RunYouOver
12-01-2009, 10:50 PM
Rather than simply doing one of those “If the season ended today” threads that I’ve made the past few years, I thought I’d REALLY expand it this year and provide the answers to many, if not all the “what ifs” everyone has, myself included.
So here’s how this will work: First, the traditional If the season ended today playoff scenarios, with match ups down through the rest of the postseason. Second, a list of our remaining schedule (with some stats) followed by San Diego’s remaining schedule (with some stats). Finally, I’ll play the “what if” game, and run out a bunch of scenarios and let you know how we would wind up.
If the season ended TODAY (After Week 12):
AFC:
1. Indy (11-0, clinched AFC South)
2. Cincinnati (8-3, first in the AFC North)
3. San Diego (8-3, first in the AFC West)
4. New England (7-4, first in the AFC East)
5. Denver (7-4, higher seeded WC)
6. Jacksonville (6-5, lower seeded WC)
In the hunt:
7. Baltimore (6-5)
8. Pittsburgh (6-5)
Explanations:
--Cincinnati is currently seeded above San Diego because of a better record in common games, but this tiebreaker will be pointless after these teams meet in Week 15
--For the three 6-5 teams, Pittsburgh would be eliminated because Baltimore currently has the head to head advantage over them (1-0), and Jacksonville beats out Baltimore because of a better AFC record (5-2 compared with 6-4)
NFC:
1. New Orleans (11-0)
2. Minnesota (10-1)
3. Dallas (8-3)
4. Arizona (7-4)
5. Philly (7-4)
6. Green Bay (7-4)
In the hunt:
7. New York (6-5)
8. Atlanta (6-5)
Explanations:
--Philadelphia has a better conference record (6-2 compared with 6-3) than Green Bay
Post season match ups:
--Indy, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--Jax @ SD, Den @ NE, GB @ DAL, PHI @ ARI
--If we won, we would likely play Indy in round 2, in Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedules:
DEN: @ KC, @ IND, vs. OAK, @ PHI, vs. KC
SD: @ CLE, @ DAL, vs. CIN, @ TEN, vs. WAS
--We each have 2 home games left, 3 away games left
--Denver has three very winnable games, one difficult game, and one very
difficult game
--San Diego has 2 very winnable games and three difficult games
--We probably lucked out that SD has to travel to Tennessee in Week 16...If TEN has any shot of making the playoffs, or even if they don’t, they’ve been playing much better as of late and will be a challenging road game for the Chargers
--The Bengals, a good team anyway, will be playing the Chargers hard as well, knowing that it could be for a first round bye
--Dallas needs every game in the very competitive NFC East, so SD traveling to Dallas will be a challenge
--KC is always a tough place to play in December, so this next game, while winnable, is no guarantee at all
--Indy may be relaxed a bit playing us, with homefield advantage an almost certainty if they can win this week
--Philly is in the same spot we’re in, and it is always tough playing there, too…that will be a tough one
--Comparing these schedules, it is very possible SD goes 3-2 and we go 4-1, which would put us both at 11-5…then what, you ask?
What if scenarios:
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY, and SD loses to Cincy and Dallas:
We split the head to head, we would both be 5-1 in the division, so you go to the common games record, where the common opponents are the AFC North and NFC East: Denver is 5-3 in those games while San Diego would be 4-4 with those two losses. We’d both be 8-4 in conference record, which wouldn’t matter here. In this scenario, we win the division and would be the third seed most likely, as Cincy would be primed to finish 12-4 if they beat SD.
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY, and SD loses to TEN and Dallas:
Here is where it gets real, real tricky: Tied head to head, tied division record, tied common opponents, tied conference, so the next tie breaker here would be strength of victory. Since it’s too tricky and kind of pointless to determine how all of the teams we play will finish, I’ll show you where we stand as of now to give you an idea: Denver has beaten CIN, CLE, OAK, DAL, NE, SD, NYG, who have a combined record of 41-36. SD has beaten Oakland (x2) Denver, KC (x2), Miami, Philly and NYG, who have a combined record of 37-40. Our current strength of victory is 0.532, SD’s is .481, so we would win here.
In this scenario, Cincy would likely finish 11-5, tying with us. Because of our head to head victory, we would be the #2 seed and have a first round bye
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY and SD loses to Cincy and Ten:
We would have a better common opponents record and would win the division.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to Cincy and Dallas:
In this scenario, the common opponents would be tied at 4-4, but our conference record would be better (9-3) than San Diego’s (8-4), so we would win. We would probably be the third or fourth seed in this scenario.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to TEN and Dallas:
San Diego would have a better common opponents record than us and would win the division. We would be the fifth seed.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to Ten and CIN:
We would have a tied common opponents record, but a better conference record, and would win the division.
If Denver loses to Philly AND Indy, and SD loses to Cincy, TEN and DAL:
Common opponents record would be tied, but our conference record would be better than SD’s (8-4 to 7-5).
If we lose ANY division game:
We would need to finish with a better record than SD, or they would win the division with a better divisional record.
If we win out and SD loses to Cin:
We would have a tied common opponents record, but a better conference record (9-3 to 8-4), so we would win the division.
If we win out and SD loses to DAL:
Tied opponents record, tied conference record but better strength of victory, so we would win the division.
If we win out and SD loses to TEN:
San Diego would have a better common opponents record (6-2 to 5-3) and they would win the division.
Key things to keep in mind in case of any ties:
--We have the tie breaker over Cincy and New England, and if Indy loses out, then we would have it over Indy too.
--Baltimore and Pittsburgh have tiebreakers over us, BUT, it is my understanding of rule No. 1 of the tiebreaking procedure for 3+ clubs of the wildcard, that if the three of us were tied at the end of the season with the same record for the 5th and 6th seeds, only the higher seeded divisional winner would get a spot, and we would get the 6th spot. Judge for yourself, but that is how I interpreted it:
“Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.”
--If we can win 4 out of our last 5 though, we are in regardless as Pit and Baltimore still have one head-to-head meeting, and Jacksonville’s schedule looks far too difficult to win out (vs Miami, Indy, @New England).
Any questions, let me know.
So here’s how this will work: First, the traditional If the season ended today playoff scenarios, with match ups down through the rest of the postseason. Second, a list of our remaining schedule (with some stats) followed by San Diego’s remaining schedule (with some stats). Finally, I’ll play the “what if” game, and run out a bunch of scenarios and let you know how we would wind up.
If the season ended TODAY (After Week 12):
AFC:
1. Indy (11-0, clinched AFC South)
2. Cincinnati (8-3, first in the AFC North)
3. San Diego (8-3, first in the AFC West)
4. New England (7-4, first in the AFC East)
5. Denver (7-4, higher seeded WC)
6. Jacksonville (6-5, lower seeded WC)
In the hunt:
7. Baltimore (6-5)
8. Pittsburgh (6-5)
Explanations:
--Cincinnati is currently seeded above San Diego because of a better record in common games, but this tiebreaker will be pointless after these teams meet in Week 15
--For the three 6-5 teams, Pittsburgh would be eliminated because Baltimore currently has the head to head advantage over them (1-0), and Jacksonville beats out Baltimore because of a better AFC record (5-2 compared with 6-4)
NFC:
1. New Orleans (11-0)
2. Minnesota (10-1)
3. Dallas (8-3)
4. Arizona (7-4)
5. Philly (7-4)
6. Green Bay (7-4)
In the hunt:
7. New York (6-5)
8. Atlanta (6-5)
Explanations:
--Philadelphia has a better conference record (6-2 compared with 6-3) than Green Bay
Post season match ups:
--Indy, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--Jax @ SD, Den @ NE, GB @ DAL, PHI @ ARI
--If we won, we would likely play Indy in round 2, in Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedules:
DEN: @ KC, @ IND, vs. OAK, @ PHI, vs. KC
SD: @ CLE, @ DAL, vs. CIN, @ TEN, vs. WAS
--We each have 2 home games left, 3 away games left
--Denver has three very winnable games, one difficult game, and one very
difficult game
--San Diego has 2 very winnable games and three difficult games
--We probably lucked out that SD has to travel to Tennessee in Week 16...If TEN has any shot of making the playoffs, or even if they don’t, they’ve been playing much better as of late and will be a challenging road game for the Chargers
--The Bengals, a good team anyway, will be playing the Chargers hard as well, knowing that it could be for a first round bye
--Dallas needs every game in the very competitive NFC East, so SD traveling to Dallas will be a challenge
--KC is always a tough place to play in December, so this next game, while winnable, is no guarantee at all
--Indy may be relaxed a bit playing us, with homefield advantage an almost certainty if they can win this week
--Philly is in the same spot we’re in, and it is always tough playing there, too…that will be a tough one
--Comparing these schedules, it is very possible SD goes 3-2 and we go 4-1, which would put us both at 11-5…then what, you ask?
What if scenarios:
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY, and SD loses to Cincy and Dallas:
We split the head to head, we would both be 5-1 in the division, so you go to the common games record, where the common opponents are the AFC North and NFC East: Denver is 5-3 in those games while San Diego would be 4-4 with those two losses. We’d both be 8-4 in conference record, which wouldn’t matter here. In this scenario, we win the division and would be the third seed most likely, as Cincy would be primed to finish 12-4 if they beat SD.
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY, and SD loses to TEN and Dallas:
Here is where it gets real, real tricky: Tied head to head, tied division record, tied common opponents, tied conference, so the next tie breaker here would be strength of victory. Since it’s too tricky and kind of pointless to determine how all of the teams we play will finish, I’ll show you where we stand as of now to give you an idea: Denver has beaten CIN, CLE, OAK, DAL, NE, SD, NYG, who have a combined record of 41-36. SD has beaten Oakland (x2) Denver, KC (x2), Miami, Philly and NYG, who have a combined record of 37-40. Our current strength of victory is 0.532, SD’s is .481, so we would win here.
In this scenario, Cincy would likely finish 11-5, tying with us. Because of our head to head victory, we would be the #2 seed and have a first round bye
If Denver ONLY loses to INDY and SD loses to Cincy and Ten:
We would have a better common opponents record and would win the division.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to Cincy and Dallas:
In this scenario, the common opponents would be tied at 4-4, but our conference record would be better (9-3) than San Diego’s (8-4), so we would win. We would probably be the third or fourth seed in this scenario.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to TEN and Dallas:
San Diego would have a better common opponents record than us and would win the division. We would be the fifth seed.
If Denver ONLY loses to Philly and SD loses to Ten and CIN:
We would have a tied common opponents record, but a better conference record, and would win the division.
If Denver loses to Philly AND Indy, and SD loses to Cincy, TEN and DAL:
Common opponents record would be tied, but our conference record would be better than SD’s (8-4 to 7-5).
If we lose ANY division game:
We would need to finish with a better record than SD, or they would win the division with a better divisional record.
If we win out and SD loses to Cin:
We would have a tied common opponents record, but a better conference record (9-3 to 8-4), so we would win the division.
If we win out and SD loses to DAL:
Tied opponents record, tied conference record but better strength of victory, so we would win the division.
If we win out and SD loses to TEN:
San Diego would have a better common opponents record (6-2 to 5-3) and they would win the division.
Key things to keep in mind in case of any ties:
--We have the tie breaker over Cincy and New England, and if Indy loses out, then we would have it over Indy too.
--Baltimore and Pittsburgh have tiebreakers over us, BUT, it is my understanding of rule No. 1 of the tiebreaking procedure for 3+ clubs of the wildcard, that if the three of us were tied at the end of the season with the same record for the 5th and 6th seeds, only the higher seeded divisional winner would get a spot, and we would get the 6th spot. Judge for yourself, but that is how I interpreted it:
“Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.”
--If we can win 4 out of our last 5 though, we are in regardless as Pit and Baltimore still have one head-to-head meeting, and Jacksonville’s schedule looks far too difficult to win out (vs Miami, Indy, @New England).
Any questions, let me know.