Thread: Carson Palmer and the Broncos Good News

Originally Posted by TXBRONC

When I heard that Palmer wanted to be traded the thing was if the Bengals woudn't trade Johnson then Palmer doesn't stand a chance.
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DId you see what Ocho-sink said???
"I'm still under the buss my coach threw me under for asking for a trade..."LMAO

WTF is the point of the original post?

If Carson Palmer goes on the market that can only mean we can kiss any thought of getting a 2nd for Orton goodbye.

Originally Posted by vandammage13

If Carson Palmer goes on the market that can only mean we can kiss any thought of getting a 2nd for Orton goodbye.

Why is that?

Originally Posted by Agent of Orange

Why is that?

The more QB's that are on the market, the less value there is for them. It's really quite simple (supply vs. demand).

What I see is several veteran QB's possibly being available this offseason (assuming the CBA gets resolved before the start of preseason). Looks like V.Young, D.McNabb, K.Kolb, K.Orton, as well as C.Palmer might all be available via trade of free agency. That's a pretty healthy crop of QB's to choose from if you are a team in need of one.

Where does Orton rank on this list? Bottom two if you ask me, so getting a 2nd rounder for Orton when someone else may be available for less may make it tough on the Broncos to get their asking price. The only guy I would take Orton over would be V.Young, but that's mostly based on him being a head case rather than his ability to play QB. You don't want to hand the keys of your franchise to someone like that.

Originally Posted by vandammage13

The more QB's that are on the market, the less value there is for them. It's really quite simple (supply vs. demand).

What I see is several veteran QB's possibly being available this offseason (assuming the CBA gets resolved before the start of preseason). Looks like V.Young, D.McNabb, K.Kolb, K.Orton, as well as C.Palmer might all be available via trade of free agency. That's a pretty healthy crop of QB's to choose from if you are a team in need of one.

Where does Orton rank on this list? Bottom two if you ask me, so getting a 2nd rounder for Orton when someone else may be available for less may make it tough on the Broncos to get their asking price.

It's not really that simple. Lets say there are 6 teams that need a QB and Palmer is traded to one of them. There are then 5 of those six teams that still need a QB but in addition to that, there's Cincy added into the mix. So, you still have 6 teams that need a QB. Palmer changing teams is zero sum on the demand side.

Also, unless Cincinnati is willing to trade Palmer for a 2nd or lower, it doesnt really affect Orton's value. Some of those 6 teams may not want to spend a first on Palmer when you can get Orton for less. And considering Palmer's talent and perceived importance, it's hard to imagine Cincy trading him for less than a 1st.

Originally Posted by Agent of Orange

It's not really that simple. Lets say there are 6 teams that need a QB and Palmer is traded to one of them. There are then 5 of those six teams that still need a QB but in addition to that, there's Cincy added into the mix. So, you still have 6 teams that need a QB. Palmer changing teams is zero sum on the demand side.

Also, unless Cincinnati is willing to trade Palmer for a 2nd or lower, it doesnt really affect Orton's value. Some of those 6 teams may not want to spend a first on Palmer when you can get Orton for less. And considering Palmer's talent and perceived importance, it's hard to imagine Cincy trading him for less than a 1st.

What 6 teams do you see that might be in the market for a veteran QB to be their starter next year? I see SF, Arizona, and maybe Minnesota. Other than that, I think anyone else not set at QB will stick with what they have temporarily and cultivate a draft prospect.

Team's QB situation for 2011:

Dallas (Romo) - Set
Giants (Eli) - Set
Philly (Vick) - Set
Washington (Grossman) - Will probably stick with him and draft someone

Arizona (Hall/Skelton) - Probably will get a veteran
49ers (Smith/Smith/Carr) - Probably will get a veteran
Seahawks (Hasselbeck/Whitehurst) - Something tells me they might give Whitehurst a shot
Rams (Bradford) - Set

Bears (Cutler) - Set
Lions (Stafford) - Will probably get another year or two to prove he can stay healthy
Packers (Rodgers) - Set
Vikings (Jackson/Webb) - Will probably get a veteran and draft someone

Falcons (Ryan) - Set
Panthers (Clausen) - Probably in the market for a veteran now that Luck is staying put
Saints (Brees) - Set
Bucs (Freeman) - Set

Bills (Fitzpatrick) - Will stick with him and draft someone
Dolphins (Henne) - Will probably stick with him for 1 more year to prove himself
Jets (Sanchez) - Set
Patriots (Brady) - Set

Broncos (Tebow) - Will get a chance to prove himself for probably the next 2 years
Chiefs (Cassel) - Set
Chargers (Rivers) - Set
Raiders (Campbell) - Old man Al Davis says he's the QB

Bengals (Palmer?) - Might be in the market for a veteran and draft a QB should Palmer be dealt
Browns (McCoy) - Probably will get a year or 2 to prove his worth
Ravens (Flacco) - Set
Steelers (Roethlisberger) - Set

Texans (Schaub) - Set
Colts (P.Manning) - Set
Jags (Garrard) - Set for now and will probably draft someone
Titans (Collins) - Will probably stick with him in 2011 and draft someone

So I really only see a maximum of 4 teams in the market for a veteran QB to take over as their starter in 2011. Wherever Orton goes (if he is indeed dealt) I highly doubt whatever team picks him up will be looking at him as anything more than a stop-gap veteran, as they will probably also be drafting someone as well and have Orton steer the ship until their young QB is ready, similar to what happened here. If that's the case, I doubt they will give up a 2nd rounder for him when they could get someone like McNabb for much less. (Unfortunately for that team, Orton might steer that ship straight into an iceberg. But I do believe that in the right situation and circumstances, Orton can keep the ship afloat, just don't expect him to take you anywhere past 8-8)

Originally Posted by vandammage13

What 6 teams do you see that might be in the market for a veteran QB to be their starter next year? I see SF, Arizona, and maybe Minnesota. Other than that, I think anyone else not set at QB will stick with what they have temporarily and cultivate a draft prospect.

6 was an arbitrary number. I was just using six to show how there are still 6 teams that need QBs after Cincy trades Palmer.

But since you asked, here are the teams that I see that could conceivably be in the market for a QB: Miami, Minnesota, Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland, Detroit (Stafford can't stay healthy), Washington, Oakland, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tennesee.

Originally Posted by Agent of Orange

6 was an arbitrary number. I was just using six to show how there are still 6 teams that need QBs after Cincy trades Palmer.

But since you asked, here are the teams that I see that could conceivably be in the market for a QB: Miami, Minnesota, Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland, Detroit (Stafford can't stay healthy), Washington, Oakland, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tennesee.

While I agree that all of the teams you mentioned could be in the market for a veteran QB, I only see 4 teams (Minn, Ari, SF, and Carolina) that are in the market for a STARTER that might warrant a 2nd round pick.

Originally Posted by vandammage13

While I agree that all of the teams you mentioned could be in the market for a veteran QB, I only see 4 teams (Minn, Ari, SF, and Carolina) that are in the market for a STARTER that might warrant a 2nd round pick.

I think you can add Tennessee and Carolina to that. Jeff Fisher has spoken about how he thinks rookies need to be taught how to be pro, and he seems exasperrated by it. I think Fisher would rather go with a known commodity who already knows the ropes.

Carolina is in no man's land unless they take a QB at 1, which seems unlikely. Rather than gamble on someone in the draft with a 2nd, it makes sense that they would want to get things going sooner than waiting on a young QB to emerge. They just hired a new coach and its not likely that he will want to be set up for failure by using the same group they had last year.

Originally Posted by Agent of Orange

I think you can add Tennessee and Carolina to that. Jeff Fisher has spoken about how he thinks rookies need to be taught how to be pro, and he seems exasperrated by it. I think Fisher would rather go with a known commodity who already knows the ropes.

Carolina is in no man's land unless they take a QB at 1, which seems unlikely. Rather than gamble on someone in the draft with a 2nd, it makes sense that they would want to get things going sooner than waiting on a young QB to emerge. They just hired a new coach and its not likely that he will want to be set up for failure by using the same group they had last year.

I mentioned Carolina as one of the teams in the market for a veteran QB. As for Tennessee, I really think they will stick with Kerry Collins temporarily and draft someone like Ryan Mallett or Blaine Gabbert.

Originally Posted by dogfish

we'll see, but palmer's contract looks flat-out untradable to me. . .

and mike brown is very stubborn, ask king if you don't believe me-- idiot turned down a 1st round pick plus another high pick for freakin' chad johnson a couple years ago. . .

Actually, that wasn't an idiot move. As far as ticket sales and media attention goes, Chad Ochocinco is one of the main reasons why the Bengals draw national attention and can generate revenue. The guy has star power, even if that does not necessarily translate into on the field production. Trading Chad Ochocino would be suicide for the franchise's short term revenue. No first round pick in those slots could have GUARANTEED a personality/talent like Ochocinco that can sell merchandise/tickets. The current state of the Jacksonville Jaguars explains why the Bengals would keep Ochocinco despite not necessarily translating into on the field performance. Despite competing for a playoff spot every year, the franchise struggles to sell out prime time games. That could be Cincinnati if not for Chad. Star power really is a necessity for smaller market teams if they want to sell out the house, barring a 12-14 win season(Which no team really does year in and year out).

Originally Posted by Agent of Orange

It's not really that simple. Lets say there are 6 teams that need a QB and Palmer is traded to one of them. There are then 5 of those six teams that still need a QB but in addition to that, there's Cincy added into the mix. So, you still have 6 teams that need a QB. Palmer changing teams is zero sum on the demand side.

Also, unless Cincinnati is willing to trade Palmer for a 2nd or lower, it doesnt really affect Orton's value. Some of those 6 teams may not want to spend a first on Palmer when you can get Orton for less. And considering Palmer's talent and perceived importance, it's hard to imagine Cincy trading him for less than a 1st.

The flaw in your logic is that there are only a few teams that are playoff-ready and one veteran QB away (greater need) .... you have Miami, Minnesota and Tennessee... teams in a total rebuild are more likely to look at the draft as an option as well because they don't expect to win next year which means those teams have the option of Vet or rookie QB (of which there are plenty in this year's draft) plus have too many holes to willingly give up a 2nd rd pick. A team like Tennessee, Miami and Minnesota have relatively few holes have a lower round 2nd rd draft pick and not as great a need to use it versus landing an established QB.

Thus if Palmer goes Minnesota you have one less team needing a vet QB to start, if Mcnabb goes somewhere you're down one more team... see how that works? In addition, the market for Orton is hurt by the idiotic articles being put out saying he was mocking Tebow... you think that a team is going to then bring him in to groom a young QB? Those articles did NOTHING to help the Broncos... only gave something for Broncos fans to latch onto and hate on Orton more while greatly reducing his value.

2nd rd pick is not likely coming... and wasn't going to be for this year anyway so ALL of this is probably moot as he is going to be dealt for a 2012 conditional pick because of the CBA issues.

Originally Posted by JDL

The flaw in your logic is that there are only a few teams that are playoff-ready and one veteran QB away (greater need) .... you have Miami, Minnesota and Tennessee... teams in a total rebuild are more likely to look at the draft as an option as well because they don't expect to win next year which means those teams have the option of Vet or rookie QB (of which there are plenty in this year's draft) plus have too many holes to willingly give up a 2nd rd pick. A team like Tennessee, Miami and Minnesota have relatively few holes have a lower round 2nd rd draft pick and not as great a need to use it versus landing an established QB.

Thus if Palmer goes Minnesota you have one less team needing a vet QB to start, if Mcnabb goes somewhere you're down one more team... see how that works? In addition, the market for Orton is hurt by the idiotic articles being put out saying he was mocking Tebow... you think that a team is going to then bring him in to groom a young QB? Those articles did NOTHING to help the Broncos... only gave something for Broncos fans to latch onto and hate on Orton more while greatly reducing his value.

2nd rd pick is not likely coming... and wasn't going to be for this year anyway so ALL of this is probably moot as he is going to be dealt for a 2012 conditional pick because of the CBA issues.

The flaw in your response is that it has to be with a team thats only a QB away. There are also some teams where a coach's or GM's position is tenuous and they don't have time to groom a QB. And then there might also be teams who don't want to wait on a rookie QB because they've lost enough and want to appease the fan base by bringing in a vet.

I think there are a few teams where Orton is more of an ideal fit but there are also other things to consider.

The value of Orton is driven by a number a couple of things: 1) A QB is an important position; 2) Orton is a proven commodity and less risky. He's one of the best options in that he's been productive and has learned two different systems; 3) The number of teams that need a QB.