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Lonestar
12-15-2009, 12:53 AM
Krieger:
By Dave Krieger
Denver Post Columnist
Posted: 12/14/2009 01:00:00 AM MST
Updated: 12/14/2009 01:23:45 AM MST


INDIANAPOLIS — Give Josh McDaniels this. He is nothing if not innovative.

Convinced that trying to start fast against the Colts hadn't worked for anybody else, he brought a different strategy to Indy on Sunday:

Start slow.

I am not making this up.

"Everybody talks about, 'You've got to start fast and get ahead.' I don't really believe that because that hasn't worked for anybody all year," McDaniels said after the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning interceptions to improve to 13-0 and set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory.

So, when the Broncos won the opening coin toss, McDaniels elected to kick off, deferring to the second half the Broncos' opportunity to take the ball.

"I wanted to maybe take a shot at scoring right before the half and then getting the ball back in the third quarter, and if you get a 10-, 14-point swing in that situation, you put yourself in a good spot and their offense hadn't played football if you could do that," he explained afterward.

Unfortunately, the Colts adopted the opposite strategy.

"We got off to a fast start like we wanted to," said their coach, Jim Caldwell.

"My points of emphasis were obviously to get off to a good start," Manning said.

In fact, the Broncos had run only three plays from scrimmage when the Colts went ahead 14-0, so both game plans were right on target.

"It was a huge way to start," said the Colts' Dallas Clark. "I think that really put them in a chase mode and got them out of their offense early."

McDaniels' pretzel logic was twisted beyond recognition when he got exactly the opportunity he wanted near the end of the first half. The Broncos had scored on their previous possession to cut the Colts' lead to 21-7.

Had they put together an effective two-minute drill resulting in a touchdown, they would have been back in it, down by a single score with another possession coming to start the third quarter. In other words, precisely the scenario McDaniels envisioned.

But instead of an aggressive two- minute drill with 1:41 showing, McDaniels called a running play, a screen pass, another running play and, on fourth-and-1, another running play. The third- and fourth- down runs were both stuffed, and the Broncos turned it over on downs. Why not run a two-minute drill in that situation?

"The first thing is, you don't give the ball back to him," McDaniels said, referring to Manning. "If you do, it's one of the silliest mistakes you make. So if you start by throwing two incomplete passes and give him two minutes on the clock, you've made an error."

So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make.

In fairness to McDaniels, he's not the first coach Manning has driven to distraction. His mentor, Bill Belichick, famously went for it on fourth down from his own 28 because he didn't want to give the ball back to Manning. When the Patriots failed to convert, he gave Manning the ball back with a short field and lost the game.

In McDaniels' case, the whole point of giving Manning the ball to start the game was to set up the scenario he got just before halftime. Then he decided not to make aggressive use of it because he was afraid of giving the ball to Manning.

Explaining his decision, McDan- iels mentioned he had won the toss and deferred previously this season "for the same reason." The only previous instance I recall was at Oakland, which was a radically different situation.

The Raiders featured the worst starting quarterback in the NFL at the time in JaMarcus Russell. Giving them the ball pretty much assured you better field position when you got it back than you would have had taking the opening kickoff.

Giving the ball to Peyton Manning is about as different a decision as it could possibly be. And it demonstrates how Manning can short- circuit the logic of even the most confident coaches.

McDaniels actually convinced himself that trying to start fast hadn't worked for other clubs, so he would go a different direction. Now we know how that worked.

McDaniels said afterward he wouldn't change the decision. The loss, of course, was all about poor execution, too many mistakes, by the players.

But the truth is their coach didn't help them. On a day when Manning threw three picks, the Broncos made it easy for him. They beat themselves.

Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297 or dkrieger@denverpost.com or twitter.com/DaveKrieger

Manning was missing

After jumping out to a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, through their first possession of the fourth Sunday, Colts QB Peyton Manning all but disappeared against Denver, going 3-for-15 for 21 yards and three interceptions. A lookat those possessions:

Second

Start Cm Att Yds Result


IND 19 1 3 6 Punt
IND 46 1 2 4 Int.


Third

IND 19 0 2 0 Punt
IND 11 1 2 11 Int.
IND 14 0 2 0 Punt
IND 32 0 1 0 Int.


Fourth

IND 20 0 3 0 Punt

http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_13991252

jhildebrand
12-15-2009, 12:55 AM
the 4-2 defense was a nightmare. Why not simply line up your 3-4 which has helped get you to this point and Peyton struggles with and see what happens. :confused:

The entire Indy game was a complete debacle!

shank
12-15-2009, 01:06 AM
it sucks, but i actually think that nolan outsmarted himself with a new look. why do something new when what you've been doing has been working fairly well?

can't criticize the guy too much though... he's a huge part of the reason we're looking towards the playoffs. but i do think it was a mistake (one that his defense clearly did everything they possibly could to make up for IMO).


also, again... DEFERRING THE OPENING KICKOFF HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH US LOSING THE GAME.

Ravage!!!
12-15-2009, 01:16 AM
"...So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make..."

This line made me chuckle.

shank
12-15-2009, 03:13 AM
"...So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make..."

This line made me chuckle.

i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden ;))

broncofaninfla
12-15-2009, 08:46 AM
Our defense gave our offense several opportunties to get back into this game but the offense failed to deliver. Mcd was outcoached yet again and our short yardage running game continues to be among the worst in the league. Turning the ball over on downs and failing to convert KILLED us. I pin both on Mcd.....

claymore
12-15-2009, 08:48 AM
Im still waiting to see the offensive genius part.

MHCBill
12-15-2009, 08:57 AM
i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden ;))
100% agree and I have thought this way for a very, very long time. I would always want the ball to begin the second half for precisely the reasons you stated above. Games are won and loss in the SECOND HALF, not on the first possesion of the game.

claymore
12-15-2009, 09:00 AM
We cant score on our opening drive anyway.

http://www.slashfilm.com/wp/wp-content/images/baghead.jpg

NightTrainLayne
12-15-2009, 09:55 AM
I think it was the smart idea. Problem is, our offense just wasn't able to execute.

If we get a first down or two at the end of the half, McD can open it up a little more and maybe at least get a FG before half. The refs didn't help out there either. . .1st two plays of that last drive and I think we had 25 yards of penalties. :tsk:

Then, receiving the kick in the 2nd helps with momentum. . .but again we went three and out.

We've just got to execute better on our offensive drives.

claymore
12-15-2009, 10:09 AM
I think it was the smart idea. Problem is, our offense just wasn't able to execute.

If we get a first down or two at the end of the half, McD can open it up a little more and maybe at least get a FG before half. The refs didn't help out there either. . .1st two plays of that last drive and I think we had 25 yards of penalties. :tsk:

Then, receiving the kick in the 2nd helps with momentum. . .but again we went three and out.

We've just got to execute better on our offensive drives.

Ive never seen such a predictable offense. Ever.

Mike
12-15-2009, 10:20 AM
Ive never seen such a predictable offense. Ever.

You must not have been watching the Broncos the last 6 years.

claymore
12-15-2009, 10:29 AM
You must not have been watching the Broncos the last 6 years.
I guess you are right. This offense defies all logic.

Dortoh
12-15-2009, 10:49 AM
I'm sorry but anyone who pins this loss on Nolan and the defense then well um never mind.

http://www.jamesharrisgallery.com/Artists/Mark%20Mumford/NothingLeftToSay.jpg

Ravage!!!
12-15-2009, 10:57 AM
i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden ;))

Every point you are making can be countered by a point by putting the ball into your SCORING team's hands. So what you are saying that at the coin flip, teams should ALWAYS choose to kick?

Doesn't scoring on the opening drive set the pace? For if the team doesn't score in return, and you get the ball back.. you can be two scores UP (or in the case of the Indy Colts, THREE) before the other team puts any points on the board. Scoring on the openind drive IMMEDIATELY puts the other team in 'catch up' mode. Doesn't yet mean you force them to pass on every down, but then being 14 points down early puts pressure on your offense. Getting down 21 points (especially for our offfense)... is a game killer.

shank
12-15-2009, 11:03 AM
Every point you are making can be countered by a point by putting the ball into your SCORING team's hands. So what you are saying that at the coin flip, teams should ALWAYS choose to kick?

Doesn't scoring on the opening drive set the pace? For if the team doesn't score in return, and you get the ball back.. you can be two scores UP (or in the case of the Indy Colts, THREE) before the other team puts any points on the board. Scoring on the openind drive IMMEDIATELY puts the other team in 'catch up' mode. Doesn't yet mean you force them to pass on every down, but then being 14 points down early puts pressure on your offense. Getting down 21 points (especially for our offfense)... is a game killer.

i honestly do believe that teams should always elect to kick. if there's ever a time when the two teams are at an even-footing, it's their first drives of the game.

both teams are running based on their gameplans and film. each teams first drive of the game will be influenced by nothing else, regardless. if the broncos would have received the opening kick yesterday, you can't tell me that we would have scored. we would have run the same plays, and gone three and out, because taht was the gameplan. same with the colts. same plays, same result.

after the second half, you have new tendencies to account for and adjustments to make, so receiving that 2nd kickoff is much more important.

scoring on the opening drive does set the pace, but it won't change anything (or at least it shouldn't). every coaches goal on their first drive is to score points, and there is absolutely no desperation, even if down by 7 because of how much time is left, meaning their 1st drive of the game shouldn't be at all dependent on who receives the ball first.

Ravage!!!
12-15-2009, 11:32 AM
scoring on the opening drive does set the pace, but it won't change anything (or at least it shouldn't). every coaches goal on their first drive is to score points, and there is absolutely no desperation, even if down by 7 because of how much time is left, meaning their 1st drive of the game shouldn't be at all dependent on who receives the ball first.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I don't see any more value in wht you are saying over putting the ball in your score maker's hands. I want the ball for a couple reasons. Not only does it put the ball in the best athletes hands immediately, but it gives me the chance to be AHEAD right from the get-go. THat CAN absolutely change the game. Especially if your team then holds the other team to a punt on their opening drive.

I want my team up. I want to score immediately and put the other team behind. That DOES catch up to a team if they don't match. Is it a game breaker... possibly. Seems we won a lot of games by getting up in the first drive and then being able to control the game with the run.

I would rather go into the half up by points than down. If you are saying getting the ball in the second half give you an extra possession in the second half, then receiving the ball in the first gives you the extra possession and the extra chance to be up in points at halftime.

Dortoh
12-15-2009, 11:35 AM
I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I don't see any more value in wht you are saying over putting the ball in your score maker's hands. I want the ball for a couple reasons. Not only does it put the ball in the best athletes hands immediately, but it gives me the chance to be AHEAD right from the get-go. THat CAN absolutely change the game. Especially if your team then holds the other team to a punt on their opening drive.

I want my team up. I want to score immediately and put the other team behind. That DOES catch up to a team if they don't match. Is it a game breaker... possibly. Seems we won a lot of games by getting up in the first drive and then being able to control the game with the run.

I would rather go into the half up by points than down. If you are saying getting the ball in the second half give you an extra possession in the second half, then receiving the ball in the first gives you the extra possession and the extra chance to be up in points at halftime.

Orton and our offense has started slowly all year. History and trends back up McD's idea to kick IMHO

Ravage!!!
12-15-2009, 11:45 AM
Orton and our offense has started slowly all year. History and trends back up McD's idea to kick IMHO

But isn't this the onlly time McD has chosen to kick??? Or are you saying that the choice to kick this time fit because of the history of our team for the last 13 games?

The best players on our team are on offense. But then, our defense has been out-performing our defense by a ton.

I was speaking in generalities. I don't care that we chose to kick, but I don't support the idea that its always the best idea to kick on the opening KO.

Dortoh
12-15-2009, 11:51 AM
But isn't this the onlly time McD has chosen to kick??? Or are you saying that the choice to kick this time fit because of the history of our team for the last 13 games?

The best players on our team are on offense. But then, our defense has been out-performing our defense by a ton.

I was speaking in generalities. I don't care that we chose to kick, but I don't support the idea that its always the best idea to kick on the opening KO.

Pretty much agree I dont think kicking to start the game is all that great of an idea but can see Shank and coach McD's reasoning in this particular case.

shank
12-15-2009, 12:11 PM
But isn't this the onlly time McD has chosen to kick??? Or are you saying that the choice to kick this time fit because of the history of our team for the last 13 games?

The best players on our team are on offense. But then, our defense has been out-performing our defense by a ton.

I was speaking in generalities. I don't care that we chose to kick, but I don't support the idea that its always the best idea to kick on the opening KO.

he said in his press conference that he has deferred before and will do it again.

i also don't necessarily agree that your best athletes are on offense...


but i do see how getting the first score is important. i also see though, that games in the NFL are rarely won in the first half of play, so if i can get the first chance to catch up or put them away in the 2nd half, i'm personally taking it every time.

also, nothing is guaranteed. just cause you get the ball first doesn't mean you're going to score first. take the colts game, for example: do you honestly think that if we had elected to receive the opening kick, that our offense would have done anything different on the first drive? because i firmly believe that nothing would have changed, we would have gone three and out, peyton still would have scored on his first drive, and then to top it all off, we would have had to give them the ball back to start the 3rd quarter... people are trying to villainize McD for making that decision, i think things would have been worse had he gone the other direction...

apart from that; like you said, agree to disagree.

NightTrainLayne
12-15-2009, 12:50 PM
If I were a head coach I would defer every time I won the toss, unless wind was a factor.

Especially if you have a defense that you trust. If you can stop the other team on their first possession, you are likely to have a field-position advantage for your first drive. I.E. receiving a punt at say the 35 yard line vs. a kick-off at the 20-25.

Now, if you let them drive it on you, you lose that advantage, but you do know that you are getting the ball to start the second-half, and smart clock management to end the first half can give you a huge advantage going into the third quarter, either by scoring near the end of the half or just running the clock out. But either way, you can keep their offense off the field for a decent amount of time between the end of the 2nd, and the first drive of the 3rd if you are able to manage the clock well, and your offense is executing.

Requiem / The Dagda
12-15-2009, 12:52 PM
I always liked the defer option.

56crash
12-15-2009, 12:53 PM
dont forget weather and temps..

shank
12-15-2009, 12:55 PM
good point NTL, i forgot about wind. if it's enough of a factor, i'd rather have it behind my back in the 4th quarter.

NightTrainLayne
12-15-2009, 12:58 PM
good point NTL, i forgot about wind. if it's enough of a factor, i'd rather have it behind my back in the 4th quarter.

I'd rather have it at my back to start the game. You never know if the wind will be doing the same thing in the fourth that it is in the 1st. If wind is a factor I will take the wind to start the game.

Unless you know that sometime during the game a front is going to move in. . .but I wouldn't gamble much on the wind. If it's a factor, take it at the start of the game.

shank
12-15-2009, 01:03 PM
I'd rather have it at my back to start the game. You never know if the wind will be doing the same thing in the fourth that it is in the 1st. If wind is a factor I will take the wind to start the game.

Unless you know that sometime during the game a front is going to move in. . .but I wouldn't gamble much on the wind. If it's a factor, take it at the start of the game.

On Madden (i know i know... probably not a great reference point) teams switch sides after the 1st and 3rd quarters; meaning that whatever wind direction you have to start the game, you also finish the game going the same direction. there were times when i thought that teams switched sides after the 1st and 3rd quarters, but i don't think madden ever changed.

if madden isn't wrong about this, the wind direction at the beginning of the game will also be with you at the end of the game. so if that's true, we both win NTL.

jhildebrand
12-15-2009, 01:05 PM
Ive never seen such a predictable offense. Ever.

Somewhere right now Knowshon is running it up the middle with 9 men in the box. :tsk:

jhildebrand
12-15-2009, 01:10 PM
There have been some comments from B Marsh that he knew he was going to have a big day. In fact he referenced the fact that the game plan was to get the ball to him often probably due to the Colts small, beat up secondary. If that is the case, why not take the ball? Why not have enough faith in that game plan and try to get 7 on Manning right away?

NightTrainLayne
12-15-2009, 01:25 PM
On Madden (i know i know... probably not a great reference point) teams switch sides after the 1st and 3rd quarters; meaning that whatever wind direction you have to start the game, you also finish the game going the same direction. there were times when i thought that teams switched sides after the 1st and 3rd quarters, but i don't think madden ever changed.

if madden isn't wrong about this, the wind direction at the beginning of the game will also be with you at the end of the game. so if that's true, we both win NTL.

Sometimes I have to question my fanhood when such a simple question comes up. Television coverage doesn't help much either. Right now I'm not sure if they change every quarter, or just after the 1st and 3rd. My first answer would have been that they change at every quarter, but you've got me thinking now.

TXBRONC
12-15-2009, 01:25 PM
it sucks, but i actually think that nolan outsmarted himself with a new look. why do something new when what you've been doing has been working fairly well?

can't criticize the guy too much though... he's a huge part of the reason we're looking towards the playoffs. but i do think it was a mistake (one that his defense clearly did everything they possibly could to make up for IMO).


also, again... DEFERRING THE OPENING KICKOFF HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH US LOSING THE GAME.

I don't know Shaw other than the first quarter it worked fairly well. If the offense had been able to generate some points maybe the final score ends up in our favor.

Lonestar
12-15-2009, 02:49 PM
have not really read many posts here.. so if I say something that has been said before.. sorry


but perhaps Josh thought his D was up to the task of stopping Manning.. and thought they would do a 3 and out thereby placing them in a hole so to speak..

it seemed not to work..

but somewhere the D started to work to bad it was not in the first Quarter..

could have been an ugly loss for IND if it had..

Dean
12-15-2009, 03:03 PM
have not really read many posts here.. so if I say something that has been said before.. sorry


but perhaps Josh thought his D was up to the task of stopping Manning.. and thought they would do a 3 and out thereby placing them in a hole so to speak..

it seemed not to work..

but somewhere the D started to work to bad it was not in the first Quarter..

could have been an ugly loss for IND if it had..

I realize that the NFL is a whole different game than it is at the high school level. However, when we win the flip the decision of whether to kick or recieve depends upon where we feel our strength is. If we feel our D will stop the opponent we defer.

The thinking is that we believe that we will have good field position and the ball the second half.

If we feel our offense is stronger than their defense we want the ball to score or to drive far enough to place them in poor field position.

TXBRONC
12-15-2009, 03:12 PM
The fact that Denver defered to the second half didn't bother me no do I think it played that big of a role in Denver losing the game. Denver blew several scoring opportunities and you just can do that against good football teams and expect to win.

claymore
12-15-2009, 03:21 PM
The fact that Denver defered to the second half didn't bother me no do I think it played that big of a role in Denver losing the game. Denver blew several scoring opportunities and you just can do that against good football teams and expect to win.

Yup, Deferring doesnt lose games, scoring less points than the other team does. :D

Dortoh
12-15-2009, 03:40 PM
Yup, Deferring doesnt lose games, scoring less points than the other team does. :D

Do you have a link or are you just pulling shit out of your ass again Clay?

claymore
12-15-2009, 03:49 PM
Do you have a link or are you just pulling shit out of your ass again Clay?

It was just a shot in the dark!

NameUsedBefore
12-15-2009, 03:59 PM
"Just like we drew it up." McDaniels, entering the third quarter down 21.

Lonestar
12-15-2009, 04:39 PM
It was just a shot in the dark!

ok I'll bite,

dark of what?

claymore
12-15-2009, 04:41 PM
Yup, Deferring doesnt lose games, scoring less points than the other team does. :D


ok I'll bite,

dark of what?

The statement that whichever team scores the most points win. :noidea: