abennink
10-10-2009, 10:26 PM
Hello Broncos fans,
Like the board. I'm a big Pats fan and I went to school in ATL so I watched a lot of Knowshon. In college he was so obviously the best running back his year that in comparing him to other recent top RB picks, I remember thinking that he was a better prospect than Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden out of college and was a more complete (but with less upside) RB than AP coming out, considering pass catching and blocking and combine stuff like bench reps and 3 cone.
After watching the beginning of each guy's pro career, that's kind of a no-brainer now isn't it? Well, tomorrow, the Pats and Broncos meet, and Knowshon Moreno is getting most of the carries against my favorite team. And I think he's going to break out. What do you think?
Well, since this is a messageboard and not an actual conversation, I'm going to interrupt that question and try to explain why I think this is the case while I draw giant squiggles on a TV screen and spill mustard on my red tie and convince you it's lime green.
I see you guys relying heavily on the running game tomorrow, and yes, I know that sounds patently obvious. But from what I've seen of the Broncos, they look like a team that can force the game into Wes Welker's hands. With Bailey and Dawkins, Dumerville and Ayers, and your LBs, you should be able to contain Moss, limit Brady, and neutralize our RBs unless Sammy Morris shows up. But with your rook CB nursing his ankle I think, the Pats should have an advantage in the short passing game and be able to adapt if you adapt to stop it. Relying on short passes like this will eat up the clock and slow the game down when we are on offense, which hasn't happened much this year, a fact that is VITAL when analyzing the game.
On paper, the Pats are I believe top 10 in rushing yards allowed, yet bottom 10 in YPC, allowing 4.5, although Ray Rice singlehandedly inflated it. How is it that teams are experiencing success with the run but are rarely using it, even teams like Baltimore? Because the Patriots, even rusty, have been able to win TOP and passing yardage every week, run clock, and usually underperform in the Red Zone yet score enough to keep the other team passing. The Jets are the only team to beat us, and they have Champ Bailey 2.0 and a mean pass rush, like the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, they lack a stud RB.
I think you guys are better than the Jets offensively and comparable defensively. I don't think you can look at the Pats stats and use them to analyze this game, I think the Jets stats work better. And the Jets stats say that you can contain Brady, Moss and the running game enough to affect us more than only a handful of other teams. They say you can keep the game close. And if you can keep the game close, you have the luxury of matching a super talented, though young back, against a D allowing 4.5 YPC.
The secondary reason I think this will happen is because the Patriots secondary is underrated. I don't think I've seen a Pats secondary this good since Ty Law left town (Edit: Secondary, secondary). We lost Asante's interceptions and Rodney's hard hits, but we gained corners that don't gamble and can stay with a legit #1 and safeties that can cover the whole field on the pass and greatly assist our depleted LBs with the run. But as good as they've been vs. the run, the fact is that if you have a good run defense, it's the LBs job to handle that. The Pats LBs, who due to injury are forced to frequently play out of their natural positions, have not been handling it at an elite level.
So I think it comes down to Moreno. If the Pats don't look as confused as in week 2, they can score enough on offense that Orton will not be able to pass the Broncos to victory. They will need to accept that Orton isn't Brady, but that Maroney isn't Moreno, and that unlike the Broncos defense, this defense is statistically susceptible to the run.
If anyone read all this, thank you. If anyone who read all this wishes they had 10 minutes of their life back, I understand. If anyone who reads all this wonders what the hell is wrong with me, I would say many things, but ultimately I would try to use gambling and fantasy football to defend myself.
Like the board. I'm a big Pats fan and I went to school in ATL so I watched a lot of Knowshon. In college he was so obviously the best running back his year that in comparing him to other recent top RB picks, I remember thinking that he was a better prospect than Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden out of college and was a more complete (but with less upside) RB than AP coming out, considering pass catching and blocking and combine stuff like bench reps and 3 cone.
After watching the beginning of each guy's pro career, that's kind of a no-brainer now isn't it? Well, tomorrow, the Pats and Broncos meet, and Knowshon Moreno is getting most of the carries against my favorite team. And I think he's going to break out. What do you think?
Well, since this is a messageboard and not an actual conversation, I'm going to interrupt that question and try to explain why I think this is the case while I draw giant squiggles on a TV screen and spill mustard on my red tie and convince you it's lime green.
I see you guys relying heavily on the running game tomorrow, and yes, I know that sounds patently obvious. But from what I've seen of the Broncos, they look like a team that can force the game into Wes Welker's hands. With Bailey and Dawkins, Dumerville and Ayers, and your LBs, you should be able to contain Moss, limit Brady, and neutralize our RBs unless Sammy Morris shows up. But with your rook CB nursing his ankle I think, the Pats should have an advantage in the short passing game and be able to adapt if you adapt to stop it. Relying on short passes like this will eat up the clock and slow the game down when we are on offense, which hasn't happened much this year, a fact that is VITAL when analyzing the game.
On paper, the Pats are I believe top 10 in rushing yards allowed, yet bottom 10 in YPC, allowing 4.5, although Ray Rice singlehandedly inflated it. How is it that teams are experiencing success with the run but are rarely using it, even teams like Baltimore? Because the Patriots, even rusty, have been able to win TOP and passing yardage every week, run clock, and usually underperform in the Red Zone yet score enough to keep the other team passing. The Jets are the only team to beat us, and they have Champ Bailey 2.0 and a mean pass rush, like the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, they lack a stud RB.
I think you guys are better than the Jets offensively and comparable defensively. I don't think you can look at the Pats stats and use them to analyze this game, I think the Jets stats work better. And the Jets stats say that you can contain Brady, Moss and the running game enough to affect us more than only a handful of other teams. They say you can keep the game close. And if you can keep the game close, you have the luxury of matching a super talented, though young back, against a D allowing 4.5 YPC.
The secondary reason I think this will happen is because the Patriots secondary is underrated. I don't think I've seen a Pats secondary this good since Ty Law left town (Edit: Secondary, secondary). We lost Asante's interceptions and Rodney's hard hits, but we gained corners that don't gamble and can stay with a legit #1 and safeties that can cover the whole field on the pass and greatly assist our depleted LBs with the run. But as good as they've been vs. the run, the fact is that if you have a good run defense, it's the LBs job to handle that. The Pats LBs, who due to injury are forced to frequently play out of their natural positions, have not been handling it at an elite level.
So I think it comes down to Moreno. If the Pats don't look as confused as in week 2, they can score enough on offense that Orton will not be able to pass the Broncos to victory. They will need to accept that Orton isn't Brady, but that Maroney isn't Moreno, and that unlike the Broncos defense, this defense is statistically susceptible to the run.
If anyone read all this, thank you. If anyone who read all this wishes they had 10 minutes of their life back, I understand. If anyone who reads all this wonders what the hell is wrong with me, I would say many things, but ultimately I would try to use gambling and fantasy football to defend myself.