Thread: Gridiron Guide's Week 1 NFL picks

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Gridiron Guide's Week 1 NFL picks
Jets may soar; Cowboys will ground Giants
ED McNAMARA
September 7, 2007

Marquee matchups


Bears at Chargers

Line: Chargers by 6. Over/Under: 42 1/2

One of the most flawed teams to make the Super Bowl in recent years faces one of the best ones that didn't get there. If not for the upset by the Pats, San Diego would have overpowered the Colts and Bears and won it all. The Chargers' attacking front seven should create some Rex Grossman moments. The pick: Chargers


Ravens at Bengals

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2 Over/Under: 40 1/2

A team with the Bengals' offense and the Ravens' defense might never lose, but the other two units have problems. At halftime, every Bengal who's been arrested in the past two years will sing a new tune entitled "Perp Walk." In this prime-time hatefest, take the better 'D'. The pick: Ravens


Cardinals at 49ers

Line: 49ers by 3 Over/Under: 45

If you play on Monday night in Week 1, does it automatically qualify as a marquee matchup? Upon further review, I'm not sure. Why watch: To see if you can stay awake until it ends at 1 a.m. Both teams are young and likely to improve in a weak division. The Niners should be pumped for a rare national appearance. The pick: 49ers


Around the league

Chiefs at Texans

Line: Texans by 3 Over/Under: 37 1/2

The Chiefs can't throw the ball, so despite Herm Edwards' vow to reduce Larry Johnson's workload, they'll keep handing off to him until his hips disintegrate. Matt Schaub should perk up Houston's offense. If he's sacked as often as David Carr was, at least Schaub doesn't have much mileage on him. The pick: Texans


Broncos at Bills

Line: Broncos by 3 Over/Under: 37

Bob the Bills fan cringed when RB Willis McGahee, CB Nate Clements and LB London Fletcher-Baker left town. Rarely does a 7-9 team lose that much talent in the offseason. Denver's Jay Cutler can throw spirals across lakes and is a quick study. The pick: Broncos


Steelers at Browns

Line: Steelers by 4 1/2 Over/Under: 36 1/2

After a post-championship letdown, the Steelers will be motivated to rebound for new coach Mike Tomlin. Playing their longtime rivals in the Dawg Pound should fire them up more. CB Leigh Bodden's arrest for driving an SUV in reverse the wrong way on a one-way street is a metaphor for the cursed Browns franchise.

The pick: Steelers


Titans at Jaguars

Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2 Over/Under: 38

Compared to Michael Vick, Pacman Jones doesn't look so bad, does he? He's an unlucky victim of circumstances. When I was 23, wherever I went at night people were always getting shot, too. The Jags are strong on 'D' and tough at home. The pick: Jaguars


Panthers at Rams

Line: Rams by 1 Over/Under: 42 1/2

Everything went wrong for the Panthers last season and they still almost made the playoffs. They have more upside than the Rams, who haven't been scary at home for years. The pick: Panthers


Eagles at Packers

Line: Eagles by 3 Over/Under: 42 1/2

I'm still not sure why he cut Jeremiah Trotter, but you can't argue with Andy Reid's long-term record. Before the game, Brett Favre will announce he will never retire, and after he throws three picks, the Cheeseheads will still adore him. The pick: Eagles


Falcons at Vikings

Line: Vikings by 3 Over/Under: 35 1/2

Nike should donate its leftover Michael Vick jerseys to doggy day-care centers to help toilet train puppies. The Falcons are going nowhere, but they'll be psyched for new coach Bobby Petrino to show they can win without Vick.

The pick: Falcons


Dolphins at Redskins

Line: Redskins by 3 Over/Under: 34 1/2

Watching his ugly cars go in circles is more fun for Joe Gibbs than leading his 'Skins. Check out joegibbsonline.com for his "Weekly Spiritual Game Plan." I hope it works better than the ones the Redskins have been using. If they can't beat weak Miami, the old coach's faith will be tested again. The pick: Redskins


Bucs at Seahawks

Line: Seahawks by 6 Over/Under: 41

Seattle is almost everybody's favorite survivor pick, and in Week 1, you know what that can mean. The Bucs lost big at Qwest Field last season in Week 17, and now they're forced to open in that snakepit. The pick: Seahawks

Lions at Raiders

Line: Raiders by 2 1/2 Over/Under: 39 1/2

Only the Lions could be underdogs to a team that went 2-14. Gary and Wayne the Lions fans take perverse pride in this latest shameful moment. Oakland's offense was so pathetic last season it was fun to watch. QB Josh McCown starts. Detroit's defense stinks, but that may not matter here. The pick: Lions


Jets may soar; 'Boys ground Giants

Patriots at Jets

Line: Patriots by 6 1/2 Over/Under: 41

After assessing their major offseason pickups (Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth), Masters of the Obvious awarded the Pats the Super Bowl trophy in May. Not so fast, alleged experts who sway with the wind. Playing four games without both S Rodney Harrison and DE Richard Seymour will be a handicap, and star CB Asante Samuel can't be in top form after his holdout. I think the Jets will be a better team than last year but will struggle to make the playoffs because of a much harder schedule. But they can stay close here and maybe even steal a win. The pick: Jets

Giants at Cowboys

Line: Cowboys by 5 1/2 Over/Under: 44

Last year the Giants were hyped as a Super Bowl threat, and look what happened. Jeff the Giants fan fears 4-12 or worse, so maybe they'll surprise him. Bad news for Jeremy Shockey: There's a 5-yard penalty now for spiking the ball except after a TD, which should cost Big Blue's pseudo star at least 150 yards. Nobody can style like Shockey after a 7-yard pass for a first down in the first quarter. After a four-month hypnosis immersion program, Tony Romo finally forgot his season-killing botched hold on the kick against Seattle. He'll burn a bad secondary. The pick: Cowboys

BEST BET

STEELERS

All picks against the spread

Quick hit

The Browns ranked 29th in the NFL against the run last season.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...eed=rss.sports

Lions at Raiders, 1:15 p.m. Sunday {KTVU} {KTXL}

Wouldn't this game be more interesting if Raiders' top pick, quarterback JaMarcus Russell, and the Lions' No. 1 pick, wide receiver Calvin Johnson, were more of a factor? As of this writing, Russell is unsigned; Johnson is a backup to Mike Furrey. Still, Raiders rookie coach Lane Kiffin makes his debut.LIONS


Cardinals at 49ers, 7:15 p.m. Monday ESPN

Two of the NFL's promising young quarterbacks, Matt Leinart and Alex Smith, clash in an early NFC West meeting. Both teams were overhauled in the offseason, with Arizona getting a new coaching staff and the 49ers fortifying their linebackers and secondary. Expect a high-scoring game and a rebound effort from Smith, who failed to impress during the preseason. 49ERS


Falcons at Vikings, 10 a.m. Sunday

Atlanta is moving on, and quarterback Joey Harrington - love him or not - is leading the way along with new coach Bobby Petrino. The Vikings will debut rookie running back Adrian Peterson and hope that green but talented quarterback Tavaris Jackson doesn't make them look to recently signed backup Kelly Holcomb for help. Harrington has seven career interceptions against the Vikings, dating back to his days as a Lions' starter. VIKINGS


Dolphins at Redskins, 10 a.m.

Rookie head coach Cam Cameron has been a welcome change for Dolphins players who bristled under Nick Saban's direction in '06. Cameron's rep as an offensive innovator should help Miami score more points this season as long as new quarterback Trent Green stays healthy. Redskins coach Joe Gibbs will establish the run with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, but the Dolphins have more variety on offense.DOLPHINS


Broncos at Bills, 10 a.m. {KPIX} {KOVR} {KION}

A very good Week 1 game featuring two AFC teams in similar rebuilding modes: Former first-round quarterbacks Jay Cutler and J.P. Losman are expected to do great things this season and the running games are under construction in Buffalo (Marshawn Lynch) and Denver (Travis Henry). The Broncos have the better, more experienced offensive line and that should make the difference.BRONCOS


Chiefs at Texans, 10 a.m.

This marks the first all-out performance by every-down Chiefs back Larry Johnson, who missed 25 days in the preseason due to a holdout. He's durable but he may not be at full speed. The bigger question is how well Chiefs journeyman quarterback Damon Huard responds to being named the full-time starter: Boom or bust? The Texans have quietly built a strong offense and will surprise people.TEXANS


Panthers at Rams, 10 a.m.

Playing in their noisy dome, with all the firepower they have on offense, the Rams have to be the favorite. But Carolina has a talented front seven that can effectively pressure Rams quarterback Marc Bulger from the base defense, without blitzing. If the Panthers resort to the blitz, Bulger can quickly choose between versatile running back Steven Jackson and wideouts Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt.RAMS


Patriots at N.Y. Jets, 10 a.m.

Key stat to consider: New England was 7-1 on the road in '06. Beyond that, they have the superior offense and defense, even without Pro Bowler Rodney Harrison (four-game suspension). Expect quarterback Tom Brady to showcase his huge cast of receiver options: Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss (not on the injury report, despite the hamstring drama). The Jets will unveil Thomas Jones as their featured back.PATRIOTS


Eagles at Packers, 10 a.m. {KTVU} {KTXL}

Another marquee quarterback matchup, only this one features two veterans who hope to quiet doubters. Donovan McNabb is coming off a knee injury that left many wondering if he's still the Eagles' unquestioned leader; Brett Favre, back for a 17th NFL season, openly contemplated retirement but also campaigned to get a top running back and wide receiver in his offense. The Packers signed neither.EAGLES


Steelers at Browns, 10 a.m.

This is a rivalry game for fans because the cities are only 116 miles apart. Pittsburgh's new coach, Mike Tomlin, is young and already has changed the Bill Cowher regime: The Steelers will pass more than they ever did under Cowher, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has to like that. The Browns will start Charlie Frye at quarterback and will try to run with Jamal Lewis.STEELERS


Titans at Jaguars, 10 a.m.

Quarterback Vince Young was the leader everyone expected as a rookie, leading Tennessee to a .500 record. But Young lost some big playmakers on offense, including running back Travis Henry. That may compel Young to scramble more, especially to escape the Jaguars' impressive pass rush. But that Jacksonville front also could contain Young in the pocket, where he's not as comfortable.TITANS


Bears at Chargers, 1:15 p.m.

This is the best contest of the week apart from the kickoff game between the Colts and Saints. The Bears, the defending NFC champions, are loaded on defense and will try to establish the run with Cedric Benson. But the Chargers, a Super Bowl favorite, excel at stopping the run with the Pro Bowl defense. Their star-studded offense should be versatile enough to sneak past what Chicago throws at them. CHARGERS


Buccaneers at Seahawks, 1:15 p.m.

This is a critical year for coach Jon Gruden and the Bucs are counting on 37-year-old quarterback Jeff Garcia to provide big plays and leadership. Garcia will get some help from the Bucs' rebuilt offensive line but the healthy Seahawks simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball, plus home field advantage.SEAHAWKS


N.Y. Giants at Cowboys, 5:15 p.m. {KNTV} {KCRA} {KSBW}

A classic NFC East rivalry game that gets the Sunday night spotlight, for good reason. New Cowboys coach Wade Phillips has his team in a good place mentally. The Giants, with Tom Coughlin constantly under fire, have had a tumultuous camp with Michael Strahan's holdout affecting the defense's development. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo should shine at home.COWBOYS


Ravens at Bengals, 4 p.m. Monday ESPN

The AFC North scrum begins with this outstanding matchup, and the Ravens are out to defend the division title. But Cincinnati's myriad off-field issues last season are no longer a factor. Quarterback Carson Palmer hopes to get running back Rudi Johnson unleashed first, then he'll look to receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh. But Baltimore's tough blitzing defense will attack the Bengals' line and harass Palmer all night.RAVENS

Let's see how good this expert, Ed McNamara is.

Hey look, I found his Indianapolis vs New Orleans prediction.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/footba...,4342768.story

Saints at Colts

Line: Colts by 6

Over/Under: 52 1/2

From his condo in the Himalayas came an impassioned text message from the Dalai Lama: "Gridiron Guide, at 19 you slept in the mud at Woodstock, a youth hoping to change the world. Aging cynic, you could still do that if only you will spread the word of light. Tell your followers to avoid NFL fantasy leagues, because the truth in life can never be found in numbers. Advise them to forsake the point spread and knockout pools, for they are all-consuming distractions."

Sorry, wise man, I can't do it. Millions of hopeless degenerates have waited seven months to get back into action, and there's no holding them back. They yearn for guidance, even if it comes from the dark side. So for the ninth year, I must offer it.

As usual, the Colts' offense will be unstoppable, but Peyton Manning will miss retired LT Tarik Glenn, who guarded his back forever. Indy lost five starters on defense, and the Saints can move the ball on anybody. Take the over and the points. The pick: Saints

Originally Posted by Cleveland Rocks

Let's see how good this expert, Ed McNamara is.

Hey look, I found his Indianapolis vs New Orleans prediction.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/footba...,4342768.story

Saints at Colts

Line: Colts by 6

Over/Under: 52 1/2

From his condo in the Himalayas came an impassioned text message from the Dalai Lama: "Gridiron Guide, at 19 you slept in the mud at Woodstock, a youth hoping to change the world. Aging cynic, you could still do that if only you will spread the word of light. Tell your followers to avoid NFL fantasy leagues, because the truth in life can never be found in numbers. Advise them to forsake the point spread and knockout pools, for they are all-consuming distractions."

Sorry, wise man, I can't do it. Millions of hopeless degenerates have waited seven months to get back into action, and there's no holding them back. They yearn for guidance, even if it comes from the dark side. So for the ninth year, I must offer it.

As usual, the Colts' offense will be unstoppable, but Peyton Manning will miss retired LT Tarik Glenn, who guarded his back forever. Indy lost five starters on defense, and the Saints can move the ball on anybody. Take the over and the points. The pick: Saints

I guess McNamara forgot one little item:

The game took place at Indy . . .

-----

Originally Posted by topscribe

I guess McNamara forgot one little item:

The game took place at Indy . . .

-----

I should wouldn't trust what this Ed fellow sees when he looks into his crystal ball. He is just pulling names out of a hat - I always try to ignore predictions - after all, all they are are guesses.

Originally Posted by Cleveland Rocks

I should wouldn't trust what this Ed fellow sees when he looks into his crystal ball. He is just pulling names out of a hat - I always try to ignore predictions - after all, all they are are guesses.

Well, there are such things as educated guesses.

But then, some of the "guessers" apparently aren't all that educated.

-----

Originally Posted by topscribe

Well, there are such things as educated guesses.

But then, some of the "guessers" apparently aren't all that educated.

-----

I don't know, topscribe, seems like a pretty educated guess to me.

Losing your left tackle who's been great at protecting your backside, then losing 5 starters on defense; then when you add up that the Colts defense during the regular season last year couldn't stop the run.

That's pretty educated, I'd say.

After watching the Colts' defense the regular season last year, then knowing they lost 5 starters on D, then also knowing that the Saints led the league in offense last year, which would you tend to believe ....

that the Colts' defense would not be able to stop the high powered Saints offense, or that the Colts' defense would put up a Baltimorian effort?

Hindsight is always king, but honestly with regards to the defense, with the info, I'd have chosen the former. Wouldn't you?