Thread: Chiefs vs. Broncos: Preview and Prediction

On Sunday night on national television the most highly anticipated game of the year will finally happen. The 8-1 Broncos will take on the undefeated 8-0 Chiefs. This is not only the first of two meetings between these teams this year but also the first time two teams with this high of a combined winning percentage have faced each other this late into an NFL season in 40 years.

Both squads have received a fair amount of criticism this season. The Chiefs on their strength of schedule and lack of offense, and the Broncos with their lack luster defense. Because of the quarterbacks that they have faced, the Chiefs have received quite a bit more criticism though.

Chiefs fans and Broncos fans both have high expectations for their respected teams this weekend. Chiefs fans believe it’s not a fluke, but Broncos fans will beg to differ.

The Chiefs are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL. They rank 24th in yards per game, 27th in passing offense, 3rd in punts, and 23rd in third down percentage. They do boast the 12th best running game in the league but even that hasn’t created a lot of points for the Chiefs.

The Broncos are on the opposite side of the spectrum. They rank 1st in yards per game, 1st in points per game, 29th in punts, and 1st in third down percentage.

The defensive stats, once again, are completely opposite. The Chiefs are 8th in total defense, 6th in passing yards allowed per game, 1st in points allowed per game, but are 24th in rushing yards allowed per game.

The Broncos are 20th in total defense, 30th in passing yards allowed per game, 25th in points allowed per game, but are 4th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Don’t let those numbers fool you though. The past few weeks the Broncos defense has been a rising in stock, and the Chiefs has been falling...CONTINUE READING

The last two weeks the Chiefs defense has allowed 810 total yards, 512 passing, and 298 rushing. While the Broncos have allowed only 595 total yards, 352 passing, and 243 rushing. In that time fram, the Chiefs played two teams that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in yards per game (Buffalo and Cleveland) meanwhile the Broncos played two teams that rank in the top 10 in yards per game (Washington and San Diego).

Now THAT was news to me, and encouraging. Not that KCs D has recently been less impressive against weak offenses, or ours more impressive against strong ones, but that we actually outperformed them in EVERY yardage category. Depending whether KCs D is blamed for a TD drive after a missed FG and ours blamed for a TD drive after a safety, we're arguably tied in PA over the last three games: 40 apiece.

They can't beat us without the turnovers they create and we surrender at such equally alarming rates. Our run D (probably) isn't as good as the first months blow outs make its stats, but IS very good. Knighton and Vickerson have finally restored the stout middle cloggers absent since Trevor Pryce left, Derek Wolfe is reminiscent of Pryce (but we let him play more RDE in our base) and Phillips/Ayers are both strong against the run at LDE. Miller's as good or better against the run as blitzing, and those five let Woodyard and Trevathan exploit their speed without being vulnerable to bigger blockers. I fear Smiths feet more than Charles'.

Unfortunately, OUR run game has fallen off dramatically the last month. Morenos 65 yds last week was the first time in four games he had >50. We had two three-and-outs just in the first quarter against Indy when the #30 run D stuffed us on 3rd and 1 runs; the first didn't hurt, but after the second we punted to their 39 and they tied the game with a TD. We converted our next 3rd and 1 PASSING—the same way we got our last first down against SD, at the cost of another shot to Mannings legs. Despite the early blowouts, we're 20th in total and 26th in average rushing: 3.7 yds per carry won't get it done.

It takes the same thing to increase those rushing yards against a weak run D (thereby taking literal and figurative pressure off Manning,) avoid turnovers and keep our franchise QB healthy: Blocking that's been sorely lacking since we lost our Pro Bowl LT for the season and had our RT injured against Jax (when Denver first began looking mortal again.) We can't get more linemen, but have a number of very good blocking TEs, and I expect (hope) to see more of them helping Clark pass protect and Beadles run block at the line tomorrow.

One (hopefully) minor note: Just as we can't let Manning get strip-sacked for points in a fourth straight game or have his arm grabbed as he throws a ball easily picked, we can't afford more of the fumbles from backs that put former #2 Ronnie Hillman on the bench and raised questions about 2nd round rookie Montee Ball. Against a turnover-happy D, they must run with both hands on the ball. If we avoid turnovers and keep our QB healthy our run D can at least contain Charles; if we keep Smith in the pocket he can't beat us through the air. Down to our line and TEs.