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View Full Version : Week 6 playoff forecast: ‘Phins make rapid climb



Lonestar
10-14-2009, 03:42 PM
By Stephen Oh, AccuScore
1 hour, 41 minutes ago
Simulation based forecasting & methodology: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.


AFC


There were major playoff probability shifts this week, none more significant than the Bengals’ leap in the rankings and Baltimore’s large decline. If Baltimore had beaten the Bengals at home, its probability would not have increased much. However, by losing a game at home to a division rival, its chances dropped from first to third in the division. The Bengals benefited massively, improving their playoff chances to nearly 69 percent. The Bengals have won three games they were heavy underdogs in and the rest of their schedule has a number of teams they are supposed to beat. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals stand up to the pressure of being favored. Pittsburgh saw its chances increase because 1) it beat Detroit and Baltimore lost and 2) its running game has received a tremendous boost with the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall(notes).

The Broncos impressively racked up another win, pushing their playoff probability up to 76 percent. The pressure is squarely on the Chargers to win on Monday night. If the Broncos win and their defense once again holds a potent offense to less than 21 points, they will not only have a substantial lead in the division, but they will also have the statistical proof that their defense is indeed No. 1 in the league right now.

The Colts already have a stranglehold on the AFC South. Every other team lost this week and the Colts amazingly have a 99.6 percent chance of winning the AFC South. In the preseason this was the most competitive division in the AFC. Right now the only real chance the Colts have of slipping is if Peyton Manning(notes) suffered a severe injury. Their high chances are not just due to being undefeated, it has just as much to do with the fact that their passing offense is so good and the Achilles heel of many upcoming opponents is pass defense.

The Dolphins were actually impressive for an 0-3 team and after two big division wins where they scored more than 30 points, they are now moving rapidly up the AFC East rankings. By beating the Jets, they actually have a slightly higher probability of winning the division despite of being one game behind New York. The Patriots are still projected to win the AFC East despite losing to Denver and seeing their playoff probability plummet more than 20 percent.


AFC Week 5 review Playoff Perc. chance

Team Wk 5 Wk 6 Perc. diff. Win div.
Cincinnati Bengals 26.4% 68.7% 42.3% 34.3%
Miami Dolphins 11.1% 45.1% 34.0% 31.8%
Denver Broncos 65.6% 76.4% 10.7% 60.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers 63.8% 74.0% 10.2% 38.5%
Indianapolis Colts 98.8% 99.9% 1.1% 99.6%
Cleveland Browns 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Titans 1.1% 0.7% -0.4% 0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs 0.8% 0.1% -0.7% 0.1%
Oakland Raiders 1.0% 0.2% -0.8% 0.1%
Buffalo Bills 5.4% 0.6% -4.8% 0.3%
Houston Texans 11.4% 5.7% -5.7% 0.2%
San Diego Chargers 67.0% 58.6% -8.3% 39.2%
New York Jets 55.8% 44.0% -11.8% 28.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars 28.5% 12.7% -15.8% 0.2%
New England Patriots 75.5% 53.1% -22.4% 39.0%
Baltimore Ravens 87.7% 60.2% -27.6% 27.2%


NFC


The Falcons offense exploded and the defense was impressive in their win over San Francisco. While New Orleans is still in control of the NFC South, Atlanta is now a solid fourth in the NFC in overall playoff probability. Last year’s NFC South champ, Carolina, beat Washington by three points but actually saw its already slim playoff probability decline slightly as there is little statistical proof that this team can return to being an elite team.

The disappointing 49ers saw the biggest drop in playoff probability – a whopping 45.5 percentage points. The combination of a home loss, Arizona’s victory, and Seattle’s impressive win all took their toll on San Francisco. The Niners would not have dropped as significantly if this were a close game. However, when you allow 45 points and struggle against both the pass and run, it has a negative impact on the forecasted performance the rest of the season. Seemingly overnight, the NFC West is once again a highly competitive three-team race.

There were not many major shifts in the NFC East as all three contenders (the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles) won games they were expected to win. As a result, all three teams saw their playoff probabilities improve slightly. Washington has had a very easy schedule with just one quality opponent but still only has a 2-3 record. Washington is favored next week vs. Kansas City. After that, the Redskins are expected to be favored in only one game the rest of the season.

The NFC North was relatively quiet with Chicago and Green Bay both on bye weeks and Detroit losing to Pittsburgh, as expected.


NFC Week 5 review Playoff Perc. chance

Team Wk 5 Wk 6 Perc. diff. Win div.
Atlanta Falcons 39.6% 66.2% 26.6% 30.0%
Seattle Seahawks 4.5% 28.1% 23.5% 27.1%
Arizona Cardinals 27.1% 44.4% 17.3% 43.2%
Dallas Cowboys 26.5% 31.1% 4.6% 8.4%
Philadelphia Eagles 57.8% 62.2% 4.4% 34.6%
New York Giants 81.8% 83.3% 1.5% 56.9%
St. Louis Ram 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Detroit Lions 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota Vikings 93.1% 91.5% -1.6% 80.0%
Carolina Panthers 2.1% 0.4% -1.6% 0.2%
Washington Redskins 4.3% 0.6% -3.6% 0.1%
New Orleans Saints 94.6% 90.3% -4.3% 69.9%
Green Bay Packers 44.7% 36.5% -8.1% 8.9%
Chicago Bears 48.0% 34.7% -13.3% 11.1%
San Francisco 49ers 76.1% 30.6% -45.5% 29.7%

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffshifts101409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

T.K.O.
10-14-2009, 04:07 PM
thats all good stuff....but the same system picked us to lose to dallas and new england.
probabilities dont mean much in the nfl ;)

i do know if we beat s.d. history shows that we have a 93% chance to make the playoffs !!!!!:elefant:

Bronco Warrior
10-14-2009, 08:57 PM
How do we have a better ecord and bigger lead in our division than NewEngland and Pitt but have a lower percentage chance of playoff? :confused: