If season ended today we'd have the 10th pick

[titan]

Check this website for the current first round draft order:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=346961

Didn't realize this until I saw this but it may actually help the Broncos if the Chiefs and Raiders win some games and pass the Bears.

Snapshot through NFL Week 11
Code:
PICK TEAM PCT SoS
===============================================
Pick: 1 Cleveland Browns .100 .531
Pick: 2 St. Louis Rams .100 .544
Pick: 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .100 .549
Pick: 4 Detroit Lions .200 .531
Pick: 5 Seattle Seahawks .300 .488
Pick: 6 Washington Redskins .300 .500
Pick: 7 Buffalo Bills .300 .506
Pick: 8 Kansas City Chiefs .300 .512
Pick: 9 Oakland Raiders .300 .512
Pick: 10 Chicago Bears .400 .494 [Traded to Denver]
Pick: 11 San Francisco 49ers .400 .494
Pick: 12 New York Jets .400 .531
Pick: 13 Carolina Panthers .400 .555 [Traded to San Francisco]
Pick: 14 Tennessee Titans .400 .556
Pick: 15 Atlanta Falcons .500 .494
Pick: 16 Houston Texans .500 .525
Pick: 17 Baltimore Ravens .500 .531
Pick: 18 Miami Dolphins .500 .538
Pick: 19 Green Bay Packers .600 .451
Pick: 20 Pittsburgh Steelers .600 .469
Pick: 21 Jacksonville Jaguars .600 .475
Pick: 22 Philadelphia Eagles .600 .494
Pick: 23 Denver Broncos .600 .525 [Traded to Seattle]
Pick: 24 New York Giants .600 .542
Pick: 25 Arizona Cardinals .700 .450
Pick: 26 Cincinnati Bengals .700 .456
Pick: 27 San Diego Chargers .700 .463
Pick: 28 Dallas Cowboys .700 .488
Pick: 29 New England Patriots .700 .500
Pick: 30 Minnesota Vikings .900 .425
Pick: 31 New Orleans Saints 1.000 .402
Pick: 32 Indianapolis Colts 1.000 .469

[Shazam!]

Cutler has 6 more games to throw INTs though.

[CrazyHorse]

So by losing to the Raiders and Chiefs we help ourselves. It's a win/win situation.

[SOCALORADO.]

So with Pickler only helping the siuation, lets say somehow CHI stays at ten by seasons end.
Here are some player options.

QB
Jake Locker*, Washington
Height: 6-3. Weight: 223.
Projected 40 Time: 4.59.
Projected Round (2010): Top 15 Pick.

OOOH! If Locker is there, its a slam dunk. I doubt he's there, but there are a number of other players that may allow for him to slip to #10.
Huge athleticism, great mechanics, good arm strength. Solid team leader with good leadership skills. Places ball in stride of receiver. Will step up in pocket. Can play in the spread.

Sam Bradford*, Oklahoma Height: 6-4. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.79.
Projected Round (2010): Top 20 Pick.

I dunno. Just dont know yet. Hes a wait and see simply because we dont know his injury recovery prognosis. Drew Brees came back and has been incredible, so anything possible, but this could be a huge "bust" pick. What if its worse than anyone knew, and he never pans out?
A healthy Bradford is gone in the top 3 picks, so lets say hes healthy and falls to #10.
Strengths:
Good size with room to add some bulk, Peyton Manning-like accuracy
Outstanding job of anticipating routes, Solid arm strength. Capable of making all the throws. Smooth. Textbook footwork and can drop back if asked
Great decision-maker since freshman year. Understands timing. Well versed in progression reads. Experienced. Decent athleticism
Very quick release. Ridiculous level of production. Sells play action
Throws pro routes and has been under center more than given credit for in career
Strong leader and good character.

DT/DE
Gerald McCoy*, Oklahoma
Height: 6-4. Weight: 295.
Projected 40 Time: 5.01.
Projected Round (2010): Top 10 Pick.
1/10/09:Gerald McCoy dominated with 10 TFL and 6.5 sacks in 2008, qualifying for the AP All-America Second Team.
8/1/08: Named the Big XII Freshman of the Year, Gerald McCoy started every game for Oklahoma. In two games against Missouri, McCoy had three tackles for loss and a sack.


Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Height: 6-4. Weight: 305.
Projected 40 Time: 5.00.
Projected Round (2009): Top 10 Pick.
2/14/09: A monster up front for Nebraska, Ndamukong Suh notched 76 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks in 2008. He also blocked two kicks and returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns.

LB
Brandon Spikes, Florida
Height: 6-3. Weight: 244.
Projected 40 Time: 4.65.
Projected Round (2009): Top 25 Pick.
1/10/09: In addition to a win over Oklahoma in college football's runner-up championship, Spikes tallied 87 tackles, eight TFL, two sacks, four picks (two for TDs) and two passes broken up as a junior. Sound tackler, great in coverage, all around sure-fire ILB.
Character concerns have really brought Spikes into question lately. He could be just plain stupid which could be trouble off the field.
The centerpiece of Florida's defense despite being only a sophomore. Either leading the Gators in tackles or sacking opposing quarterbacks on multiple occasions every single week.

Rolando McClain*, Alabama
Height: 6-4. Weight: 248.
Projected 40 Time: 4.65.
Projected Round (2010): 1-2.
2/19/09: An AP All-America third-teamer, Rolando McClain had 95 tackles, 12 TFL, three sacks and six passes broken up for one of the top defenses in the nation.
4.6 at 255!?!?! Holy crap! Awsome tackler, great in coverage and another sure-fire player.

Safety
Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee
Height: 6-0. Weight: 195.
Projected 40 Time: 4.36.
Projected Round (2010): Top 8 Pick.
3/13/09: One of the best safety prospects to come along in a very long time. Eric Berry, a first-team All-American, had 72 tackles, 8.5 TFL, six passes broken up, three sacks and a whopping seven interceptions (two for touchdowns) as a mere sophomore. Safeties seldom go in the top five, but Berry could be an exception.

8/6/08: If Eric Berry declares early, he'll most likely be the fastest safety at the combine. As a freshman, Berry started every game and was named SEC Defensive Freshman of the Year. He recorded 86 tackles and five interceptions.


Taylor Mays, FS/SS, USC
Height: 6-4. Weight: 225.
Projected 40 Time: 4.42.
Projected Round (2010): Top 10 Pick.
12/14/08: With 49 tackles and eight tackles for loss, Taylor Mays was named a First-Team All-American. Mays' freakish athleticism makes him a likely top-10 candidate.
5/19/08: Taylor Mays' size and speed combination is sick, and what could ultimately allow him to be the first safety taken in April 2009.
2007: A 6-4, 225-pound safety who runs a 4.3? Pretty sick. As a freshman, Taylor Mays started 12 games, recorded 62 tackles and picked off three passes.


These are just a few on the defensive side of the ball. There are others...
Discuss..

[Fan in Exile]

I would love Suh, but he won't be there.

I think we have to go with a QB or D-line with our first round pick this year. We can go Center and Guard later. None of the other position have anywhere near the marginal value that QB or D-line would have for us.

Although you might be able to talk me into Spikes even with DJ, Davis, Woodyard, Larsen. :)

[titan]

I worry about Bradford's durability after this year, though he certainly has the tools to be an impact nfl quarterback. He's not all that mobile so he'll take a few shots in the NFL. Whether the Broncos consider a qb in the 1st round depends on how they feel about Brandstater I think.

Suh should be long gone before the Denver pick. I'd like to see the Broncos add some beef in the defensive line.

I have a feeling that McDaniels is going to surprise us once again in the draft with the 1st pick. While I like alot of what McDaniels has done, he hasn't proven to me yet he and his staff are good drafters. That is going to be the key to long term success; it's early but in this past year's draft it looks like the broncos didn't take full advantage of the draft picks they had available to them.

[weazel]

I think Bradford is going to be a bust. I would hate to waste a pick on a guy coming off a season long injury as well...

[MOtorboat]

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/125345/suh.jpg

[rcsodak]

I would love Suh, but he won't be there.

I think we have to go with a QB or D-line with our first round pick this year. We can go Center and Guard later. None of the other position have anywhere near the marginal value that QB or D-line would have for us.

Although you might be able to talk me into Spikes even with DJ, Davis, Woodyard, Larsen. :)

McD will NOT go with a QB in the 1st round.

Does nobody follow the team? His background?

Weaknesses are addressed first.

They can't run block. They can't stop the run. They can't put consistent pressure on the QB. They can't force 3 & outs.

Decide from there McD's order of importance....but it's NOT QB/RB.

[rcsodak]

I think Bradford is going to be a bust. I would hate to waste a pick on a guy coming off a season long injury as well...
Bradford will be as big of bust as AD is. :coffee:

[Iron Horse72]

More INT's please Cutler.

[SR]

If Denver can get their heads out of their asses AND Cutler can throw more picks/lose more games and get us a high pick, I'll be happy.

[weazel]

McD will NOT go with a QB in the 1st round.

Does nobody follow the team? His background?

Weaknesses are addressed first.

They can't run block. They can't stop the run. They can't put consistent pressure on the QB. They can't force 3 & outs.

Decide from there McD's order of importance....but it's NOT QB/RB.

the way he addressed the weaknesses in the last draft? :confused:

We needed a RB with the first pick? I thought the DL was the biggest weakness that needed "addressed"...

I agree with you though, I dont think he goes QB in the first round either

[Fan in Exile]

McD will NOT go with a QB in the 1st round.

Does nobody follow the team? His background?

Weaknesses are addressed first.

They can't run block. They can't stop the run. They can't put consistent pressure on the QB. They can't force 3 & outs.

Decide from there McD's order of importance....but it's NOT QB/RB.

We get 4.31 adj line yards per attempt which is good for 8th in the league it's not our run blocking that's a problem it's the passing game. We aren't giving up a ton of sacks/pressures and our WRs are pretty good so you do the math about what the weakness really is.

As far as his history they had no reason to pick a first round QB. They had Bledsoe who was a former first round QB and then they Tom Brady. History here is meaningless.

The problem on offense is the QB and the problem on defense is the D-line so that's why I said it's either a QB or D-linemen. Those are the weaknesses but more than that it's also where they will probably find the BPA in this draft.

[Northman]

So by losing to the Raiders and Chiefs we help ourselves. It's a win/win situation.

2 more days until i cut your head off.

[Northman]

Jevan Snead*, Ole Miss
Height: 6-3. Weight: 215.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Projected Round (2010): 2.

[Timmy!]

Jevan Snead*, Ole Miss
Height: 6-3. Weight: 215.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Projected Round (2010): 2.

If we could get Snead in the (hopefully late) 2nd I'd be stoked.

[skycoyote]

If the Broncos don't quit drafting undersized players they will be a sub par team until they can get size on defense. Under Reeves, Shanahan and now McDaniels they have endured 28 years of blow-outs, embarrassing loss' and opponents setting offensive records against their undersized defenses. Those small fast guys are ok in the regular season, but they get there ass kicked in December and January. Bowlen needs to step in and take a more proactive role in the draft. All three coach's suffered from short man's disease and never built big interior lines.

[Northman]

If the Broncos don't quit drafting undersized players they will be a sub par team until they can get size on defense. Under Reeves, Shanahan and now McDaniels they have endured 28 years of blow-outs, embarrassing loss' and opponents setting offensive records against their undersized defenses. Those small fast guys are ok in the regular season, but they get there ass kicked in December and January. Bowlen needs to step in and take a more proactive role in the draft. All three coach's suffered from short man's disease and never built big interior lines.

Nah, Bowlen just needs to get Timmy and I in there to mix things up. We would get the ship back on course. :D

[rcsodak]

the way he addressed the weaknesses in the last draft? :confused:

We needed a QB with the first pick? I thought the DL was the biggest weakness that needed "addressed"...

I agree with you though, I dont think he goes QB in the first round either

Not sure if you meant RB instead of QB, weazel. If so, I guess he saw that the current stable or rb's didn't meet his liking, so he addressed it.

I think he DID address the DL last year. With Ayers, moving Doom, bringing in Nolan's NT, and getting rid of the dead weight in Crowder and company.
Next draft, I'm sure he'll see that he needs even more!

;)

[Ravage!!!]

THe DL is STILL the biggest weakness of this team, and now the OL is too. So instead of addressing our DL's needs.. it was ignored by taking a RB (which, although is exciting, wasn't a top priority)... and now since we are moving away from what works to a new OL scheme, the OL needs to be addressed as well.

[rcsodak]

We get 4.31 adj line yards per attempt which is good for 8th in the league it's not our run blocking that's a problem it's the passing game. We aren't giving up a ton of sacks/pressures and our WRs are pretty good so you do the math about what the weakness really is.

As far as his history they had no reason to pick a first round QB. They had Bledsoe who was a former first round QB and then they Tom Brady. History here is meaningless.

The problem on offense is the QB and the problem on defense is the D-line so that's why I said it's either a QB or D-linemen. Those are the weaknesses but more than that it's also where they will probably find the BPA in this draft.

Points taken. But not being able to run, when necessary, is a big difference than being able to get "4.31" yds every run. That only happened when we had TD.

I see them getting yards when the D is thinking pass. I also see alot of running into the backs of the Olinemen, and/or getting hit in the backfield by Dlinemen breaking through the LOS.

Now, does that have something to do with everybody crowding the line because of McD's short passing scheme? Possibly. But NE started with the same scheme, until they got field stretchers like Moss, and a SHORT YARDAGE wr like Welker. It takes both, imo.

Does Denver have a RMoss? No. Bmarsh is/WAS great for YAC. Sheff is one of the better field stretching TE's around, but isn't getting utilized. That's on McD's "scheme".

I'm sure changes will be made during the offseason. Hopefully, they'll be for the better. I have no reason to think otherwise. ;)

[Dean]

Nah, Bowlen just needs to get Timmy and I in there to mix things up. We would get the ship back on course. :D

Ugh. . .exactly what course is that?:confused::D

[rcsodak]

If we could get Snead in the (hopefully late) 2nd I'd be stoked.

Did you mean stuffed?

[rcsodak]

If the Broncos don't quit drafting undersized players they will be a sub par team until they can get size on defense. Under Reeves, Shanahan and now McDaniels they have endured 28 years of blow-outs, embarrassing loss' and opponents setting offensive records against their undersized defenses. Those small fast guys are ok in the regular season, but they get there ass kicked in December and January. Bowlen needs to step in and take a more proactive role in the draft. All three coach's suffered from short man's disease and never built big interior lines.

Indy has always had undersized Defenses. Doesn't seem to be hurting them much, this year.

[DenBronx]

weigman might retire. i'm thinking at some point were going to have to get a solid center. how much longer is dawkins going to play? maybe taylor mays would be a good pick in the first.

[weazel]

Not sure if you meant RB instead of QB, weazel. If so, I guess he saw that the current stable or rb's didn't meet his liking, so he addressed it.

I think he DID address the DL last year. With Ayers, moving Doom, bringing in Nolan's NT, and getting rid of the dead weight in Crowder and company.
Next draft, I'm sure he'll see that he needs even more!

;)

yup, meant RB...

Bringing in other teams garbage didnt really help the line... thats just the same crap Shanny used to do with the D.

He didn't take a serious look at the DL in the draft. I mean, the guy only had 100 freaking players on his draft board! That has to tell you he didn't take it all too serious.

at the same time though, 80% of players drafted dont play more than 3 games in their career, so who knows... LOL

[SOCALORADO.]

Jevan Snead*, Ole Miss
Height: 6-3. Weight: 215.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Projected Round (2010): 2.

I like Snead too. Has all the intangibles you look for in a QB. Hes a little inconsistent, but what QB isnt these days.

I dont think hes there in the 2nd though. Or maybe the very top of the 2nd, so DEN would have to trade up a bit.

Here are some of the guys i would like to see DEN take, who i think are tough, game changers.
Chris O'dowd C USC
Eric Olsen C ND
Jake Locker QB WASH
Jevan Snead QB OLE MISS
Boo Robinson NT WAKE FOREST
Terrance Cody NT BAMA
Barry Church SS TOLEDO
Reshad Jones SS BAMA
Rolando McClain ILB BAMA
Micah Johnson ILB KENTUCKY
CJ Wilson DE E CAROLINA
Greg Romeus DE PITT
Dennis Pitta TE BYU
Aaron Hernandez TE FLA
Mike Johnson OG BAMA
John Jerry OG OLE MISS

All these guys are BIG, BAD MOFOS. Enough with the lightweights.

[sacmar]

Call me what you want I got my jersey on still and I'm not giving up. They have already won more games than I expected and I belive on any Sunday we can beat any team in the leauge. Screw anything else

[SOCALORADO.]

call me what you want i got my jersey on still and i'm not giving up. They have already won more games than i expected and i belive on any sunday we can beat any team in the leauge. Screw anything else

damn straight.

[weazel]

Call me what you want I got my jersey on still and I'm not giving up. They have already won more games than I expected and I belive on any Sunday we can beat any team in the leauge. Screw anything else

I understand you are wearing your jersey, but is that with the balaclava or a paper bag over your head?

[JDL]

I wouldn't freak (either direction over Bradford) but I want nothing to do with Colt McCoy. Something about him strikes me as just a horrific pro QB. He will be a turnover machine imo.

I know we don't have a shot at him at this point and we aren't likely to go safety, but I sure would feel better about us having Dawkins replacement if we drafted Eric Berry!

Terrance Cody DT or Rolando McClain (I would nick name him Die Hard though...lol... after John McClain) would be good options imo as well.

[Cugel]

We get 4.31 adj line yards per attempt which is good for 8th in the league it's not our run blocking that's a problem it's the passing game. We aren't giving up a ton of sacks/pressures and our WRs are pretty good so you do the math about what the weakness really is.

As far as his history they had no reason to pick a first round QB. They had Bledsoe who was a former first round QB and then they Tom Brady. History here is meaningless.

The problem on offense is the QB and the problem on defense is the D-line so that's why I said it's either a QB or D-linemen. Those are the weaknesses but more than that it's also where they will probably find the BPA in this draft.

Orton/Simms -- this team will go nowhere as long as they are the starters. :coffee:

Once you admit that Orton isn't the answer then you have to admit that there IS NO ANSWER for the next 3 years! Period. Can they find a QB via FA? NO WAY! NO team lets a good franchise QB get away. Nobody but the Broncos that is so you can forget FA. You get cast-offs who won't be any better than Orton.

Draft a QB in 2010?

2010 --- Rookie year -- can't expect much. Maybe by week 10 he's ready to start a few games -- assuming the team has tanked by then which is likely with Orton/ Simms as the starters. Kind of like 2006 when Cutler got 6 games as a starter.

2011 --- 2nd year -- QBs sometimes regress their 2nd year, rarely are they much better. Rare that a QB is ready to lead you anywhere in his 2nd year.
2011 -- 3rd year. By now he's starting his second season, and hopefully (HOPEFULLY) has as good a season as Cutler did last year: int's and all.

He will make some mistakes, because he's really still learning the game in his 2nd full season as a starter.

2012 -- IF you're amazingly lucky you have a guy who's ready to lead the team to a SB -- assuming that you've found replacements for Champ Bailey, Dawkins and other aging veterans in the meantime.

That might be about 1 year longer than McDaniels has his job! :coffee:

[rcsodak]

I wouldn't freak (either direction over Bradford) but I want nothing to do with Colt McCoy. Something about him strikes me as just a horrific pro QB. He will be a turnover machine imo.

I know we don't have a shot at him at this point and we aren't likely to go safety, but I sure would feel better about us having Dawkins replacement if we drafted Eric Berry!

Terrance Cody DT or Rolando McClain (I would nick name him Die Hard though...lol... after John McClain) would be good options imo as well.

McCoy isn't a top 10 player. He's too limited. Both him and Tebow are 'great college qb's'. I think the league has learned it's lesson by the likes of Rick Mirer, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Jeff George.

I've seen where McClain, LB, out of Alabama...6-4, 258, 4.6 would be a good pick. For the Dline, Corey Wooten, DE, out of Northwestern, 6-7, 265.

[rcsodak]

yup, meant RB...

Bringing in other teams garbage didnt really help the line... thats just the same crap Shanny used to do with the D.

He didn't take a serious look at the DL in the draft. I mean, the guy only had 100 freaking players on his draft board! That has to tell you he didn't take it all too serious.

at the same time though, 80% of players drafted dont play more than 3 games in their career, so who knows... LOL

Honestly? You don't think Fields/Smith/Holliday/McBean have helped AT ALL, compared to the crap they had last year? Robertson/McKinley/Harris/Mallard/Crowder were just as good? :confused:

[rcsodak]

Orton/Simms -- this team will go nowhere as long as they are the starters. :coffee:

Once you admit that Orton isn't the answer then you have to admit that there IS NO ANSWER for the next 3 years! Period. Can they find a QB via FA? NO WAY! NO team lets a good franchise QB get away. Nobody but the Broncos that is so you can forget FA. You get cast-offs who won't be any better than Orton.

Draft a QB in 2010?

2010 --- Rookie year -- can't expect much. Maybe by week 10 he's ready to start a few games -- assuming the team has tanked by then which is likely with Orton/ Simms as the starters. Kind of like 2006 when Cutler got 6 games as a starter.

2011 --- 2nd year -- QBs sometimes regress their 2nd year, rarely are they much better. Rare that a QB is ready to lead you anywhere in his 2nd year.
2011 -- 3rd year. By now he's starting his second season, and hopefully (HOPEFULLY) has as good a season as Cutler did last year: int's and all.

He will make some mistakes, because he's really still learning the game in his 2nd full season as a starter.

2012 -- IF you're amazingly lucky you have a guy who's ready to lead the team to a SB -- assuming that you've found replacements for Champ Bailey, Dawkins and other aging veterans in the meantime.

That might be about 1 year longer than McDaniels has his job! :coffee:

Orton=SB Champs.

[Ravage!!!]

:lol:

[Brand]

I believe the Broncos will trade the first pick for more picks and will go for the C and G positions along with a DE. Later, they could add a LB or DB.....

I just don't think they will draft a QB in the first round. Brandstater will move to number 2 QB and a rookie will be taken on the third or fourth round.....

[EMB6903]

McD will NOT go with a QB in the 1st round.

Does nobody follow the team? His background?

Weaknesses are addressed first.

They can't run block. They can't stop the run. They can't put consistent pressure on the QB. They can't force 3 & outs.

Decide from there McD's order of importance....but it's NOT QB/RB.

what backround? hes a rookie head coach, none of us really know what he would do if he had a QB drop to Denver that he liked in the first round.

I do know that when Mcdaniels had a elite QB play in his offensive scheme they were putting up video game like numbers.

[CrazyHorse]

2 more days until i cut your head off.

Huh? Why? I need my head. I don't want us to lose to those teams but if we do it gives us a better pick...

[rcsodak]

what backround? hes a rookie head coach, none of us really know what he would do if he had a QB drop to Denver that he liked in the first round.

I do know that when Mcdaniels had a elite QB play in his offensive scheme they were putting up video game like numbers.

I said "his background". Not his coaching history.
Where did he get his "background"?
Who does he emulate?

[EMB6903]

I said "his background". Not his coaching history.
Where did he get his "background"?
Who does he emulate?

What makes you think his backround suggests that he wont take a QB he likes in the first round? just because Bellichick didnt?

when was there a time when Bellichick was ever in need of drafting a QB in the first round?

I guess you could say in Cleveland but he still had QB's like Kosar and Testaverde.

He was handed the Patriots with a solid veteran in Drew Bledsoe and then got lucky with Brady in the 6th, the lucky

******* has never really had to have to draft a QB in the first round, but Im sure if there was ever a glaring need at the

QB position Bellichick would take one.

[rcsodak]

What makes you think his backround suggests that he wont take a QB he likes in the first round? just because Bellichick didnt?

when was there a time when Bellichick was ever in need of drafting a QB in the first round?

I guess you could say in Cleveland but he still had QB's like Kosar and Testaverde.

He was handed the Patriots with a solid veteran in Drew Bledsoe and then got lucky with Brady in the 6th, the lucky

******* has never really had to have to draft a QB in the first round, but Im sure if there was ever a glaring need at the

QB position Bellichick would take one.

He picked Brandstater. He won't do anything until after he sees what he has.
Why would he want to 'start over' again, in '10, with another qb, having to learn the system all over again?
Frankly, you're not giving him much credit. Only an idiot would start over 2yrs in a row.
And unlike you, I don't think McD is an idiot.

[Iron Horse72]

I just remembered something, Cuterl is my fantasy QB, but I don't give a shit.

I wasnt going to win the league anyways, fumbles throw picks, get pissed and sabotage the team.

Undermining coaches, it's all good just get us that top ten pick.

I think we trade down to take to take care of some glaring needs.

We need to fix the o-line for sure.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Personally, I'd pass on Terrence 'Fat Tits' Cody and rather look for a prospect like Boo Robinson in early round two. I think he has first round value, but the exceptional nature of this years DL class might let him slip. You're right though, it looks like we are in good shape for a top ten pick, I haven't seen the rest of the Bears schedule, but they will not be making the playoffs. Top fifteen more realistically, but hey -- if it was higher than our original pick that works. I'm confident the Broncos will do their best to upgrade their DL this draft. A lot of quality prospects, which is why I'm lead to believe they didn't focus too hard on those guys last year.

[BCJ]

Huh? Why? I need my head. I don't want us to lose to those teams but if we do it gives us a better pick...

Oh God, you arent one of those LEXicons that like to lose at the end of the year for a better pick? Lex wanted us to lose vs the Viks and have a losing record and a better pick in the top 10 instead of 12th. Seems that 12th pick in Clady was pretty good. Nothing is guaranteed and we arent getting Top 3 pick so please let us keep winning or at least strive to win every game until Jan. 3rd. If McD wants to see Brandstater in a real game come game 16 if we are out of the playoffs, so be it.

[SOCALORADO.]

Theres no history other than last year as to if MCD will draft a QB in the 1st.
Theres just as good a chance he will as he wont. 50/50
Belicheat never needed to draft a QB, ever, so far. he had 2 when he got there. Lucky him.
So MCD if he felt he needed a QB who fit his system and was a baller, theres no reason to assume he wouldnt draft out of need.

This Mallet guy out of Arkansas is getting alot of attention of late, simply because hes another Flacco clone. He may even jump some of these other highly touted QBs or he could very well be sitting there at #10.
Guy is 6'6" 250 and has a cannon.
Who knows. Dont be so quick to poo poo a QB at #10 and not McCoy or Tebow.

[SOCALORADO.]

So now that Pickler threw 2 more INTs and led his team to yet another loss, i think the Broncos now have the 9th pick in next years draft.
Does this change anyones thoughts on who DEN should draft?
How about trying to trade down and aquire a high 2nd rounder?
Say, a trade with NE which happens to have 3 2nd rounders i believe and a coach that i think might know our current coach. Hmmm.....
(i am not positive, but i will check and see if NE indeed has 3 2nd rounders.)
Or now that DEN has the 9th pick, does a player like QB Jake Locker come into the picture for DEN?

[JONtheBRONCO]

Hope we trade it away for future picks and sign all the upcoming free agents we have.

[Cugel]

All this will depend on Chicago continuing to lose.

And they have some very easy games down the stretch:

STL @ CHI -- W
GB @ CHI -- probable L, but they're playing a division rival at home. Division games are usually closer than games against other opponents.
CHI @ BAL -- L
MIN @ CHI -- L
CHI @DET -- W

So, that's two virtually certain wins against the two worst teams in the league, which means 6-10.

That pick could be #12 or #13 or even higher (there are a LOT of crappy teams this year) and the Bills, Redskins, Seahawks and Panthers are all in the hunt for a top 10 pick (in addition to the normal Rams, Bucs, Lions, Raiders and Chiefs).

The Titans have a long winning streak now, but THEY could go on a losing streak at any time too and muscle Chicago out of the top ten as well. Other teams with 5 wins the Bears have to worry about beating out for for a worse record are the Texans, Jets, Dolphins and 49ers (all 5-6).

Right now the Bears are "ahead" of them -- but only by virtue of losing their last game in order to hang in there with only 4 wins! All it will take is a couple of unfortunate wins over the true bottom feeders (STL and DET) and the Texans, Panthers, 49ers, Bills and Redskins could sneak in ahead of them by losing out the rest of the way! :coffee:

A one game lead on all those crappy 5-6 teams at this point in the season does not fill me with confidence! They could all lose the rest of their games (unless they play each other)! And we don't know what a 5 way tie at 6-10 would mean when the league breaks it by "strength of schedule."

We have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for a couple of upsets by the Rams or Lions. Unfortunately those teams have pretty much given up at this point, so it'll be tough to lose to them.

[weazel]

if season ended today, we wouldn't have played the superbowl!

[Biz1]

All this will depend on Chicago continuing to lose.

And they have some very easy games down the stretch:

STL @ CHI -- W
GB @ CHI -- probable L, but they're playing a division rival at home. Division games are usually closer than games against other opponents.
CHI @ BAL -- L
MIN @ CHI -- L
CHI @DET -- W

So, that's two virtually certain wins against the two worst teams in the league, which means 6-10.

That pick could be #12 or #13 or even higher (there are a LOT of crappy teams this year) and the Bills, Redskins, Seahawks and Panthers are all in the hunt for a top 10 pick (in addition to the normal Rams, Bucs, Lions, Raiders and Chiefs).

The Titans have a long winning streak now, but THEY could go on a losing streak at any time too and muscle Chicago out of the top ten as well. Other teams with 5 wins the Bears have to worry about beating out for for a worse record are the Texans, Jets, Dolphins and 49ers (all 5-6).

Right now the Bears are "ahead" of them -- but only by virtue of losing their last game in order to hang in there with only 4 wins! All it will take is a couple of unfortunate wins over the true bottom feeders (STL and DET) and the Texans, Panthers, 49ers, Bills and Redskins could sneak in ahead of them by losing out the rest of the way! :coffee:

A one game lead on all those crappy 5-6 teams at this point in the season does not fill me with confidence! They could all lose the rest of their games (unless they play each other)! And we don't know what a 5 way tie at 6-10 would mean when the league breaks it by "strength of schedule."

We have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for a couple of upsets by the Rams or Lions. Unfortunately those teams have pretty much given up at this point, so it'll be tough to lose to them.

As discouraging as this posting is, it also happens to be very accurate. The Cutler trade didn't really affect us as much as the poor drafting, poor FA signings, poor personnel decisions etc. Our GM sunk the Bears before we swapped QB's. Bears will lose to the Rams and beat Detroit...5-11.

Signed, disgruntled Bear fan.

[WARHORSE]

The Beers lost six players to injury during the game sunday.

Cutler is busy shoving NFL Network cameras post game, while acknowledging picks with the concern of a dry turd in the grass......"Yep. It was an interception."


Cutler has failed to reign himself in. Someohow thinking it demeans him in some way as a football player. Kinda like a stand up MMA fighter refusing to learn ground skills because "thats not fighting".


We can only wait to see what plays out in the schedule. But Im hoping for a 4-12 record for the Beers.

That would put us in some great draft position.

[TXBRONC]

So now that Pickler threw 2 more INTs and led his team to yet another loss, i think the Broncos now have the 9th pick in next years draft.
Does this change anyones thoughts on who DEN should draft?
How about trying to trade down and aquire a high 2nd rounder?
Say, a trade with NE which happens to have 3 2nd rounders i believe and a coach that i think might know our current coach. Hmmm.....
(i am not positive, but i will check and see if NE indeed has 3 2nd rounders.)
Or now that DEN has the 9th pick, does a player like QB Jake Locker come into the picture for DEN?

Well we don't have the 9th overall pick because the season isn't over yet. That being said if we did end up with 9th overall pick I put zero stock that just because McDaniels and Belichick are friends that he'll want to give up the farm to get a top ten pick.

If (and that's a big if) Denver should have a chance to get Terrance Cody vs Locker I would say you take Cody without batting an eye. Because we need a top flight nose tackle worse than we need a new quarterback.

[SOCALORADO.]

Well we don't have the 9th overall pick because the season isn't over yet. That being said if we did end up with 9th overall pick I put zero stock that just because McDaniels and Belichick are friends that he'll want to give up the farm to get a top ten pick.

If (and that's a big if) Denver should have a chance to get Terrance Cody vs Locker I would say you take Cody without batting an eye. Because we need a top flight nose tackle worse than we need a new quarterback.

Yeah, Cody would be a great pick. I like the Mallett kid as well. HUGE potential and upside.

[EMB6903]

He picked Brandstater. He won't do anything until after he sees what he has.
Why would he want to 'start over' again, in '10, with another qb, having to learn the system all over again?
Frankly, you're not giving him much credit. Only an idiot would start over 2yrs in a row.
And unlike you, I don't think McD is an idiot.

who said he would have to start over?

who said Orton wouldnt be the starter next year even if Denver drafted a QB in the first (im not saying they will)

[claymore]

who said he would have to start over?

who said Orton wouldnt be the starter next year even if Denver drafted a QB in the first (im not saying they will)

BPA, hopefully its a QB.

And I think Jay Cutler is losing games purposely for us. Team player till the End. Life long Bronco.

:salute:

[broncohead]

doubt we draft a QB in the first.

[topscribe]

McD will NOT go with a QB in the 1st round.

Does nobody follow the team? His background?

Weaknesses are addressed first.

They can't run block. They can't stop the run. They can't put consistent pressure on the QB. They can't force 3 & outs.

Decide from there McD's order of importance....but it's NOT QB/RB.

I agree the Broncos likely will not draft a QB on the first day. They do need to
fill a couple holes, beginning with LG and center. They also need one stud
defensive lineman, no doubt.

However, do you see any exaggeration in what you said, my friend?

1. Can't run block? They're 10th in the league in YPA, and the reason they
aren't higher is because of games such as those against Pittsburgh (#3
against the run in the league) and Baltimore (#1). But throw out those two
games, and the one against Cincy (#6), and the Broncos have not had a
game where they rushed for less than 100 yards, and they have run for more
than 200 in two of them and nearly 200 in another.

So, sure, they seemed to forget how to run in a couple games, but that
doesn't mean they haven't been able to run block all along.

2. Can't stop the run? This might be hard to believe, but they are #7 in the
league against the run. Check it out. Again, only four teams gained more than
100 yards against them--the four who beat them, incidentally. Other than
them, no team gained more than 100 yards against them, and of the rest,
four of them gained less than 75 yards.

3. Can't put consistent pressure on the QB? The Broncos have 34 sacks so
far this year by 10 different players, including the league leader (guess who).
The secondary has been commended for their superlative play (#2 pass
defense in the league), and, to a man, the secondary has credited the pass
rush for their success.

4. Can't force 3 and outs? Here are the third-down percentages for Denver's
opponents in all the games so far (most recent games first):

KC 35
NY 25
SD 38
WA 50
PT 58
BA 61
SD 18
NE 35
DA 21
OK 30
CL 21
CI 25

Notice in only three games did the enemy convert 50% or more of their
first downs. Not even the great Tom Brady did well. Take a look at the
second SD game, in which the Broncos took such a waxing: 38%.

My friend--and you are my friend--I don't call you out often (I don't often
have a need to), but I'm calling you out on this one . . . ;)


Nonetheless, the trite old adage that games are won in the trenches is as
true as it ever was, so the most pressing needs (since the Broncos are
stacked at the skill positions--yes, and at QB with Orton) are LG, C, and DL,
in my opinion.

One person fired back at me, "So you would take a offensive guard with a high
number one?" Well, maybe--depending on the guard--but likely no.

So trade down. More draft choices, more linemen.

Now, that makes sense, doesn't it? :coffee:

-----

[WARHORSE]

At this point, we STILL rank out as having the 10th pick of the draft, even though Chicago won their game.

With still four games to play, alot can change in our draft position.

We can even end up in the top 6 depending on what teams do.


If the draft were today, Seattles pick from Denver would be the 27th pick.
We picked up Smith at 37.

Looking at the draft value chart, that would mean that Denvers trading of the first round pick to Seattle cost them roughly a late third rounder, or 140 draft points. And if we keep winning, the pick can be even lower.

Thats far from 'throwing away' a first rounder as many concluded through the trade.



Another team savings we gained with McDaniels believing in the Broncos, is all the points between the Bears pick and the Broncos pick. By McDaniels believing in the Broncos and not the Bears, he agreed to give the Broncos pick to the Seahawks. Savings?

620 draft points, equal to a first round selection at 30.

Well done McKidd.:coffee:

[BCJ]

Basically we need Cutler to be Cutler and keep losing. He has the experience to not be able to close out a year with victories (see 0-4 of 08 Broncos for games 13-16). The worst thing Frown Cannon can do right now is start blaming himself for the poor play, talk to his QB coach, not sitting on the bench after a pick, not throw off his back foot and stop thinking that he is the FRANCHISE QB. Business as usual is a winning combination for the Broncos organization.

[DenBronx]

At this point, we STILL rank out as having the 10th pick of the draft, even though Chicago won their game.

With still four games to play, alot can change in our draft position.

We can even end up in the top 6 depending on what teams do.


If the draft were today, Seattles pick from Denver would be the 27th pick.
We picked up Smith at 37.

Looking at the draft value chart, that would mean that Denvers trading of the first round pick to Seattle cost them roughly a late third rounder, or 140 draft points. And if we keep winning, the pick can be even lower.

Thats far from 'throwing away' a first rounder as many concluded through the trade.



Another team savings we gained with McDaniels believing in the Broncos, is all the points between the Bears pick and the Broncos pick. By McDaniels believing in the Broncos and not the Bears, he agreed to give the Broncos pick to the Seahawks. Savings?

620 draft points, equal to a first round selection at 30.

Well done McKidd.:coffee:

i dont think anyone was crying about us "throwing" away a 1st. it was because we got a 5'9 corner who cant even break into the line up. i still dont like it nor do i like the mcbath pick.

[DenBronx]

BPA, hopefully its a QB.

And I think Jay Cutler is losing games purposely for us. Team player till the End. Life long Bronco.

:salute:

i hear he wants to come back at a real cheap price.

[JDL]

At this point, we STILL rank out as having the 10th pick of the draft, even though Chicago won their game.

With still four games to play, alot can change in our draft position.

We can even end up in the top 6 depending on what teams do.


If the draft were today, Seattles pick from Denver would be the 27th pick.
We picked up Smith at 37.

Looking at the draft value chart, that would mean that Denvers trading of the first round pick to Seattle cost them roughly a late third rounder, or 140 draft points. And if we keep winning, the pick can be even lower.

Thats far from 'throwing away' a first rounder as many concluded through the trade.



Another team savings we gained with McDaniels believing in the Broncos, is all the points between the Bears pick and the Broncos pick. By McDaniels believing in the Broncos and not the Bears, he agreed to give the Broncos pick to the Seahawks. Savings?

620 draft points, equal to a first round selection at 30.

Well done McKidd.:coffee:

There's this weird idea that deals should be judged on the final results. The truth is that you can do everything right and have it come out or do everything wrong and have it come out right.

You have to give yourself the BEST opportunity to be successful. Every pick has VALUE in and of itself. You must maximize your opportunities to be successful. Yes McDaniels got bailed out by his team's performance, but what if Orton got injured and Simms became the starter... are we still talking about Denver having a pick in the 20s? Does McDaniels have control over that? It's no on both accounts. You judge decisions based on the information available at the time of the decision. If you make good decisions, you will more often than not have good results.

So far most of McDaniels draft strategies appear to be HIGHLY flawed.

1) It is not what he ultimately (in fact) risked for Alphonso Smith, it is what he risked at the time of making the decision.. he risked the pick of a team (8-8 the year before), with a rookie coach, tremendous overhaul of talent at key positions. A reasonably objective person would say there was a fair likelihood of the pick being a high pick in a draft widely expected, at the time, to be VERY deep.

2) So, what did he risk it on? A short CB with average CB speed (4.47) in other words... he doesn't have special speed. He is essentially a quick and ballhawking playmaker who projects to being a good 3rd CB on passing downs. He doesn't really have the physical attributes to excel on the outside. He may very well become a solid NFL player, but the odds are quite stacked against him being a special player with those limitations. In other words, it is risky to trade up for a player who is widely regarded as having that high ceiling of potential with the physical abilities, let alone taking on the added risk of someone with physical limitations as well.

Position Note: CB is also not a trademark position of the 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has routinely field spectacular defenses without the benefit of great CBs, because those defenses were built around being aggressive and creating pressure, which allows CBs to have to cover a shorter time. Granted the Broncos D right now is built more on great pass coverage and getting coverage sacks, but that is not the idea of the 3-4 defense.

An additional problem is that if they were GOOD negotiators, they would have limited which pick it was by giving the Seahawks the lower of the two. McDaniels at his press conference seemed highly unconcerned with pushing for that added protection... it was arrogant and deeply flawed thinking. It is unlikely to have been all that difficult... Seattle just wanted the extra first, but when they smelled desperation by Denver they squeezed us for a little extra. Horrible use of draft value, period, and not very characteristic of Patriots drafting style.

This same issue occurred with the Richard Quinn pick. We gave up A LOT of value, regardless of why. And in the second part, gave it up for a TE with marginal developed pass receiving skills who was joining a team with two good TEs already on the roster.

Basically we risked a lot of value that could have been utilized in THIS draft to better position us for talent or to add additional players in a deep draft. Instead we were aggressive giving up future value (in a manner similar to Washington) for players at non-critical positions. It simply has not turned out well and even if it had, it would have still been a poor use of the draft value we had accumulated in that draft.

Right now, for all that value ... we have Knowshon Moreno's production to show for it so far, which only reinforces the idea that taking on all the risk of a transaction is rarely a good way build increased value. (See the Javon Walker trade for evidence of that... yes good at first but we gave up absurd draft pick value, upfront money on a guy with attitude and injury concerns... it worked ok for 1 year then collapsed as the knee never held out.) This is why good teams take such great care to MAXIMIZE the value (or really MINIMIZE the risk) of their picks. Steelers are notorious for drafting well at the bottom of Round 1 by not forcing positions that have been heavily drafted at that point (taking the #1 TE or #1 OG rather than the 7th rated DT.) That's smart! Hopefully we get smart.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Alphonso Smith was one of their highest rated defensive players in the whole draft. He had a first-round grade and he was there at #37. With the age of our secondary, we needed youth. Jack Williams is gone, as were a bundle of other young players. Denver did use that philosophy, taking their highest graded defensive player on the board.

[claymore]

Alphonso Smith was one of their highest rated defensive players in the whole draft. He had a first-round grade and he was there at #37. With the age of our secondary, we needed youth. Jack Williams is gone, as were a bundle of other young players. Denver did use that philosophy, taking their highest graded defensive player on the board.

Trading a future #1 pick on a 2nd round player is ridiculous. If he was that good, than McD would have used the 12th or 18th pick.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Trading a future #1 pick on a 2nd round player is ridiculous. If he was that good, than McD would have used the 12th or 18th pick.

Vontae Davis went to the Dolphins late round one, and you immediately saw players like Delmas and Chung (S) go at the top of round two. New England had several other picks behind where Denver traded two and they loved Smith. Instead, they got Ron Brace (DT) Boston College and Darius Butler (CB) from Connecticut.

McDaniels did what was necessary to get the player he wanted. Knowing he had a first-rounder from Chicago, he did not care that he had to give up ours to get the player he wanted. I understand the move completely.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Keep in mind the financial aspect of it too. Denver just had two first-round picks for the first time in team history. If Chicago sucks it up more, we'll be top ten and have to shell out some $ to our pick. Found out an interesting bit on Smith's contract and his escalators via WIKI.


The Broncos selected Smith in the 2nd round (37th overall) in the 2009 NFL Draft. The Broncos traded their first round pick in 2010 in order to move up to select him. On July 26, 2009, Smith signed a four-year, $4.08 million contract with a $2.15 million signing bonus. Smith can earn $750,000 through a one-time playing-time incentive that is guaranteed for injury. In addition, if Smith wins Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2009, he'll receive a $100,000 performance escalator. He can also earn a $50,000 workout bonus in 2011 and a $130,000 workout bonus in 2012. His base salary will be $310,000 in 2009, $395,000 in 2010, $480,000 in 2011, and $565,000 in 2012.

Safe to say he won't see $100,000 of that! :D

[topscribe]

Trading a future #1 pick on a 2nd round player is ridiculous. If he was that good, than McD would have used the 12th or 18th pick.

McDaniels said the Broncos had Smith rated as a #1.

-----

[topscribe]

i dont think anyone was crying about us "throwing" away a 1st. it was because we got a 5'9 corner who cant even break into the line up. i still dont like it nor do i like the mcbath pick.

Okay, you have two positions available: One occupied by highly regarded
Andre Goodman and the other by perennial Pro-Bowler Champ Bailey. Now,
which one are you going to take out to put in rookie Alphonso Smith?



There's this weird idea that deals should be judged on the final results. The truth is that you can do everything right and have it come out or do everything wrong and have it come out right.

You have to give yourself the BEST opportunity to be successful. Every pick has VALUE in and of itself. You must maximize your opportunities to be successful. Yes McDaniels got bailed out by his team's performance, but what if Orton got injured and Simms became the starter... are we still talking about Denver having a pick in the 20s? Does McDaniels have control over that? It's no on both accounts. You judge decisions based on the information available at the time of the decision. If you make good decisions, you will more often than not have good results.

So far most of McDaniels draft strategies appear to be HIGHLY flawed.

1) It is not what he ultimately (in fact) risked for Alphonso Smith, it is what he risked at the time of making the decision.. he risked the pick of a team (8-8 the year before), with a rookie coach, tremendous overhaul of talent at key positions. A reasonably objective person would say there was a fair likelihood of the pick being a high pick in a draft widely expected, at the time, to be VERY deep.

2) So, what did he risk it on? A short CB with average CB speed (4.47) in other words... he doesn't have special speed. He is essentially a quick and ballhawking playmaker who projects to being a good 3rd CB on passing downs. He doesn't really have the physical attributes to excel on the outside. He may very well become a solid NFL player, but the odds are quite stacked against him being a special player with those limitations. In other words, it is risky to trade up for a player who is widely regarded as having that high ceiling of potential with the physical abilities, let alone taking on the added risk of someone with physical limitations as well.

Position Note: CB is also not a trademark position of the 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has routinely field spectacular defenses without the benefit of great CBs, because those defenses were built around being aggressive and creating pressure, which allows CBs to have to cover a shorter time. Granted the Broncos D right now is built more on great pass coverage and getting coverage sacks, but that is not the idea of the 3-4 defense.

An additional problem is that if they were GOOD negotiators, they would have limited which pick it was by giving the Seahawks the lower of the two. McDaniels at his press conference seemed highly unconcerned with pushing for that added protection... it was arrogant and deeply flawed thinking. It is unlikely to have been all that difficult... Seattle just wanted the extra first, but when they smelled desperation by Denver they squeezed us for a little extra. Horrible use of draft value, period, and not very characteristic of Patriots drafting style.

This same issue occurred with the Richard Quinn pick. We gave up A LOT of value, regardless of why. And in the second part, gave it up for a TE with marginal developed pass receiving skills who was joining a team with two good TEs already on the roster.

Basically we risked a lot of value that could have been utilized in THIS draft to better position us for talent or to add additional players in a deep draft. Instead we were aggressive giving up future value (in a manner similar to Washington) for players at non-critical positions. It simply has not turned out well and even if it had, it would have still been a poor use of the draft value we had accumulated in that draft.

Right now, for all that value ... we have Knowshon Moreno's production to show for it so far, which only reinforces the idea that taking on all the risk of a transaction is rarely a good way build increased value. (See the Javon Walker trade for evidence of that... yes good at first but we gave up absurd draft pick value, upfront money on a guy with attitude and injury concerns... it worked ok for 1 year then collapsed as the knee never held out.) This is why good teams take such great care to MAXIMIZE the value (or really MINIMIZE the risk) of their picks. Steelers are notorious for drafting well at the bottom of Round 1 by not forcing positions that have been heavily drafted at that point (taking the #1 TE or #1 OG rather than the 7th rated DT.) That's smart! Hopefully we get smart.

A 40-time from one event can be deceptive. Not only is a time recorded in
track clothes not necessarily reflective of football speed, but many factors
can enter into the results of a given run. Smith has been known to run as fast
as a 4.36. http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=33825&draftyear=2009&genpos=CB

Also, to look at a player's size and judge him from that can also be self-
deceiving. Darrell Green, for instance, was 5'9".

Once again, regarding Quinn, you are taking a TE who simply had not received
a lot of passes in college and interpreted that as having "marginal" skills.
McDaniels came out and said he judged Quinn as being a better receiver than
how he was regarded.

The key to your comment composes the words "so far." This is the first year
for all the rookies selected in the draft. The Ryan Clady's, who set the world
on fire in their first year, come around once in a blue moon. The rest need a
year or two to develop into an NFL talent. That's just the way it is.

Moreover, when you suggested that the Broncos have realized value only from
Moreno, you missed where Ayers has been contributing significantly at his
position, Quinn has been used increasingly as the year has worn on, and
McBath and Bruton have made a significant difference this year. And when
they brought in Ty Law, they replaced Jack Williams, not Alphonso Smith. (It's
interesting to note, BTW, that Williams was timed at 4.32 in the 40. Then why
did they jettison him instead of Smith?)

Really, I trust McDaniels' football mind more than I do yours or mine. We need
to wait until the trial is concluded before we judge the verdict in the case . . .

-----

[T.K.O.]

There's this weird idea that deals should be judged on the final results. The truth is that you can do everything right and have it come out or do everything wrong and have it come out right.

You have to give yourself the BEST opportunity to be successful. Every pick has VALUE in and of itself. You must maximize your opportunities to be successful. Yes McDaniels got bailed out by his team's performance, but what if Orton got injured and Simms became the starter... are we still talking about Denver having a pick in the 20s? Does McDaniels have control over that? It's no on both accounts. You judge decisions based on the information available at the time of the decision. If you make good decisions, you will more often than not have good results.

So far most of McDaniels draft strategies appear to be HIGHLY flawed.

1) It is not what he ultimately (in fact) risked for Alphonso Smith, it is what he risked at the time of making the decision.. he risked the pick of a team (8-8 the year before), with a rookie coach, tremendous overhaul of talent at key positions. A reasonably objective person would say there was a fair likelihood of the pick being a high pick in a draft widely expected, at the time, to be VERY deep.

2) So, what did he risk it on? A short CB with average CB speed (4.47) in other words... he doesn't have special speed. He is essentially a quick and ballhawking playmaker who projects to being a good 3rd CB on passing downs. He doesn't really have the physical attributes to excel on the outside. He may very well become a solid NFL player, but the odds are quite stacked against him being a special player with those limitations. In other words, it is risky to trade up for a player who is widely regarded as having that high ceiling of potential with the physical abilities, let alone taking on the added risk of someone with physical limitations as well.

Position Note: CB is also not a trademark position of the 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has routinely field spectacular defenses without the benefit of great CBs, because those defenses were built around being aggressive and creating pressure, which allows CBs to have to cover a shorter time. Granted the Broncos D right now is built more on great pass coverage and getting coverage sacks, but that is not the idea of the 3-4 defense.

An additional problem is that if they were GOOD negotiators, they would have limited which pick it was by giving the Seahawks the lower of the two. McDaniels at his press conference seemed highly unconcerned with pushing for that added protection... it was arrogant and deeply flawed thinking. It is unlikely to have been all that difficult... Seattle just wanted the extra first, but when they smelled desperation by Denver they squeezed us for a little extra. Horrible use of draft value, period, and not very characteristic of Patriots drafting style.

This same issue occurred with the Richard Quinn pick. We gave up A LOT of value, regardless of why. And in the second part, gave it up for a TE with marginal developed pass receiving skills who was joining a team with two good TEs already on the roster.

Basically we risked a lot of value that could have been utilized in THIS draft to better position us for talent or to add additional players in a deep draft. Instead we were aggressive giving up future value (in a manner similar to Washington) for players at non-critical positions. It simply has not turned out well and even if it had, it would have still been a poor use of the draft value we had accumulated in that draft.

Right now, for all that value ... we have Knowshon Moreno's production to show for it so far, which only reinforces the idea that taking on all the risk of a transaction is rarely a good way build increased value. (See the Javon Walker trade for evidence of that... yes good at first but we gave up absurd draft pick value, upfront money on a guy with attitude and injury concerns... it worked ok for 1 year then collapsed as the knee never held out.) This is why good teams take such great care to MAXIMIZE the value (or really MINIMIZE the risk) of their picks. Steelers are notorious for drafting well at the bottom of Round 1 by not forcing positions that have been heavily drafted at that point (taking the #1 TE or #1 OG rather than the 7th rated DT.) That's smart! Hopefully we get smart.

wow....that really makes no sense at all.lots of words and stuff...but .....tell me why mcD would have been smarter to tell his team they were going to suck and the bears would be awesome and we should keep our pick instead of theirs?
you basically said the head coaches job is to react and make hasty decisions and dont think about the future,if you turn out to be right in the long term it doesnt matter because you might look foolish at first.....hmmmm
sounds like a plan...."for me to poop on !";)

[getagrip]

i hear he wants to come back at a real cheap price.


http://www.bangcartoon.com/2009/pick_sick.htm

Enjoy

[CoachChaz]

Trading a future #1 pick on a 2nd round player is ridiculous. If he was that good, than McD would have used the 12th or 18th pick.

A top RB and a 3-4 LB were higher priorities. We were lucky to be able to get Smith where we got him.

[Lonestar]

Raging about these draft choices at this time is premaure at best.

CB is one of the hardest spots to break into with perhaps only QB harder. They rarely become starters in their rookie year unless it was a posistion of need. We are fortunate to already have Quality starter that will allow him to learn behind those masters and when Law was brought in it gave him another all pro to watch and learn from.

Not sure why folks do not get that.

Ayers is learning a completely new position and IIRC seems to doing OK there making the transition. And it is not like we don't have quality in front of him.

I see this past draft class being one of the best we have seen in along time. 06 would have been great but well......

It is a rare rookie that can come in and be a starter day one. But it appears to me we got 4 maybe 6 in this past draft as they "get it" next year and beyond.


Sent from my BlackBerry Smartphone provided by Alltel.

[BigAL56]

I think we go 1 of 3 options come draft day. Rolando McClain, Taylor Mays, or Jimmy Clausen. I've carefully watched all three of these guys all season.

1. I'll start with Clausen. He's a junior, but he's started for three years, so he's got good experience. Normally, I'd agree and not think that McD would draft a QB in round 1. However, you'd have to look at this fact: He played under Weis, who was McD's mentor. Notre Dame's offensive playbook and terminology is the same as Denvers. Not only did Clausen play in a pro style system for three years, but he played in the same offense that Denver plays in. That's a huge boost. Clausen may not be there at 10, but if he is, I would be McD picks him up. His stats from this year are fantastic, he has a strong arm, he's mobile, and the best two things about him? He's accurate and smart with the football.

Possible downside's to Clausen? He threw to what was arguably the best wideout dou in college football. The question then is, is he actually as good as they made him look? The one thing I will say is that all six of his int's were deflected balls, not bad throws.

2. McClain. I think McD and Nolan would LOVE this guy. He is so smart. He's 260 pounds, but what makes him the player he is, is his awareness. He is never surprised at what goes on. I don't think our LB corps are bad, but to have someone in the middle who knows what the offense is going to do before they do it would be so big. He is the best leader coming out in the draft.

3. Taylor Mays. This kid is a young BDawk. Has fire and can hit with the best of them. He is going to be a really good pro. He's huge and fast and just lays hat. The only downside to him is he's not the best cover guy in the world. But for a SS he should be just fine. Same kind of player as a Lynch and Dawkins...but just might be a harder hitter.

That's my two cents. I would bet we get one of those three guys

Great draft site: http://www.nfldraftdog.com/Mock-Drafts/2010-nfl-mock-draft.html

Check out the video on McClain

[Superchop 7]

Cody, Mays, Spikes.

Any of these guys make your team better.

About as "no-risk" as it gets IMO.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Cody will do us a lot of good playing 12 plays a game. Not.

[CoachChaz]

Cody will do us a lot of good playing 12 plays a game. Not.

Yeah, when I see Cody play more than 2 plays in a row, I'll consider him a prospect

[CoachChaz]

Cody, Mays, Spikes.

Any of these guys make your team better.

About as "no-risk" as it gets IMO.

Cody has ZERO stamina, Spikes disappears and I'd prefer a safety that can do more than just hit people

[KyleOrtonArmySoldier#128]

Cody has ZERO stamina, Spikes disappears and I'd prefer a safety that can do more than just hit people

For dissing dawkins you go straight to hell, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.

[outdoor_miner]

Comments on a few of your points:


2) So, what did he risk it on? A short CB with average CB speed (4.47) in other words... he doesn't have special speed. He is essentially a quick and ballhawking playmaker who projects to being a good 3rd CB on passing downs. He doesn't really have the physical attributes to excel on the outside. He may very well become a solid NFL player, but the odds are quite stacked against him being a special player with those limitations. In other words, it is risky to trade up for a player who is widely regarded as having that high ceiling of potential with the physical abilities, let alone taking on the added risk of someone with physical limitations as well.

They trusted their (and their scouts') evaluation of the player. They had him ranked with a first round grade. You talk a lot about "value". Well, they had the opportunity to secure a player with a first round grade to a second round contract. That is value! They can save millions of dollars (which can be spent elsewhere) to get a guy that they think will be a key piece of the puzzle. And there is no way that they believe he will be a #3 cb long-term (as you suggest). McDaniels said he likes his cornerbacks short, so he clearly does not view Smith's height to be a roadblock. Smith was drafted to be a starting cb for this team in the future.


Position Note: CB is also not a trademark position of the 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has routinely field spectacular defenses without the benefit of great CBs, because those defenses were built around being aggressive and creating pressure, which allows CBs to have to cover a shorter time. Granted the Broncos D right now is built more on great pass coverage and getting coverage sacks, but that is not the idea of the 3-4 defense.

There are many different styles of 3-4. Pittsburgh plays one way. Other teams play differently. There are many 3-4 teams with strong cornerbacks. Nolan even said at the beginning of the season how much he valued having a strong secondary. Green Bay's 3-4 this year has been greatly aided by Charles Woodson. So, to act like having talent at cornerback is unimportant in the 3-4 is silly.


An additional problem is that if they were GOOD negotiators, they would have limited which pick it was by giving the Seahawks the lower of the two. McDaniels at his press conference seemed highly unconcerned with pushing for that added protection... it was arrogant and deeply flawed thinking. It is unlikely to have been all that difficult... Seattle just wanted the extra first, but when they smelled desperation by Denver they squeezed us for a little extra. Horrible use of draft value, period, and not very characteristic of Patriots drafting style.

You assume that Seattle "just wanted the extra first"? That they didn't care which one it was. Isn't that a pretty big assumption? Seattle likely wanted Denver's pick. Teams are "on the clock" for 10 minutes, right? That is not a ton of time for negotiations. Seattle insisted on Denver's pick, and McDaniels was fine with that.

That move showed everyone that McDaniels had confidence in his team. I love that fact. It showed everyone in the organization that he believes in them, and that there would be no excuses for failure this year. Did it ever cross your mind that his unwavering confidence is one of the big reasons that this team has been so successful?

One of the reasons I felt good going into this year was that McD was not setting the team up for failure. Every single thing he said and every single move he made (like the Smith transaction) indicated that he would not accept losing this year. He could have easily used the Cutler situation to lower expectations for himself and the team. It would have been easy to sell a "rebuild" and that it would "take time" for the team to come around. He never once did that. It was always about winning right now. He went out of his way to say he'd never been a part of a losing season, and that he expected this team to win from the get-go. The Smith move fit in perfectly with that. I am certain that this confidence rubbed off on the players, and has absolutely helped this team get to the point where they are today (brink of the playoffs and a chance to win the division).

[weazel]

if the season ended today, we wouldn't have to watch Cleveland on a Thursday night!

[WARHORSE]

Cody has ZERO stamina, Spikes disappears and I'd prefer a safety that can do more than just hit people

Agreed.

Mays plays like a LBer, and hes so stiff now that hes added all that weight, hes useless in coverage.


Eric Berry is da man I would love to see.

Or Suh.

McCoy would be a plus too.

[JDL]

[QUOTE=outdoor_miner;847263]Comments on a few of your points:



They trusted their (and their scouts') evaluation of the player. They had him ranked with a first round grade. You talk a lot about "value". Well, they had the opportunity to secure a player with a first round grade to a second round contract. That is value! They can save millions of dollars (which can be spent elsewhere) to get a guy that they think will be a key piece of the puzzle. And there is no way that they believe he will be a #3 cb long-term (as you suggest). McDaniels said he likes his cornerbacks short, so he clearly does not view Smith's height to be a roadblock. Smith was drafted to be a starting cb for this team in the future.

Look around the league and find out how often they turn out. I've been following this for A LOT of years and it is the same old thing. I remember how hard up people were for guys like Josh Reed when he came out as a WR. Those position skill players generally need one special quality. Either tremendous quickness, speed or size to really excel along with an awful lot of determination. Quite frankly McDaniels seemed more concerned with Smith's ability to make the big play than his true PRO potential, which is evidenced in his later draft picks and his press conference regarding Smith. Collegiate picks are not a good indicator actually of ability to do so in the NFL. Bottom Line: THERE IS NO SERIOUS EVALUATOR THAT WOULD EVER PUT SMITH AS A TOP 15 PLAYER IN A DRAFT...that was what they essentially risked.. maybe they get lucky because league scouts are not always correct (and plenty DIDN'T believe in Smith as a 1st rd talent btw) but why take the risk or at least why not take the added step of protecting the pick by giving the lower of their two first round picks? You may believe a lottery ticket is absolutely the big winner, but knowing there is a significant chance of being wrong, how much of your future do you risk. Me? I am pretty risk adverse and McDaniels clearly is not and that could create quite a problem down the road as we saw with Shanahan taking lot's of risks on guys HIS evaluators said were so good.

There are many different styles of 3-4. Pittsburgh plays one way. Other teams play differently. There are many 3-4 teams with strong cornerbacks. Nolan even said at the beginning of the season how much he valued having a strong secondary. Green Bay's 3-4 this year has been greatly aided by Charles Woodson. So, to act like having talent at cornerback is unimportant in the 3-4 is silly.

I did not say it was unimportant - it is not CRITICAL. Most 3-4 teams play with at most 1 really good cover corner, Steelers have been playing with none this year. Every GREAT player helps a team, but you must have priorities. When you make a move like that - you make it for a Polamalu, it must be for someone who can carry a team and quite frankly we've had one of the very best CBs, but it is too easy to go away from CBs and it really dilutes their effectiveness. That's why their are so few WRs who can truly change games as well. Players who play on the outside routinely get a lot of attention, but it is guys like Haloti Ngata or Ray Lewis or Polamalu up the middle of a defense who really make the difference. There are always exceptions, but generally speaking it is quite true and when you are re-building virtually your entire front 7 plus needing to develop depth at safety, a CB is not going to solve much and as good as our CBs are this year (and they have been excellent) when Dawkins has been out of the game, we've looked like garbage. Proof is in the pudding.

You assume that Seattle "just wanted the extra first"? That they didn't care which one it was. Isn't that a pretty big assumption? Seattle likely wanted Denver's pick. Teams are "on the clock" for 10 minutes, right? That is not a ton of time for negotiations. Seattle insisted on Denver's pick, and McDaniels was fine with that.


Sometimes, you have to be willing to walk away from a deal in order to make the best deals. I negotiate for a living and do it very well. If you go into something desperate (and this is VERY VERY VERY BASIC NEGOTIATIONS 101 - almost the first thing you learn) you will get railroaded. There is an art to it. Denver took ALL the risk in the deal. And that is how you have to look at it... you should NEVER be the side taking on all the risk, because you can't predict how things will go. A classic example of where it doesn't matter but it was nice to have, is when we traded Portis. Quite frankly, it would have been a pretty fair deal straight up, but we got the Redskins to also throw in a 2nd. Ultimately it was basically a throw away, but it gave us added value and protection to ensure that Denver got something out of the deal. Washington took on all the risk. It didn't turn out horrible for them, but they definitely got the worst end of the deal, like they normally do. Teams do it all the time, but if you go back and look at the very best drafting teams in the league... they don't panic, they already know what they are going to do and what everyone else in front of them and behind them is doing. There are some great articles out there you should read of former war room guys, they all basically know what the other teams are going to do. There really aren't too many secrets in league circles. But, the Patriots despite not being a good evaluating team, do get the most value for the picks and so they hit because they accumulate so many chances (which also allows them to take risks like Wilfork who was a HUGE question mark guy when he came out.) Pittsburgh takes the opposite approach, they target certain guys, but they don't force the issue, if the guy is not there, then they take their highest rated player which generally isn't a position of need. They do very well. Generally the teams that are overly aggressive trading up in drafts, end up doing very poorly actually. This should be NFL Draft 101 if I say so myself, Jimmy Johnson was the master of maneuvering. Just because someone is a professional does not mean they are good at their jobs... pro teams GMs often get taken advantage of by better organizations. We appeared after last draft to be much closer to the draft strategies employed by Washington that have led to dreadful drafts than we are to even McDaniels mentors in New England, which is worrisome. It is only one year, but most professionals in the industry were rather appalled by Denver's moves, even if you were not.


That move showed everyone that McDaniels had confidence in his team. I love that fact. It showed everyone in the organization that he believes in them, and that there would be no excuses for failure this year. Did it ever cross your mind that his unwavering confidence is one of the big reasons that this team has been so successful?

Shanahan was equally overconfident/arrogant and it led to dreadful personnel decisions. There is a fine line. It can be a huge benefit or a curse. We are still too early to tell with McDaniels, but if his drafts do not produce (and it is early, but does not look overwhelming to date) than he is going to have the same issues that plagued Shanahan.

One of the reasons I felt good going into this year was that McD was not setting the team up for failure. Every single thing he said and every single move he made (like the Smith transaction) indicated that he would not accept losing this year. He could have easily used the Cutler situation to lower expectations for himself and the team. It would have been easy to sell a "rebuild" and that it would "take time" for the team to come around. He never once did that. It was always about winning right now. He went out of his way to say he'd never been a part of a losing season, and that he expected this team to win from the get-go. The Smith move fit in perfectly with that. I am certain that this confidence rubbed off on the players, and has absolutely helped this team get to the point where they are today (brink of the playoffs and a chance to win the division).

You can do all of that without sacrificing the future. I would rather have someone who was for real great than puffed out his chest and gave off the illusion of greatness. I like the way McDaniels coaches on the field, but his draft moves were objectively amateurish - irrespective of who targeted actually - which probably is representative of booting out the Goodmans in favor of a yes man. The Goodmans were responsible for our good drafting in the past. There are always late bloomers, but at some point those players have to start proving their worth... i have no issue with busts... every organization has them and therein lies the idea of value. Some people think, the ends justify the means... no matter what you give up or what you do, if it works out well, then it was a smart business decision. That isn't reality and people and business men like that do not last. It takes a lot of sophistication and expertise to properly execute an NFL draft. You have to understand what the real value of your picks are (a future pick is not only potentially a player, but trade value to improve another pick - i.e. flexibility.) You must also have patience, you have to take emotion out of the equation, it is easy to fall in love with players come draft time, but rarely are they as good as you build them up in your mind. Go into negotiations knowing you may have to walk away. Denver certainly didn't do that, they took the approach that they would do whatever is necessary to get that player. Well, if you do that too often, you are not going to have successful drafts and they did with Quinn as well. They made some pretty astonishing draft value moves.... If a player is there at their pick and they believe in him, take him, but it was without a doubt a very strange draft as the value given up was certainly opposed to what you would expect, the New England Patriots way.

Again, my issue is not so much the prospects themselves though one could certainly question them, but none of us really know (not even the people doing the drafting) if they will work out. What you can control is properly valuing your draft picks and maximizing what you get for them... most people who cover or have worked in War Rooms for a long time had the same consensus: Denver overpaid. I don't want to see Denver be THAT guy... it is hard to see a team waste their resources. Talk to a Redskin fan sometimes... or hell an Oakland Raiders fan... Speed Speed Speed... ya you may get Scrabble but you may get stone hands Heyward-Bey .... ugh.

[CoachChaz]

Agreed.

Mays plays like a LBer, and hes so stiff now that hes added all that weight, hes useless in coverage.


Eric Berry is da man I would love to see.

Or Suh.

McCoy would be a plus too.

Suh is obviously the top defensive player in the draft. I'd love to put him in a DE spot in our 3-4.

Berry is a stud...I wouldnt be disappointed with him either...if we didnt already draft 2 safeties last year.

I'll be surprised if Mays is a first round pick. He should have entered the draft last year.

[SOCALORADO.]

Suh is obviously the top defensive player in the draft. I'd love to put him in a DE spot in our 3-4.

Berry is a stud...I wouldnt be disappointed with him either...if we didnt already draft 2 safeties last year.

I'll be surprised if Mays is a first round pick. He should have entered the draft last year.

Cody is strictly a 2 down player apparently. Oh well. So much for a dominating NT.
Spikes has character concerns. Anyone who would try to gouge out your eyes is more than likely not making the most sound, mature and responsible decisions in his private life. I would hope he is ivestigated and has an extensive background before any team would draft him.
Mays is WAAAAAAAAY overrated. He was overrated last year, and he hasnt improved at all since. Horrible in coverage, late to make plays, he has horrible decision making skills. DEN already has an exact clone of Mays.. His name is Josh Barrett.
To me the most "NFL ready" players are
Roland McLain ILB BAMA
Ndamukong Suh DE NEB
Eric Berry S TENN
Dan Williams NT TENN
Gerald McCoy DT OK

And please, PLEASE MCD, DONT TAKE little colt McCoy!!! UGh, he absolutely blows dog d!ck. Undersized, weak armed Qb. Great. Just what DEN does NOT need. Jake Plummer all over again.

As for the QBs,
If Ryan Mallett comes out, hes a slam dunk. 6'6" 250 with a rocket arm, hes raw, but his pro potential is off the charts.
Jevan Snead Ole Miss. Has all the tools and a huge arm as well, but his consistency is an issue. Of course MCD has a knack for taking these types and making them solid starters.
Pat Devlin DEL. Again HUGE rocket arm. Good numbers at DEL but he may not come out this year, but if he does he should be scopped up quick. ROCKET ARM. Prototypical QB. 6'4" 225 looks very much like Jay Cutler (hopefully without the attitude)
**SLEEPER**
Sean Canfield ORE ST
This guy has all the tools. 6'4" 220, accurate. Good Arm. no mobility, but a soild pocket passer. Could be a steal in the late 3rd, or 4th round somewhere.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Suh would be the best option for us, but we do not have a chance in Hell of getting him. McCoy (DT, Oklahoma) is another guy I love, but he'd have to flip to end with us. I'm not sure if that is how you get the best production out of him.

[CoachChaz]

Suh is a top 5 pick. Forget about adding him.

[outdoor_miner]

Again, my issue is not so much the prospects themselves though one could certainly question them, but none of us really know (not even the people doing the drafting) if they will work out. What you can control is properly valuing your draft picks and maximizing what you get for them... most people who cover or have worked in War Rooms for a long time had the same consensus: Denver overpaid. I don't want to see Denver be THAT guy... it is hard to see a team waste their resources. Talk to a Redskin fan sometimes... or hell an Oakland Raiders fan... Speed Speed Speed... ya you may get Scrabble but you may get stone hands Heyward-Bey .... ugh.

Good post with a lot of excellent points - I don't have time to respond to it all, but I'll say a few things.

1. I actually agree with you that the soundness of the move should not necessarily be determined by the results. With that being said - I think people look at the draft wrong sometimes. I don't think the point is to necessarily hit a "home run" with every pick. You need to acquire good, solid players throughout the draft. Smith does not need to be some super-star. If he becomes a very good starting cornerback, he is a good pick in my opinion. They had him rated as the #1 cornerback in the draft, and they made the move to get him. And as I mentioned above, the money aspect is huge. The Broncos have some very important players to re-sign this year. Players that have proven their worth in the NFL. With Marshall, Doom, Orton, Kuper, and Scheffler all needing to be paid, I don't think that the Broncos could have paid them all and also paid two first round draft picks. I don't think that's being "cheap". It is being smart with allocating your money. Would you rather have Alphonso Smith and Chris Kuper, or the #15 pick in this year's draft?

2. I can see what you're saying about negotiating for the lower of the two picks. But again, I get the feeling Seattle would not accept that, and yes, I do believe that finances came into the decision. To reiterate, I personally have no problem with that (as long as the money is spent elsewhere, and Bowlen has always been willing to spend). They did not want two first round picks next year. They loved the player, they wanted to free up money for this offseason, and McDaniels believed in his team. And I still like the message it sent. You mentioned Shanahan's arrogance, but the Broncos rode that arrogance to two Super Bowls. New England rode Belicheck's to three. Yes, there is a fine line, but there is no doubt in my mind that McDaniel's confidence has greatly contributed to the team's success. I've never seen McDaniels as "puffing out his chest" as you said. In fact, he is quite self-deprecating in interviews, and seems (to me) to have a true sense of humility. However, he needs to be confident in order to succeed, and I'm sure he is.

3. I admit that I am partially biased in this, as I can't stand the "group think" mentality that is so pervasive in the NFL and the media coverage. If someone does things differently, he is crucified. Once McDaniels traded Cutler, he was painted as the biggest moron on the planet. He was an "idiot" for drafting Moreno, for trading a "sure fire Top 10 pick" for Smith, for starting Kyle Orton, for not doing enough on the D-Line, for signing Buckhalter & Jordan, etc etc etc. So, my defense of the Smith move probably is colored by that. McDaniels had a plan, it is working (so far), and I'm loving it. Virtually all of the above moves have worked out great for Denver (the Smith pick being the most questionable at this time).

4. I do actually have a bit of a problem with the Quinn move. BUT - I don't have a problem with the actual trade. They sent two 3rds for a 2nd and 4th. Remember, they also got the pick they used for Seth Olsen in the deal. That is not awful value. But, clearly they showed a lack of patience on a guy that probably would have been there in the 3rd (although, it's tough to say for sure). The trade value was not bad, it was the trade value when considering who they made the move for.

5. I like making lists. :)

[topscribe]

The Goodmans were responsible for our good drafting in the past.


Good drafting in the past?

Surely, you jest . . .

------

[WARHORSE]

Suh is obviously the top defensive player in the draft. I'd love to put him in a DE spot in our 3-4.

Berry is a stud...I wouldnt be disappointed with him either...if we didnt already draft 2 safeties last year.

I'll be surprised if Mays is a first round pick. He should have entered the draft last year.


I agree at this point totally. By the time Mays comes out of the senior bowl and combine, his stock will plummet imo.

Suh is a Richard Seymore type. Gotta love that. (cept for the hair pullin)

[WARHORSE]

[QUOTE=outdoor_miner;847263]Comments on a few of your points:



They trusted their (and their scouts') evaluation of the player. They had him ranked with a first round grade. You talk a lot about "value". Well, they had the opportunity to secure a player with a first round grade to a second round contract. That is value! They can save millions of dollars (which can be spent elsewhere) to get a guy that they think will be a key piece of the puzzle. And there is no way that they believe he will be a #3 cb long-term (as you suggest). McDaniels said he likes his cornerbacks short, so he clearly does not view Smith's height to be a roadblock. Smith was drafted to be a starting cb for this team in the future.

Look around the league and find out how often they turn out. I've been following this for A LOT of years and it is the same old thing. I remember how hard up people were for guys like Josh Reed when he came out as a WR. Those position skill players generally need one special quality. Either tremendous quickness, speed or size to really excel along with an awful lot of determination. Quite frankly McDaniels seemed more concerned with Smith's ability to make the big play than his true PRO potential, which is evidenced in his later draft picks and his press conference regarding Smith. Collegiate picks are not a good indicator actually of ability to do so in the NFL. Bottom Line: THERE IS NO SERIOUS EVALUATOR THAT WOULD EVER PUT SMITH AS A TOP 15 PLAYER IN A DRAFT...that was what they essentially risked.. maybe they get lucky because league scouts are not always correct (and plenty DIDN'T believe in Smith as a 1st rd talent btw) but why take the risk or at least why not take the added step of protecting the pick by giving the lower of their two first round picks? You may believe a lottery ticket is absolutely the big winner, but knowing there is a significant chance of being wrong, how much of your future do you risk. Me? I am pretty risk adverse and McDaniels clearly is not and that could create quite a problem down the road as we saw with Shanahan taking lot's of risks on guys HIS evaluators said were so good.

There are many different styles of 3-4. Pittsburgh plays one way. Other teams play differently. There are many 3-4 teams with strong cornerbacks. Nolan even said at the beginning of the season how much he valued having a strong secondary. Green Bay's 3-4 this year has been greatly aided by Charles Woodson. So, to act like having talent at cornerback is unimportant in the 3-4 is silly.

I did not say it was unimportant - it is not CRITICAL. Most 3-4 teams play with at most 1 really good cover corner, Steelers have been playing with none this year. Every GREAT player helps a team, but you must have priorities. When you make a move like that - you make it for a Polamalu, it must be for someone who can carry a team and quite frankly we've had one of the very best CBs, but it is too easy to go away from CBs and it really dilutes their effectiveness. That's why their are so few WRs who can truly change games as well. Players who play on the outside routinely get a lot of attention, but it is guys like Haloti Ngata or Ray Lewis or Polamalu up the middle of a defense who really make the difference. There are always exceptions, but generally speaking it is quite true and when you are re-building virtually your entire front 7 plus needing to develop depth at safety, a CB is not going to solve much and as good as our CBs are this year (and they have been excellent) when Dawkins has been out of the game, we've looked like garbage. Proof is in the pudding.

You assume that Seattle "just wanted the extra first"? That they didn't care which one it was. Isn't that a pretty big assumption? Seattle likely wanted Denver's pick. Teams are "on the clock" for 10 minutes, right? That is not a ton of time for negotiations. Seattle insisted on Denver's pick, and McDaniels was fine with that.


Sometimes, you have to be willing to walk away from a deal in order to make the best deals. I negotiate for a living and do it very well. If you go into something desperate (and this is VERY VERY VERY BASIC NEGOTIATIONS 101 - almost the first thing you learn) you will get railroaded. There is an art to it. Denver took ALL the risk in the deal. And that is how you have to look at it... you should NEVER be the side taking on all the risk, because you can't predict how things will go. A classic example of where it doesn't matter but it was nice to have, is when we traded Portis. Quite frankly, it would have been a pretty fair deal straight up, but we got the Redskins to also throw in a 2nd. Ultimately it was basically a throw away, but it gave us added value and protection to ensure that Denver got something out of the deal. Washington took on all the risk. It didn't turn out horrible for them, but they definitely got the worst end of the deal, like they normally do. Teams do it all the time, but if you go back and look at the very best drafting teams in the league... they don't panic, they already know what they are going to do and what everyone else in front of them and behind them is doing. There are some great articles out there you should read of former war room guys, they all basically know what the other teams are going to do. There really aren't too many secrets in league circles. But, the Patriots despite not being a good evaluating team, do get the most value for the picks and so they hit because they accumulate so many chances (which also allows them to take risks like Wilfork who was a HUGE question mark guy when he came out.) Pittsburgh takes the opposite approach, they target certain guys, but they don't force the issue, if the guy is not there, then they take their highest rated player which generally isn't a position of need. They do very well. Generally the teams that are overly aggressive trading up in drafts, end up doing very poorly actually. This should be NFL Draft 101 if I say so myself, Jimmy Johnson was the master of maneuvering. Just because someone is a professional does not mean they are good at their jobs... pro teams GMs often get taken advantage of by better organizations. We appeared after last draft to be much closer to the draft strategies employed by Washington that have led to dreadful drafts than we are to even McDaniels mentors in New England, which is worrisome. It is only one year, but most professionals in the industry were rather appalled by Denver's moves, even if you were not.


That move showed everyone that McDaniels had confidence in his team. I love that fact. It showed everyone in the organization that he believes in them, and that there would be no excuses for failure this year. Did it ever cross your mind that his unwavering confidence is one of the big reasons that this team has been so successful?

Shanahan was equally overconfident/arrogant and it led to dreadful personnel decisions. There is a fine line. It can be a huge benefit or a curse. We are still too early to tell with McDaniels, but if his drafts do not produce (and it is early, but does not look overwhelming to date) than he is going to have the same issues that plagued Shanahan.

One of the reasons I felt good going into this year was that McD was not setting the team up for failure. Every single thing he said and every single move he made (like the Smith transaction) indicated that he would not accept losing this year. He could have easily used the Cutler situation to lower expectations for himself and the team. It would have been easy to sell a "rebuild" and that it would "take time" for the team to come around. He never once did that. It was always about winning right now. He went out of his way to say he'd never been a part of a losing season, and that he expected this team to win from the get-go. The Smith move fit in perfectly with that. I am certain that this confidence rubbed off on the players, and has absolutely helped this team get to the point where they are today (brink of the playoffs and a chance to win the division).

You can do all of that without sacrificing the future. I would rather have someone who was for real great than puffed out his chest and gave off the illusion of greatness. I like the way McDaniels coaches on the field, but his draft moves were objectively amateurish - irrespective of who targeted actually - which probably is representative of booting out the Goodmans in favor of a yes man. The Goodmans were responsible for our good drafting in the past. There are always late bloomers, but at some point those players have to start proving their worth... i have no issue with busts... every organization has them and therein lies the idea of value. Some people think, the ends justify the means... no matter what you give up or what you do, if it works out well, then it was a smart business decision. That isn't reality and people and business men like that do not last. It takes a lot of sophistication and expertise to properly execute an NFL draft. You have to understand what the real value of your picks are (a future pick is not only potentially a player, but trade value to improve another pick - i.e. flexibility.) You must also have patience, you have to take emotion out of the equation, it is easy to fall in love with players come draft time, but rarely are they as good as you build them up in your mind. Go into negotiations knowing you may have to walk away. Denver certainly didn't do that, they took the approach that they would do whatever is necessary to get that player. Well, if you do that too often, you are not going to have successful drafts and they did with Quinn as well. They made some pretty astonishing draft value moves.... If a player is there at their pick and they believe in him, take him, but it was without a doubt a very strange draft as the value given up was certainly opposed to what you would expect, the New England Patriots way.

Again, my issue is not so much the prospects themselves though one could certainly question them, but none of us really know (not even the people doing the drafting) if they will work out. What you can control is properly valuing your draft picks and maximizing what you get for them... most people who cover or have worked in War Rooms for a long time had the same consensus: Denver overpaid. I don't want to see Denver be THAT guy... it is hard to see a team waste their resources. Talk to a Redskin fan sometimes... or hell an Oakland Raiders fan... Speed Speed Speed... ya you may get Scrabble but you may get stone hands Heyward-Bey .... ugh.


As Ive said before, I dont believe Denver wanted to pay four first round picks this year and next, AND sign Orton, Marshall, Doom, Kuper and Scheff.

There is an overall picture being painted here, and alot of it is bang for your buck. New England loves second rounders.

If Smith ends up paying off, Denver did not overpay. Everything ends up being relevant to where Smith ultimately ends up as a player. He wont be the first CB to struggle in his first year......................playing behind Champ and Hill.

Also, after playing at the number one CB position in college, having to come play NFL calibre slot receivers can be a huge awakening.

Ultimately, if they contribute in some way, thats better than a wasted pick.

Count me as one who thinks our rookies will end up being pretty good.