JDL
12-30-2009, 05:06 PM
One of the overriding things that has become apparent this week is that the Bengals by kick off may know that if they lose, they'll play the Jets opening round (in fact that is just about 95% guaranteed if that happens) - so, they may not wish to play their starters or develop a strong game plan, so as to avoid tipping their cards to the Jets (remember the Colts a few years back laying down for us?) There is an out of this world situation though that will present the following dilemma or incentive if you will, to the Bengals.
It is still possible for the Bengals to lose and still get the #3 seed in the AFC. If they get the #3 seed they will NOT play the Jets, but rather the #6 seed which could be Baltimore. They've beaten them twice.. but, would the Bengals play to not face them a division foe for the 3rd time in a year, a very physical opponent who knows them inside and out versus someone else?
The tiebreaker between the Bengals and Patriots sorts out like this.
Tiebreakers. Assuming both lose.
1) No Head 2 Head
2) Same Conference record (7-5)
3) Common Opponents (Den/Bal/Hou/NYJ) - TIED
NE (NYJ[1-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [1-0], HOU[0-1]) = 2-3
CIN (NYJ [0-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [2-0], HOU [0-1]) = 2-3
4) Strength of Victory
CURRENT
NE OPP = 65 Wins
CIN OPP = 61 Wins
CINCINNATI DEFEATED OPPONENTS
Green Bay - 10 Wins
Pittsburgh - 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Chicago - 6 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Pittsburgh- 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Detroit - 2 Wins
Kansas City - 3 Wins
Total = 61 Wins
NEW ENGLAND DEFEATED OPPONENTS
Buffalo - 5 Wins
Atlanta - 8 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Tennessee - 7 Wins
Tampa Bay - 3 Wins
Miami - 7 Wins
NY Jets - 8 Wins
Carolina - 7 Wins
Buffalo - 5 Wins
Jacksonville - 7 Wins
= 65 Wins
SO IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS
SF @ STL = N/A
NE @ HOU = Houston Win (NE Loss)
ATL @ TAM = N/A (+1 to NE)
NO @ CAR = New Orleans Win (+0 to NE)
PIT @ MIA = Pittsburgh Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
JAX @ CLE = Cleveland Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
NYG @ MIN = N/A
IND @ BUF = Indianapolis Win (+0 to NE)
CHI @ DET = N/A (+1 to CIN)
WAS @ SD = N/A
TEN @ SEA = Seattle Win (+0 to NE)
BAL @ OAK = Baltimore Win (+2 to CIN/+1 to NE)
PHI @ DAL = N/A
GB @ AZ = Green Bay Win (+1 to CIN)
KC @ DEN = Denver Win - We Hope (+0 to CIN)
*2 are improbable, Jax losing and Ten losing.
Cincinnati = 61 + 8 = 69 Wins
New England = 65 + 2 = 67 Wins
Setting Up
Cincinnati @ NY Jets - (Loss +1 to NE/Win doesn't matter outright #3 seed)
DILEMMA
IF Cincinnati loses in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets #5 Seed.
Jets @ Patriots
Ravens @ Bengals
IF Cincinnati wins in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets drop out, Ravens go to #5, Broncos to #6
Ravens @ Patriots
Broncos @ Bengals (or Houston or Pittsburgh depending on their tiebreakers if Broncos lose.)
More likely of course is a scenario where Pats (sitting their starters) will lose to Houston and set up a scenario where if the Bengals win they then possibly face Baltimore versus losing and facing the Jets.
Bengals will know the different scenarios come Sunday Night. Not highly likely they will try to win, but there are some very outlandish scenarios that could make the decision a little more difficult and possibly save us from relying on Oakland to pull off another miracle.
It is still possible for the Bengals to lose and still get the #3 seed in the AFC. If they get the #3 seed they will NOT play the Jets, but rather the #6 seed which could be Baltimore. They've beaten them twice.. but, would the Bengals play to not face them a division foe for the 3rd time in a year, a very physical opponent who knows them inside and out versus someone else?
The tiebreaker between the Bengals and Patriots sorts out like this.
Tiebreakers. Assuming both lose.
1) No Head 2 Head
2) Same Conference record (7-5)
3) Common Opponents (Den/Bal/Hou/NYJ) - TIED
NE (NYJ[1-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [1-0], HOU[0-1]) = 2-3
CIN (NYJ [0-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [2-0], HOU [0-1]) = 2-3
4) Strength of Victory
CURRENT
NE OPP = 65 Wins
CIN OPP = 61 Wins
CINCINNATI DEFEATED OPPONENTS
Green Bay - 10 Wins
Pittsburgh - 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Chicago - 6 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Pittsburgh- 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Detroit - 2 Wins
Kansas City - 3 Wins
Total = 61 Wins
NEW ENGLAND DEFEATED OPPONENTS
Buffalo - 5 Wins
Atlanta - 8 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Tennessee - 7 Wins
Tampa Bay - 3 Wins
Miami - 7 Wins
NY Jets - 8 Wins
Carolina - 7 Wins
Buffalo - 5 Wins
Jacksonville - 7 Wins
= 65 Wins
SO IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS
SF @ STL = N/A
NE @ HOU = Houston Win (NE Loss)
ATL @ TAM = N/A (+1 to NE)
NO @ CAR = New Orleans Win (+0 to NE)
PIT @ MIA = Pittsburgh Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
JAX @ CLE = Cleveland Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
NYG @ MIN = N/A
IND @ BUF = Indianapolis Win (+0 to NE)
CHI @ DET = N/A (+1 to CIN)
WAS @ SD = N/A
TEN @ SEA = Seattle Win (+0 to NE)
BAL @ OAK = Baltimore Win (+2 to CIN/+1 to NE)
PHI @ DAL = N/A
GB @ AZ = Green Bay Win (+1 to CIN)
KC @ DEN = Denver Win - We Hope (+0 to CIN)
*2 are improbable, Jax losing and Ten losing.
Cincinnati = 61 + 8 = 69 Wins
New England = 65 + 2 = 67 Wins
Setting Up
Cincinnati @ NY Jets - (Loss +1 to NE/Win doesn't matter outright #3 seed)
DILEMMA
IF Cincinnati loses in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets #5 Seed.
Jets @ Patriots
Ravens @ Bengals
IF Cincinnati wins in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets drop out, Ravens go to #5, Broncos to #6
Ravens @ Patriots
Broncos @ Bengals (or Houston or Pittsburgh depending on their tiebreakers if Broncos lose.)
More likely of course is a scenario where Pats (sitting their starters) will lose to Houston and set up a scenario where if the Bengals win they then possibly face Baltimore versus losing and facing the Jets.
Bengals will know the different scenarios come Sunday Night. Not highly likely they will try to win, but there are some very outlandish scenarios that could make the decision a little more difficult and possibly save us from relying on Oakland to pull off another miracle.