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View Full Version : The Jaguars and Steelers losses mean what for us?



TXBRONC
11-30-2009, 09:20 AM
Exactly how do the losses that the Steelers and the Jaguars had yesterday effect Denver's playoff aspirations at the moment? I'm not one for getting into "If the season ended today scenarios" but nonetheless the losses that the Jaguars and the Steelers suffered yesterday does give us some kind of advantage atm doesn't it?

BroncoWave
11-30-2009, 09:27 AM
Exactly how do the losses that the Steelers and the Jaguars had yesterday effect Denver's playoff aspirations at the moment? I'm not one for getting into "If the season ended today scenarios" but nonetheless the losses that the Jaguars and the Steelers suffered yesterday does give us some kind of advantage atm doesn't it?

Had they both won there would be a three game tie for the two wild card spots. Those two losing means that we have a one game lead over the rest of the field. It also means that if we can just finish up 3-2, beating the teams we are supposed to, that 2 of the 3 teams teams behind us at 6-5 (Steelers, Ravens and Jags) would have to finish 4-1 and win the tiebreakers over us to get the wildcards. It also means that any of the 5-6 teams would have to win out and beat us in tiebreakers.

So pretty much, those two teams losing means that as long as we can win the games we are supposed to to close out the year, we are looking pretty good for a wildcard spot.

Dirk
11-30-2009, 09:28 AM
ATM with the Steelers loss, the Broncos are one of the AFC Wildcard teams. They must continue to win to keep it. Unless they can overcome San Diego to win the division.

MileHighCrew
11-30-2009, 09:30 AM
The Broncos are in control of their own fate. They couldn't ask for more

BroncoInSkinland
11-30-2009, 09:51 AM
Had they both won there would be a three game tie for the two wild card spots. Those two losing means that we have a one game lead over the rest of the field. It also means that if we can just finish up 3-2, beating the teams we are supposed to, that 2 of the 3 teams teams behind us at 6-5 (Steelers, Ravens and Jags) would have to finish 4-1 and win the tiebreakers over us to get the wildcards. It also means that any of the 5-6 teams would have to win out and beat us in tiebreakers.

So pretty much, those two teams losing means that as long as we can win the games we are supposed to to close out the year, we are looking pretty good for a wildcard spot.

Steelers and Ravens will both have automatic tiebreakers over us from head to head games. Not trying to be negative, just saying.

frauschieze
11-30-2009, 09:56 AM
Had they both won there would be a three game tie for the two wild card spots. Those two losing means that we have a one game lead over the rest of the field. It also means that if we can just finish up 3-2, beating the teams we are supposed to, that 2 of the 3 teams teams behind us at 6-5 (Steelers, Ravens and Jags) would have to finish 4-1 and win the tiebreakers over us to get the wildcards. It also means that any of the 5-6 teams would have to win out and beat us in tiebreakers.

So pretty much, those two teams losing means that as long as we can win the games we are supposed to to close out the year, we are looking pretty good for a wildcard spot.

I'd just like to add that both the Steelers and the Ravens would have the tiebreaker over us if we ended the season with the same records. However, because both teams are from the same division, only one can "compete" for a wild card spot.

In addition, currently, Jacksonville has the tiebreaker over us because they have only two conference losses (IND & TEN) and we have three (BAL, PIT & SD). We both have four conference games left, one of which is Indy. But our other three are KC twice and OAK. They have HOU, MIA & NE; arguably a harder schedule.

TXBRONC
11-30-2009, 09:58 AM
Jaguars remaining schedule: Houston, @ Miami, Indainapolis, @ New England, @ Cleveland.

Ravens remaining schedule: @ Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, @ Pittsburgh, @ Oakland.

Steelers remaining schedule: Oakland, @ Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, @ Miami.

Considering the remaining schedules of those three teams yeah Denver is in pretty good position to make the playoffs if they take care of their business.

TXBRONC
11-30-2009, 10:00 AM
I'd just like to add that both the Steelers and the Ravens would have the tiebreaker over us if we ended the season with the same records. However, because both teams are from the same division, only one can "compete" for a wild card spot.

In addition, currently, Jacksonville has the tiebreaker over us because they have only two conference losses (IND & TEN) and we have three (BAL, PIT & SD). We both have four conference games left, one of which is Indy. But our other three are KC twice and OAK. They have HOU, MIA & NE; arguably a harder schedule.

Also three of the Jaguars last four games are on the road.

frauschieze
11-30-2009, 10:02 AM
Considering the remaining schedules of those three teams yeah Denver is in pretty good position to make the playoffs if they take care of their business.

Indeed. :salute:

Mike
11-30-2009, 10:05 AM
I think given Pitts schedule, Denver has to win 4 of the last 5 to get in.

TXBRONC
11-30-2009, 10:05 AM
Steelers and Ravens will both have automatic tiebreakers over us from head to head games. Not trying to be negative, just saying.

True but the Ravens and Steelers also have play each other one more time and they both have to face Green Bay which could prove to be difficult for both of them

BroncoInSkinland
11-30-2009, 10:10 AM
True but the Ravens and Steelers also have play each other one more time and they both have to face Green Bay which could prove to be difficult for both of them

I think they will both tear through GB, I like Aaron as a QB, but they have got to get him some line help. I also think Bal could sweep Pit, if Flacco ever gets the offense performing consistently. But your point is taken. Besides it isn't gonna matter. We are finally gonna get the Indy monkey off our back, watch SD drop one somewhere along the line, and win our division so this is all theoretical. :D

frauschieze
11-30-2009, 10:11 AM
I think given Pitts schedule, Denver has to win 4 of the last 5 to get in.

There are two spots up for grabs. If PIT AND JAX win the next 3 of 5, then we're in trouble. But if it's only PIT, or BAL or both PIT & BAL, then we're fine.

However, none of this is considering any of the 5-6 teams. They could win 4 of 5 and be right in the mix.

Cugel
11-30-2009, 11:22 AM
Had they both won there would be a three game tie for the two wild card spots. Those two losing means that we have a one game lead over the rest of the field. It also means that if we can just finish up 3-2, beating the teams we are supposed to, that 2 of the 3 teams teams behind us at 6-5 (Steelers, Ravens and Jags) would have to finish 4-1 and win the tiebreakers over us to get the wildcards. It also means that any of the 5-6 teams would have to win out and beat us in tiebreakers.

So pretty much, those two teams losing means that as long as we can win the games we are supposed to to close out the year, we are looking pretty good for a wildcard spot.

True. But, they have to take care of business.

The BIGGEST game Sunday was the Chargers whipping the Chiefs which virtually guarantees them the division title (because of tie-breakers). :(

BroncoWave
11-30-2009, 11:57 AM
There are two spots up for grabs. If PIT AND JAX win the next 3 of 5, then we're in trouble. But if it's only PIT, or BAL or both PIT & BAL, then we're fine.

However, none of this is considering any of the 5-6 teams. They could win 4 of 5 and be right in the mix.

I disagree with this. If we can just take care of business against Oak and KC, then it won't matter if those 2 teams finish 3-2 because we will still have a better record. Now if they were to both finish 4-1 then that would be a problem, unless we also finished 4-1.

As for the 5-6 teams, they would have to win out to get in the discussion assuming we finish 3-2. And seeing as they all currently have losing records, it's unlikely that any of them will suddenly win 5 straight.

silkamilkamonico
11-30-2009, 01:38 PM
True but the Ravens and Steelers also have play each other one more time and they both have to face Green Bay which could prove to be difficult for both of them

Which is why I think we really needed Pittsburgh to win last night. I'm not worried so much about Jax.

If Pitt would have won last night, Baltimore would have dropped to 5-6, with a good chance of dropping another too Pittsburgh giving them 7. That would probably IMO knock them out completely.

Both Baltimore/Pitt could(should) go undefeated the rest of the way with the winner of their head to head game getting the first wild card, and the next ending the season with 6 losses.

Green Bay is really the only game on both their schedule that could give them problems, and with as weak as they are along the oline/dline, they could get completely manhandled at the LOS much in the same way Denver did.

I'm going to assume Denver wins the 3 games against KC (2x) and Oakland, and then hoping we can beat either Indy or Philly to get into the wildcard spot.

NightTrainLayne
11-30-2009, 01:46 PM
Just win all 5 and we're good. :D

Northman
11-30-2009, 02:10 PM
Jaguars remaining schedule:
Houston, (Loss)
@ Miami, (Loss)
Indainapolis, (Loss)
@ New England, (Loss)
@ Cleveland. (Win)

Ravens remaining schedule:
@ Green Bay, (Loss)
Detroit, (Win)
Chicago, (Win)
@ Pittsburgh, (Loss)
@ Oakland. (Win)

Steelers remaining schedule:
Oakland, (Win)
@ Cleveland, (Win)
Green Bay, (Loss)
Baltimore, (Win)
@ Miami. (Win)


Thats how i see them finishing out.

CoachChaz
11-30-2009, 02:13 PM
Yeah...I think we'll have to win 3 to get in. i dont see Baltimore or Jax winning 3 or more.

WARHORSE
11-30-2009, 02:19 PM
I'd just like to add that both the Steelers and the Ravens would have the tiebreaker over us if we ended the season with the same records. However, because both teams are from the same division, only one can "compete" for a wild card spot.

In addition, currently, Jacksonville has the tiebreaker over us because they have only two conference losses (IND & TEN) and we have three (BAL, PIT & SD). We both have four conference games left, one of which is Indy. But our other three are KC twice and OAK. They have HOU, MIA & NE; arguably a harder schedule.


Actually, being in the same division doesnt eliminate any teams from the second wildcard position. Both wildcard spots are determined by regular season record and the tie break system.

Although extremely rare, three teams in the same division can all make the playoffs.

TXBRONC
11-30-2009, 02:20 PM
True. But, they have to take care of business.

The BIGGEST game Sunday was the Chargers whipping the Chiefs which virtually guarantees them the division title (because of tie-breakers). :(

Only if we lose to the Chiefs.

BroncoWave
11-30-2009, 04:04 PM
Actually, being in the same division doesnt eliminate any teams from the second wildcard position. Both wildcard spots are determined by regular season record and the tie break system.

Although extremely rare, three teams in the same division can all make the playoffs.

Yep, if we, Baltimore and Pitt were to wind up with the same record, we would be the odd team out. For the 5 seed, they would first do a tiebreak between Baltimore and Pittsburgh then put the winner of that tiebreak against Denver, and seeing as we lost to both of them we would lose the tiebreak for the 5th seed, and the tiebreak for the 6th seed and be on the outside looking in.

frauschieze
11-30-2009, 04:17 PM
Actually, being in the same division doesnt eliminate any teams from the second wildcard position. Both wildcard spots are determined by regular season record and the tie break system.

Although extremely rare, three teams in the same division can all make the playoffs.

I stand (somewhat) corrected. The tie break system DOES eliminate multiple teams from the same division before being applied.


Apply division tie breaker (http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures) to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

However, it would not make a difference in our specific situation, as both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the head to head tiebreaker over us. While one of the two WOULD be first eliminated from the #5 position, that team would be added back in for consideration of the #6 position. If all three clubs end the season with the same record, we will not get a wild card spot.

dogfish
11-30-2009, 06:53 PM
I stand (somewhat) corrected. The tie break system DOES eliminate multiple teams from the same division before being applied.



However, it would not make a difference in our specific situation, as both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the head to head tiebreaker over us. While one of the two WOULD be first eliminated from the #5 position, that team would be added back in for consideration of the #6 position. If all three clubs end the season with the same record, we will not get a wild card spot.



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Superchop 7
11-30-2009, 09:18 PM
The loss means that they did not win.

In football, unlike golf, the team with the higher score is the victor.

rcsodak
11-30-2009, 11:51 PM
I'd just like to add that both the Steelers and the Ravens would have the tiebreaker over us if we ended the season with the same records. However, because both teams are from the same division, only one can "compete" for a wild card spot.

In addition, currently, Jacksonville has the tiebreaker over us because they have only two conference losses (IND & TEN) and we have three (BAL, PIT & SD). We both have four conference games left, one of which is Indy. But our other three are KC twice and OAK. They have HOU, MIA & NE; arguably a harder schedule.

Honestly, Jax doesn't worry me this year as much as past years. They're not that good. Take away their running game, and they're done.

And Ten will NOT be in the hunt. They're too far back and will run out of gas. It takes more energy to HAVE to win every week.

So that leaves Pitt/Bal.

If cinci wins that division, ONE of those teams needs to have 1 more loss than denver or they could have 3 teams in.

rcsodak
12-01-2009, 12:33 AM
Jaguars remaining schedule:
Houston, (Loss)
@ Miami, (Loss)
Indainapolis, (Loss)
@ New England, (Loss)
@ Cleveland. (Win)

Ravens remaining schedule:
@ Green Bay, (Loss)
Detroit, (Win)
Chicago, (Win)
@ Pittsburgh, (Loss)
@ Oakland. (Win)

Steelers remaining schedule:
Oakland, (Win)
@ Cleveland, (Win)
Green Bay, (Loss)
Baltimore, (Win)
@ Miami. (Win)


Thats how i see them finishing out.

So you think GB will beat BOTH Bal/Pit? I dunno about that. Pit COULD run the table for #5 spot.
If Bal beats GB, they could take #6, with 10wins.

Cinci:
Detroit - Win
at Minn - Loss
at San - ????
KC - Win
at NYJ - Win

All they'll need is 11 for their Division. They can lay eggs vs Minn/SD and still get that. Crap!

Indy #1seed Only Fact I'll conclude.

Denver would play either Cin/NE/SD if they get in. They've already beat all three. They CAN beat them again, IMO. But they HAVE to get 11wins. Frankly, Denver NEEDS to beat KC/Oak, AND Philly, imo, to get in. I'm not sure Bal/Pit will lose 2/5.

It could totally come down to the last game, against KC, if Denver doesn't stub their toes again in the meantime.

frauschieze
12-01-2009, 12:36 AM
I've thought about this for a while and I've made an executive decision: San Diego just needs to lose the rest of their games. I've written the Spanos, AJ Smith and Norv Turner and I expect their response detailing their compliance any day now.

rcsodak
12-01-2009, 12:44 AM
I've thought about this for a while and I've made an executive decision: San Diego just needs to lose the rest of their games. I've written the Spanos, AJ Smith and Norv Turner and I expect their response detailing their compliance any day now.

Tell 'em lose or else " I think the dingo ate your baby!"

JDL
12-01-2009, 02:08 AM
Exactly how do the losses that the Steelers and the Jaguars had yesterday effect Denver's playoff aspirations at the moment? I'm not one for getting into "If the season ended today scenarios" but nonetheless the losses that the Jaguars and the Steelers suffered yesterday does give us some kind of advantage atm doesn't it?

Steelers losing hurt our playoff chances. Jaguars loss helps.

The reason the Steelers loss hurts is that BOTH Pittsburgh and Baltimore own tiebreakers over us that cannot be overcome without a 3 way tie from a team we can win a tiebreaker over (3-way can only happen if a team from a 3rd division is tied, because division ties are broken BEFORE any other tiebreakers are applied - even for wildcard.)

Baltimore losing would have left them 5-6 and facing the prospect of HAVING to beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, plus an @Green Bay game next week. That would have been tough.

Jaguars will have a tough time of it but so long as they get to 10 wins, they are likely in (short of two 11-5 teams), because they will have at most only 3 conference losses.

Even at 7-4, we are probably behind all 3 of those teams, in part because it is hard to imagine us beating Indy, plus having to go to KC is always tough, plus Phi is dangerous... 2 losses for our schizo bunch is not unrealistic. So really, we want a 5-6 team to run the table and create that 3-way tie that might bail us out of the Balt/Pitt losses.

But, honestly it is 11-5 or bust.

BroncoWave
12-01-2009, 09:56 AM
But, honestly it is 11-5 or bust.

Could not disagree more. 10-6 would almost certainly get us in. Pitt might catch us but Baltimore would have to go 4-1 to catch us and that's just not going to happen. The Ravens just aren't that good of a team.

It took them until overtime to win at HOME against a Steelers team starting a third stringer in his first career game and without their best defensive player. There is no way that should have been that close. Pitt is going to kill them when they play again which means Baltimore just needs to lose one of their other 4 games and we will be fine.

JDL
12-01-2009, 04:30 PM
Could not disagree more. 10-6 would almost certainly get us in. Pitt might catch us but Baltimore would have to go 4-1 to catch us and that's just not going to happen. The Ravens just aren't that good of a team.

It took them until overtime to win at HOME against a Steelers team starting a third stringer in his first career game and without their best defensive player. There is no way that should have been that close. Pitt is going to kill them when they play again which means Baltimore just needs to lose one of their other 4 games and we will be fine.

Ravens have 3 easy games, so they just need to split their two tough games and did you forget that Jax also could go 4-1 and beat us out. 10-6 does NOT almost guarantee us anything... 10-6 leaves us HOPING other teams falter because we do not control our own destiny in that situation.

TXBRONC
12-01-2009, 04:37 PM
Ravens have 3 easy games, so they just need to split their two tough games and did you forget that Jax also could go 4-1 and beat us out. 10-6 does NOT almost guarantee us anything... 10-6 leaves us HOPING other teams falter because we do not control our own destiny in that situation.

Denver can make it into the playoffs with 10-6 but it means we have to have a lot of help. Even 11-5 isn't an absolute if Ravens get on a roll over the last 5 games.

That being said I don't know about Jacksonville going 4-1 their last 5 games considering the have to face Indianapolis and New England in that stretch. Heck for that matter the Texans are capable of beating them in their house.

BroncoWave
12-01-2009, 04:43 PM
I don't get why people think the Ravens are suddenly going to get hot. They have been an average team all year. Flacco is overrated and that defense isn't getting any younger. I would be shocked if they won in GB or in Pitt. Hell even Chicago or Oakland could trip them up.

The Ravens ONLY impressive win this season was against us. Other than that, they have beaten the Browns twice, the Chiefs, and the Chargers in week 2 when they were still sucking, and Pitt without their two best players. I don't get why people think they will suddenly start beating good teams.

TXBRONC
12-01-2009, 05:06 PM
I don't get why people think the Ravens are suddenly going to get hot. They have been an average team all year. Flacco is overrated and that defense isn't getting any younger. I would be shocked if they won in GB or in Pitt. Hell even Chicago or Oakland could trip them up.

The Ravens ONLY impressive win this season was against us. Other than that, they have beaten the Browns twice, the Chiefs, and the Chargers in week 2 when they were still sucking, and Pitt without their two best players. I don't get why people think they will suddenly start beating good teams.

If this directed at me then you misunderstood because I didn't say that I think the Ravens will get hot only that it is possible.

BroncoWave
12-01-2009, 05:49 PM
If this directed at me then you misunderstood because I didn't say that I think the Ravens will get hot only that is possible.

Not directed at anyone in particular. I just don't think that the Ravens will suddenly start beating good teams when they haven't done so all year.

Lonestar
12-01-2009, 05:59 PM
What happens happens ..

if we go great if we do not we had a heck of a year considering all the turmoil..

the ball is in DEN court if they win out unlikely someone will beat them out.. and in fact could take the division..

but I'm holding my breath..

TXBRONC
12-01-2009, 06:42 PM
Not directed at anyone in particular. I just don't think that the Ravens will suddenly start beating good teams when they haven't done so all year.

They did beat the Steelers as sloppy as it was they still win. We don't the tie breaker over them but what we do have is more wiggle room in wins and losses. They really can't afford to lose two of their last five game and expect to make the playoffs.

BroncoWave
12-01-2009, 06:55 PM
They did beat the Steelers as sloppy as it was they still win. We don't the tie breaker over them but what we do have is more wiggle room in wins and losses. They really can't afford to lose two of their last five game and expect to make the playoffs.

No Polamalu and and a QB in his first career game, and at home. They should have killed Pitt. Not saying they can't do it but I would be surprised if they beat GB or Pitt.

TXBRONC
12-01-2009, 07:08 PM
No Polamalu and and a QB in his first career game, and at home. They should have killed Pitt. Not saying they can't do it but I would be surprised if they beat GB or Pitt.

Division game tend to be tighter. Nevertheless we do have a little wider margin for error. We can afford to drop two games where they cannot because that would at best make them 9-7. We just can not afford to drop our three remaining division game.