Walter updated their mock.
1. Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
JAN. 8 UPDATE: It looks like the Lions will have a decision to make with the No. 1 overall pick, but it won't be between a quarterback and a left tackle. It's pretty much a given, whether Lions fans like it or not, that a signal caller will be chosen. The decision will come between Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford.
Reports indicate that barring injury, Bradford will declare after the UPS-sponsored final winter practice game. Stafford has the stronger arm and higher upside, so he'll look like the more lucrative choice. However, if Bradford has a brilliant game against Florida, that could propel him atop Detroit's draft board.
For now, I'm going Stafford. That could change in my next update. We'll have to see what happens on Thursday night.
DEC. 31 UPDATE: Still Matt Stafford. I've seen a few mocks with Sam Bradford on top, but I don't think Bradford is coming out. He's just a red-shirt sophomore, and Roger Goodell just announced that there won't be a pay decrease next year.
For more on the Stafford-offensive tackle debate, check out one of the past few entries from my 2009 NFL Draft Mailbag.
DEC. 25 UPDATE: Despite numerous e-mails from Lions fans insisting that the correct course of action would be drafting an offensive tackle, I'm still calling for a quarterback. Detroit needs a face for their franchise. They can't get a quarterback with Dallas' selection, but they'll be able to grab a tackle with that pick.
Also, Lions owner William Darth Clay Sidious Ford doesn't really care about winning. He just wants money. What brings in more money than a rookie signal caller? Everyone in Detroit will be lining up to buy the new Matt Stafford jersey, especially if he appears to be as promising as Matt Ryan.
PREVIOUS UPDATES: I'm not saying a left tackle isn't a possibility, but like the Falcons last year, the Lions need a face for their franchise. Right now, that face is Matt Millen, even though he was fired a few months ago. When people think about the Detroit franchise, they think about how Millen helped ruin it.
The Lions can get a quality tackle with Dallas' choice or in the No. 33 slot. Assuming most of the junior quarterbacks remain in school, they won't have the chance to secure a top-rated signal-caller in the 2009 NFL Draft.
NOTE: For the record, I do not have Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Nate Davis or Colt McCoy declaring. If Tebow and McCoy come out early, they could be targeted at Dallas' choice.
2. St. Louis Rams: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
JAN. 8 UPDATE: No surprise that Andre Smith declared for the NFL Draft. He won't be downgraded for his suspension in the Airborne Formula Sugar Bowl. Michael Oher could be chosen here, but I went with Smith because the Rams need an upgrade at right tackle until Orlando Pace moves on. At that point, Smith could shift over or just stay at his position.
DEC. 31 UPDATE: Still Andre Smith. Smith was suspended for Alabama's winter practice game against Utah for talking to an agent. I guess that was Smith's announcement right there, huh? It'll be no surprise when Smith officially declares for the 2009 NFL Draft.
DEC. 25 UPDATE: It should be noted that if the Rams and Chiefs lose this Sunday, they would flip a coin to decide who drafts No. 2 overall.
Some mocks have Aaron Curry going this high. The Rams definitely need a strongside linebacker, but I can't see one going in the top three.
PREVIOUS UPDATES: It's been widely publicized that the Rams were ready to pounce on Jake Long if he slipped past the Dolphins. That's understandable, as the injury-ridden Orlando Pace (yes, he's hurt again - what a surprise) will turn 34 during the early stages of the 2009 season, while oft-penalized Alex Barron looks like he's getting benched in favor of guard Jacob Bell, yet another bust acquisition by the Rams. St. Louis needs to draft an offensive tackle as early as possible.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I'd like to preface this pick by saying that this 2009 NFL Mock Draft is based on what I think will happen; not on what should happen.
If I were running the Chiefs, I'd continue to build around Tyler Thigpen. Thigpen did a remarkable job as the full-time quarterback, commanding Kansas City's offense to 21.6 points per game since Oct. 26. I know he was guilty of a lot of turnovers, but this was essentially his rookie year. He'll continue to get better.
However, I don't think Kansas City's new front office will be able to resist someone of Sam Bradford's caliber. Reports indicate that Bradford is set to declare for the 2009 NFL Draft unless he gets injured in the UPS-sponsored final winter practice game against Florida. Depending on how Bradford plays, they could be switched in my next update.
Pick change; previously Brian Orakpo, DE
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
It's pretty much a lock that the Seahawks will choose Michael Crabtree with this selection. Bobby Engram turns 36 in January, and it looks like he won't be back with the team next year. Matt Hasselbeck needs a dominant weapon to work with. Crabtree undoubtedly fits that description.
5. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, ILB, Wake Forest
With the hiring of Eric Mangini and the continued use of the 3-4 defense, it looks like this selection will come down to one of three players: Brian Orakpo, Aaron Curry or Everette Brown.
The Browns need help throughout their linebacking corps, so either one of the three would make sense.
I'm saying it'll be Curry, who will be an instant upgrade in the middle of the 3-4. Orakpo played poorly in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, while Brown at No. 5 is a bit of a reach right now.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
I find it remarkable that the Bengals finished the year on a 4-3-1 run. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cedric Benson and an inept offensive line that allowed 51 sacks running the show, how did the Bengals win more than two games? Marvin Lewis - Coach of the Year!
In all seriousness, the Bengals need to improve their pass protection if they want to contend next year. With Carson Palmer coming back from his elbow injury, Cincinnati cannot afford to have him get hurt again.
7. Oakland Raiders: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
What was up with the Raiders this year? One week, they look completely horrible. The next, they're debacling playoff-caliber squads like Tampa Bay. What gives?
JaMarcus Russell has been really inconsistent this season. Some may blame that on his work ethic, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and suggest that his receivers suck, while his offensive line couldn't block a couple of kids running toward an ice cream truck.
I argued Taylor Mays earlier, and he's still an option because of his 40 time and Al Davis' penchant for drafting defensive backs. Dating back to the 1998, he has gone that route six times with his first selection. Also, remember that Michael Huff has been benched this year.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
David Garrard's interception total has soared from three to 13 in just one year. But don't blame him. He was knocked down more than any other quarterback this season. And according to the sacks totals allowed by NFL left tackles, Khalif Barnes was one of the league's worst, surrendering 7.5 sacks.
Jacksonville must take care of its franchise quarterback. The team desperately needs to upgrade Garrard's blind side.
9. Green Bay Packers: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Green Bay has major problems in its secondary. Charles Woodson had to move to safety this season, and it appears as though he's staying there. Woodson turns 33 soon, so his days at corner are pretty much numbered. Meanwhile, Al Harris told the media that he probably won't be back next year. Tramon Williams played well, but the Packers don't really have anything else at corner, unless you want to count Patrick Lee, who couldn't even get on to the field in 2008.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State
If you look up the word "bust" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Manny Lawson, right next to Robert Gallery and Ryan Leaf. While Parys Haralson evolved into a dependable pass-rusher, Lawson has compiled six career sacks in 32 games. Terrible.
It's time for the 49ers to move on. Everette Brown would be a nice solution; he fits the scheme and he finished the year with 21.5 TFL and 13.5 sacks.
Pick change; previously Taylor Mays, S
11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
After such a hot start, who would have thought that the Bills would once again end up with the No. 11 pick? It's not a good time to be a Buffalo fan right now.
One of the team's huge weaknesses this year was its lacking pass rush. Buffalo finished with 24 sacks on the year, and no player had more than four. I know Aaron Schobel missed most of the year, but they had similar problems even when he was in the lineup.
Though he struggled in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, Brian Orakpo had a brilliant senior campaign, finishing with 15.5 TFL and 10.5 sacks in 11 games.
Pick change; previously Everette Brown, DE
12. Denver Broncos: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Mike Shanahan was fired, and Wade Phillips wasn't? What's going on here?
Pick a position, any position. Denver needs help everywhere, and I mean everywhere on defense. Their disgraceful performance against the Chargers prompted me to write the following in my Week 17 NFL Review page:
It's official. Denver has the worst defense I've ever seen. Worse than the Lions. Worse than the Rams. Worse than the Chiefs. They stink. Everyone on that defense needs to retire immediately to keep from embarrassing their family members even further. I'm utterly shocked Mike Shanahan doesn't onside kick it every single time. Shanahan might as well give the opposing offense a shorter field. They're going to score anyway. Why not have them take less time off the clock?
The Broncos have to go Best Player Available, and that would be Taylor Mays.
Pick change; previously James Laurinaitis, ILB
13. Washington Redskins: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
The Redskins have major problems at right tackle. Jon Jansen, who turns 33 in January, is playing on his last legs. Eben Britton would fit in well on the right side, and could potentially slide over to the blind side once Samuels' time is up.
14. New Orleans Saints: James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
It's going to be tough for the Saints to retain Jonathan Vilma. Should they extend Vilma or re-sign him prior to the opening day of free agency, they'll be forced to forfeit this selection. They can always re-sign him in March and shift him over to weakside linebacker, however.
Regardless, New Orleans really needs an upgrade at middle linebacker. The way I see it, this selection is either James Laurinaitis or Brandon Spikes unless Taylor Mays drops.
Pick change; previously Rey Maualuga, ILB
15. Houston Texans: William Moore, S, Missouri
Defensive end is definitely an option here, but Houston's secondary has been an abomination for years and has always missed a ball-hawking leader. William Moore can be that guy. Michael Johnson is also a major option, as is Vontae Davis if Dunta Robinson is let go.