Thread: ESPN: 5 Overrated Players (2 Broncos)

Jay Cutler, QB Broncos

Cutler's 16 touchdown passes rank third in the league, and his 2,169 passing yards are fourth-best. He also is a favorite among fantasy players, as his 128 points currently rank him sixth in overall scoring in ESPN leagues.

As impressive as those cumulative figures are, Cutler's performance level has declined dramatically as the season has progressed. Cutler had a passer rating of 93 or higher in his first three games but has topped that mark only once since then. That drop-off has lowered his passer-rating ranking to 16th.

Another reason Cutler makes this list is that he hasn't improved in the one problem area that plagued him during his first two years: bad-decision percentage. It is quite difficult for any team to be successful when its quarterback has a bad-decision rate of 4.0 or higher, and Cutler was at or over the 5.0 mark in his rookie and sophomore professional seasons.

He hasn't shown any progress on this front in 2008, as his 5.3 mark in this metric indicates. Unless and until Cutler can push his mistakes total down to an acceptable level, he'll never be the great quarterback he's capable of becoming.

John Abraham, DE, Falcons

It is hard to knock any defensive lineman who puts up 10 sacks in eight games, but let's take a closer look at Abraham's sacks.

In Week 1, he posted a one-on-one sack against Detroit right tackle George Foster. Only six tackles gave up more sacks than Foster in 2007, and Foster started only nine games that year. He's obviously a below-average pass-blocker, so beating him isn't an indicator of great pass-rush skill.

That is the case with all four of Abraham's one-on-one sacks. He beat the Chiefs' Damion McIntosh for a sack in Week 3 and destroyed Oakland's Kwame Harris for two sacks in Week 9. McIntosh has bounced around the league throughout his career, and Harris is so bad that he probably shouldn't even be employed in the NFL.

If that wasn't enough to bring Abraham's sacks explosion into perspective, consider that four of his sacks are coverage sacks and one is a run sack. All of this doesn't mean that Abraham is having a bad season, but multiple pass-rushers are having better seasons than he is, and they deserve the Honolulu trip more than Abraham does.

Jerod Mayo, LB, Patriots

Mayo is a perfect example of a player whose tackles total raises his perceived performance level well above what it truly is. Mayo won the rookie defensive player of the month award in October largely because of his 24 tackles in that period.

Mayo's point-of-attack (POA) run metrics for the season show that he actually is struggling quite badly in one of the primary functions for his position. I have broken down six of the Patriots' eight games, and in that sample, Mayo has been at the run POA 34 times. He has defeated only six of those blocks, which equates to a POA win percentage of 17.7. If historical trends are a good indicator, that would place him in the bottom quarter of the league at season's end. His run-stuffing prowess is probably even worse than that if the 7.2 yards per attempt on the POA runs is added to the analysis.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos
I didn't want to put two players from one team on this list, but Marshall is ranked fourth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards. That type of showing all but assures he will receive much Pro Bowl consideration, so it makes him worth a closer look.

The extra examination time doesn't do him much good. Marshall is averaging only 7.1 YPA, which not only is below Pro Bowl-caliber, it also could place him in the lower half of the league in that metric at season's end. Marshall also is averaging only 7.0 YPA when facing someone in coverage, be it a cornerback, safety or linebacker. That doesn't compare favorably with his 7.4 YPA against cornerbacks in 2007 and is a sign that Marshall has regressed some in 2008.

Ronde Barber, CB, Buccaneers

It was a bit difficult to name any cornerback as overrated because the main criterion most people use to decide who to pick for the Pro Bowl at this position is interceptions, and no one has a significant lead there. But Barber is a big-name cornerback on a team that's making a resurgence, and he has a high-profile twin brother who can pitch him to a national television audience every week. That means he has a lot of advantages in the hype tiebreakers.

Where he doesn't have an advantage is in the metrics. I have graded seven of the Buccaneers' eight games, and Barber has an 11.2 YPA and a 24.1 percent success rate. Both of those are the types of statistics that would get a young player benched or cut, but Barber has the career clout that allows him to weather this type of subpar-performance storm. Just because he keeps his job, however, doesn't mean he is worthy of the postseason honor roll.

KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core coverage metrics for all skill-position players and cornerbacks are available in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine. His new book "Blindsided: Why The Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts," is available in bookstores and on Amazon.com. For more information, check out KC's Web site, www.thefootballscientist.com.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/column..._kc&id=3683651

Interesting....

Is there really anything that surprising or interesting about that?

Cutler is throwing too many interceptions, forcing the ball and making bad decisions, and Marshall is dropping passes left and right.

that was one of the dumbest articles ever.

Originally Posted by MissouriBronc

Is there really anything that surprising or interesting about that?

Cutler is throwing too many interceptions, forcing the ball and making bad decisions, and Marshall is dropping passes left and right.

So you also believe that Cutler and Marshall are overrated? 2 of the top 5 MOST overrated players in the league? Really? I don't think so. Marshall is probably the BEST receiver in the league even after he had 2 bad games. If he's not #1, he's top 5 no doubt. Cutler after a fast start had a few bad games, but last night WILLED our team to victory. He put this team on his back (like people last week were saying that he couldn't do) and won the game for us. He's 2nd in the league in TD's, and 1st in yards. He is tied for 2nd in picks, but he's also thrown the most passes by about 40 attempts. Neither Cutler or Marshall are overrated. That article is crap. I read it before it was posted here, and was so disgusted that I didn't even bother posting it because it's nothing but crap.

Originally Posted by Italianmobstr7

So you also believe that Cutler and Marshall are overrated? 2 of the top 5 MOST overrated players in the league? Really? I don't think so. Marshall is probably the BEST receiver in the league even after he had 2 bad games. If he's not #1, he's top 5 no doubt. Cutler after a fast start had a few bad games, but last night WILLED our team to victory. He put this team on his back (like people last week were saying that he couldn't do) and won the game for us. He's 2nd in the league in TD's, and 1st in yards. He is tied for 2nd in picks, but he's also thrown the most passes by about 40 attempts. Neither Cutler or Marshall are overrated. That article is crap. I read it before it was posted here, and was so disgusted that I didn't even bother posting it because it's nothing but crap.

If Cutler continues to make dumb mistakes and Marshall continues to drop passes and run his mouth, yeah, I do believe they are overrated. You may think its crap, because you've got orange and blue glasses on. Like it or not, but that's the view nationally of these players. I'm sorry you get so pissed off when you hear that.

The last six games, Cutler has played very poorly, even though in a few of those games he has had a lot of yards. He could very easily have 6 or 8 more picks over that stretch, which goes to that bad decision making number they tout.

He and the coaches, talked about how much time they spent in the offseason working on this very issue -- working with him on taking the short pass, moving the chains. He looked great the first three games, and it is almost as if the success made him believe he could complete any pass, anywhere on the field. The last six games, he has both made many bad decisions, but also been highly inaccurate.

Is he one of the top five overrated players? I don't think so, but he has earned a great deal of the criticism he has received the last 6 weeks.

Jay Cutler 211 Completions 1st in the league, 342 attempts 1st in the league, 61.7 % completion percentage, 2,616 yards 1st in the league, 18 TD's 2nd in the league. He's thrown 11 interceptions which is 2nd worst in the league.

Brandon Marshall 57 Rec 3rd in the league, 714 yds 5th in the league, 4 TD's 4th in the league. All of this while being held to 2 catches against Miami (1 drop) and not even playing in the first game of the season. So him being considered the best or a top 5 WR isn't out of the question and is not overrating him. TO drops passes all the damn time. Braylon Edwards leads the league in dropped passes since he joined the league, do you think he's overrated too? What does running his mouth have to do with anything? Running his mouth doesn't make him a worse receiver. Chad Johnson and TO talk all the time, and they're 2 of the best. We're talking about on field play, not their off the field actions or words.

You can sit there and say I'm wearing orange tinted glasses, but the stats are facts. Marshall probably has 5 or 6 drops all year. Who gives a rats ass. Every WR drops passes and every qb makes mistakes. I don't think that anyone has rated Cutler high enough to be overrated. Marshall is talked about LIKE HE SHOULD BE for being one of the best at his position. Cutler has made some stupid throws, and some bad decisions, but he's also made some great throws, and great decisions. Marshall may drop some passes. But he makes up for them with all of the great plays that he makes. Can you honestly name 5 qb's better than Cutler playing this year, and 5 wr's better than Marshall? I can think of some guys that are close, but I couldn't see 5 wr's being better than either Cutler or Marshall, and the stats prove it.

Originally Posted by Italianmobstr7

Jay Cutler 211 Completions 1st in the league, 342 attempts 1st in the league, 61.7 % completion percentage, 2,616 yards 1st in the league, 18 TD's 2nd in the league. He's thrown 11 interceptions which is 2nd worst in the league.

Brandon Marshall 57 Rec 3rd in the league, 714 yds 5th in the league, 4 TD's 4th in the league. All of this while being held to 2 catches against Miami (1 drop) and not even playing in the first game of the season. So him being considered the best or a top 5 WR isn't out of the question and is not overrating him. TO drops passes all the damn time. Braylon Edwards leads the league in dropped passes since he joined the league, do you think he's overrated too? What does running his mouth have to do with anything? Running his mouth doesn't make him a worse receiver. Chad Johnson and TO talk all the time, and they're 2 of the best. We're talking about on field play, not their off the field actions or words.

You can sit there and say I'm wearing orange tinted glasses, but the stats are facts. Marshall probably has 5 or 6 drops all year. Who gives a rats ass. Every WR drops passes and every qb makes mistakes. I don't think that anyone has rated Cutler high enough to be overrated. Marshall is talked about LIKE HE SHOULD BE for being one of the best at his position. Cutler has made some stupid throws, and some bad decisions, but he's also made some great throws, and great decisions. Marshall may drop some passes. But he makes up for them with all of the great plays that he makes. Can you honestly name 5 qb's better than Cutler playing this year, and 5 wr's better than Marshall? I can think of some guys that are close, but I couldn't see 5 wr's being better than either Cutler or Marshall, and the stats prove it.

And we're 5-4...thus the over-rated. I don't think its that hard to figure out why they are on that list. That is the national perception. Again, sorry it pisses you off so much...

They're regressing in the stupid numbers, like YPA, and Passer rating. As long as they are winning, that's what matters.


Definitely not Overrated.

Originally Posted by Italianmobstr7

So you also believe that Cutler and Marshall are overrated? 2 of the top 5 MOST overrated players in the league? Really? I don't think so. Marshall is probably the BEST receiver in the league even after he had 2 bad games. If he's not #1, he's top 5 no doubt. Cutler after a fast start had a few bad games, but last night WILLED our team to victory. He put this team on his back (like people last week were saying that he couldn't do) and won the game for us. He's 2nd in the league in TD's, and 1st in yards. He is tied for 2nd in picks, but he's also thrown the most passes by about 40 attempts. Neither Cutler or Marshall are overrated. That article is crap. I read it before it was posted here, and was so disgusted that I didn't even bother posting it because it's nothing but crap.

Brandon Marshall IS NOT the best receiver in the league, and maybe not even top 10. Above him, off the top of my head, I'd put Larry Fitzgerald at #1, then in no particular order, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith. Would I say he or Cutler are over rated? No. Cutler has all of the tools to be an NFL great, as does Marshall. Marshall NEEDS to quit dropping passes though. He'd have 10-12 more receptions this year had it not been for his drops. He needs to talk to Javon Walker about how to make his hands strong enough to catch anything.

Originally Posted by Italianmobstr7

Can you honestly name 5 qb's better than Cutler playing this year, and 5 wr's better than Marshall? I can think of some guys that are close, but I couldn't see 5 wr's being better than either Cutler or Marshall, and the stats prove it.

I can't name five with better stats, but I sure as shit can name a few that are playing better. Stats don't mean the players are playing well. Cutler and Marshall are both doing things throughout the course of a game that a seasoned vet would not do. Cutler's bad decision making has put us in binds over the past six games. That "stat" is what earned him this spot on the over rated list. Stats are not indicators of how well a team or a player is playing. They are deceiving.

You have to be rated really highly to be considered top-5 over-rated, I guess. The guy seems to be saying that he expects Cutler and Marshall to fade back to their "true" levels. He doesn't seem to understand that to us who watch them every game this appears to be them "scuffling" not "playing above their ability level" or "having good but bogus stats."

Bill James explained the baseball situation because he had years upon years of stats related to those guys to base his opinion on. We have 2 years-ish with Cutler and Marshall. Their ability level baseline is not set, and since football is far more of a game of scheme and cooperation than is baseball, where on offense it's one batter against one pitcher every time, it's harder to predict what scheme change will do to stats. Nor what player-dynamics can do to a tandem.

When he took Cutler AND Marshall he took two players whose fates are tied to one another. If Marshall defeats coverage more often and holds on to the ball, Cutler should throw fewer picks and both will look better. If Cutler makes better decisions instead of doing the throwing-it-to-Marshall show for every 5 yard pass, Marshall's YPC should improve.

If Royal takes more coverage off of Marshall, both Cutler and Marshall should get better. If Scheffler gets healthy and Stokley can stay on the field and we can find some sort of running game and Hillis can be a weapon out of the backfield...

You see where I'm going. Stats in baseball are "yours." Stats in football are team stats, unless you're a kicker, and even then there are team aspects.

Cutler and Marshall are dragging each other down right now. Shouldn't it be terrifying to the opposition that THIS is them being "over-rated" and "not as good as their stats would indicate"?

If one clicks, both should click, and if both click, lookout world.

And lookout KC Joyner, Top Five over-rated article writer.

~G

Originally Posted by SeeingRed

I can't name five with better stats, but I sure as shit can name a few that are playing better. Stats don't mean the players are playing well. Cutler and Marshall are both doing things throughout the course of a game that a seasoned vet would not do. Cutler's bad decision making has put us in binds over the past six games. That "stat" is what earned him this spot on the over rated list. Stats are not indicators of how well a team or a player is playing. They are deceiving.

Brandon Marshall has had 2 bad games. If you count yesterday as a bad game. I guess nowadays 6 catches for 89 yards and a TD is a bad game....
Even if stats don't tell the story, you're right. Marshall has had 2 bad games in a row, and Cutler has had some bad games (yesterday was not one of them). I don't care if he ALMOST threw 5 or 6 picks. He only threw 1 and it was Marshall's fault. Hence the bad game. So I'll chalk up 2 bad games for Marshall and 3 of 4 for Marshall. Their still not 2 of the top 5 overrated players in the game. IMO, They're not overrated either. But It's not going to change anyone's mind. We'll have to agree to disagree. I believe that Marshall is easily a top 5 receiver in the league. His stats prove it, as does his play on the field. I'd say the top 5 in the league, in no particular order are:

Marshall
Fitzgerald
Moss
Andre Johnson
Terrell Owens

You can also make an argument for Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne. But I still wouldn't take ANY of those players over Marshall. With Cutler, he will need to cut down on the mistakes, but he's still a top qb in the league. He did last night what every one was saying that he couldn't. And that's take the team on his back, and bring them to victory. Cutler can do it, and he proved it again last night.

I'd take Larry Fitzgerald over Marshall with out even thinking about it. Fitz is a man among boys on the football field.

Originally Posted by SeeingRed

I'd take Larry Fitzgerald over Marshall with out even thinking about it. Fitz is a man among boys on the football field.

So is Marshall... How many 18 catch games has Larry Fitzgerald had?