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View Full Version : Possible Scenario: 7 team tie for WC heading into week 17



BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 02:37 PM
Obviously we'd all like to win our last 2 and control our on destiny, but this would be an interesting scenario just as a pure football fan. If all of the results below were to happen next week, there would be 7 teams tied at 8-7 heading into the last week of the season. And even if a few of these results don't happen, there could still be something like a 4 or 5 way tie, still quite unique. It's also possible (although not desirable for us) that a team could start 6-0 and miss the playoffs and another team start 0-6 and make the playoffs in the same season.

As disappointed as we all are over yesterday's events, it could possibly set off the craziest set of Wild Card scenarios in NFL history. Week 16 will be very interesting to say the least.

Ten over SD
Phi over Den
Hou/Mia (both 7-7, so it doesn't matter who wins)
Jax over NE
Pit over Bal
NY over Indy

Now for Denver's sake, we should want all of the opposite of these results to happen to maximize our chances for the playoffs, and that is realistic, as SD, NE, Bal, and Indy are all very capable of winning their games. And for tie-breaking reasons, we would want Houston to beat Miami because we would have the conference record tiebreaker over them. I know many of you don't want us to "back in" to the playoffs, but it's definitely a possible scenario.

Needless to say, there will be no lack of drama in the AFC over the next two weeks!

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 02:39 PM
I also want to add, I don't want this thread to turn into a doom and gloom, Broncos suck, I hate Orton/McD, we don't deserve to make the playoffs type of thread. There are already 100 of those on here you can post in if you want to go that route. I just want this to be a civil discussion about the interesting scenarios. I'm not going to hold my breath though.

missingnumber7
12-21-2009, 03:03 PM
Now for Denver's sake, we should want all of the opposite of these results to happen to maximize our chances for the playoffs, and that is realistic, as SD, NE, Bal, and Indy are all very capable of winning their games. And for tie-breaking reasons, we would want Houston to beat Miami because we would have the conference record tiebreaker over them. I know many of you don't want us to "back in" to the playoffs, but it's definitely a possible scenario.

Needless to say, there will be no lack of drama in the AFC over the next two weeks!

I think that we want Pit to beat Bal to go with our win. After that it really doesn't matter.

By my positive spin on this is if we win and take care of our work. We are in...just like last year.

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 03:17 PM
I think that we want Pit to beat Bal to go with our win. After that it really doesn't matter.

By my positive spin on this is if we win and take care of our work. We are in...just like last year.

It's tough to say. If Pitt beats Baltimore and we lose to Philly, we are all 3 at 8-7 heading into week 17 and they both have us in the tiebreaker. If Baltimore wins, that puts Pitt out and it puts us at 8-7 fighting against whichever other teams are 8-7 heading into the last week for the last WC spot, which hopefully won't be many.

Now if we beat Philly, none of this really matters assuming we beat KC too.

Buff
12-21-2009, 03:25 PM
I think Pittsburgh got their swagger back yesterday, which worries me a little. I think Denver, Baltimore and Pittsburgh will all end up at 9-7... Which, I think, would mean that we'd get in along with the tie-breaker winner between those two... Even though they both hold the tie breaker against us.

Northman
12-21-2009, 03:28 PM
How i see it playing out this week.

Ten over SD (Possible but not likely)
Phi over Den (Very possible)
Hou/Mia (both 7-7, so it doesn't matter who wins) (As you said, doesnt matter)
Jax over NE (Not happening)
Pit over Bal (Possible)
NY over Indy (Not Happening)

Ravage!!!
12-21-2009, 03:34 PM
How i see it playing out this week.

Ten over SD (Possible but not likely)
Phi over Den (Very possible)
Hou/Mia (both 7-7, so it doesn't matter who wins) (As you said, doesnt matter)
Jax over NE (Not happening)
Pit over Bal (Possible)
NY over Indy (Not Happening)

Ok... so if it plays out like you said...

SD over Ten (which is most likely)
Phi over Denver (most likely)
Hou/Mia
NE over Jax (probably)
Pit over Baltimore (this is a 50-50 imo)
Indy over NY (probably)

what does this do for Denver's chances?

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 03:38 PM
I think Pittsburgh got their swagger back yesterday, which worries me a little. I think Denver, Baltimore and Pittsburgh will all end up at 9-7... Which, I think, would mean that we'd get in along with the tie-breaker winner between those two... Even though they both hold the tie breaker against us.

I don't think so. Let's assume we were to all finish 9-7 and no other team does. Baltimore would be the 5 seed due to the division record tiebreaker over Pitt and the H2H win over us. If we and Pitt were the ONLY remaining teams at 9-7, Pitt gets in with their H2H win over us.

Now if any other teams were to join we and Pitt at 9-7, it would get interesting. If only TEN were to join us at 9-7, Pitt gets in having beaten both of us.

Miami is out in this scenario because of what would be a week 17 loss to Pitt, so in this case it's better for them to have beaten Houston in week 16, thus eliminating both of those teams. That would leave us, Pitt, and maybe NY and Ten, depending on how they do. If only Ten joins us and Pitt, we are out. If only NY, or NY and Ten join us at 9-7, the tiebreak scenarios get to complicated for me to break down now.

Northman
12-21-2009, 03:40 PM
Ok... so if it plays out like you said...

SD over Ten (which is most likely)
Phi over Denver (most likely)
Hou/Mia
NE over Jax (probably)
Pit over Baltimore (this is a 50-50 imo)
Indy over NY (probably)

what does this do for Denver's chances?


Not really sure. I think for Denver its going to come down to the final week unless teams like Tennesse, Bmore, Pitt, or Miami win out.

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 03:45 PM
Ok... so if it plays out like you said...

SD over Ten (which is most likely)
Phi over Denver (most likely)
Hou/Mia
NE over Jax (probably)
Pit over Baltimore (this is a 50-50 imo)
Indy over NY (probably)

what does this do for Denver's chances?

In this scenario (and we'll give Miami the win as the home team), this would be the standings heading into week 17:

Bal: 8-7
Pit: 8-7
Den: 8-7
Mia: 8-7

Assume that we beat KC and Bal beats Oak, that puts us both at 9-7. Pitt plays Mia in week 17 so if Pitt wins, that puts us out.

If Miami wins, it's a 3-way tie for the last 2 spots. We'd all be 7-5 in conference so then it goes to common opponents and so on. Since it's unlikely that the 3 of us have 4 common opponents, it goes to strength of victory, which is too hard to compute right now.

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 04:02 PM
The worst case scenario for us is Miami and Pitt winning this week, Den, NY, Jax, and Ten losing this week, and Den, Pit and Bal winning in week 17. That leaves only Den, Bal, and Pit at 9-7 and leaves us out in the cold.

Now if all this happens except Miami beats Pitt in week 17, that leaves only Den, Mia, and Bal at 9-7 bringing us back to the complicated 3-way tiebreak.

Ravage!!!
12-21-2009, 04:02 PM
In this scenario (and we'll give Miami the win as the home team), this would be the standings heading into week 17:

Bal: 8-7
Pit: 8-7
Den: 8-7
Mia: 8-7

Assume that we beat KC and Bal beats Oak, that puts us both at 9-7. Pitt plays Mia in week 17 so if Pitt wins, that puts us out.

If Miami wins, it's a 3-way tie for the last 2 spots. We'd all be 7-5 in conference so then it goes to common opponents and so on. Since it's unlikely that the 3 of us have 4 common opponents, it goes to strength of victory, which is too hard to compute right now.

Ok..same scenario, but Baltimore wins the game against Pitt and Mia LOSSES to Houston?

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 04:14 PM
Ok..same scenario, but Baltimore wins the game against Pitt and Mia LOSSES to Houston?

Ok, so here goes the week 16 results in your scenario (this is probably the best case scenario for us):

SD over Ten
Phi over Denver
Hou over Mia
NE over Jax
Bal over Pit
Indy over NY

These are the standings heading into week 17:

Bal: 9-6
Den: 8-7
Hou: 8-7

Now assume we and Bal win, that puts Bal in at 10-6 and leaves us and Houston.

Houston plays the Pats in week 17, so assuming NE beats them, we are in.

If Houston beats NE, we still beat them in conference record and we get in.

Now if we and Houston BOTH lose, that brings all the 7-8 teams back into it and gets WAY to complicated to sort out here.

Italianmobstr7
12-21-2009, 04:37 PM
I saw this on another board but I figured I'd ask here... Do we clinch a playoff berth with
A win and a Jack,Mia,NYJ,Pitt loss this week?

Buff
12-21-2009, 04:43 PM
I don't think so. Let's assume we were to all finish 9-7 and no other team does. Baltimore would be the 5 seed due to the division record tiebreaker over Pitt and the H2H win over us. If we and Pitt were the ONLY remaining teams at 9-7, Pitt gets in with their H2H win over us.

Now if any other teams were to join we and Pitt at 9-7, it would get interesting. If only TEN were to join us at 9-7, Pitt gets in having beaten both of us.

Miami is out in this scenario because of what would be a week 17 loss to Pitt, so in this case it's better for them to have beaten Houston in week 16, thus eliminating both of those teams. That would leave us, Pitt, and maybe NY and Ten, depending on how they do. If only Ten joins us and Pitt, we are out. If only NY, or NY and Ten join us at 9-7, the tiebreak scenarios get to complicated for me to break down now.

I think you're right. The tie-breaker language is so confusing. For instance, it says to break a 3-way tie you:

1.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step
2.) The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

So, initially I thought that if you had to apply the divisional tie-breaker to Pitt and Baltimore that one of them would be left out in the cold... But then if you read a little further it says, "When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card." And that is the key statement in this instance... That means that we'd lose because both of them own the H2H against us.

MasterShake
12-21-2009, 04:52 PM
Wow, when you guys put it like this the next few weeks look like a lot of fun in the AFC! I think Denver has a great chance still, and its gonna be fun rooting against other teams.

I don't care if we barge in, charge in, back in, side step or two step I want to see them in the Playoffs!:salute:

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 04:57 PM
I saw this on another board but I figured I'd ask here... Do we clinch a playoff berth with
A win and a Jack,Mia,NYJ,Pitt loss this week?

Let's see, that puts us and Bal at 9-6 and Hou at 8-7.

Let's say Bal and Hou win in week 17 and we lose.

That puts both us and Hou at 9-7 fighting for the last spot. We would both be 6-6 in the AFC and 3-2 in games against common opponents.

So then it comes down to strength of victory. There may be some complicated chain of events that guarantees us a better strength of victory than them by week 17 but I doubt it.

So to answer your question, no, I don't think we can clinch a WC this week.

Buff
12-21-2009, 04:58 PM
I think you're right. The tie-breaker language is so confusing. For instance, it says to break a 3-way tie you:

1.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step
2.) The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

So, initially I thought that if you had to apply the divisional tie-breaker to Pitt and Baltimore that one of them would be left out in the cold... But then if you read a little further it says, "When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card." And that is the key statement in this instance... That means that we'd lose because both of them own the H2H against us.

So the moral of this story is that we want Baltimore to win this weekend.

BroncoBJ
12-21-2009, 05:01 PM
Well if the Ravens beat Pitt this week...

And then the Jets, Jags, and Fins all lose.

And we win.

Then we're in the playoffs. :elefant:

So I'm just gonna root for that. :salute:

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 05:08 PM
Let's see, that puts us and Bal at 9-6 and Hou at 8-7.

Let's say Bal and Hou win in week 17 and we lose.

That puts both us and Hou at 9-7 fighting for the last spot. We would both be 6-6 in the AFC and 3-2 in games against common opponents.

So then it comes down to strength of victory. There may be some complicated chain of events that guarantees us a better strength of victory than them by week 17 but I doubt it.

So to answer your question, no, I don't think we can clinch a WC this week.

To add to this, our current strength of victory is .447 compared to Houston's .387 so this scenario would likely all but clinch us a spot heading into week 17, but I can't say that 100%.

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 05:13 PM
So the moral of this story is that we want Baltimore to win this weekend.

Yes, that seems to be the better scenario, although there are probably a couple of combinations of events that could make it better for Pitt to win.

It's so confusing at this point it's hard to say, but assuming that neither Indy, SD, or NE get upset by the 7-7 teams they face this week, then yes, it is probably best for Baltimore to beat Pitt, because that would put Bal in, and leave us and the Mia/Hou winner fighting for the last spot in week 17. As for those 2 teams, we either want Hou to beat Mia, or Mia to beat Hou then lose to Pit (assuming Pit lost to Bal). Those 2 scenarios put us in.

BroncoBJ
12-21-2009, 06:09 PM
To add to this, our current strength of victory is .447 compared to Houston's .387 so this scenario would likely all but clinch us a spot heading into week 17, but I can't say that 100%.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/scenarios

Denver can clinch a playoff spot with:

* a win (vs. Philadelphia) and a Jacksonville loss or tie (vs. New England) and a Miami loss or tie (vs. Houston) and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie (vs. Indianapolis) and a Pittsburgh loss or tie (vs. Baltimore)


Thats whats up. :salute:

:elefant:

BroncoWave
12-21-2009, 07:09 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/scenarios

Denver can clinch a playoff spot with:

* a win (vs. Philadelphia) and a Jacksonville loss or tie (vs. New England) and a Miami loss or tie (vs. Houston) and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie (vs. Indianapolis) and a Pittsburgh loss or tie (vs. Baltimore)


Thats whats up. :salute:

:elefant:

Ah ok. Well I guess our strength of victory is guaranteed to be better than Houston's. Sweet!

broncobryce
12-27-2009, 03:26 PM
So far so good

Zweems56
12-27-2009, 03:39 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/scenarios

Denver can clinch a playoff spot with:

* a win (vs. Philadelphia) and a Jacksonville loss or tie (vs. New England) and a Miami loss or tie (vs. Houston) and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie (vs. Indianapolis) and a Pittsburgh loss or tie (vs. Baltimore)


Thats whats up. :salute:

:elefant:

Those are looking to be locked. Pitt and Ravens tied, and Jets will almost surely lose to the colts... I mean... come on. :lol:

BroncoWave
12-27-2009, 03:40 PM
Those are looking to be locked. Pitt and Ravens tied, and Jets will almost surely lose to the colts... I mean... come on. :lol:

Baltimore is trying all they can to give Pitt the game so I don't know about that one yet.