Thread: Is Cutler a winner?

I posted this in another thread already, but I think it's deserving of its own thread, that way more people will get the chance to see it.

Check this site out... http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1808

STEP 1: compute each quarterback’s winning percentage in each of six categories: (1) defense allows 0–10 points, (2) defense allows 11–15 points, (3) defense allows 16–20 points, (4) defense allows 21–25 points, (5) defense allows 26–33 points, and (6) defense allows 34+ points.

STEP 2: in each category, compute how many games that quarterback won compared to how many an average QB would have been expected to win.

STEP 3: sum up the QB’s wins above or below average, across all six categories.

Let’s run through Joe Namath as an example:

defense allows 0–10 points: Joe was the beneficiary of this kind of defensive performance 17 times. An average QB would be expected to win 15.9 of 17 games. Joe went 17-0. So he’s +1.1 wins.

defense allows 11–15 points: 18 games. Joe is 16-2. An average QB would win 13.7. So Joe is +2.3 here.

defense allows 16–20 points: 23 games. Joe is 13-10. An average QB would win 12.1. So Joe is +0.9.

defense allows 21–25 points: 25 games. Joe is 10-15. An average QB would win 9.7. So Joe is +0.3.

defense allows 26–33 points: 24 games. Joe is 6-18. An average QB would win 4.1. So Joe is +1.9.

defense allows 34+ points: 25 games. Joe is 2-23. An average QB would win 0.9. So Joe is +1.1.

Add it all up (and ignore the rounding error) and Namath comes out at +7.6. Do that for every quarterback who has started 50 or more games since 1950 and you get the following list. Lots of commentary and fine print below:

G W ExpW Diff
=========================================
Peyton Manning 191 124 92.8 +31.2
John Elway 252 162 134.5 +27.5
Tom Brady 128 101 73.9 +27.1
Brett Favre 291 181 154.7 +26.3
Dan Marino 258 155 129.8 +25.2
Joe Montana 187 133 109.1 +23.9
Ken Stabler 158 103 80.7 +22.3
Johnny Unitas 194 124 106.7 +17.3
Daryle Lamonica 97 70 53.1 +16.9
Jim Kelly 177 110 93.2 +16.8
Steve Young 157 102 85.8 +16.2
Roger Staubach 131 96 79.9 +16.1
Norm Van Brocklin 105 63 47.7 +15.3
Terry Bradshaw 177 121 106.3 +14.7
Dan Fouts 178 89 76.4 +12.6
Randall Cunningham 144 85 72.8 +12.2
Danny White 102 67 55.5 +11.5
Bobby Layne 139 83 71.6 +11.4
Kurt Warner 112 65 53.6 +11.4
Y.A. Tittle 139 78 66.8 +11.2
Frank Ryan 90 58 47.8 +10.2
Bill Nelsen 79 42 32.1 +9.9
Fran Tarkenton 250 130 120.1 +9.9
Otto Graham 78 61 51.3 +9.7
Stan Humphries 87 53 43.7 +9.3
Joe Theismann 132 83 74.3 +8.7
Jeff Hostetler 88 55 46.6 +8.4
Steve McNair 163 96 87.7 +8.3
Ben Roethlisberger 81 59 51.0 +8.0
Rich Gannon 139 80 72.3 +7.7
Steve Grogan 138 75 67.4 +7.6
Joe Namath 132 64 56.4 +7.6
Dave Krieg 184 101 93.6 +7.4
Drew Brees 109 56 48.7 +7.3
Matt Hasselbeck 112 62 54.8 +7.2
Bert Jones 99 47 40.1 +6.9
Jim Hart 182 87 80.1 +6.9
Trent Green 115 56 49.1 +6.9
Philip Rivers 54 36 29.2 +6.8
Jake Delhomme 89 55 48.2 +6.8
Marc Bulger 90 41 34.2 +6.8
Jay Schroeder 104 64 57.6 +6.4
Mark Rypien 85 52 45.6 +6.4
Eli Manning 78 46 39.8 +6.2
Ed Brown 98 55 49.1 +5.9
Charley Johnson 124 59 53.2 +5.8
Billy Kilmer 121 63 57.3 +5.7
John Brodie 164 76 70.6 +5.4
Don Meredith 89 49 43.7 +5.3
Warren Moon 213 105 100.2 +4.8
Brian Sipe 113 57 52.2 +4.8
Jack Kemp 111 67 62.4 +4.6
Jim Plunkett 154 80 75.4 +4.6
George Blanda 108 55 50.5 +4.5
Dan Pastorini 122 59 54.6 +4.4
Tony Eason 56 31 26.9 +4.1
Daunte Culpepper 99 43 38.9 +4.1
Bob Griese 162 98 94.1 +3.9
Sonny Jurgensen 149 69 65.1 +3.9
Troy Aikman 180 105 101.3 +3.7
Phil Simms 169 101 97.3 +3.7
Len Dawson 167 99 95.6 +3.4
Earl Morrall 108 67 63.6 +3.4
Neil Lomax 102 47 43.7 +3.3
Bart Starr 167 103 99.7 +3.3
David Woodley 58 37 33.8 +3.2
Boomer Esiason 178 83 79.8 +3.2
Jim Zorn 106 44 40.9 +3.1
Jim McMahon 103 70 66.9 +3.1
Michael Vick 71 40 36.9 +3.1
Jake Plummer 142 71 68.1 +2.9
Donovan McNabb 143 91 88.5 +2.5
Jeff Garcia 122 60 57.6 +2.4
Wade Wilson 74 38 35.6 +2.4
Charlie Conerly 92 58 55.7 +2.3
Marc Wilson 61 32 29.7 +2.3
Neil O'Donnell 107 58 55.7 +2.3
Brad Johnson 132 76 74.1 +1.9
Bobby Hebert 103 56 54.1 +1.9
Rodney Peete 89 46 44.2 +1.8
Brian Griese 83 45 43.3 +1.7
Mike Phipps 73 38 36.3 +1.7
Pat Haden 60 37 35.5 +1.5
Mike Tomczak 78 45 43.5 +1.5
Roman Gabriel 159 86 84.8 +1.2
Vince Ferragamo 59 30 28.8 +1.2
Babe Parilli 104 50 48.9 +1.1
Tom Flores 67 31 30.1 +0.9
Kordell Stewart 86 50 49.1 +0.9
Gus Frerotte 95 45 44.2 +0.8
Tobin Rote 119 51 50.2 +0.8
Elvis Grbac 73 41 40.2 +0.8
Carson Palmer 66 32 31.4 +0.6
Aaron Brooks 92 39 38.5 +0.5
Billy Wade 86 41 40.7 +0.3
Ken Anderson 178 93 92.7 +0.3
Craig Morton 154 86 85.8 +0.2
Doug Flutie 68 38 37.9 +0.1
John Hadl 169 82 82.0 +0.0
Jeff Blake 100 39 39.0 -0.0
Tommy Kramer 114 56 56.0 -0.0
Mark Brunell 160 83 83.1 -0.1
Erik Kramer 70 32 32.4 -0.4
Jay Fiedler 63 38 38.4 -0.4
Scott Mitchell 73 32 32.5 -0.5
Bernie Kosar 115 56 56.6 -0.6
Chad Pennington 83 45 45.8 -0.8
Don Majkowski 57 26 26.8 -0.8
Steve Bartkowski 131 60 60.9 -0.9
Bubby Brister 77 38 39.4 -1.4
Jon Kitna 116 46 47.5 -1.5
Richard Todd 112 50 51.5 -1.5
Milt Plum 103 56 57.9 -1.9
Chris Chandler 155 69 71.0 -2.0
Bob Avellini 51 23 25.8 -2.8
Gary Danielson 61 28 31.0 -3.0
Eric Hipple 58 28 31.1 -3.1
Ken O'Brien 112 50 53.2 -3.2
Jim Everett 158 66 69.3 -3.3
Bill Kenney 77 34 37.7 -3.7
Joe Kapp 52 26 29.8 -3.8
Jeff George 127 47 51.0 -4.0
Mark Malone 55 24 28.0 -4.0
Joe Ferguson 175 80 84.3 -4.3
Dave M. Brown 60 26 30.8 -4.8
Chris Miller 94 35 39.8 -4.8
Kerry Collins 171 82 86.9 -4.9
Mike Livingston 75 31 36.0 -5.0
Drew Bledsoe 199 101 106.1 -5.1
Greg Landry 99 44 49.1 -5.1
Eddie LeBaron 81 26 31.3 -5.3
Tim Couch 59 22 27.5 -5.5
Steve Beuerlein 104 48 53.6 -5.6
Cotton Davidson 54 20 25.7 -5.7
Lynn Dickey 113 46 51.7 -5.7
Rick Mirer 68 24 29.8 -5.8
Bob Berry 52 20 25.8 -5.8
Doug Williams 88 42 47.8 -5.8
Bill Munson 66 27 33.2 -6.2
Jim Harbaugh 145 68 74.7 -6.7
Bobby Douglass 53 16 22.8 -6.8
Trent Dilfer 119 63 69.8 -6.8
Mike Pagel 54 17 23.8 -6.8
Tony Banks 78 35 41.9 -6.9
Lamar McHan 73 24 31.0 -7.0
Steve DeBerg 144 54 61.2 -7.2
Ron Jaworski 151 77 86.4 -9.4
Norm Snead 158 52 61.6 -9.6
Joey Harrington 76 26 36.2 -10.2
David Carr 79 23 34.1 -11.1
Vinny Testaverde 219 92 103.4 -11.4
Archie Manning 139 35 52.4 -17.4

I was able to break his formula down with his Joe Namath example.

Here is how it works.

When the defense gives up 0 - 10 the QB should win 0.935 of the time.
When the defense gives up 11 - 15 the QB should win 0.761 of the time.
When the defense gives up 16 - 20 the QB should win 0.526 of the time.
When the defense gives up 21 - 25 the QB should win 0.388 of the time.
When the defense gives up 26 - 33 the QB should win 0.170 of the time.
When the defense gives up 34 + the QB should win 0.036 of the time.

So what you do is Times the total # of games in each group by the % in each group, then add them all together. Then subtract that from the total # of games actually won by the QB. If the QB is a + he is winning more then he should. If he is a -, he is losing more then he should..

How did Cutler add up? With this formula, Cutler should have won 12.1 of the 37 games he started. He actually won 17 so he won roughly 5 (4.841) more games then he should have been able to.

When you compare him to the others on the list, remember he has only played in 37 total games. Compared to Elway’s 252 and Manning’s 191. To put things in perspective, if we times Cutlers 37 by 6 = 222. Now times Cutler’s + 4.841 by 6, that = + 29.0..

Also, using this formula, with the average NFL QB the Broncos should have won just under 5 games last year (4.8). So with Cutler under center, the Broncos won 3 more games last year over what the average NFL QB would be expected to win.


The findings are clear. Cutler is winning more games then he should be able to win with this defense.

*Edit* I felt it important for everyone to understand what they mean when they say average NFL QB. This isn't just field run guys who were drafted to play QB. The average comes from what NFL QB's who have played in 50 or more games have been able to do. So in other words. That is a carrier starter or a guy who was good enough to start for at least 50 games.

Great article but ive been pretty much saying this same thing all along. But i like the research you did. Good stuff.

Looks like you put a lot of time into that...good work.

However...17-20 speaks volume's.

Like I said in the other thread...if Cutler finishes say 78-110 for his career but makes the HOF, will it have an * next too it to explain why he was soooo good but had a losing record?

Originally Posted by Watchthemiddle

Looks like you put a lot of time into that...good work.

However...17-20 speaks volume's.

Like I said in the other thread...if Cutler finishes say 78-110 for his career but makes the HOF, will it have an * next too it to explain why he was soooo good but had a losing record?

He's a Bronco. We wont have to worry about him getting in the HOF anywho.

Great post... The haters dont see it like this though.... they dont understand that when you have one of the worst defenses of alltime you arent gonna win many games

Denver winning 8 games with that horrible defense is amazing in my opinion.

Ive said this for years judging a quarterback on wins is the dumbest thing you can do.

He won the Indiana State Championship in high school....


Also, good research and post.

WOW!! Amazing thread with amazing facts and amazing findings. We could all learn alot from this. Especially the Cutler haters. Come to think of it, McDaniels could learn alot from this thread.

A slight problem with your math. Read the fine print.

2. You might be wondering about era/league effects. It’s easier to win if your defense allows 20 points in the 1961 AFL than it is to win if you defense allows 20 points in the 1974 NFL. Though I didn’t mention it above, I actually did attempt to account for this. What I did was to compute the “average quarterback’s expected wins” for a given category by looking at all games in that category in the same league within two years. For example, if I’m examining Joe Namath’s 1966 season, the expected winning percentage for category (1) games, e.g., is computed by looking at all category (1) AFL games from 1964 to 1968.

So by using Namath's data you are using the old 1964 data.

Naysayers will replace the facts with emotions, but this should be another nail in the coffin anyway. Nice job.

It's a good article.

I can see now why he thinks he's too good to go to offseason workouts with his teammates.

Originally Posted by NameUsedBefore

Naysayers will replace the facts with emotions, but this should be another nail in the coffin anyway. Nice job.

Replacing facts with emotions...kind of like what Jay is doing right now. ....

Originally Posted by Watchthemiddle

Looks like you put a lot of time into that...good work.

However...17-20 speaks volume's.

You're right. It says the DENVER BRONCOS have been pretty crappy over the last few years.

Time will tell! He needs to put in the time necessary to become an elite quarterback. He's got all the talent in the world. It's up to him if he wants to become the next Elway or the next Jeff George!!

A poster at the Colts forum found a flaw in that this doesn't take into account the fact that if a QB played more games then he could have a larger sum than another QB who played at the same level for fewer games.

To correct for this I took a percent difference. I took the difference and divided it by the expected wins.

So for the articles data.

Peyton Manning 191 124 92.8 +31.2
John Elway 252 162 134.5 +27.5
Tom Brady 128 101 73.9 +27.1
Brett Favre 291 181 154.7 +26.3
Dan Marino 258 155 129.8 +25.2
Joe Montana 187 133 109.1 +23.9

Manning 31.2/92.8 = +34%
Elway 27.5/134.5 = +20%
Brady 27.1/73.9 = +37%
Farve 26.3/154.7 = +17%
Marino 25.2/129.8 = +19%
Montana 23.9/109.1 = +22%

Now if we take the Cutler data above ignoring the error I previously posted.

4.8/12.1 = 40%

If you see a problem with my math let me know, but otherwise don't complain to me if you don't like the numbers.

There is nothing like a statistical circle jerk, is there?

Jay Cutler is the best quarterback in the league.