping we can consistently get to him fast enough with 5 rushers to force bad throws and create picks for all our CBs; we can't spare anyone from coverage with all SDs legit receiving threats.

Hopefully we can protect Manning from the blitzes THEY'LL be forced to run with half their starting secondary out, and play SDs ball control game against their strictly average run D.

Rivers is a good QB when he gets into a rhythm and everything is working well. And although he is a veteran QB now, he let's things get to him still. Once he's frustrated he forces throws and starts to yell at his team mates. I could see this game going in a lot of ways. I just can't escape the fact that the Chargers defence is so banged up right now, and their best CB is out with a concussion, and their rookie CB Verrett is questionable. Freeney is finally back, but how effective will he be? Probably not a whole lot, look at Von in his first game back, spent a lot of time catching his breath, and out of condition.

I think their two dangerous guys will be Oliver and Royal. Royal has been used a lot for deep plays, and Oliver is a Darren Sproles type back who is explosive. Our run D is so effective right now, I don't see Oliver rushing for much. It's a tough game, but it's prime time and I think we feed off of that more so than the Chargers do, especially in our barn.

That's a good read; Rivers definitely doesn't respond well to adversity, so if our D can make a few stops to start the game and our offense can make a few scores, he could seal it with another meltdown.

Oliver only mildly concerns me because it's hard to be intimidated by a fourth-string back facing a top five run D. Were I a Bolts fan, I'd have the same concerns about him as I do about Hillman: He's a small scatback who can hurt a team if he gets lose, but against a solid run D that contain him, he can't move piles in short yardage like he needs to, and probably can't handle 25-30 carries against guys twice his size knocking the snot out of him. Royal's a much bigger concern, if only because Floyd, Allen and Gates are: We can't spare anyone to double cover any of them, and they're all good.

Last year they blitzed because they couldn't cover, and it's worse now, so if our line can keep guys off Mannings neck even half a second for a hot read, we could burn them a lot and often, and that could neutralize Oliver without our front seven doing anything. It makes their many receiving threats all the more critical though, so the flip side is that we need to reach Rivers quickly with just 4-5 guys because we need everyone else for coverage. Keep Moore deep (don't you DARE freelance! ) have Ward in man on Gates with Irving and Marshall in zone.

With that in mind: Talib on Floyd and Harris on Royal? With safety help over the top, I prefer Harris cover Royal (I think he's their slot guy anyway.) He may not get the flashy picks, but he allows very few catches, and makes quick tackles on those. Roby on Allen looks like a pretty good match on paper; Allen's good, but not (yet) in the same class as the other two, so it feels like Talib or Harris would be wasted there, while Roby might be overmatched against quality vets like Floyd and Royal.

Originally Posted by Joel

That's a good read; Rivers definitely doesn't respond well to adversity, so if our D can make a few stops to start the game and our offense can make a few scores, he could seal it with another meltdown.

Oliver only mildly concerns me because it's hard to be intimidated by a fourth-string back facing a top five run D. Were I a Bolts fan, I'd have the same concerns about him as I do about Hillman: He's a small scatback who can hurt a team if he gets lose, but against a solid run D that contain him, he can't move piles in short yardage like he needs to, and probably can't handle 25-30 carries against guys twice his size knocking the snot out of him. Royal's a much bigger concern, if only because Floyd, Allen and Gates are: We can't spare anyone to double cover any of them, and they're all good.

Last year they blitzed because they couldn't cover, and it's worse now, so if our line can keep guys off Mannings neck even half a second for a hot read, we could burn them a lot and often, and that could neutralize Oliver without our front seven doing anything. It makes their many receiving threats all the more critical though, so the flip side is that we need to reach Rivers quickly with just 4-5 guys because we need everyone else for coverage. Keep Moore deep (don't you DARE freelance! ) have Ward in man on Gates with Irving and Marshall in zone.

With that in mind: Talib on Floyd and Harris on Royal? With safety help over the top, I prefer Harris cover Royal (I think he's their slot guy anyway.) He may not get the flashy picks, but he allows very few catches, and makes quick tackles on those. Roby on Allen looks like a pretty good match on paper; Allen's good, but not (yet) in the same class as the other two, so it feels like Talib or Harris would be wasted there, while Roby might be overmatched against quality vets like Floyd and Royal.

I actually like Talib on Allen, Roby on Floyd and Harris on Royal. I can't think of another athlete in sports like Peyton who is literally better year after year. It also helps that the consistency of our receivers allows Peyton to make throws even quicker than he could the year before. Everything feels different this year, I don't know about you. I feel like our defense is just as good as our offense. The key tomorrow will be able to maintain drives, and drive up the score so Rivers has no choice but to throw. If we beat the Chargers tomorrow like we did against the 49ers, the only other game in the stretch of "tough" matches will be the Patriots the following week (until we have to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead, and the Chargers again in Qualcommm). The good thing to come out of playing Thursday night is you get a bit more time off than you would on a Sunday, which isn't such a bad thing considering we've already had our BYE week.

Originally Posted by tripp

I actually like Talib on Allen, Roby on Floyd and Harris on Royal.

Care to elaborate on why? I like the last matchup, but Floyd worries me more than Allen, and not just because his production jumped this year: He's been around long enough to have a lot of tricks Roby hasn't seen, and has nearly half a foot and 30 lbs. on him. Talib's not much taller (though a bit) but significantly thicker, the biggest of our CBs and arguably the most physical. Allen's bigger than Roby, too, but not by nearly as much, and is only a second year guy himself, so far less likely to outfox a rookie.

Originally Posted by tripp

I can't think of another athlete in sports like Peyton who is literally better year after year. It also helps that the consistency of our receivers allows Peyton to make throws even quicker than he could the year before. Everything feels different this year, I don't know about you. I feel like our defense is just as good as our offense.

I definitely agree with that last part; I thought our D sorely underrated last year, but it's even better now, and SOLID all the way to the waterboy (except maybe at MLB, but not awful there, and Johnson's a good #2 if we lose faith in Irving or he gets hurt.) Most days I wouldn't worry much about Marshall covering a TE, but Antonio Gates (or Gronk) isn't most TEs. It feels different, yeah, but I can't trust my feel and never trust Fox to train and motivate our many studs, hence I'm still worried about our underperforming run blocking putting it all on Mannings shoulders so playoff defenses can sell out on him.

Originally Posted by tripp

The key tomorrow will be able to maintain drives, and drive up the score so Rivers has no choice but to throw.

I doubt we need worry about MAKING Rivers throw; SD runs a lot but not WELL (their DEAD LAST in yds/att and only 29th in total yards despite the 8th most attempts) and our run D is smothering, ranked 5th in yds/att and 3rd in total yards (though part of that's making teams play catchup so much we have the 4th least rushing attempts.) If we can shutdown Charles, Lynch and Gore, we can handle Oliver.

Conversely, SDs passing offense is leads everyone but us in yds/att and is 6th in total yds. A lot of people will likely EXPECT them to target our secondary with that given that we rank 25th in total passing yards allowed, but that's also a function of our scores and record: We're 2nd in passing yds/att, but 19th in attempts.

The matchup favors us nearly everywhere, but I still feel the biggest key to sustaining drives is beating them at their own ball control game so all the blitzes their depleted secondary forces don't hit Manning so much even a win is a loss. We beat them the first time last year, but the team nearly HAD to carry him off on their shoulders because he could barely walk. That was before they had Freeney; Clady can handle him, but if he moves over to go after our UDFA RT making his second start, it could get hairy, and Liuget on Franklin bears watching, too (but can't be worse then Beadles' ankle-crushing "protection.")

Originally Posted by tripp

If we beat the Chargers tomorrow like we did against the 49ers, the only other game in the stretch of "tough" matches will be the Patriots the following week (until we have to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead, and the Chargers again in Qualcommm). The good thing to come out of playing Thursday night is you get a bit more time off than you would on a Sunday, which isn't such a bad thing considering we've already had our BYE week.

I agree with that, except I might include Cincy (I know they look awful now, but their only home loss last year was in the playoffs, and we're on the road for that one.) The Arrowhead game's never fun, and SD won't get any easier as their injuries heal, but if we have 7 wins after this game and @NE after a long rest, we should be in VERY good shape: At least two games up on EVERYONE (including SD) for playoff homefield, with only 3 really challenging games to play. The only ones who could beat us then would be us, but we must finish strong against the strong part of our schedule to get there.

No one will read all of that.

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

No one will read all of that.

How could you, and why would you? I've tried before, I really have. It's just so overboard and so analytical that he writes himself out of interest. I've never seen anything like it.

I see a 34-0 score tonight.

Roby with a TD, a sack and two INT

Miller and Ware to have 5 sacks each

Manning to throw for 600yds and Sanders to catch 3 TDs

Mcmnaus will also probably break the field goal record

And Rivers will cry on Tv

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

No one will read all of that.

Seriously. Having to scroll through walls of text in thread after thread pretty much ruins Broncos talk for me.

We should enforce twitter rules for him. No more than 140 characters

Skip over it. Jesus. Put him on ignore. All the comments are as bad as him just posting. Turning every thread into bash Joel is just as bad. Just put him on ignore and don't read or respond.

Originally Posted by GEM

Skip over it. Jesus. Put him on ignore. All the comments are as bad as him just posting. Turning every thread into bash Joel is just as bad. Just put him on ignore and don't read or respond.

People still quote him and it doesn't block that. I post from my phone, and it's a pain to scroll through all that.

Love it Gem. It was getting that way that someone had to say some something.