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View Full Version : Is trading up with St. Louis cheaper than trading up with Atlanta?



lex
02-08-2008, 01:46 PM
Since a lot of people have St Louis looking at OL and since there are some decent OL in this draft at 12, do you think St Louis would be more apt to trade down, than, say, Atlanta? If youre St Louis and youre looking at dradting an OL and youre not enamored with Long who played in a ZBS in college, might you want to trade down to 12 to get Clady or Williams?

Meanwhile, if youre Atlanta, you actually might want to stay there to replace Michael Vick with a prized pick. Besides, Atlantas new coach was the Jax DC before and he would probably prefer Ellis/Dorsey over the other DTs since the DTs are a big part of the Jax defense while StL just took Carreker last year.

Also, keep in mind what Sundquist said about how last year 8 of the 10 teams approached us about trading down...again, we didnt approach them, they approached us.

MOtorboat
02-08-2008, 01:54 PM
Pick No. 2 - 2600
Pick No. 3 - 2200

Broncos Picks:
Pick No. 12 - 1200
Pick No. 44 - 460
Pick No. 100 - 100
Pick No. 108 - 78
Pick No. 140 - 36
Pick No. 149 - 131.8
Pick No. 204 - 10.8
Total Value = 1916.8

BroncoAV06
02-08-2008, 02:05 PM
If they find out that Pace can come back healthy next year that could mean that they will hold off on the OL till the 2nd or 3rd and go after a DT/DE at where ever they end up, 3-4-or 5. Barron is a RT so he will slide back over Pace in at LT, and then they could actually get a top G in the 2nd. It dosn't really look like the Rams will want to trade down.

lex
02-08-2008, 02:17 PM
Pick No. 2 - 2600
Pick No. 3 - 2200

Broncos Picks:
Pick No. 12 - 1200
Pick No. 44 - 460
Pick No. 100 - 100
Pick No. 108 - 78
Pick No. 140 - 36
Pick No. 149 - 131.8
Pick No. 204 - 10.8
Total Value = 1916.8

Yeah, Im familiar with the value chart. But many consider the top 10 to be overvalued and when you look at how more teams want to trade out of the top 10 but cant, those people are probably right.

BOSSHOGG30
02-08-2008, 02:31 PM
I think the 5-7 range is the highest we can go.

lex
02-08-2008, 02:34 PM
If they find out that Pace can come back healthy next year that could mean that they will hold off on the OL till the 2nd or 3rd and go after a DT/DE at where ever they end up, 3-4-or 5. Barron is a RT so he will slide back over Pace in at LT, and then they could actually get a top G in the 2nd. It dosn't really look like the Rams will want to trade down.

Perhaps. But I was kind of addressing a scenario specific to them wanting an OL. They might be going for OL or they might be going DL.

lex
02-08-2008, 02:40 PM
I think the 5-7 range is the highest we can go.


Last year they almost traded up to Detroits spot and now we're about 10 spots higher.

BOSSHOGG30
02-08-2008, 02:52 PM
Last year they almost traded up to Detroits spot and now we're about 10 spots higher.

They tried to trade up that high but couldn't do it... they actually had an agreement with the Texans, but the Texans back out... Shanny was targeting Patrick Willis and was trying to get ahead of the 49ers.

lex
02-08-2008, 03:26 PM
They tried to trade up that high but couldn't do it... they actually had an agreement with the Texans, but the Texans back out... Shanny was targeting Patrick Willis and was trying to get ahead of the 49ers.

Yeah, Ive heard that about Houston as well, but regarding Detroit, it seems that I had read that it was almost a done deal to move up...and that was like 20 spots.

SmilinAssasSin27
02-08-2008, 05:21 PM
I think the chart is used by quite a few of the teams...so no it wouldn't be cheaper.

shank
02-08-2008, 08:59 PM
eff that, trade down

WARHORSE
02-08-2008, 09:19 PM
I think the 5-7 range is the highest we can go.

Why? We had a deal in place to move up to the second pick in the first round with Detroit last year before Calvin Johnson blistered the 40 at the combine, and our draft selection was lower than this years.

We also had deals in place that traded away this years number one pick as well. That was with the Broncos thinking they would be drafting in the late twenties of the first round at minimum Im sure. Its because of that reason that Im thinking that Denver will trade away next years first rounder to get more this year, taking advantage of our place in the draft next year. If theres another team among the other 31 teams in the NFL that thinks we will get worse before we get better, then they will be thinking our draft pick will be higher than it is now.

Perfect time to get a franchise DT like Dorsey dont ya think? Nonstop motor in Chris Long? That guy amazes me.

WARHORSE
02-08-2008, 09:20 PM
They tried to trade up that high but couldn't do it... they actually had an agreement with the Texans, but the Texans back out... Shanny was targeting Patrick Willis and was trying to get ahead of the 49ers.

Actually, Denver never even spoke to Houston about a trade for their tenth pick the entire offseason.

BOSSHOGG30
02-09-2008, 09:35 AM
Why? We had a deal in place to move up to the second pick in the first round with Detroit last year before Calvin Johnson blistered the 40 at the combine, and our draft selection was lower than this years.

We also had deals in place that traded away this years number one pick as well. That was with the Broncos thinking they would be drafting in the late twenties of the first round at minimum Im sure. Its because of that reason that Im thinking that Denver will trade away next years first rounder to get more this year, taking advantage of our place in the draft next year. If theres another team among the other 31 teams in the NFL that thinks we will get worse before we get better, then they will be thinking our draft pick will be higher than it is now.

Perfect time to get a franchise DT like Dorsey dont ya think? Nonstop motor in Chris Long? That guy amazes me.


I hope so war... I wanted Okoye last year so bad... this year I still want a star DT... They are hard to find... just like QB's, but I haven't seen two DT this talented in a long time. Dorsey is my #1, but Ellis wouldn't hurt either.

If we had Dorsey and Thomas in the middle....... My goodness!

No reason Doom can't get 15+ sacks... teams would be stupid to double team him.

jlarsiii
02-09-2008, 11:17 AM
Why? We had a deal in place to move up to the second pick in the first round with Detroit last year before Calvin Johnson blistered the 40 at the combine, and our draft selection was lower than this years.

We also had deals in place that traded away this years number one pick as well. That was with the Broncos thinking they would be drafting in the late twenties of the first round at minimum Im sure. Its because of that reason that Im thinking that Denver will trade away next years first rounder to get more this year, taking advantage of our place in the draft next year. If theres another team among the other 31 teams in the NFL that thinks we will get worse before we get better, then they will be thinking our draft pick will be higher than it is now.

Perfect time to get a franchise DT like Dorsey dont ya think? Nonstop motor in Chris Long? That guy amazes me.

I am not comfortable with trading away next year's first round pick. I would feel comfortable in doing that only if this year's draft was stacked, in a huge area of need, with sure-fire can't miss prospects. That is not the case so as of right now I am strongly against trading away next year's first round pick.

Although not in this particular thread I have seen plenty of people complain about trading away a 3rd round pick to get Thomas and you want to ship off a 1st round pick. That could definitely blow up in your face.

I am all for being patient and building through the draft. It will be harder to do so if we continue to squander our draft picks.

haroldthebarrel
02-09-2008, 11:24 AM
this is a draft where i would really want to trade down and pick up a lot of second and third rounders.

In my ratings I think that Okoye rates out way higher than both dorsey and ellis. however there are ample second tier dts that have an extremely high ceiling.

This draft is so loaded from pick 10 to about 50. get as many picks as you can between 30 and 50 and watch as other teams pick needs while talent on our need positions fall to us.

BOSSHOGG30
02-09-2008, 11:31 AM
this is a draft where i would really want to trade down and pick up a lot of second and third rounders.

In my ratings I think that Okoye rates out way higher than both dorsey and ellis. however there are ample second tier dts that have an extremely high ceiling.

This draft is so loaded from pick 10 to about 50. get as many picks as you can between 30 and 50 and watch as other teams pick needs while talent on our need positions fall to us.

I think we say this every year. I'm sure we will all think the same thing next year.

Dorsey projects to be a lot better of a player than Okoye. I haven't seen a DT rank as good as Dorsey since Tommie Harris.

haroldthebarrel
02-09-2008, 11:36 AM
I think we say this every year. I'm sure we will all think the same thing next year.

Dorsey projects to be a lot better of a player than Okoye. I haven't seen a DT rank as good as Dorsey since Tommie Harris.

I like Dorsey as a project, but I wont put him near Okoye. Harris was the highest DT I have ever rated. I was so pissed when we didnt pull out a trade when he was so near.
Okoye was so young, so mature, so everything that he did even make a huge impact along with Dumervil, who in his own right had a college hall of fame career.

Still, the main point that I am making is that we should really trade down this year. This draft doesn really have that much top blue chip talent. Perhaps 5 at the most. But the second tiers are so deep it is salivatingly up for grabs.

BOSSHOGG30
02-09-2008, 11:38 AM
I like Dorsey as a project, but I wont put him near Okoye. Harris was the highest DT I have ever rated. I was so pissed when we didnt pull out a trade when he was so near.
Okoye was so young, so mature, so everything that he did even make a huge impact along with Dumervil, who in his own right had a college hall of fame career.

Still, the main point that I am making is that we should really trade down this year. This draft doesn really have that much top blue chip talent. Perhaps 5 at the most. But the second tiers are so deep it is salivatingly up for grabs.

I agree with you unless we are going after Dorsey or Ellis, but Dorsey by far.... a don't see anyone worth staying at 12 for unless we are high on Jonathon Stewart, and I doubt it considering how well Young and Hall played and we still have Henry. If we pick at 12 we will be reaching for just about anyone we pick... so if that is the situation we need to trade back.

haroldthebarrel
02-09-2008, 11:44 AM
I agree with you unless we are going after Dorsey or Ellis, but Dorsey by far.... a don't see anyone worth staying at 12 for unless we are high on Jonathon Stewart, and I doubt it considering how well Young and Hall played and we still have Henry. If we pick at 12 we will be reaching for just about anyone we pick... so if that is the situation we need to trade back.

who do you want in this draft?

BOSSHOGG30
02-09-2008, 11:53 AM
who do you want in this draft?

My top 20

1) Glenn Dorsey
2) Sedrick Ellis
3) Chris Long
4) Jake Long
5) Jonathon Stewart
6) Dan Connor
7) Reggie Smith
8) Philip Wheeler
9) Kentwan Balmer
10) Keith Rivers
11) Ryan Clady
12) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13) Jeff Otah
14) Pat Sims
15) Kenny Phillips
16) Simeon Castille
17) DeJaun Morgan
18) Dre Moore
19) Quentin Groves
20) Jamaal Charles

mclark
02-11-2008, 01:49 PM
Give up the entire draft to move up to #5? No. Trading down makes more sense -- but then you have to have a partner willing to do it.

We need more picks not fewer picks. Or we need to sit where we are and get the best DT, OT, MLB, Safety...we can find.

lex
02-11-2008, 01:50 PM
Give up the entire draft to move up to #5? No. Trading down makes more sense -- but then you have to have a partner willing to do it.

We need more picks not fewer picks. Or we need to sit where we are and get the best DT, OT, MLB, Safety...we can find.

Reading is fundamental

mclark
02-11-2008, 01:51 PM
Reading is fundamental

Thinking is also fundamental.

lex
02-11-2008, 02:05 PM
Thinking is also fundamental.

I think you mean "imagination" since I dont think anyone has suggested what youre alluding to.

mclark
02-11-2008, 02:14 PM
I think you mean "imagination" since I dont think anyone has suggested what youre alluding to.

There have been posts on several different threads suggesting we trade up to #5 and draft Sedrick Ellis or Dorsey.

As MissouriBronco points out:

Pick No. 2 - 2600
Pick No. 3 - 2200

Broncos Picks:
Pick No. 12 - 1200
Pick No. 44 - 460
Pick No. 100 - 100
Pick No. 108 - 78
Pick No. 140 - 36
Pick No. 149 - 131.8
Pick No. 204 - 10.8
Total Value = 1916.8

...we would have to trade our entire draft to move up into the top five.

BOSSHOGG30
02-11-2008, 02:24 PM
There have been posts on several different threads suggesting we trade up to #5 and draft Sedrick Ellis or Dorsey.

As MissouriBronco points out:

Pick No. 2 - 2600
Pick No. 3 - 2200

Broncos Picks:
Pick No. 12 - 1200
Pick No. 44 - 460
Pick No. 100 - 100
Pick No. 108 - 78
Pick No. 140 - 36
Pick No. 149 - 131.8
Pick No. 204 - 10.8
Total Value = 1916.8

...we would have to trade our entire draft to move up into the top five.


We didn't have to trade our entire draft with the agreement we had with the Lions last year and that would of put us at #2 overall and we even have a better draft pick this year plus 2 extra 4th rounders... Plus you can always throw in a 1st rounder for next year.

I'm all for jumping up and getting Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis.

mclark
02-11-2008, 02:38 PM
We didn't have to trade our entire draft with the agreement we had with the Lions last year and that would of put us at #2 overall and we even have a better draft pick this year plus 2 extra 4th rounders... Plus you can always throw in a 1st rounder for next year.

I'm all for jumping up and getting Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis.

The Lions were crazy. But the talk was we were sending them a healthy Al Wilson, Tatum Bell and George Foster and draft picks (we don't know how many). Who are we sending this year? Javon is damaged goods. Henry: does anyone want him? Foxworth? That's probably a better package than we had last year. But who would jump for that? The Raiders?

BOSSHOGG30
02-11-2008, 02:54 PM
I don't know if you can say they are crazy... I mean who is to say that a stupid sheet or formula is really a good gauge on how much a certian draft pick is worth. I mean think about it... draft classes change each year... so shouldn't the #'s on that formula page?

In the Dolpins case... is one really good player worth more than picking up 2 or 3 good players? Dolphins would be stupid not to take a decent deal if it helped them get more good players on that very bad team.

lex
02-11-2008, 02:55 PM
The Lions were crazy. But the talk was we were sending them a healthy Al Wilson, Tatum Bell and George Foster and draft picks (we don't know how many). Who are we sending this year? Javon is damaged goods. Henry: does anyone want him? Foxworth? That's probably a better package than we had last year. But who would jump for that? The Raiders?

Again, this year youre also talking about moving up 10-ish spots instead of 20-ish. And its funny how you drop Fosters name like he's some gem but when it comes to Walker or Foxworth, they suck. And Bell couldnt play through pain and fumbled all the time. But apparently you think what we were giving them last year was so much better than this year. OK.

lex
02-11-2008, 02:59 PM
I don't know if you can say they are crazy... I mean who is to say that a stupid sheet or formula is really a good gauge on how much a certian draft pick is worth. I mean think about it... draft classes change each year... so shouldn't the #'s on that formula page?

In the Dolpins case... is one really good player worth more than picking up 2 or 3 good players? Dolphins would be stupid not to take a decent deal if it helped them get more good players on that very bad team.

This was already addressed. If the top 10 was truly worth what that chart says it is, youd see more teams wanting to trade up. As it is, those teams want to trade down. Take last year for example, 8/10 teams (per the Sundquist interview) contacted us in the low 20s to see if we wanted to trade into the top 10. I dont think that many teams are under the assumption that we're willing to trade our entire slate of picks just to move up in the top 10. I dont think teams really expect the value that the chart lays out.

BOSSHOGG30
02-11-2008, 03:14 PM
This was already addressed. If the top 10 was truly worth what that chart says it is, youd see more teams wanting to trade up. As it is, those teams want to trade down. Take last year for example, 8/10 teams (per the Sundquist interview) contacted us in the low 20s to see if we wanted to trade into the top 10. I dont think that many teams are under the assumption that we're willing to trade our entire slate of picks just to move up in the top 10. I dont think teams really expect the value that the chart lays out.


Good post Lex... That is what I'm talking about... I wouldn't trade away our entire draft to move up this year... but I don't think it will cost us that to do it... this is the year teams are trying to trade down, not up... last year you had people trying to trade up like crazy... I'm not sure we will have that this year. No one knows who is the better DT... Dorsey or Ellis... No one is really happy about the OL prospects, we don't know what QB will be better, there just aren't any top of the line prospects besides Dorsey, Chris Long, McFadden, and Ellis.... plus McFadden may be great, but because of the other good backs in this years draft teams may be willing to wait.

mclark
02-11-2008, 03:55 PM
Again, this year youre also talking about moving up 10-ish spots instead of 20-ish. And its funny how you drop Fosters name like he's some gem but when it comes to Walker or Foxworth, they suck. And Bell couldnt play through pain and fumbled all the time. But apparently you think what we were giving them last year was so much better than this year. OK.

Walker is playing on a bum knee -- and ignored his doctor's suggestion he have micro-fracture surgery. And he missed half a season because of that knee injury. I think that makes him potetially damaged goods.

I think Detroit finally came to their senses and realized that proposed trade (if it ever REALLY was close to completion) would have been a bonehead move. We don't really know if it was seriously considered or not.

I don't think teams with a top-five pick are going to stand in line to get a mediocre team's rejects so they can give up that top-5 pick.

mclark
02-11-2008, 04:00 PM
This was already addressed. If the top 10 was truly worth what that chart says it is, youd see more teams wanting to trade up. As it is, those teams want to trade down. Take last year for example, 8/10 teams (per the Sundquist interview) contacted us in the low 20s to see if we wanted to trade into the top 10. I dont think that many teams are under the assumption that we're willing to trade our entire slate of picks just to move up in the top 10. I dont think teams really expect the value that the chart lays out.

The reason teams want to trade down is that bad teams draft first and they understand they have more than one hole to fill on their teams -- that MORE PICKS make more sense for them. The top 10 picks DO have more value and they are trying to get more picks for that value.

From what I've read, teams do work with a version of the value chart. Who knows?

mclark
02-11-2008, 04:10 PM
I don't know if you can say they are crazy... I mean who is to say that a stupid sheet or formula is really a good gauge on how much a certian draft pick is worth. I mean think about it... draft classes change each year... so shouldn't the #'s on that formula page?

In the Dolpins case... is one really good player worth more than picking up 2 or 3 good players? Dolphins would be stupid not to take a decent deal if it helped them get more good players on that very bad team.

Whether it is a stupid sheet or a stupid formula is anyone's opinion I guess. If teams use the value chart, then it doesn't really matter if it's stupid or not.

I'm not saying teams won't be willing to trade down, I'm just saying they will be expecting just compensation to do so. Do they need Javon Walker, Travis Henry and Foxworth and our #12 and our second round pick to do that? Or do they just talk to another team that's offering something else?

Anything's possible -- but every year we get excited about trading all our rejects and moving up. With Detroit it apparently almost worked last year. But Detroit has a history of making suspicious personnel moves.

It's possible we could move up in the draft. It's possible.

Lonestar
02-11-2008, 05:54 PM
Whether it is a stupid sheet or a stupid formula is anyone's opinion I guess. If teams use the value chart, then it doesn't really matter if it's stupid or not.

I'm not saying teams won't be willing to trade down, I'm just saying they will be expecting just compensation to do so. Do they need Javon Walker, Travis Henry and Foxworth and our #12 and our second round pick to do that? Or do they just talk to another team that's offering something else?

Anything's possible -- but every year we get excited about trading all our rejects and moving up. With Detroit it apparently almost worked last year. But Detroit has a history of making suspicious personnel moves.

It's possible we could move up in the draft. It's possible.

But to give up lots of picks would be stupid to base your whole draft (5-7 rounders are TC fodder in most cases) on one DT shoulder who could lose knee on day one.. brownco Brown ring a bell here..

I'd rather get a coupe of choices and spread the risk around.. LB's are a dime a dozen, OL seems to be deep this year.. as does DT would I love to have THE BEST at it sure but not for giving away more than some of our rejects and our #12.

SmilinAssasSin27
02-11-2008, 05:59 PM
Teams use the chart. It's an easy way to tell other teams when they are being lowballed. I'm sure some don't always stick to it, but it's a fairly decent tool to use as a guideline.

mclark
02-11-2008, 06:29 PM
But to give up lots of picks would be stupid to base your whole draft (5-7 rounders are TC fodder in most cases) on one DT shoulder who could lose knee on day one.. brownco Brown ring a bell here..

I'd rather get a coupe of choices and spread the risk around.. LB's are a dime a dozen, OL seems to be deep this year.. as does DT would I love to have THE BEST at it sure but not for giving away more than some of our rejects and our #12.

I agree.

HORSEPOWER 56
02-12-2008, 03:06 PM
Seeing as how you can never really predict how a prospect will do in the pros and it still being pre-combine, at this point there is only one player I'd even consider trading up for - Sedrick Ellis. He was a man among boys at the senior bowl and even with the Dorseys and McFaddens out there he's the only guy that I'd give up players/picks/etc to get.

Make no mistake fellas, DT is our #1 NEED right now. Not RB. Not S. Not LB. Not even OT (although that looks to be our second biggest need right now) or WR if we lose Javon Walker.

Right now, the D-line needs a playmaker in the worst way at DT. Not another stop-gap veteran who is out of shape/unmotivated (Shawn Rodgers), or plays well in an already good defense but who knows if he'll really add anything to our D-line (Cory Williams), or is anxious to get a big payday in a contract year and played great but who knows if it will continue? (Albert Haynesworth).

As of now, we have ONE semi-starting caliber (I say "semi" because he was a rookie and who knows where he might peak) DT on the roster - Marcus Thomas. Everyone else is barely second string material (McKinley) and practice squad fodder at best (everyone else).

Champ and Lynch both spoke openly about it in post-season interviews.

This draft isn't only about "value". Just because we can get a top 3 RB at #12 doesn't mean we should take one there. The Broncos have the biggest hole I've ever seen as a Bronco fan at a single postion -DT. We must take the necessary steps to fill it with not only bodies, but playmakers. Waiting until the 4th round or later to address this gaping wound in the D-line will only postpone our playoff hopes another year.

For God's Sake, Shanny..do what must be done to fix the D-line once and for all...find a way to get Ellis and start building an elite :defense:!

SmilinAssasSin27
02-12-2008, 07:22 PM
Easier said than done. There are 2 DTs worth a first round pick and both are likely now top 5 material. Balmer has worlds of potential, but is still a project. I don't want a project at #12 and I don't wanna mortgage the future for a single player. Everyone here wanted to mortgage the future for WR Mike Williams of USC a few years back...how would that have worked out?