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View Full Version : Bengals will lay down? NOT if this happens.



JDL
12-30-2009, 05:06 PM
One of the overriding things that has become apparent this week is that the Bengals by kick off may know that if they lose, they'll play the Jets opening round (in fact that is just about 95% guaranteed if that happens) - so, they may not wish to play their starters or develop a strong game plan, so as to avoid tipping their cards to the Jets (remember the Colts a few years back laying down for us?) There is an out of this world situation though that will present the following dilemma or incentive if you will, to the Bengals.

It is still possible for the Bengals to lose and still get the #3 seed in the AFC. If they get the #3 seed they will NOT play the Jets, but rather the #6 seed which could be Baltimore. They've beaten them twice.. but, would the Bengals play to not face them a division foe for the 3rd time in a year, a very physical opponent who knows them inside and out versus someone else?

The tiebreaker between the Bengals and Patriots sorts out like this.

Tiebreakers. Assuming both lose.

1) No Head 2 Head
2) Same Conference record (7-5)
3) Common Opponents (Den/Bal/Hou/NYJ) - TIED

NE (NYJ[1-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [1-0], HOU[0-1]) = 2-3
CIN (NYJ [0-1], DEN [0-1], BAL [2-0], HOU [0-1]) = 2-3

4) Strength of Victory

CURRENT

NE OPP = 65 Wins
CIN OPP = 61 Wins

CINCINNATI DEFEATED OPPONENTS

Green Bay - 10 Wins
Pittsburgh - 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Chicago - 6 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Pittsburgh- 8 Wins
Cleveland - 4 Wins
Detroit - 2 Wins
Kansas City - 3 Wins

Total = 61 Wins

NEW ENGLAND DEFEATED OPPONENTS

Buffalo - 5 Wins
Atlanta - 8 Wins
Baltimore - 8 Wins
Tennessee - 7 Wins
Tampa Bay - 3 Wins
Miami - 7 Wins
NY Jets - 8 Wins
Carolina - 7 Wins
Buffalo - 5 Wins
Jacksonville - 7 Wins

= 65 Wins

SO IF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS

SF @ STL = N/A
NE @ HOU = Houston Win (NE Loss)
ATL @ TAM = N/A (+1 to NE)
NO @ CAR = New Orleans Win (+0 to NE)
PIT @ MIA = Pittsburgh Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
JAX @ CLE = Cleveland Win (+2 to CIN/+0 to NE)
NYG @ MIN = N/A
IND @ BUF = Indianapolis Win (+0 to NE)
CHI @ DET = N/A (+1 to CIN)
WAS @ SD = N/A
TEN @ SEA = Seattle Win (+0 to NE)
BAL @ OAK = Baltimore Win (+2 to CIN/+1 to NE)
PHI @ DAL = N/A
GB @ AZ = Green Bay Win (+1 to CIN)

KC @ DEN = Denver Win - We Hope (+0 to CIN)

*2 are improbable, Jax losing and Ten losing.

Cincinnati = 61 + 8 = 69 Wins
New England = 65 + 2 = 67 Wins

Setting Up

Cincinnati @ NY Jets - (Loss +1 to NE/Win doesn't matter outright #3 seed)

DILEMMA

IF Cincinnati loses in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets #5 Seed.

Jets @ Patriots
Ravens @ Bengals

IF Cincinnati wins in this scenario, they are the #3 seed, Jets drop out, Ravens go to #5, Broncos to #6

Ravens @ Patriots
Broncos @ Bengals (or Houston or Pittsburgh depending on their tiebreakers if Broncos lose.)

More likely of course is a scenario where Pats (sitting their starters) will lose to Houston and set up a scenario where if the Bengals win they then possibly face Baltimore versus losing and facing the Jets.

Bengals will know the different scenarios come Sunday Night. Not highly likely they will try to win, but there are some very outlandish scenarios that could make the decision a little more difficult and possibly save us from relying on Oakland to pull off another miracle.

UDX
01-02-2010, 03:26 AM
Who knows you might be on to something here - Ray Lewis launch at Ochocinco this year, I certainly wouldn't want that to happen to me but I still can't expect that.

Broncos needed that win against oakland, that was it. I really want broncos to go to playoffs this year but I don't think that Cincy is going to win this sunday - they will likely rest their players and just come out and play for the heck of it - it's a meaningless game to them, they got nothing to prove.

I think that the Bronco's perfect scenario and ONLY hope is a broncos win + ravens loss + hou win.

Most likely new englad will let the hou win, broncos will likely win, however Ravens are the problem. It seems to me that in general though - Ravens, Cowboys and Steelers are teams that are just not liked in the NFL so oakland might just do it.

I don't know, someone said most of the games will happen early in the day before bronco's game, so we'll see.

EastCoastBronco
01-02-2010, 11:10 AM
The way KC has been playing the past couple of weeks we better not take that thing for granted. I would have thought our home game against Oakland would have taught us that. Other than that whack we put on them 3 weeks ago, they have been playing solid ball.

Nomad
01-02-2010, 11:41 AM
Thought this was interesting!!

____________________________

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4788472

NFL to ask group for review

The NFL will ask the competition committee to review integrity of game- and competitive-balance concerns with clinching playoff teams that choose to rest starters at the end of the season.


"This is an issue that we have reviewed in the past. The position of the competition committee, and affirmed by the clubs, when it was reviewed in 2005 was that 'a team that has clinched its division title has earned the right to rest its starters for the postseason, and that preparing for the postseason is just as important as protecting some other team's playoff opportunity.' That is the current policy," league spokesman Greg Aiello said.

"We are aware of the fan reaction and that is a factor to be considered," he continued. "Some teams that have everything clinched, like the Giants and Patriots two years ago, choose to play all out to continue or gain momentum for the playoffs. We expect to continue to review this issue."

The Colts' recent 29-15 loss to the New York Jets, which ended their shot at an undefeated season, didn't sit well with Colts fans and NFL purists.

The Colts (14-1) had nothing significant to play for, having clinched their eighth straight playoff berth in late November. In a controversial decision, coach Jim Caldwell chose to sit quarterback Peyton Manning and numerous starters for most of the second half.

The Jets' win boosted the playoff chances for New York, which can clinch a postseason spot with a victory Sunday against the Bengals. Cincinnati, which has clinched the AFC North, also might sit some of its key players during Sunday night's game against the Jets.

Information from ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen and The Associated Press was used in this report.

Ravage!!!
01-02-2010, 12:20 PM
Not much the competitition committee can do, unless they start scheduling division games at the end of the season more, to increase the odds of needed games. If they make a rule where they MUST start players, then you'll just see the players claiming injuries and put on the injury report. Everyone has bruises and things anyway.

JDL
01-02-2010, 04:06 PM
Not much the competitition committee can do, unless they start scheduling division games at the end of the season more, to increase the odds of needed games. If they make a rule where they MUST start players, then you'll just see the players claiming injuries and put on the injury report. Everyone has bruises and things anyway.

That's what I've been advocating... makes no sense the Chargers AND Bengals did not play 1 SINGLE DIVISION GAME, the last 5 weeks of the season. I mean in what sport does that happen?

Baseball by and large you finish against your division, Basketball is just different, College football and Basketball you finish your season with conference games because well, they ARE MORE important than any other games you play... instead ... there are teams who play 2 of their 4 non-conference games at the end of the season??? That makes no damn sense. Shorten preseason and do the following.

1st 6 Weeks

4 Non-Conference Games
2 Non-Common Opponent Conference Games (each division team plays 2 non-common conference opponents as compared to their other division opponents.)

next 6 Weeks

3 Division Games
3 Common Opponent Conference games

Last 4 Weeks

3 Division Games
1 Conference Game

Bye Weeks mixed in appropriately.


This would basically assure that the teams that play best LATE get into the playoffs, because as we've seen with Tennessee, when you lose a lot of early conference games, you are basically done, had the same thing happened but had played their 4 non-conference games, they would have had conference and division games late to make their hay... and would have been much more in it, instead, they were essentially done with their conference record.

JDL
01-02-2010, 04:08 PM
BTW, you can't totally eliminate the sitting starters thing... but you can minimize it with this formula because teams like San Diego, New England and Cincinnati would be fighting into the final weeks for the division title, instead of locking it up with about 3 weeks to go.

Nomad
01-02-2010, 04:26 PM
The first 3 games and last 3 games should be divisional games!!

Nomad
01-03-2010, 08:38 PM
Looks like the Bengals are laying down so far!!

Medford Bronco
01-03-2010, 08:49 PM
The way KC has been playing the past couple of weeks we better not take that thing for granted. I would have thought our home game against Oakland would have taught us that. Other than that whack we put on them 3 weeks ago, they have been playing solid ball.

Unfortunatley you were on to something here. Great insight:salute:

Nomad
01-03-2010, 09:53 PM
OMG! Jets 24 Bengals 0!! Sorry Kubes!!

HORSEPOWER 56
01-03-2010, 10:12 PM
It's as it should be, the two teams that controlled their own destinies are doing what it takes to make the playoffs.

Nomad
01-03-2010, 10:16 PM
Well, the Bengals play the Jets next weekend again!! I wanted to see the Texans get in though, so I hope the Jets beat the Bengals again next weekend!!

JDL
01-03-2010, 10:23 PM
What needed to happen didn't... Bengals were staring at facing the Jets next week with a loss or the Ravens next week with a win... so like I said... they wouldn't really try to win in that scenario.

I'm theoretically fine with the loss to KC - not with the way we played... just because we needed the better late picks to replenish the talent on this team. But, like college teams it is nice to at least go out on a high note... that would have been good... unfortunately... lot's of drama on the horizon.