RunYouOver
12-15-2009, 07:05 PM
Updated for after Week 14 and now things are a little bit tighter. If we take care of business though, we WILL be fine. Starting next week, I’ll include all wild card scenarios, for now, we’re sticking to how we can win the division.
If the season ended TODAY (After Week 14):
AFC:
1. Indy (13-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (10-3, first in the AFC West)
3. Cincinnati (9-4, first in the AFC North)
4. New England (8-5, first in the AFC East)
5. Denver (8-5, higher seeded WC)
6. Jacksonville (7-6, lower seeded WC)
In the hunt:
7. Baltimore (7-6)
8. Miami (7-6)
9. NYJ (7-6)
Explanations:
--San Diego and Cincinnati will play this week. If Cincinnati wins, they would temporarily be the #2 seed. If San Diego wins, then there in perfect position to get a first round bye
--Jacksonville currently has the best conference record. The Jets are in the toughest spot, they have the tiebreaker over…nobody.
--The AFC East is REALLY close…don’t forget, we have the tiebreaker over New England. If you’re giving up hope on the division title, then you should root for New England to lose…if Miami wins the AFC East, we have the tiebreaker over New England and would be in good position to stay in the playoffs if we stay even with them. If you still think we can win the division, AND WE CAN, then root for New England to win so that we are guaranteed a higher seed than them.
NFC:
1. New Orleans (13-0)
2. Minnesota (11-2)
3. Philly (9-4)
4. Arizona (8-5)
5. Green Bay (9-4)
6. Dallas (8-5)
In the hunt:
7. New York (7-6)
Explanations:
Pretty much self-explanatory here, the NFC East is the only division still truly up for grabs…all the others are pretty much locked up. The Eagles are really hot right now though.
Post season match ups:
--Indy, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--JAX @ CIN, DEN@ NE, GB @ ARI, DAL @ PHI
--If we won, we would likely play Indy in round 2, in Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedules:
DEN: vs. OAK, @ PHI, vs. KC
SD: vs. CIN, @ TEN, vs. WAS
--We each have 2 home and 1 away games remaining
--Denver has two very winnable games, and one very difficult game remaining
--San Diego doesn’t have any no-brainer wins left, Washington won’t be a pushover, especially if it knows it could knock a team out of the playoffs. Cincy and @ TEN are both difficult.
--This Bengals-Chargers matchup is more important for the Bengals that the Chargers right now, and I expect to see the Bengals play that way…San Diego can afford to lose, Cincy absolutely cannot if it wants a bye.
--Oakland will surely play us as tough as possible, knowing it can really hurt our playoff chances if they win, this likely will NOT be an easy game.
--The Philly game was pushed back to 4:15, which will help us since it’s on the road. Those early east coast games are always more difficult for west coast teams, so we lucked out there. Still gonna be one hell of a challenging game though, the Eagles are playing very, very well right now.
--Comparing these schedules, it is very possible SD goes 1-2 and we go 3-0, although it is starting to appear less likely we can win the division. Winning out isn’t our only shot, but it’s the only realistic shot.
What if scenarios:
If Denver wins out and SD loses to Cincy and Ten:
We would win because of CONFERENCE record, where SD would be 7-5 and we would be 8-4. Common opponents and division record would be tied, so conference record would be the next tiebreaker.
If Denver wins out and SD loses to Cincy and WAS:
In this scenario, we would win the division because of common opponents, where we would be 5-3 and SD would be 4-4. Just goes to show you how losing to Washington really, really, really killed us. Had we beaten them, we would be in a MUCH better position right now.
If Denver wins out and SD loses to TEN and WAS:
Well, in this scenario, records are tied, division record is tie, and common opponents are tied at 5-3. Conference record would also be tied at 8-4, so it would come down to strength of victory. Our current strength of victory is 51-53 for a .490% San Diego’s is 55-75 for a .423, so we would win
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses out
In this scenario, both teams finish 10-6, with a tied division record and an equal common opponents record (4-4). However, our conference record of 8-4 would beat San Diego’s 7-5, so we would win the division.
If Denver loses to Oakland or KC, but not Philadelphia, and SD loses out:
San Diego would have a better divisional record (5-1 to 4-2) and would win the division.
If Denver wins 1 game and ties 2, and San Diego loses 2 out of three games:
In this very likely scenario, we would be 9-5-2 and San Diego would be 11-5. There winning % would be better and so they would win
If we win 2 games and tie one, and San Diego loses out:
We would be 10-5-1, and San Diego would be 10-6, so we would win the division.
Key things to keep in mind in case of any ties:
--We have the tie breaker over Cincy and New England
--Baltimore and Pittsburgh have tiebreakers over us, but at this point, it seems that Pittsburgh shouldn’t catch us. Ideally, Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and that would hurt Baltimore’s chances of catching us as well. Baltimore plays Chicago this week, so the result is win-win for us. A Baltimore win and our draft pick continues to improve for next year, and a Chicago win and we can probably stop worrying about Baltimore.
A wild card scenario that everyone wants to know about
--Just a brief what-if that everyone is concerned about in terms of the wildcard situation. Next week I’ll go completely in-depth with this, but for now, enjoy this really, really complicated process of a 5 way tie for 10-6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots. AKA, the "worst-possible 10-6 scenario where we did all we could"
If we lose to Philly and win our other two games, finishing 10-6:
Eliminate the Jets, we would have a better conference record.
If the Pats beat the Jaguars, then they are eliminated.
BUT, If the Jags beat the Pats though, and New England and Miami both finish 10-6, then it gets really complicated. Division records and head to heads would be split, and going by their common opponents, Miami is currently 3-3 with 1 game to play, at Houston, and New England is 4-1, with 2 games to play…so if they wind up tied, that means New England wins the division, and we’d be matched up against a Miami team that is also 10-6 with an 8-4 AFC record.
And add Jax to that 10-6 mess, in that case.
And add Baltimore in there.
In this scenario now, you have one team from EVERY division at 10-6, looking for 2 wild card spots. (After the Jets are eliminated at step 1 because Miami has that tiebreaker, and after that, we do, so no sense in worrying).
Step 2 asks for one team with a sweep over the other 3…which didn’t happen.
Step 3 asks for the teams with the best conference records to advance: Jacksonville is the only 9-3, so they would get the #5 seed, and the #6 seed is between Baltimore, Denver and Miami.
Repeat the process for the 6th seed, and initially at least, we can be thankful Miami didn’t lose to Baltimore and we’ll advance to step 4 as all teams would have an 8-4 conference record.
Step 4 is the common games tiebreaker, with a minimum of 4 between the three teams. We’ve all played New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh and Indy, so this will work.
We beat New England, 1-1 against san diego, and then lost to Pittsburgh and indy for a record of 2-3. Miami is 1-1 against new England, lost to indy, beat Pittsburgh (If they win out to go 10-6, that means they’ll beat Pitt week 17), and lost to San Diego for a record of 2-3, and Baltimore beat san diego, will have beaten Pittsburgh twice, lost to Indy and lost to New England for a record of 3-2, giving Baltimore the #6 seed.
Our strength of victory gives us the #7 seed over Miami, which is useless.
So, what you need to know here: Jacksonville needs to lose one more game, which is likely as they play indy then AT Jacksonville. Baltimore needs to lose one more game, which is certainly possible against a pissed off Pittsburgh team, and Miami and the Jets can win out and it doesn’t really affect us.
There are plenty of ways we can make the playoffs at 9-7…but that’s another hours worth of work that is pointless to do right now and much more applicable next week, so that’s when it’ll get done.
In terms of our current draft position: The Bears currently have what would be the 9th pick in the draft, and depending on how things go, that can move all the way up to most likely the highest being 5th, and the lowest being around 18th or so. If it stays where it is though and we get a top 10 draft pick, then DAMN, that worked out well.
WHO TO ROOT FOR THIS WEEK:
Forgot to put this in originally, so, if you're wondering who to root for:
Denver, Indy, Chicago OR Baltimore (depending on your preference, confidence), Buffalo (I'll explain), Tennessee, Atlanta, CINCINNATI, and Green Bay.
In this order:
1) Denver--A very big win, will at the least guarantee a winning season, and give us, in my estimation, at the least a 30% chance at the playoffs if we lost our last two games.
2)Cincinnati--If we want to win this division and get a first round bye, Cincy needs to win this game (and then lose one of their last two, while we win out, and SD loses one more). It's a lot to ask for, but CERTAINLY not impossible.
3)Indianapolis--Reading through this thread, you'll see Jacksonville would have the top seed among 10-6ers if we all finish 10-6, so we need Jax to lose, then they can be no better than 9-7, with a conference record no better than 8-4. It should be noted though, that if we were to wind up tied 9-7 with them, that their 8-4 record would beat our 7-5...but still, we need Jacksonville to lose.
4a)Chicago--This all depends on how confident you are in our team...if we win out, then it will be better that Baltimore wins this game, but if you want to feel safe and screw the draft for now, DEFINITELY be rooting for Chicago this game. Baltimore owns any tiebreaker over us, so a Baltimore loss this week puts us in a much better position.
4b) Tennessee--If you are confident that we will win out, or that Baltimore won't beat Pittsburgh, then the 4th most important team is Tennessee, beating Miami, which knocks them out of the potential 10-6 teams and into the 9-7s.
5)Atlanta--If the Jets win out, they're 10-6. They don't have a tiebreak over us, but it would suck to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs because the JETS were 10-6.
6)Green Bay--A win over Pittsburgh all but guarantees we finish in front of them.
7)Buffalo--The only way Miami can win the division if they and New England are tied is if NE loses this game. We have the tiebreaker over New England, and even though we'd probably have it over Miami too, we'd 100% have it over New England.
8)Baltimore--For those of you who were confident we would win out, then you are rooting for Baltimore this week to beat Chicago and improve our odds of a top 10 draft pick.
And that’s all for this week, check back next week because I assure you, it will get crazy.
If the season ended TODAY (After Week 14):
AFC:
1. Indy (13-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (10-3, first in the AFC West)
3. Cincinnati (9-4, first in the AFC North)
4. New England (8-5, first in the AFC East)
5. Denver (8-5, higher seeded WC)
6. Jacksonville (7-6, lower seeded WC)
In the hunt:
7. Baltimore (7-6)
8. Miami (7-6)
9. NYJ (7-6)
Explanations:
--San Diego and Cincinnati will play this week. If Cincinnati wins, they would temporarily be the #2 seed. If San Diego wins, then there in perfect position to get a first round bye
--Jacksonville currently has the best conference record. The Jets are in the toughest spot, they have the tiebreaker over…nobody.
--The AFC East is REALLY close…don’t forget, we have the tiebreaker over New England. If you’re giving up hope on the division title, then you should root for New England to lose…if Miami wins the AFC East, we have the tiebreaker over New England and would be in good position to stay in the playoffs if we stay even with them. If you still think we can win the division, AND WE CAN, then root for New England to win so that we are guaranteed a higher seed than them.
NFC:
1. New Orleans (13-0)
2. Minnesota (11-2)
3. Philly (9-4)
4. Arizona (8-5)
5. Green Bay (9-4)
6. Dallas (8-5)
In the hunt:
7. New York (7-6)
Explanations:
Pretty much self-explanatory here, the NFC East is the only division still truly up for grabs…all the others are pretty much locked up. The Eagles are really hot right now though.
Post season match ups:
--Indy, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--JAX @ CIN, DEN@ NE, GB @ ARI, DAL @ PHI
--If we won, we would likely play Indy in round 2, in Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedules:
DEN: vs. OAK, @ PHI, vs. KC
SD: vs. CIN, @ TEN, vs. WAS
--We each have 2 home and 1 away games remaining
--Denver has two very winnable games, and one very difficult game remaining
--San Diego doesn’t have any no-brainer wins left, Washington won’t be a pushover, especially if it knows it could knock a team out of the playoffs. Cincy and @ TEN are both difficult.
--This Bengals-Chargers matchup is more important for the Bengals that the Chargers right now, and I expect to see the Bengals play that way…San Diego can afford to lose, Cincy absolutely cannot if it wants a bye.
--Oakland will surely play us as tough as possible, knowing it can really hurt our playoff chances if they win, this likely will NOT be an easy game.
--The Philly game was pushed back to 4:15, which will help us since it’s on the road. Those early east coast games are always more difficult for west coast teams, so we lucked out there. Still gonna be one hell of a challenging game though, the Eagles are playing very, very well right now.
--Comparing these schedules, it is very possible SD goes 1-2 and we go 3-0, although it is starting to appear less likely we can win the division. Winning out isn’t our only shot, but it’s the only realistic shot.
What if scenarios:
If Denver wins out and SD loses to Cincy and Ten:
We would win because of CONFERENCE record, where SD would be 7-5 and we would be 8-4. Common opponents and division record would be tied, so conference record would be the next tiebreaker.
If Denver wins out and SD loses to Cincy and WAS:
In this scenario, we would win the division because of common opponents, where we would be 5-3 and SD would be 4-4. Just goes to show you how losing to Washington really, really, really killed us. Had we beaten them, we would be in a MUCH better position right now.
If Denver wins out and SD loses to TEN and WAS:
Well, in this scenario, records are tied, division record is tie, and common opponents are tied at 5-3. Conference record would also be tied at 8-4, so it would come down to strength of victory. Our current strength of victory is 51-53 for a .490% San Diego’s is 55-75 for a .423, so we would win
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses out
In this scenario, both teams finish 10-6, with a tied division record and an equal common opponents record (4-4). However, our conference record of 8-4 would beat San Diego’s 7-5, so we would win the division.
If Denver loses to Oakland or KC, but not Philadelphia, and SD loses out:
San Diego would have a better divisional record (5-1 to 4-2) and would win the division.
If Denver wins 1 game and ties 2, and San Diego loses 2 out of three games:
In this very likely scenario, we would be 9-5-2 and San Diego would be 11-5. There winning % would be better and so they would win
If we win 2 games and tie one, and San Diego loses out:
We would be 10-5-1, and San Diego would be 10-6, so we would win the division.
Key things to keep in mind in case of any ties:
--We have the tie breaker over Cincy and New England
--Baltimore and Pittsburgh have tiebreakers over us, but at this point, it seems that Pittsburgh shouldn’t catch us. Ideally, Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and that would hurt Baltimore’s chances of catching us as well. Baltimore plays Chicago this week, so the result is win-win for us. A Baltimore win and our draft pick continues to improve for next year, and a Chicago win and we can probably stop worrying about Baltimore.
A wild card scenario that everyone wants to know about
--Just a brief what-if that everyone is concerned about in terms of the wildcard situation. Next week I’ll go completely in-depth with this, but for now, enjoy this really, really complicated process of a 5 way tie for 10-6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots. AKA, the "worst-possible 10-6 scenario where we did all we could"
If we lose to Philly and win our other two games, finishing 10-6:
Eliminate the Jets, we would have a better conference record.
If the Pats beat the Jaguars, then they are eliminated.
BUT, If the Jags beat the Pats though, and New England and Miami both finish 10-6, then it gets really complicated. Division records and head to heads would be split, and going by their common opponents, Miami is currently 3-3 with 1 game to play, at Houston, and New England is 4-1, with 2 games to play…so if they wind up tied, that means New England wins the division, and we’d be matched up against a Miami team that is also 10-6 with an 8-4 AFC record.
And add Jax to that 10-6 mess, in that case.
And add Baltimore in there.
In this scenario now, you have one team from EVERY division at 10-6, looking for 2 wild card spots. (After the Jets are eliminated at step 1 because Miami has that tiebreaker, and after that, we do, so no sense in worrying).
Step 2 asks for one team with a sweep over the other 3…which didn’t happen.
Step 3 asks for the teams with the best conference records to advance: Jacksonville is the only 9-3, so they would get the #5 seed, and the #6 seed is between Baltimore, Denver and Miami.
Repeat the process for the 6th seed, and initially at least, we can be thankful Miami didn’t lose to Baltimore and we’ll advance to step 4 as all teams would have an 8-4 conference record.
Step 4 is the common games tiebreaker, with a minimum of 4 between the three teams. We’ve all played New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh and Indy, so this will work.
We beat New England, 1-1 against san diego, and then lost to Pittsburgh and indy for a record of 2-3. Miami is 1-1 against new England, lost to indy, beat Pittsburgh (If they win out to go 10-6, that means they’ll beat Pitt week 17), and lost to San Diego for a record of 2-3, and Baltimore beat san diego, will have beaten Pittsburgh twice, lost to Indy and lost to New England for a record of 3-2, giving Baltimore the #6 seed.
Our strength of victory gives us the #7 seed over Miami, which is useless.
So, what you need to know here: Jacksonville needs to lose one more game, which is likely as they play indy then AT Jacksonville. Baltimore needs to lose one more game, which is certainly possible against a pissed off Pittsburgh team, and Miami and the Jets can win out and it doesn’t really affect us.
There are plenty of ways we can make the playoffs at 9-7…but that’s another hours worth of work that is pointless to do right now and much more applicable next week, so that’s when it’ll get done.
In terms of our current draft position: The Bears currently have what would be the 9th pick in the draft, and depending on how things go, that can move all the way up to most likely the highest being 5th, and the lowest being around 18th or so. If it stays where it is though and we get a top 10 draft pick, then DAMN, that worked out well.
WHO TO ROOT FOR THIS WEEK:
Forgot to put this in originally, so, if you're wondering who to root for:
Denver, Indy, Chicago OR Baltimore (depending on your preference, confidence), Buffalo (I'll explain), Tennessee, Atlanta, CINCINNATI, and Green Bay.
In this order:
1) Denver--A very big win, will at the least guarantee a winning season, and give us, in my estimation, at the least a 30% chance at the playoffs if we lost our last two games.
2)Cincinnati--If we want to win this division and get a first round bye, Cincy needs to win this game (and then lose one of their last two, while we win out, and SD loses one more). It's a lot to ask for, but CERTAINLY not impossible.
3)Indianapolis--Reading through this thread, you'll see Jacksonville would have the top seed among 10-6ers if we all finish 10-6, so we need Jax to lose, then they can be no better than 9-7, with a conference record no better than 8-4. It should be noted though, that if we were to wind up tied 9-7 with them, that their 8-4 record would beat our 7-5...but still, we need Jacksonville to lose.
4a)Chicago--This all depends on how confident you are in our team...if we win out, then it will be better that Baltimore wins this game, but if you want to feel safe and screw the draft for now, DEFINITELY be rooting for Chicago this game. Baltimore owns any tiebreaker over us, so a Baltimore loss this week puts us in a much better position.
4b) Tennessee--If you are confident that we will win out, or that Baltimore won't beat Pittsburgh, then the 4th most important team is Tennessee, beating Miami, which knocks them out of the potential 10-6 teams and into the 9-7s.
5)Atlanta--If the Jets win out, they're 10-6. They don't have a tiebreak over us, but it would suck to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs because the JETS were 10-6.
6)Green Bay--A win over Pittsburgh all but guarantees we finish in front of them.
7)Buffalo--The only way Miami can win the division if they and New England are tied is if NE loses this game. We have the tiebreaker over New England, and even though we'd probably have it over Miami too, we'd 100% have it over New England.
8)Baltimore--For those of you who were confident we would win out, then you are rooting for Baltimore this week to beat Chicago and improve our odds of a top 10 draft pick.
And that’s all for this week, check back next week because I assure you, it will get crazy.