Thread: A question I asked twice in another thread that wasn't answered.

Maybe this is just a gap in my football knowledge but I just don't get it when someone says that the Chargers will have an advantage now because McCoy knows Manning's tendencies.

What possible knowledge of Manning's tendencies could McCoy have that couldn't also be gained from simply watching film on him? I know he sees him in practice and works with him, but as far as things like what plays he likes on 3rd and 7 or who he likes to throw to out of a certain formation, what value could McCoy add that any other team couldn't obtain by watching the film? Yeah he knows the audible calls, but those almost assuredly change every season, especially if there is a coaching change I would imagine.

And this could apply to any situation in which a player or coach goes against a former team. I always hear that the team with the other team's former player or coach has the advantage of knowing the inside secrets. I just don't know what secrets could be provided that you can't find out from the film. I've also never seen any statistical evidence correlating teams having more success when they have a coach or player who used to be on the opposing team.

Am I just completely missing something or is this entire concept a myth like I think it is?

I am sort of annoyed at this question, since it's mostly self evident. I think you have to come from a position of arrogance to assume it wouldn't affect us negatively. But since you and Coach and a few others seem adamant, I will give you my take.

First of all - Manning's body is unique after 4 surgeries. There are throws he can make, throws he can't and limitations that are specific to him... He certainly would have disclosed all of those weaknesses to McCoy throughout the year as they gameplanned. So that's the biggest thing - he knows Manning inside and out.

He also knows what Manning likes to do in almost all situations because they obviously discussed preferences, strengths/weaknesses as they gameplanned. e.g. Does Manning prefer comebacks on 3rd down with a certain set of variables that aren't evident on film? He knows the logic behind calling certain plays at certain times.

He also knows how we like to attack the current Chargers roster.

Plus - the offense is actually pretty simple - http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...denver-broncos - so it's not like a Shanahan style offense that completely changed from week to week. It's fairly static, and arguably easier to pick out nuances that would help a team defend against it.

Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

Originally Posted by BaileyTheBest

Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

You're right BTB. It's not all about one player. 45 guys dress for the game and 45 guys can beat you. The McCoy hire is no advantage at all.

See Allen, Dennis.

Originally Posted by BaileyTheBest

Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

Caldwell was with him pre-surgery.

I'm not saying it's earth shattering. But it seems pretty clear that McCoy stands to benefit from his inside knowledge - especially in the first year.

Did Dennis Allen have an advantage this year?

Did Mike Shannan have one when he left Denver to coach the Raiders?

I call B.S.

The classic example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXXVII
This game as well: http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=291011007
Countless Mangini vs. Belichick matchups

The Ravens with Caldwell as their offensive coordinator effectively shut down Peyton twice (though that can be attributed to the Ravens stellar secondary).


Any time you have a coach leave they are bound to have in-depth knowledge of that team and of the players they coached. While it's difficult to pinpoint all of the specifics in writing, it's one thing to see something on film and it's another entirely when you were the one sitting there game planning and watching a player play. Only the coaches know how the play was supposed to be drawn up. With Tim Tebow for instance, the Jets (and the rest of the league) may have been under the impression we designed more of those improvised passes/throws than McCoy actually had. Only the coaching staff knows how the plays were supposed to be drawn up. The film may show a player following his progressions but there are lots of pre-snap reads that eliminate unnecessary progressions from the content of film study.

It's definitely not a myth. A coach does have an advantage against his former team that film just doesn't give. It's difficult to put into statistics because it's more of a "human" element to the game. Football just isn't that kind of game and there are too many variables to ask for statistical evidence.

Originally Posted by UnderArmour

The classic example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXXVII
This game as well: http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=291011007
Countless Mangini vs. Belichick matchups

The Ravens with Caldwell as their offensive coordinator effectively shut down Peyton twice (though that can be attributed to the Ravens stellar secondary).


Any time you have a coach leave they are bound to have in-depth knowledge of that team and of the players they coached. While it's difficult to pinpoint all of the specifics in writing, it's one thing to see something on film and it's another entirely when you were the one sitting there game planning and watching a player play. Only the coaches know how the play was supposed to be drawn up. With Tim Tebow for instance, the Jets (and the rest of the league) may have been under the impression we designed more of those improvised passes/throws than McCoy actually had. Only the coaching staff knows how the plays were supposed to be drawn up. The film may show a player following his progressions but there are lots of pre-snap reads that eliminate unnecessary progressions from the content of film study.

It's definitely not a myth. A coach does have an advantage against his former team that film just doesn't give. It's difficult to put into statistics because it's more of a "human" element to the game. Football just isn't that kind of game and there are too many variables to ask for statistical evidence.

But your second and third example don't match. In one, McDaniels is beating his mentor in Bellichick. In the other Bellichick is beating his pupil in Mangini. That just proves the advantages cancel out since BB knows MCD and Mangini's tendencies, but they each know his as well.

Originally Posted by Buff

Caldwell was with him pre-surgery.

I'm not saying it's earth shattering. But it seems pretty clear that McCoy stands to benefit from his inside knowledge - especially in the first year.

So he MAY have a SMALL advantage in his FIRST year? If that's the case then color me not worried. I think the only time an advantage like that would really matter is if the talent were relatively equal. And at this point at least, Denver has quite the upper edge in that category.

Originally Posted by BaileyTheBest

So he MAY have a SMALL advantage in his FIRST year? If that's the case then color me not worried. I think the only time an advantage like that would really matter is if the talent were relatively equal. And at this point at least, Denver has quite the upper edge in that category.

I wouldn't say I'm worried. But I think its indisputable that McCoy on day 1 has more of a competitive advantage over us than virtually any other HC San Diego could have hired.

Whether than translates into victories for the Chargers I don't know - but it's not ideal. And it's certainly not a myth that he has material inside information.

I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but how could it not lead to some advantage that another coach wouldn't have? Intimately knowing something is much preferred to gleaning what you think you know from film study.

We will be able to overcome it, but it's a slight advantage.

There's also no guarantee the info he currently possess will be valid next year. Our offense will likely be slightly different with a new OC and for all we know Manning will be able to make some throws next year that he wasn't able to this year. I think even his most recent comments he said the arm was still improving and not at 100%.

I just think that so much changes from year to year in the NFL in terms of players or coaches that info only a year old might as well be 100 years old.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but how could it not lead to some advantage that another coach wouldn't have? Intimately knowing something is much preferred to gleaning what you think you know from film study.

We will be able to overcome it, but it's a slight advantage.

And my point is by the same token Fox knows what McCoy likes to do as well. The results of coaches going against former teams are just too mixed to really see if there is any advantage either way.

Originally Posted by BaileyTheBest

There's also no guarantee the info he currently possess will be valid next year. Our offense will likely be slightly different with a new OC and for all we know Manning will be able to make some throws next year that he wasn't able to this year. I think even his most recent comments he said the arm was still improving and not at 100%.

I just think that so much changes from year to year in the NFL in terms of players or coaches that info only a year old might as well be 100 years old.

But part of what I've been trying to argue is that Manning is the exception to that rule. He will run a virtually identical system next year like he has for virtually his entire career. He will likely have many of the same surgery-induced physical limitations.

Originally Posted by Buff

But part of what I've been trying to argue is that Manning is the exception to that rule. He will run a virtually identical system next year like he has for virtually his entire career. He will likely have many of the same surgery-induced physical limitations.

And like I said, if the code on his offense hasn't been cracked in 15 years I'm not overly worried that Mike McCoy will be the one to do it. The teams that slow down Manning do so because they have the personnel to do so. I think most coaches know exactly what he's going to do. It's just a matter of having the talent to stop it.