Thread: A Little Clarification On Orton's Record...

I don't know if this has been covered, considering the number of Cutler threads, but I did some research on the win/loss records of Kyle Orton (since there are those who think that's the ONLY measurement of a QBs abilities) and it was very interesting.

Basically, Kyle had the benefit of not only playing when the opponent was held to 21 points or less, but he got to play when the opponent was held to 10 points or less.

___________________________________

In 2005, Orton's record was 10-3 when the defense held the opponent to 21 points or less. However, that is a slightly misleading stat....

In 8 of those games, the defense held the opponent to 10 points or less, something our defense only managed ONE TIME in Cutler's 37 starts. His record in those games was 7-1. Jay won his game for a 1-0 record.

In 2007, Orton's record was 1-1 when the defense held the opponent to 21 points of less. In the win, the defense again held the opponent to 10 points or less.

In 2008, Orton's record was 6-1 when the defense held the opponent to 21 points or less. Once again, a misleading stat, because in three of those games, the defense held the opponent to 10 points or less.

So to summarize....

Orton is 17-5 (.772) in games where the defense held the opponent to 21 points or less, which is worse than Jay's 12-1 record (.923). However, when you consider that 12 of Orton's starts were games where the defense held the opponent to 10 points or less (heck - Plummer or Griese can win a game if the opponent doesn't score any more than that) and Orton's record was 11-1 (.916) in those games, which means that Jay's record as a starter is better when the opponent scores 21 or less than Kyle's record is when the opponent scores 10 or less.

But hey, the defense doesn't matter, does it?

Kyle Orton plays for the Denver Broncos, though.

As I said in that thread on Bmania, that post simply wins. Great research, I appreciate it.

So, it's not really clarifying anything?

He's still 21-12, yes?

Originally Posted by broncos_mtnman

But hey, the defense doesn't matter, does it?

Hey mountain man, what is that picture of Jeff George doing in your Signature??

Mtn, now you and I know what Plummer fans went through once upon a time don't we?

Jay Cutler > Kyle Orton in terms of talent. However, Orton actually wants to be here and he wins football games, therefore Orton > Cutler.

Seeing as how people have countered with empty, wasteful posts, I think you've done a good job here Mtn.

Originally Posted by NameUsedBefore

Seeing as how people have countered with empty, wasteful posts, I think you've done a good job here Mtn.

I could rehash the fact that his stats were comparable, pre-injury, in 2008, to Cutler's in the first seven games...I don't really feel like doing it, but I could, if you really find it necessary.

They are about as useful as the stupid points stat, which time and time again disproves the ENTIRE idea of "franchise" quarterbacks.

Originally Posted by NameUsedBefore

Seeing as how people have countered with empty, wasteful posts, I think you've done a good job here Mtn.

Orton is 1-3 when his team gives up more than 30 points. I think Cutler is like 3-13 or something? Not sure of the exact numbers, but their winning %'s are pretty much the same in those situations. Look, Cutler is a better talent than Orton no doubt, but the dude was clearly looking for a way out. He didn't want to be our QB. What's done is done, and we now have a QB that went 9-7 with an average defense and an offense that scored more than ours did last year.

No one says defense doesn't matter...

So once you get beyond that, what is the point you're trying to make? Is it that we should all be really mad that Cutler got traded? Do you think we should fire McDaniels after everything else that has already happened?

Should we all just be mad forever?

All i used to hear was that Jake was a winner and that QB's are judged on wins. If thats the case than Jay isnt a winner and Orton is. Although i personally dont follow that mantra to try and discredit Orton for leading his team to victory is just as naive as the guy who says Jay was supposed to do it all by himself.

Well since Orton is an offensive player how bout we look at what his offense did. What's it matter if the defense held them to less than 10 points if he is scoring over 21? If the other team did score over 21 they would of lost anyways. Let's see the games last year that the bears won when they held opponents to 21 points or less.

CHI 29 @ IND 13
PHI 20 @ CHI 24
CHI 34 @ DET 7
CHI 27 @ STL 3
JAC 10 @ CHI 23
GB 17 @ CHI 20

Looks like kyle's offense did more than enough to win most of these games whether the teams scored 21 points or not.

Now since we are looking at how the offense performed let's see how many games denver's offense scored 21 points or less.

DEN 19 @ KC 33
TB 13 @ DEN 16
JAC 24 @ DEN 17
DEN 7 @ NE 41
MIA 26 @ DEN 17
OAK 31 @ DEN 10
DEN 10 @ CAR 30
DEN 21 @ SD 52

That is 8 games. 3 of them we scored 10 points or less. Now here is the list of chicago's games when they scored 21 points or less.

CHI 17 @ CAR 20
CHI 20 @ ATL 22
TEN 21 @ CHI 14
CHI 3 @ GB 37
CHI 14 @ MIN 34
GB 17 @ CHI 20

that is only 6 games and only 1 game with 10 points or less.

So by using your argument of the 21 point and 10 point thing and applying it to the offense (which is what really matters when you talk about a quarterback) instead of the defense. Kyle orton wins with less weapons than Jay.

Originally Posted by Foochacho

So by using your argument of the 21 point and 10 point thing and applying it to the offense (which is what really matters when you talk about a quarterback) instead of the defense. Kyle orton wins with less weapons than Jay.

/thread

« AFL versus NFL: the Super Bowls
Lots of new data added to the site »
Adjusting quarterback win-loss records, part I
Posted by Doug on Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Last summer I wrote a post that rated field goal kickers according to their accuracy compared to league average. And I also adjusted each kicker’s field goal percentage to account for the distance of his attempts. If one kicker attempted a bunch of chippies while another was kicking a lot more long ones, then we should take that into account when comparing their percentages.

This is highly non-controversial. Obvious even.

So we’re going to do it again. But instead of kickers, we’ll look at quarterbacks. Instead of field goal percentage, we’ll look at winning percentage. And as our measure of difficulty, we won’t use distance but points allowed by the quarterback’s team. Just as kicking a 45-yarder is more difficult than kicking a 23-yarder, it’s harder for a quarterback to win a game if his defense gives up 30 than if they give up 10.

Highly non-controversial, right?

So here’s the plan, which mirrors the kicker plan exactly:

STEP 1: compute each quarterback’s winning percentage in each of six categories: (1) defense allows 0–10 points, (2) defense allows 11–15 points, (3) defense allows 16–20 points, (4) defense allows 21–25 points, (5) defense allows 26–33 points, and (6) defense allows 34+ points.

STEP 2: in each category, compute how many games that quarterback won compared to how many an average QB would have been expected to win.

STEP 3: sum up the QB’s wins above or below average, across all six categories.

Let’s run through Joe Namath as an example:

defense allows 0–10 points: Joe was the beneficiary of this kind of defensive performance 17 times. An average QB would be expected to win 15.9 of 17 games. Joe went 17-0. So he’s +1.1 wins.

defense allows 11–15 points: 18 games. Joe is 16-2. An average QB would win 13.7. So Joe is +2.3 here.

defense allows 16–20 points: 23 games. Joe is 13-10. An average QB would win 12.1. So Joe is +0.9.

defense allows 21–25 points: 25 games. Joe is 10-15. An average QB would win 9.7. So Joe is +0.3.

defense allows 26–33 points: 24 games. Joe is 6-18. An average QB would win 4.1. So Joe is +1.9.

defense allows 34+ points: 25 games. Joe is 2-23. An average QB would win 0.9. So Joe is +1.1.

Add it all up (and ignore the rounding error) and Namath comes out at +7.6. Do that for every quarterback who has started 50 or more games since 1950 and you get the following list. Lots of commentary and fine print below:

G W ExpW Diff
=========================================
Peyton Manning 191 124 92.8 +31.2
John Elway 252 162 134.5 +27.5
Tom Brady 128 101 73.9 +27.1
Brett Favre 291 181 154.7 +26.3
Dan Marino 258 155 129.8 +25.2
Joe Montana 187 133 109.1 +23.9
Ken Stabler 158 103 80.7 +22.3
Johnny Unitas 194 124 106.7 +17.3
Daryle Lamonica 97 70 53.1 +16.9
Jim Kelly 177 110 93.2 +16.8
Steve Young 157 102 85.8 +16.2
Roger Staubach 131 96 79.9 +16.1
Norm Van Brocklin 105 63 47.7 +15.3
Terry Bradshaw 177 121 106.3 +14.7
Dan Fouts 178 89 76.4 +12.6
Randall Cunningham 144 85 72.8 +12.2
Danny White 102 67 55.5 +11.5
Bobby Layne 139 83 71.6 +11.4
Kurt Warner 112 65 53.6 +11.4
Y.A. Tittle 139 78 66.8 +11.2
Frank Ryan 90 58 47.8 +10.2
Bill Nelsen 79 42 32.1 +9.9
Fran Tarkenton 250 130 120.1 +9.9
Otto Graham 78 61 51.3 +9.7
Stan Humphries 87 53 43.7 +9.3
Joe Theismann 132 83 74.3 +8.7
Jeff Hostetler 88 55 46.6 +8.4
Steve McNair 163 96 87.7 +8.3
Ben Roethlisberger 81 59 51.0 +8.0
Rich Gannon 139 80 72.3 +7.7
Steve Grogan 138 75 67.4 +7.6
Joe Namath 132 64 56.4 +7.6
Dave Krieg 184 101 93.6 +7.4
Drew Brees 109 56 48.7 +7.3
Matt Hasselbeck 112 62 54.8 +7.2
Bert Jones 99 47 40.1 +6.9
Jim Hart 182 87 80.1 +6.9
Trent Green 115 56 49.1 +6.9
Philip Rivers 54 36 29.2 +6.8
Jake Delhomme 89 55 48.2 +6.8
Marc Bulger 90 41 34.2 +6.8
Jay Schroeder 104 64 57.6 +6.4
Mark Rypien 85 52 45.6 +6.4
Eli Manning 78 46 39.8 +6.2
Ed Brown 98 55 49.1 +5.9
Charley Johnson 124 59 53.2 +5.8
Billy Kilmer 121 63 57.3 +5.7
John Brodie 164 76 70.6 +5.4
Don Meredith 89 49 43.7 +5.3
Warren Moon 213 105 100.2 +4.8
Brian Sipe 113 57 52.2 +4.8
Jack Kemp 111 67 62.4 +4.6
Jim Plunkett 154 80 75.4 +4.6
George Blanda 108 55 50.5 +4.5
Dan Pastorini 122 59 54.6 +4.4
Tony Eason 56 31 26.9 +4.1
Daunte Culpepper 99 43 38.9 +4.1
Bob Griese 162 98 94.1 +3.9
Sonny Jurgensen 149 69 65.1 +3.9
Troy Aikman 180 105 101.3 +3.7
Phil Simms 169 101 97.3 +3.7
Len Dawson 167 99 95.6 +3.4
Earl Morrall 108 67 63.6 +3.4
Neil Lomax 102 47 43.7 +3.3
Bart Starr 167 103 99.7 +3.3
David Woodley 58 37 33.8 +3.2
Boomer Esiason 178 83 79.8 +3.2
Jim Zorn 106 44 40.9 +3.1
Jim McMahon 103 70 66.9 +3.1
Michael Vick 71 40 36.9 +3.1
Jake Plummer 142 71 68.1 +2.9
Donovan McNabb 143 91 88.5 +2.5
Jeff Garcia 122 60 57.6 +2.4
Wade Wilson 74 38 35.6 +2.4
Charlie Conerly 92 58 55.7 +2.3
Marc Wilson 61 32 29.7 +2.3
Neil O'Donnell 107 58 55.7 +2.3
Brad Johnson 132 76 74.1 +1.9
Bobby Hebert 103 56 54.1 +1.9
Rodney Peete 89 46 44.2 +1.8
Brian Griese 83 45 43.3 +1.7
Mike Phipps 73 38 36.3 +1.7
Pat Haden 60 37 35.5 +1.5
Mike Tomczak 78 45 43.5 +1.5
Roman Gabriel 159 86 84.8 +1.2
Vince Ferragamo 59 30 28.8 +1.2
Babe Parilli 104 50 48.9 +1.1
Tom Flores 67 31 30.1 +0.9
Kordell Stewart 86 50 49.1 +0.9
Gus Frerotte 95 45 44.2 +0.8
Tobin Rote 119 51 50.2 +0.8
Elvis Grbac 73 41 40.2 +0.8
Carson Palmer 66 32 31.4 +0.6
Aaron Brooks 92 39 38.5 +0.5
Billy Wade 86 41 40.7 +0.3
Ken Anderson 178 93 92.7 +0.3
Craig Morton 154 86 85.8 +0.2
Doug Flutie 68 38 37.9 +0.1
John Hadl 169 82 82.0 +0.0
Jeff Blake 100 39 39.0 -0.0
Tommy Kramer 114 56 56.0 -0.0
Mark Brunell 160 83 83.1 -0.1
Erik Kramer 70 32 32.4 -0.4
Jay Fiedler 63 38 38.4 -0.4
Scott Mitchell 73 32 32.5 -0.5
Bernie Kosar 115 56 56.6 -0.6
Chad Pennington 83 45 45.8 -0.8
Don Majkowski 57 26 26.8 -0.8
Steve Bartkowski 131 60 60.9 -0.9
Bubby Brister 77 38 39.4 -1.4
Jon Kitna 116 46 47.5 -1.5
Richard Todd 112 50 51.5 -1.5
Milt Plum 103 56 57.9 -1.9
Chris Chandler 155 69 71.0 -2.0
Bob Avellini 51 23 25.8 -2.8
Gary Danielson 61 28 31.0 -3.0
Eric Hipple 58 28 31.1 -3.1
Ken O'Brien 112 50 53.2 -3.2
Jim Everett 158 66 69.3 -3.3
Bill Kenney 77 34 37.7 -3.7
Joe Kapp 52 26 29.8 -3.8
Jeff George 127 47 51.0 -4.0
Mark Malone 55 24 28.0 -4.0
Joe Ferguson 175 80 84.3 -4.3
Dave M. Brown 60 26 30.8 -4.8
Chris Miller 94 35 39.8 -4.8
Kerry Collins 171 82 86.9 -4.9
Mike Livingston 75 31 36.0 -5.0
Drew Bledsoe 199 101 106.1 -5.1
Greg Landry 99 44 49.1 -5.1
Eddie LeBaron 81 26 31.3 -5.3
Tim Couch 59 22 27.5 -5.5
Steve Beuerlein 104 48 53.6 -5.6
Cotton Davidson 54 20 25.7 -5.7
Lynn Dickey 113 46 51.7 -5.7
Rick Mirer 68 24 29.8 -5.8
Bob Berry 52 20 25.8 -5.8
Doug Williams 88 42 47.8 -5.8
Bill Munson 66 27 33.2 -6.2
Jim Harbaugh 145 68 74.7 -6.7
Bobby Douglass 53 16 22.8 -6.8
Trent Dilfer 119 63 69.8 -6.8
Mike Pagel 54 17 23.8 -6.8
Tony Banks 78 35 41.9 -6.9
Lamar McHan 73 24 31.0 -7.0
Steve DeBerg 144 54 61.2 -7.2
Ron Jaworski 151 77 86.4 -9.4
Norm Snead 158 52 61.6 -9.6
Joey Harrington 76 26 36.2 -10.2
David Carr 79 23 34.1 -11.1
Vinny Testaverde 219 92 103.4 -11.4
Archie Manning 139 35 52.4 -17.4