Thread: 11 Game Audition Rating

Originally Posted by elsid13

He is statical below average (C grade).

So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.

Pretty interesting but only further makes me think he wont be the answer here. Unfortuantely, as Clay says, he's done enough to warrant the team keeping him another year at least but i think he will need to have a good game vs Pitt to keep the FO from keeping the job open at the beginning of next season.

Originally Posted by catfish

That is your opinion and it is valid, just as MO has his opinion and it is equally valid, lets please have 1 thread that people can just state their thoughts without it turning into a big deal. I haven't seen a single really truly outlandish stance here

Great post.

Originally Posted by catfish

using standard deviation of a worthless stat doesn't show anyting, use a stat that matter and show the deviation

hahaha...completion percentage is a worthless stat? Let me know what stat you'd like to use? How about yards per attempt. He was above Curtis Painter in that stat at 26th in the league.

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

Well, the issue about college is a valid one Joe. At the college level he isnt facing 11 allstars on other other side of the field. He may be facing 4-5 future NFL players tops while playing at college. So when he gets to the NFL the game is not only faster but the talent level is far superior not only in coverage but in pass rush, etc. I mean, JMac, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, all of them did very well in college and all of them knew how to pass in college. Once they reach the NFL though its a whole different animal.

Originally Posted by dunk7

I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

I'd be completely fine with it. Because of the wins, the marquee QBs are going to be off the board and Flynn's not coming here--this team doesn't pay anyone. There are still huge, truly inexcusable holes all over this roster.

I'd be fine with Denver using all of next year's picks doing other things. Outside of LB and kickers, it would be hard to argue against any position selection.

I personally still see the team as years away from being a true playoff contender. Other than Von Miller, this team really didn't fill many holes in the last draft IMO. The output of our secondary selections last year are in particular extremely disappointing.

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

Here's what I just don't get:

How does a guy who threw over 1,000 passes in college for a 66% completion rate and 9,200+ yards with 88 TD's and only 16 INT's not be able to throw anymore?

This is a serious question, and don't give me the college doesn't compare to the NFL. That's obvious, but CLEARLY he can throw the football, and have success doing it. What is the reason?

You answered your own question even if you don't want to talk about it.

Timmy Chang, Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, David Klinger, Danny Wuerffel and David Carr could all sling the football too, and extremely accurately in college.

It IS the speed of the game.

Originally Posted by dunk7

Good retort but what did the Chargers do after that bad season by Brees...Went out and drafted a QB in the first round. I'm just saying that I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

that wont happen, elway will look at tannehill, Foles and Weeden in rds 2 and 3, and EFX will want a good vet to....believe it or not I like david garrard as a vet here next year.....he has won big games before....and i know he knows the ups and downs of the pros.....


I pretty sure Tebow will enter next year as the starter, backed by garrard or someone like tannehil or Weeden.....a vet will be in play as Number 2 or 3 and it wont be quinn. Weber on the PS as well.....

Originally Posted by dunk7

Good retort but what did the Chargers do after that bad season by Brees...Went out and drafted a QB in the first round. I'm just saying that I'll be very disappointed if we go into next season with Tebow, Quinn and some project 7th rounder just because we got really lucky in 6 games this season.

That's not a very good example to bring up.

For very obvious reasons.

Originally Posted by dunk7

hahaha...completion percentage is a worthless stat? Let me know what stat you'd like to use? How about yards per attempt. He was above Curtis Painter in that stat at 26th in the league.

yards per attempt is a much better measure. Sure he is still ranked low, he is a second year QB. At least yards per attempt incorporates difficulty of throw instead of just blindly patting a qb on the back for being able to hit a checkdown or throw a screen pass. If a quarterback is throwing a signinfigant % of longer more difficult passe it will be reflected in his completion % negatively, but will be reflected postively in hie YPA. I have stated before if you want a better view of completion% at least use the splits and adjust for distance like G_money did

I would give him C and it would have been a little higher had Denver won at least one of the last three games but it also be lower had Denver not made the playoffs.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

The only quarterback in Broncos uniform to beat a playoff team this season was Kyle Orton.

The six game stretch was fun, but it's come crashing down, and much of it lies on the fact that Tebow isn't a very good quarterback right now. I wish my eyes saw something different than what elsid's statistical analysis shows, but they don't.

It's not just three bad games, quarterbackwise, it's been one decent game, two or so slightly below average games and eight bad games.

Overall, I'd give him a C-, because of the wins, but they feel like anamolies, more than the norm.

True but it's the only game Denver won with him at quarterback this year.

Well, IF I'm gonna do this do, I'll do it like I usually do for a game or seasons worth of stats: QBR. Before doing so I want to be VERY clear about several things:

1) That's the same way I'd have done it last year absent greater more urgent priorities, the same way I've done it every year I've bothered since 2006; that it happens to benefit Tebow is incidental.

2) The aforementioned "benefit" is indirect and ONLY IN COMPARISON TO OTHER QBS: Because QBR includes rushing along with sacks and fumbles, Tebow suffers less than most other QBs.

3) The value of lost fumbles has been updated from 1.5Xinterceptions to 14/9Xinterceptions due to a previously undetected actuarial error.

The formula used is a modification of PR, thus:

20(Completions+Positive Rushes)+(All Yards)+80(All TDs)-100(Interceptions+1.55...XFumbles Lost)X100/24+50/24
All Attempts+Sacks

Basically, the NFL Passer Rating formula with rushing stats included. Accordingly, I must first update the stats MasterShake helpfully provided:

@ MIA 13/27 161 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 6 Sks 30 Sk Yds 9 Rushes 59 Rush Yds 0 TDs 0/1 Fum Lost PR 91.7 QBR 80.5 W 18-15 Grade B

VS DET 18/39 172 Yards 1 TD 1 INT 7 Sks 55 Sk Yds 10 Rushes 63 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/3 Fum Lost PR 56.8 QBR 44.1 L 10-45 Grade F

@ OAK 10/21 124 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 1 Sk 11 Sk Yds 13 Rushes 118 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 0 Fum PR 98.1 QBR 103.4 W 38-24 Grade A+

@ KC 2/8 69 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 0 Sks 0 Sk Yds 9 Rushes 43 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 0 Fum PR 100.5 QBR 122.7 W 17-10 Grade A+

vs NJY 9/20 104 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 1 Sk 0 Sk Yds* 8 Rushes 68 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 0 Fum PR 61.3 QBR 87.1 W 17-13 Grade A-

@ SD 9/18 143 Yards 1 TD 0 INT 1 Sks 2 Sk Yds 22 Rushes 67 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 0/1 Fum Lost PR 95.4 QBR 94.4 W 16-13 Grade A

@ MIN 10/15 202 Yards 2 TD 0 INT 2 Sks 16 Sk Yds 4 Rushes 13 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/1 Fum Lost PR 158.2** QBR 98 W 35-32 Grade A

vs CHI 21/40 236 Yards 1 TD 1 INT 5 Sks 15 Sk Yds 12 Rushes 49 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/2 Fum Lost PR 68.3 QBR 57.2 W 13-10 Grade D-

vs NE 11/22 194 Yards 0 TD 0 INT 4 Sks 53 Sk Yds 12 Rushes 93 Rush Yds 2 Rush TDs 1/2 Fum Lost PR 80.5 QBR 78.7 L 23-41 Grade B-

@ BUF 13/29 185 Yards 1 TD 3 INT 4 Sks 33 Sk Yds 10 Rushes 34 Rush Yds 1 Rush TD 1/2 Fum Lost PR 34.4 QBR 36 L 40-14 Grade F

vs KC 6/22 60 Yards 0 TD 1 INT 2 Sks 10 Sk Yds 6 Rushes 16 Rush Yds 0 Rush TDs 1/1 Fum Lost PR 17.2 QBR 9.1 L 3-7 Grade F

Season: 126/271 passing for 1729 yds, 12 TDs and 6 Ints, with 33 sacks for 225 yds; 121 rushes for 661 yds (5.5 YPA) and 6 TDs, losing 6/13 fumbles. PR: 72.9 QBR 70.8 7-4-0 Grade C

*I don't know how he had 1 sack for 0 yds against NY either; take it up with the NFL.
**The NFL caps each all but one PR category, and against Minnesota Tebow exceeded the cap on YPA and TD%; the PR shown here is uncapped.

http://www.nfl.com/player/timtebow/497135/gamelogs

I've also swapped my grades on Tebow for MasterShakes where appropriate. They're subject to an "NFL curve" that places 10 of 50 starting 2011 in each group, with the top 3 in each group getting a + and the bottom 3 a - (and which I admit I haven't updated since Thanksgiving.) Luke McCown is dead last with a QBR of 31, which gives you an idea of just how bad Tebows last two games were. Tebows season rating is a solid C though, right between and Mark Sanchez at 26th (71.5) and Carson Palmer at 27th (69.8.)

So he's middle of the pack among this years starting QBs (it should be noted that includes ANY starter; Matt Leinart is second only to Rodgers: He only played half a game, but he STARTED.) Among second year QBs or first year starters I'd guess he'd rank a lot higher, but those are small enough samples I wouldn't place much weight on them. Good enough I want to seem him start next year, but if he comes out flat and turns in more QBRs in the 30s (or single digits ) it'll be time to make a change. I'm pretty sure Brady Quinn and most draft picks could consistently manage a QBR>9.1.

Originally Posted by Elevation inc

that wont happen, elway will look at tannehill, Foles and Weeden in rds 2 and 3, and EFX will want a good vet to....believe it or not I like david garrard as a vet here next year.....he has won big games before....and i know he knows the ups and downs of the pros.....

I pretty sure Tebow will enter next year as the starter, backed by garrard or someone like tannehil or Weeden.....a vet will be in play as Number 2 or 3 and it wont be quinn. Weber on the PS as well.....

The thing about Garrard (or McNabb, whom I'd still prefer) is that he's been where Tebow is and successfully transitioned to a QB who primarily passed but remained capable of called runs. That means

1) He could give Tebow the benefit of his experience learning the same skills from the same starting point,

2) We wouldn't lose any of Tebows playbook if he was hurt for a month or two and

3) Elway and the coaches wouldn't be splitting their time and attention between intensive development of TWO big projects at QB.

Also, an injury wouldn't leave us trying to get back to the playoffs in the same situation we'd be in now: Tebow is hurt; do we throw Weber out there or go with the "veteran" Brady Quinn? Perhaps as importantly, we're not likely to get into a QB controversy with Tebow and Garrard/McNabb, because they and everyone else knows they'll be at home drawing their pension in a year or two. Worst case scenario, Tebow bombs next year and we try to get back to the playoffs with a seasoned vet who can run our playbook, then find the long term solution in the next draft.

I would go with the crowd and give him a C as well. However...I have a feeling that may be as high as he'll ever get. I expect he'll improve in a few areas, but I dont see him ever being a top QB. If he is going to be the starter, he's going to need one hell of a supporting cast around him because he's just not skilled enough to do it on his own.

Sure...he lead us to a few crazy wins this year, but is it realistic to expect that can happen every year? I think the league catches up with the "gimmick" Tebow. It's up to him to show he can burn defenses with his arm. If not...he's doomed Personally, I'm not sold that he can do it