Why Is Bowlen So Loyal To Shanahan?
Since John Elway’s retirement, the Broncos have won exactly 1 playoff game in 9 seasons. In the 2007 season, they won less than half of the games they played. They have made endless personnel mistakes, and paid big money contracts to players who seemed to contribute more to the team’s failures than successes. Dale Carter, Darrel Gardner, Simeon Rice, Javon Walker, Jimmy Kennedy, and others have made many wonder if Mike Shanahan and his staff have a clue about how to evaluate NFL veteran talent. 24 of the 34 players drafted by Denver between 2001-2004 no longer play in the NFL. Only 2 of the 10 that are left in the NFL are still with the team, making many wonder if Mike Shanahan and his staff have a clue about how to evaluate college talent. Why in the world would Pat Bowlen keep paying Mike Shanahan millions of dollars to run this organization? Anyone? Anyone? I’m going to attempt to answer this question with some facts, statistics, and a question.
Free agents and draft picks in the NFL are gambles. Free agents and rookies are given signing bonuses and a contract. Signing bonuses are guaranteed, and a portion of the contracts are usually also guaranteed. When players get cut and have remaining guaranteed money owed to them, that money counts against the team’s cap. We refer to this money as ‘dead cap space’. Over the last 4 years, NFL teams have averaged just under 10 million dollars in dead cap space. Mike Shanahan is a gambler. For that reason alone, the Broncos are going to be among the leaders in dead cap space. He's had his successes and failures. Football fans normally tend to focus on the failures when a team is struggling. Around the Denver area recently, we hear a lot of talk about free agent pickups like Dale Carter, Darryl Gardner, Simeon Rice, Travis Henry, Michael Dean Perry, and others. Some of the signings you won’t hear about as much these days are players like Ed Mccaffery, Mark Schlereth, Brian Habib, John Lynch, Howard Griffith, Bill Romanowski, Alfred Williams, Neil Smith, and others. Shanahan normally comes out on the winning end of trades. Gerard Warren to the Raiders for just a 5th round pick was arguably a poor trade, but moving Clinton Portis to Washington for Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick was a stroke of brilliance. Portis has struggled continually with injuries while Bailey has become a perennial pro bowler and future hall of famer. Netting a 3rd and 4th round pick for Ashley Lelie was another masterpiece. If we choose to focus on the negative personnel moves made by Shanahan and his staff over the years, we certainly have room to complain. For the glass half full type of fans, there’s plenty to be happy about.
Personnel moves aside, let’s take a look at the big picture. When I asked myself what I really want out of my football team as a fan, I came up with 2 things…… 1) Having a competitive team, and 2) Winning championships. Let’s take a look at how Shanahan has done in these two areas.
Competitiveness:
I’ve compiled a chart of the 32 teams’ records since Shanahan was hired in Denver.
As you can see above, the Broncos have the 3rd best record in the NFL during Shanahan’s tenure. Their average record per season is 10-6.Code:1 New England Patriots 135-73 0.649 2 Green Bay Packers 134-74 0.644 3 Denver Broncos 130-78 0.625 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 127-80-1 0.611 5 Indianapolis Colts 126-82 0.606 6 Philadelphia Eagles 117-90-1 0.563 7 Kansas City Chiefs 115-93 0.553 8 Tennessee Titans 114-94 0.548 9 Jacksonville Jaguars 113-95 0.543 9 Minnesota Vikings 113-95 0.543 9 Seattle Seahawks 113-95 0.543 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109-99 0.524 13 Dallas Cowboys 108-100 0.519 14 Miami Dolphins 106-102 0.509 15 San Francisco 49'ers 105-103 0.505 16 New York Giants 104-103-1 0.499 17 St. Louis Cardinals 103-105 0.495 18 Cle/Baltimore Ravens 101-106-1 0.486 19 Buffalo Bills 100-108 0.481 20 San Diego Chargers 99-109 0.476 21 Washington Redskins 97-110-1 0.466 22 Carolina Panthers 97-111 0.466 23 Chicago Bears 95-113 0.457 23 New York Jets 95-113 0.457 25 Atlanta Falcons 94-114 0.452 26 New Orleans Saints 87-121 0.418 26 Oakland Raiders 87-121 0.418 28 Cincinnati Bengals 83-125 0.399 29 Detroit Lions 77-131 0.371 30 Arizona Cardinals 73-134-1 0.351 31 Cleveland Browns 50-94 0.347 32 Houston Texans 32-64 0.333
Let’s take a look at the second category: Winning Championships. Shanahan and the Broncos have won 2 during his time here in Denver. That ranks second, bested only by the New England Patriots (3). 8 other teams have won a single Super Bowl, 22 teams have not won any, and half of the teams in the NFL have had a losing record between 1995-2008. The numbers are what they are, and as promised I’ll leave you with a question to help answer my original question.
If the current 32 owners were given an opportunity to hire a coach/gm for the next 13 years, and were guaranteed to have an average record of 10-6 and win 2 Super Bowls during that span, how many do you think would say no?