1. Detroit Lions (Record: 0-16): Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Top three needs: QB, LOT, DE
Stafford is the very clear choice for Detroit. Among the three players the Lions have said they are negotiating with, Stafford is at the top, Jason Smith would be the next choice if negotiations with Stafford break down, and Curry is a long shot. The Lions definitely want a deal in place with the top pick before the draft, and they definitely hope it's with Stafford.
2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Top three needs: OT, WR, MLB
Smith has the athleticism and tenacity of a premiere starting left tackle, which is priority No. 1 for St. Louis after it parted ways with Orlando Pace during the offseason. If Smith is on the board, it's hard to imagine the Rams going in any other direction.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Top three needs: Rush LB, DT, 3-4 DL
Here's where it starts to get interesting. This pick is suddenly much more valuable given the fact that Sanchez is projected to come off the board at No. 4, but it remains to be seen whether any team will pay the huge price it would take to get ahead of Seattle. Curry is without question the best available player, but does he fit what the Chiefs are looking to do defensively as they move to a 3-4 look? I think Curry is just as valuable inside in a 3-4 as he is outside in a 4-3, but the one thing they don't get for certain is an impact pass-rusher off the edge. I think Kansas City goes with Curry, but if the Chiefs go in a different direction it will likely be OT Eugene Monroe.
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Top three needs: OLB, OT, S
The Seahawks are clearly looking for the heir apparent to current starter Matt Hasselbeck, who has dealt with nagging injuries recently but likely has two or three more years in him. There are also questions about stud LT Walter Jones, who is coming off a serious knee injury, but selecting Sanchez will allow Seattle to eventually hand the reins from one franchise quarterback to another.
5. Cleveland Browns (4-12): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Top three needs: OLB, WR, CB
Raji is the best player on the board at this point and would provide the Browns with a stout nose tackle in their 4-4 defense. He has the size and strength to anchor against double-teams in the running game and the burst and quickness to collapse the pocket and get to the quarterback as a pass-rusher.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Top three needs: OT, C, RB
Monroe is the best pure pass-blocker in the draft and he makes sense for a team that has had trouble staying healthy up front and has invested significant money in QB Carson Palmer.
7. Oakland Raiders (5-11): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Top three needs: OT, WR, DT
We rate Crabtree as the top receiver in the 2009 draft, but Raiders owner Al Davis is in love with speed and gives Maclin the edge here. Maclin is one of the most explosive players in the draft and fills one of Oakland's biggest needs, and while he is a bit raw as a receiver and route-runner his speed is impressive and he can also contribute in the return game.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Top three needs: WR, CB, DT
There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about the Jaguars trading out of this spot and giving another team a shot at Sanchez, but with Sanchez slotted fourth in this projection that scenario is out. Crabtree offers great value and a good fit here with his blend of size, hands and body control, and he would give QB David Garrard a legitimate weapon on the outside.
9. Green Bay Packers (6-10): Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Top three needs: 3-4 OLB, 3-4 DL, OT
We've had DE/OLB hybrids Aaron Maybin and Brian Orakpo in this spot recently but they are sliding a bit. Smith makes sense here because Packers OTs Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton are aging and have dealt with injury, and Smith has bounced back from the disastrous start to his pre-draft preparation and now offers good value here.
10. San Francisco 49ers (7-9): Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
Top three needs: ROT, QB, S
The 49ers want a right tackle who can step in and contribute right away and Oher is a mauler as a run blocker who could do just that. The team would like to move current LT Joe Staley back to the right side, and this scenario will allow Oher to get used to blitz pickups and the speed of the NFL game before moving to the left side.
11. Buffalo Bills (7-9): Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
Top three needs: Rush DE, C/G, TE
Orakpo is the top-rated DE/OLB hybrid in this draft and we think he is a better fit at end in a 4-3 alignment, which makes him a great fit for the Bills. His strength and burst off the edge will be a welcome addition for a defense that got only three combined sacks from Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel last season.
12. Denver Broncos (8-8): Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Top three needs: QB, NT, 3-4 DE
The interesting thing with Denver is that on paper, the Broncos need a quarterback. But even if Sanchez were to fall to the Broncos here I don't expect them to pull the trigger. This pick is all about the D-line for the Broncos. If Raji somehow slips, they'll cash in and grab him. If not, Denver will take the best five-technique DE (interior DE in a 3-4) in this year's class.
13. Washington Redskins (8-8): Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Top three needs: DE, ROT, strong side LB
There are three angles with the Redskins and this pick. One, if Sanchez falls, they take him. Two, they could mortgage their future and send draft picks to move up to take Sanchez. I'm not convinced they'll do it, but it certainly wouldn't be against owner Dan Snyder's style. Third, assuming Sanchez is gone, they go either with an offensive tackle or a defensive end. In this case, Maybin is the best value on the board between those two positions and his quickness and agility off the edge would give the Redskins versatility at the position opposite Andre Carter.
14. New Orleans Saints (8-8): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Top three needs: OLB, FS, RB
The Saints have been rumored to have their eye on Jenkins' former teammate Beanie Wells, but Jenkins is the safer pick here. He has has the versatility to play both corner and safety but would fit best at free safety on a New Orleans defense that is in desperate need of playmakers on the back end.
15. Houston Texans (8-8): Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Top three needs: SS, NT, rush DE
Ayers is a one-year wonder but he has good size and can get p the field after the quarterback. Adding him to the mix with DE Mario Williams and DT Amobi Okoye would present big problems for opposing protection schemes.
16. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State
Top three needs: ROT, RG, SS
The running back situation in San Diego is not as good as you might think. LaDainian Tomlinson has dealt with nagging injuries recently Darren Sproles was given the franchise tag during the offseason and Michael Bennett is an aging backup who won't carry much of the load, so this is a good luxury pick for the Chargers. Wells would provide them with a big back who can keep Tomlinson fresh and allow Sproles to remain in a complementary role, and he would also provide some certainty for the future.
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17. New York Jets (9-7): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Top three needs: QB, WR, TE
The price to move up and get Sanchez is likely too steep for the Jets now that Sanchez is projected to go No. 4 overall, and there are enough questions about speedy wideouts Darrius Heyward-Bey and Percy Harvin to take them here. Freeman would definitely be a reach at this point given questions about his instincts and consistency, but his size and rifle arm could be enough to overshadow any concerns and push the Jets to make a desperation move. Quarterback talent drops off significantly after Freeman and at this point he is New York's best chance to fill that need.
18. Denver Broncos (from 9-7 CHI) (8-8): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Top three needs: QB, NT, 3-4 DE
The Broncos will look to continue to upgrade their defensive front seven with this pick, and Brown could help fill out the rotation of perimeter pass-rushers. The wild card here could be a running back. If Beanie Wells starts to fall, the Broncos could look to take advantage and snag the Ohio State running back because he's a perfect fit for Denver's zone-blocking scheme.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Top three needs: QB, DT, OLB
Cushing is not the most fluid outside linebacker but he is physical in coverage and has the speed and instincts to play in coverage in the Tampa 2 system, playing a role similar to the departed Derrick Brooks.
20. Detroit Lions (from 9-7 DAL) (0-16): Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
Top three needs: QB, LOT, DE
New coach Jim Schwartz will rotate his defensive lineman throughout a game and current DTs Grady Jackson and Chuck Darby are on the down side of their careers. Jerry would fit well in that rotation as a one-gap penetrator who can create havoc in the middle.
21. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Top three needs: OT, WR, RB
The Eagles can go three directions with these two picks: Offensive tackle seems to be priority No. 1, followed by running back and tight end. Thing is, Moreno is just such a better value that he could make them skip over OT here. Moreno's versatility makes him a good fit in Philly as the short-term complement to Brian Westbrook and long-term replacement for him.
22. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Top three needs: QB, ROT, C
There are questions about Heyward-Bey's route-running and hands, but he was the fastest player at the combine and his speed would provide a downfield threat for an offense that needs to prevent defenses from ganging up on RB Adrian Peterson.
23. New England Patriots (11-5): Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
Top three needs: OLB, strongside ILB, CB
If Jenkins falls, don't be surprised to see the Patriots take advantage of that and select him. His versatility fits perfectly in New England. But if he's not there, Matthews has 'Patriots' written all over him. Matthews' best football is still ahead of him, he has great NFL bloodlines, he can play multiple roles on defense, and he will be a special-teams demon from day one.
24. Atlanta Falcons (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Top three needs: DT/NT, OLB, S
Atlanta really wants to target defense with this draft, but there isn't a player close to Pettigrew's value at this point. Assuming the Falcons don't bring in a veteran between now and the draft, they have to go with the only first-round TE in this year's class if he's available.
25. Miami Dolphins (11-5): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Top three needs: CB, WR, NT
Davis is perhaps the best cover corner in the draft and a top-15 talent but he has fallen a bit due to concerns about his work ethic and consistency. Still, me makes perfect sense for a team that made the playoffs last year but needs a playmaker in the defensive secondary. Davis is a great value at this point, and on a team with strong leadership in the front office and the locker room character concerns are not as significant as they might be for other teams.
McShay 7 Round Mock
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Originally Posted by honz
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