JDL
12-14-2009, 01:14 AM
NOTES: The following is based on the most likely scenario - Denver finishing 10-6 beating KC/OAK. (if they do not beat KC/OAK, most scenarios see them outside the playoffs, so they must win those two home games.) Additionally, all opponents have 7 wins, so, we can count their remaining games as wins. Two wildcard spots available.
Tiebreakers Versus Non-Division Opponents
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-6)
Remaining: IND/NE/CLE
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 9-3 (JAX) v. 8-4 (DEN)
Result: Jacksonville wins tie as to finish 10-6 they must win out and thus finish 9-3 in conference, while the best Denver can do is 8-4.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-6)
Remaining: CHI/PIT/OAK
1. H2H: BALTIMORE WON
Result: Baltimore wins tie as they beat Denver.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-6)
Remaining: TEN/HOU/PIT
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 8-4 (MIA) v. 8-4 (DEN)
3. COMMON: 2-2 (MIA) v. 2-2 (DEN)
4. STR VICT: 58 OPP. WINS (MIA) v. 56 OPP. WINS (DEN)
5. SOS: .543(MIA) v. .514 (DEN)
Result: Miami wins tie, unless teams Denver has beaten win 3 more than Miami's defeated-opponent's win.
NEW YORK JETS (7-6)
Remaining: IND/NE/CLE
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 7-5 (NYJ) v. 8-4 (DEN)
Result: Denver wins tie based on conference record tiebreaker.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-5)
Remaining: BUF/JAX/HOU
1. H2H: Denver
Result: If Miami overcomes New England for the division lead, then New England falls into wildcard pool and loses
THREE-WAY TIEBREAKER
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.
DEN/JAX/BAL
1. Non-Division Tie
2. N/A (Denver and JAX have not played)
3. JAX (9-3) v. BAL (8-4) v. DEN (8-4)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/MIA
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. MIA (8-4) v. DEN (8-4)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/NYJ
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. DEN (8-4) v. NYJ (7-5)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/NE
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. DEN (8-4) v. NE (7-5) [NE would have to lose to JAX in this scneario and add one conference loss]
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/BAL/MIA
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (Denver and Miami have not played)
3. DEN (8-4) v. MIA (8-4) v. BAL (8-4)
4. BAL (3-2) v. DEN (2-3) v. MIA (2-3)
Result: Baltimore wins based on common opponents (SD, IND, PIT, NE)
DEN/BAL/NYJ
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (Denver and NYJ have not played)
3. DEN (8-4) v. BAL (8-4) v. NYJ (7-5)
New York Jets Out, revert to Two-Team Tiebreaker
1. H2H: Baltimore beat Denver
Result: Baltimore wins based on Jets being eliminated during the 3 team tiebreaker, leaving Balt. and Den. still tied. Two-team tiebreaker results in Baltimore winning wildcard spot.
DEN/BAL/NE
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (No Team has beat both or lost to both)
3. DEN (8-4) v. BAL (8-4) v. NE (7-5)
New England Out
1. H2H: Baltimore wins
Result: New England eliminated at conference record stage (to finish 10-6 would have to finish 7-5 in conference.) Baltimore wins h2h.
MIA/NYJ/DEN
1. Divisional Tie
Miami wins over NYJ based on Division Record and NYJ are knocked out.
2. Apply two-team tiebreaker (see above)
Result: Based on two-team tiebreaker, Denver is currently trailing in Strength of Victory and would lose SOS tiebraker. Likely Miami wins out.
NE/NYJ/DEN
1. Divisional Tie
NE wins out via Divisional record and NYJ are knocked out.
2. Apply two-team tiebreaker (H2H: goes to Denver)
Result: Denver beats NE based on H2H
Of these 14 scenarios, Denver loses 11 of them most likely at this point. It could increase if teams Denver has beaten win more than teams Miami has beaten over the next 3 weeks. Somewhere around a 25% chance of Denver winning a tiebreaker situation if Denver finishes 10-6 (beating KC/OAK) and two other teams finish 10-6 tied for the wildcard.
In other words, we really need to win next week and badly need all but 1 of those teams to falter (outside of the AFCE division winner.)
Tiebreakers Versus Non-Division Opponents
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-6)
Remaining: IND/NE/CLE
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 9-3 (JAX) v. 8-4 (DEN)
Result: Jacksonville wins tie as to finish 10-6 they must win out and thus finish 9-3 in conference, while the best Denver can do is 8-4.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-6)
Remaining: CHI/PIT/OAK
1. H2H: BALTIMORE WON
Result: Baltimore wins tie as they beat Denver.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-6)
Remaining: TEN/HOU/PIT
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 8-4 (MIA) v. 8-4 (DEN)
3. COMMON: 2-2 (MIA) v. 2-2 (DEN)
4. STR VICT: 58 OPP. WINS (MIA) v. 56 OPP. WINS (DEN)
5. SOS: .543(MIA) v. .514 (DEN)
Result: Miami wins tie, unless teams Denver has beaten win 3 more than Miami's defeated-opponent's win.
NEW YORK JETS (7-6)
Remaining: IND/NE/CLE
1. H2H: N/A
2. CONF: 7-5 (NYJ) v. 8-4 (DEN)
Result: Denver wins tie based on conference record tiebreaker.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-5)
Remaining: BUF/JAX/HOU
1. H2H: Denver
Result: If Miami overcomes New England for the division lead, then New England falls into wildcard pool and loses
THREE-WAY TIEBREAKER
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.
DEN/JAX/BAL
1. Non-Division Tie
2. N/A (Denver and JAX have not played)
3. JAX (9-3) v. BAL (8-4) v. DEN (8-4)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/MIA
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. MIA (8-4) v. DEN (8-4)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/NYJ
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. DEN (8-4) v. NYJ (7-5)
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/JAX/NE
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A
3. JAX (9-3) v. DEN (8-4) v. NE (7-5) [NE would have to lose to JAX in this scneario and add one conference loss]
Result: Jacksonville wins based on conference tiebreaker. If another wildcard spot remains, then see above for two-team tiebreaker.
DEN/BAL/MIA
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (Denver and Miami have not played)
3. DEN (8-4) v. MIA (8-4) v. BAL (8-4)
4. BAL (3-2) v. DEN (2-3) v. MIA (2-3)
Result: Baltimore wins based on common opponents (SD, IND, PIT, NE)
DEN/BAL/NYJ
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (Denver and NYJ have not played)
3. DEN (8-4) v. BAL (8-4) v. NYJ (7-5)
New York Jets Out, revert to Two-Team Tiebreaker
1. H2H: Baltimore beat Denver
Result: Baltimore wins based on Jets being eliminated during the 3 team tiebreaker, leaving Balt. and Den. still tied. Two-team tiebreaker results in Baltimore winning wildcard spot.
DEN/BAL/NE
1. Non-Divisional Tie
2. N/A (No Team has beat both or lost to both)
3. DEN (8-4) v. BAL (8-4) v. NE (7-5)
New England Out
1. H2H: Baltimore wins
Result: New England eliminated at conference record stage (to finish 10-6 would have to finish 7-5 in conference.) Baltimore wins h2h.
MIA/NYJ/DEN
1. Divisional Tie
Miami wins over NYJ based on Division Record and NYJ are knocked out.
2. Apply two-team tiebreaker (see above)
Result: Based on two-team tiebreaker, Denver is currently trailing in Strength of Victory and would lose SOS tiebraker. Likely Miami wins out.
NE/NYJ/DEN
1. Divisional Tie
NE wins out via Divisional record and NYJ are knocked out.
2. Apply two-team tiebreaker (H2H: goes to Denver)
Result: Denver beats NE based on H2H
Of these 14 scenarios, Denver loses 11 of them most likely at this point. It could increase if teams Denver has beaten win more than teams Miami has beaten over the next 3 weeks. Somewhere around a 25% chance of Denver winning a tiebreaker situation if Denver finishes 10-6 (beating KC/OAK) and two other teams finish 10-6 tied for the wildcard.
In other words, we really need to win next week and badly need all but 1 of those teams to falter (outside of the AFCE division winner.)