Question re: Roby's 2-point conversion interception.

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Originally Posted by BroncoWave

I have gone back and forth on this, but I think I've decided on just taking a knee as the play that gives us the highest win probability. At that point in the game, with a 2 point lead and less than a minute left, the only way NE is winning is if they get some sort of fluky play go their way. At the point he intercepted the pass, there are really only two avenues to NE winning. 1- Force Roby to fumble and run it in. 2- Recover an onside kick then score. By just taking the knee, he takes away one of those two possible outcomes. Returning it is a higher variance play, but in that situation, the Pats are wanting high variance. Yes there is the upside for us of going up 4, but the Pats will happily take that chance for the chance of them forcing a fumble and getting those 2 points. In the end, I think taking the knee just makes the most sense, as it takes away one of their avenues to potentially win.

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That makes a lot of sense. Intellectually, I know you're right: If you're outperforming them, don't give them a chance to screw all that up by getting lucky. It's just....

From midfield, Brady getting from midfield to FG range against a D GASSED from playing most of the second half AND missing BOTH safeties looked REALLY likely. I felt like our exhausted injury-depleted D HAD to stop the 2PAT, because if we went to OT the toss wouldn't matter: The offense that had just gone three-and-out three times straight wasn't going to score, and the D sucking its OWN thin air wasn't going to prevent a score. Better question:

Do we need a high variance SB, or to AVOID one? I still can't decide; their record and average victory margin were better, but against FAR worse teams, so who's really the best team? Also, bad line+injured Manning+NFLs best turnover differential=/=a good argument we should air it out and take our chances.

Yet I'm leaning more toward that because 1) I think they genuinely ARE better, so we need variance, 2) they won't be expecting Kubiaks run-heavy team to start an air war and 3) if we DO manage to jump out to a big early lead, their proud but inexperienced team may crumble under the pressure.

As for the 2PAT Int though, my brain says you're right even while my gut quivers at the memory: Buying a second lottery ticket is still awful odds, but TWICE as good as buying just one, and you only have to hit once. So ENDING one of two desperate chances is better than giving it back by trying to end BOTH.

So going after teh ball BEFORE it goes ten yards is some how not as safe as sitting and waiting for the ball to go 10 yrds where the NE patriots can freely go after it? How is that a safer play, I want the logic on that one.

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Originally Posted by Ravage!!!

So going after teh ball BEFORE it goes ten yards is some how not as safe as sitting and waiting for the ball to go 10 yrds where the NE patriots can freely go after it? How is that a safer play, I want the logic on that one.

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It looked like the ball was kicked so softly it wasn't going to go 10 yards. I'm ok with pouncing on it once it's gone 8 or 9 yards, but 5 is just too soon. Now thankfully it worked out, but if he muffs that ball, the 10 yard rule goes away and any of the 5 Pats right around him can pounce on the ball.

Any route you take comes with risk, but that play seemed more risky than it should have been.

Damn, sorry guys. I just saw this thread. Work has been keeping me busy. Here's the deal, Roby could have scored on the interception for 2 points (best case scenario). Here are the bad things that could have happened: If the Patriots had recovered the ball, they could have run it in and scored the two points. If it's like the college rule (and I assume it is) if Roby had run it out and then run back into the end zone for some reason where he was tackled that would have been the very rare 1 point safety.

As for advancing the ball, on 4th down or a try only the player who fumbles the ball can advance it. This is due to Stabler purposely fumbling the ball forward for a touchdown in the 70s. Since there was a change of possession, Roby's fumble could have been advanced by anybody on the Patriots.