Thread: Percentage Chance that Osweiler Will Ever Be Any Good

I decided to look just at the percentages of QBs taken at #57 or later in the 2nd round or 3rd round (only). I'm not including late round scrubs who never had a chance, many of whom were around for a cup of coffee or spent some time on the developmental squad but never made a start.

I'm not going to argue that Osweiler WILL be a bust because NOBODY can know that. EFX like him and will try and develop him and we'll see.

But according to simple statistics it's a Long-Shot at best. About 5% chance he ever becomes a decent starter (not even elite QB, because that hasn't happened in the last 12 years, but decent starter).

2010

Jimmy Clausen #48
Colt McCoy #85

2009
Pat White #44

2008
Brian Brohme #56
Chad Henne #57

2007
Kevin Kolb #36
Brian Beck #40
Drew Stanton #43
Trent Edwards #92

2006
Kellen Clemmens #49
Tavaris Jackson #64
Charlie Whitehurst #81
Brodie Croyle #85

2005
Charlie Frye #67
Andrew Walther #69
David Greene #85
Kyle Orton #106

2004
Matt Shaub #90

2003
David Ragone #88
Chris Simms #97

2002
Josh McCown #81

2001
Drew Brees #32 (1st pick of the 2nd)
Quincy Carter #53
Marques Tuiaososopo # 59

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi #65
Chris Redmond #75

Drew Brees was the only elite QB drafted in the 2nd round or later in the last 12 years, but he was the #32 pick, basically a first rounder.

Notice that Matt Shaub is the ONLY QB taken at #57 or later who is any good at all. He's not considered an elite QB but he is decent.
And NO, Kyle Orton doesn't count.

So, just looking at STATS, your chances are about 1 in 20 or 5% that Osweiler will ever be any good.

And NO, once again, don't bother arguing that you have confidence in Elway or something equally irrelevant.

He could be good, great or completely worthless. We just don't know at this point.

I'm just pointing out the odds. Vegas is filled with broke losers who bet against the House. Once in a while someone hits the jackpot, that's all.

How many elite QBs would you say there are in the league today? Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, and........? Rivers, no. Doesn't perform in playoffs. Stafford, too soon, but in a year or two okay. Cam, probably but needs another year or two. Cutler, not elite. Smith, not elite. Ryan and Flacco, neither yet.

So of those five elite QBs, two were taken #1 (as a franchise, we've never had a #1), one slid to late in the first, and two were taken outside the first round. So 40% of today's elite QBs were taken outside the first round. Seems like good odds to me.

Time will tell. We can hope is about all.

My complaint on Osweiler is a few things:

1. He was a spread option QB. People railed about the last spread option QB that was here

2. I am not sure he can read defenses all too well.

3. For as much was made about Tannehill's minimal number of starts NOBODY has mentioned that Osweiler has LESS!

4. He just comes across as immature.

5. I am not sure he will get the reps he needs while Manning is here. He needs reps. he needs looks at D's. I don't see how he will be able to progress when he wont get the work he needs.

Things I like about Osweiler-He is big, he can throw, and is young. By the time Manning is done, Osweiler should still be young.

Originally Posted by bcbronc

How many elite QBs would you say there are in the league today? Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, and........? Rivers, no. Doesn't perform in playoffs. Stafford, too soon, but in a year or two okay. Cam, probably but needs another year or two. Cutler, not elite. Smith, not elite. Ryan and Flacco, neither yet.

So of those five elite QBs, two were taken #1 (as a franchise, we've never had a #1), one slid to late in the first, and two were taken outside the first round. So 40% of today's elite QBs were taken outside the first round. Seems like good odds to me.

Ok...40% of today's elite QB's were taken outside of the 1st...

...but only 15% of today's QB's are elite. Which actually lessens the chances to about 6% that Osweiler will be elite. Now this is also being technical about it because when you are the 1st player taken in the 2nd round...you are pretty much 1st round talent. It ust so happened that other teams filled other needs and the teams at the end of round one are ther because they are the better teams and likely already had a QB.

So, if we consider Brees a 1st rounder by default...the chances are even slimmer.


I dont know. Based on his current skillset, type of offense he plkays well in, where he was drafted, and a few other factors. I see us drafting a first round FQB in about 5 years

The OP could very well be right, but we'll have to wait and see. Obviously the further you get from the early first round the less likely you'd expect, statistically, to steal an elite or even "good" quarterback. There's always exceptions- Matt Leinart, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell were all selected in the first rounds; Tom Brady was selected in no mans land.

But even assuming the statistics are valid (I haven't checked if he missed anyone) it didn't help Brock that he only had 15 starts in college and is considered very talented but a big project. He has an extremely good arm, and I haven't followed him, but unlike previous comments the draft people were saying he had very good intelligence. There probably isn't a better place to be right now for a project QB, having Elway and Manning around. If it works, great, if not, then we lost a second round pick. I was one that thought we could have used that pick on something else, but I don't suspect that will haunt the franchise for years to come.

none of this means anything. not even theoretically.

I think there are just too many other factors involved to say "5% of QB's taken in the second/third round turn out to be good." Every draft is different and the number of QB's taken in the 1st round varies. And let's not forget, there are PLENTY of quarterbacks taken MUCH later than the second round who have gone on to be great (Tom Brady, anyone?). If any comparison can be made, I'd make it between Osweiler and Aaron Rodgers. Not because they play similar styles but because of the situations they were both drafted into. I'd argue Osweiler's is much better than what Rodgers had, but both came into the league with time to learn from a Hall of Fame veteran QB (two in Denver's case). That being said, if Osweiler fails, the blame will fall firmly on his own shoulders.

Originally Posted by BroncosReport

I think there are just too many other factors involved to say "5% of QB's taken in the second/third round turn out to be good." Every draft is different and the number of QB's taken in the 1st round varies. And let's not forget, there are PLENTY of quarterbacks taken MUCH later than the second round who have gone on to be great (Tom Brady, anyone?). If any comparison can be made, I'd make it between Osweiler and Aaron Rodgers. Not because they play similar styles but because of the situations they were both drafted into. I'd argue Osweiler's is much better than what Rodgers had, but both came into the league with time to learn from a Hall of Fame veteran QB (two in Denver's case). That being said, if Osweiler fails, the blame will fall firmly on his own shoulders.

I appreciate your comment, but if you are going to make the above statement, you'll need to back it up with more than one name

Originally Posted by CoachChaz

Ok...40% of today's elite QB's were taken outside of the 1st...

...but only 15% of today's QB's are elite. Which actually lessens the chances to about 6% that Osweiler will be elite. Now this is also being technical about it because when you are the 1st player taken in the 2nd round...you are pretty much 1st round talent. It ust so happened that other teams filled other needs and the teams at the end of round one are ther because they are the better teams and likely already had a QB.

So, if we consider Brees a 1st rounder by default...the chances are even slimmer.


I dont know. Based on his current skillset, type of offense he plkays well in, where he was drafted, and a few other factors. I see us drafting a first round FQB in about 5 years

okay, so let's just take every QB drafted, from first overall to Mr. Irrelevant. Over the past few years, there tends to be 11-15 QBs taken any given draft year. With the exception of an Andrew Luck, EVERY QB drafted faces terrible odds of making it as a Qb. If you're a betting man, it's a stupid bet to bet ANY QB will become elite. First overall, first round, second round, sixth round, smart money is on a bust. No point ever drafting a QB if you don't like long odds......

The odds of any QB being elite are very small. Its why nearly every team in the NFL is looking for their guy (I think that bc forgot rothlesburger). But so what? I can say the same thing about EVERY position on the field. The Chances of that player being an all-pro is VERY unlikely. Is that really the point of taking the QB now? No.

It has everything to do with timing. Manning may play for 5 years, or 2. We got a guy to learn behind Peyton now... so what? Who cares that Cugel thinks/believes/shows that the odds are small?? Of course they are small. Thats what the ENTIRE draft is about.... picking players and doing your best to take players with the smallest chance of failure... WHILE..finding the right player that will fit into what you are doing, works with what the coach is doing, AND won't be a dip-shit outside the football field.

Its so VERY VERY VERY easy to say "we should have taken this player"....when you ahve NO idea, your job isn't on the line, and NOTHING changes if/when you are wrong. The funny thing is, we'll never know. People will say "see, I told you so".. as if it proves something. As if WHERE a player goes, WHEN he goes, the System he plays with has NOTHING to do with a player's success. If you truly don't believe that, then you need to get your head out of the sand.

Is it REALLY going to "break" this team if Oz doesn't work out? Really? No. But it could pay off HUGE dividends. As bc pointed out, the odds of ANY QB making it and being elite are tiny. So why do teams do it? Why did team take QBs at all when the money was SOOOO big and chances are so small??? Because the payoff is worth MORE than the risk.

The coaches/GM believe that getting a protege' behind Manning NOW makes sense. They want to start grooming someone now, and thats ALLLL there is to it.

Originally Posted by bcbronc

okay, so let's just take every QB drafted, from first overall to Mr. Irrelevant. Over the past few years, there tends to be 11-15 QBs taken any given draft year. With the exception of an Andrew Luck, EVERY QB drafted faces terrible odds of making it as a Qb. If you're a betting man, it's a stupid bet to bet ANY QB will become elite. First overall, first round, second round, sixth round, smart money is on a bust. No point ever drafting a QB if you don't like long odds......

I'm not arguing that it's a crap shoot. Whether it's 1st overall or last overall, you never can tell. But the odds are MUCH better in the 1st round than in the 2nd. Wasnt always that way and I think it can be that way again. So if it's all about luck after the first...why prioritize it and ignore greater needs? I think that's the question people are asking

Originally Posted by Cugel

I decided to look just at the percentages of QBs taken at #57 or later in the 2nd round or 3rd round (only). I'm not including late round scrubs who never had a chance, many of whom were around for a cup of coffee or spent some time on the developmental squad but never made a start.

I'm not going to argue that Osweiler WILL be a bust because NOBODY can know that. EFX like him and will try and develop him and we'll see.

But according to simple statistics it's a Long-Shot at best. About 5% chance he ever becomes a decent starter (not even elite QB, because that hasn't happened in the last 12 years, but decent starter).

2010

Jimmy Clausen #48
Colt McCoy #85

2009
Pat White #44

2008
Brian Brohme #56
Chad Henne #57

2007
Kevin Kolb #36
Brian Beck #40
Drew Stanton #43
Trent Edwards #92

2006
Kellen Clemmens #49
Tavaris Jackson #64
Charlie Whitehurst #81
Brodie Croyle #85

2005
Charlie Frye #67
Andrew Walther #69
David Greene #85
Kyle Orton #106

2004
Matt Shaub #90

2003
David Ragone #88
Chris Simms #97

2002
Josh McCown #81

2001
Drew Brees #32 (1st pick of the 2nd)
Quincy Carter #53
Marques Tuiaososopo # 59

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi #65
Chris Redmond #75

Drew Brees was the only elite QB drafted in the 2nd round or later in the last 12 years, but he was the #32 pick, basically a first rounder.

Notice that Matt Shaub is the ONLY QB taken at #57 or later who is any good at all. He's not considered an elite QB but he is decent.
And NO, Kyle Orton doesn't count.

So, just looking at STATS, your chances are about 1 in 20 or 5% that Osweiler will ever be any good.

And NO, once again, don't bother arguing that you have confidence in Elway or something equally irrelevant.

He could be good, great or completely worthless. We just don't know at this point.

I'm just pointing out the odds. Vegas is filled with broke losers who bet against the House. Once in a while someone hits the jackpot, that's all.

So, Tony Romo doesn't count? He was an UDFA, right? Sure, people bag on him because the Cowboys, as a team, are dysfunctional, but the dude threw 31 TDs to 10 INts, had a 102 passer rating and a 66% completion percentage. It sure as shit wasn't his fault that Dallas can't win. I'd take those numbers every damned year.

I bet Cousins, Wilson, Moore, Foles, etc are all pouting as we speak at the odds they will ever become anything.

Originally Posted by HORSEPOWER 56

So, Tony Romo doesn't count? He was an UDFA, right? Sure, people bag on him because the Cowboys, as a team, are dysfunctional, but the dude threw 31 TDs to 10 INts, had a 102 passer rating and a 66% completion percentage. It sure as shit wasn't his fault that Dallas can't win. I'd take those numbers every damned year.

Along with the games he throws away? It's not the 10 interceptions that count for him as much as when he threw the interceptions. Throws a bad pass against the Jets to give up the lead. Throws 2 pick-6's against the Lions that lead to loss in a game they were up 20 points in.

Romo is a good example of a UDFA that made it and plays well...but a bad example of a good leader and elite QB.