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Thread: 11 Game Audition Rating

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    I'm with layne - I'd rate him higher for the NE game, but other than that I agree with Shake almost exactly. Final grade C+. I want to see more, which is not how I felt about Kyle Orton.
    Agree. I was impressed with the NE game.

  2. #17
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    11 games SMH, Tebow get's that and 3 last year so a little under one season under his belt. Has the team in the playoffs because he helped them win the division, but because of his last 3 games we should dump him? Bring in competition?

    Let's get him a legit TE and a speedy back plus an offseason with the coaches and the asses his year.

    But since you want to rate his 11 games this year I would say a average C. His comebacks put him up too A+ but his last 3 games and Miami/Lions game where F's. SO it averages out. We know he can throw he did it last year as a rookie i'm sure it's in him I just don't know why he can't show that again. What's the difference? The world may never know
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  3. #18
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    I think the NE grade should be higher, 8.82 ypa is pretty damn good. I feel a C is fair based on the timing of the step back


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  4. #19

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    The book is out on Tebow...Keep him in the pocket and he's doomed to fail. Last 3 games has CLEARLY demonstrated that (though I think we saw glimpses in almost every game) and I hate to say it but I think we'll see a 4th this weekend.

    If I told you, without knowing the player, you had a second year QB with a QB rating of 72.9 (ranked just above Sexy Rexy), averages 124 pass yards per game, and he's the guaranteed starter next season, I doubt anyone would be fine with that.

  5. #20
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    the Minny game fooled me but I can see clearly now... the Broncos need a QB bad


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  7. #21
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    good thing fans dont make the decisions and being in the playoffs and having a non losing record will mean more to EFX then the stats of season. They also understand the fact they have a young QB who needs work. Tebow will still be starting QB next year and will have to make big strides in off season/TC to keep that role.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dunk7 View Post
    If I told you, without knowing the player, you had a second year QB with a QB rating of 72.9 (ranked just above Sexy Rexy), averages 124 pass yards per game, and he's the guaranteed starter next season, I doubt anyone would be fine with that.
    Drew Brees, 2nd year playing (3rd actual year in the league) : 2-9 record, 191 ypg passing, 67.5 rating, more INTs than TDs.

    Steve McNair, first full starting year (3rd year in the league): 8-8 record, 166 ypg passing, 70.4 rating, 1 more TD than INT (52% comp rate, btw).

    Sure, without names they have terrible lines and no future.

    Sometimes names are important. Some raw but talented players do improve.

    The call is whether Tebow is more Jared Lorenzen than Steve McNair. I lean toward McNair, so his numbers aren't scaring me - yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by G_Money View Post
    Drew Brees, 2nd year playing (3rd actual year in the league) : 2-9 record, 191 ypg passing, 67.5 rating, more INTs than TDs.

    Steve McNair, first full starting year (3rd year in the league): 8-8 record, 166 ypg passing, 70.4 rating, 1 more TD than INT (52% comp rate, btw).

    Sure, without names they have terrible lines and no future.

    Sometimes names are important. Some raw but talented players do improve.

    The call is whether Tebow is more Jared Lorenzen than Steve McNair. I lean toward McNair, so his numbers aren't scaring me - yet.

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    People only see the stats they want and get hung up on others. They dont see a young QB. They see the Bronco QB who should be up to par with rest of league.

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  11. #24
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    He is statical below average (C grade).

    So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

    I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

    So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

    I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.
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  13. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by elsid13 View Post
    He is statical below average (C grade).

    So last night after a heated "discussion" on the mane, I did some quick and dirty statical analysis. I ran the numbers to compare all QB completion percentage for the last 5 year (2011 to 2006 season). Of the 193 qualified QB data points (QB with over 200 throws) Tebow ranks dead last on completion percentage of 46.5%. 2009 Russell is the next QB with comp rate at 48.8%. Football Outsiders (ESPN Insider) also posted similar analysis back to 2000 just looking completion percentage and only Aklie Smith and Mike McMahon were close, both were out of the league after the threw in 44% to 47% range.

    I then looked at the mean comp rate over the same 5 years which is 60.7% and STDEV is +/-4.7505.

    So Tebow is outside 1 STDEV on the Bell curve on the negative side.

    I only looked at the last 5 years because he playing under similar rules and facing similar football defenses.
    article on why completion % is a misleading stat from profootballfocus.com

    http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog...on-percentage/


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    Quote Originally Posted by catfish View Post
    article on why completion % is a misleading stat from profootballfocus.com

    http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog...on-percentage/
    If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.
    "We saw it…. the hussars let loose their horses. God, what power! They ran through the smoke and the sound was like that of a thousand blacksmiths beating with a thousand hammers

    They rush on to the Swedes! They crash into the Swedish riters…. Overwhelm them! They crash into the second regiment - Overwhelmed! Resistance collapses, dissolves, they move forward as easily as if they were parading on a grand boulevard

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  17. #27
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    When Tebow took the drooping, 1-4 reins of a team developing a loser's mentality with the meat of the schedule just ahead yet, we weren't talking about the playoffs.

    That's my rating.
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  19. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by elsid13 View Post
    If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.
    using standard deviation of a worthless stat doesn't show anyting, use a stat that matter and show the deviation


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  21. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by elsid13 View Post
    If I was just looking at the one stat you are right, but when I normalized it and looked STDEV and Mean, you get better picture of the information. Tebow should be 1 STDEV, even factoring in throw aways and drops when measure against the data set.
    As I said somewhere else, if you normalize our passing offense to have the same # of short throws that every other offense in the NFL has, Tebow's completion % goes up six and a half points.

    That's your standard deviation. Tim is inaccurate, but by forcing him to throw passes that are by definition harder to complete and having the lowest # of "cheap" completion opportunities in football (ten yards and under), his completion problems are magnified.

    Tim should be a 52 or 53 % completion guy for the year. If we just fixed our short-passing game this offseason we'd improve his performance numbers tremendously without him having to do a whole lot of growing.

    Which is why I have hope for this offense for next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NameUsedBefore View Post
    When Tebow took the drooping, 1-4 reins of a team developing a loser's mentality with the meat of the schedule just ahead yet, we weren't talking about the playoffs.

    That's my rating.
    The only quarterback in Broncos uniform to beat a playoff team this season was Kyle Orton.

    The six game stretch was fun, but it's come crashing down, and much of it lies on the fact that Tebow isn't a very good quarterback right now. I wish my eyes saw something different than what elsid's statistical analysis shows, but they don't.

    It's not just three bad games, quarterbackwise, it's been one decent game, two or so slightly below average games and eight bad games.

    Overall, I'd give him a C-, because of the wins, but they feel like anamolies, more than the norm.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

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