Spiritguy
10-09-2009, 10:15 AM
If your friendly neighborhood Broncos fan seems disoriented this week, you'll have to forgive him.
There's the sudden shock of an unexpected 4-0 start, the budding pangs of puppy love for Josh McDaniels, the joy of this week's orange-splashed Sports Illustrated cover, (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/11292/index.htm?eref=sisf) and, of course, the famously thin Mile High air.
But Broncos fans are also suffering from the disorienting statistical whiplash caused by the sudden u-turn of the Denver defense that was one of the worst units in football last year. This year it's one of the best.
You probably know the basics:
• The 2008 Broncos surrendered 374.6 yards per game (29th overall); the 2009 Broncos surrender 239.8 YPG (2nd)
• The 2008 Broncos surrendered 28.0 points per game (30th); the 2009 Broncos surrender 6.5 PPG (1st)
But the power of the Denver defense is even more impressive when viewed through the pigskin periscope of the Quality Stats (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Category/2_Quality_Stats.html) that we use to rate teams at ColdHardFootballFacts.com (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/). Quality Stats are those indicators that have a direct correlation to team-wide success.
Here are five that highlight in no uncertain terms the dramatic improvement of the Denver D:
1. Defensive Hog Index (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html) -- This is our measure of each team's defensive front. And it offers very, very encouraging news for the Broncos, for there is no better indicator of postseason success in sports over the past two years.
• The 2008 Broncos ranked 31st in this indicator, ahead of only the pathetic Chiefs.
• The 2009 Broncos rank 1st in this indicator, ahead of everybody.
ColdHardFootballFacts.com contributor Jonathan Comey developed the Defensive Hog Index concept in 2006 and, after some tweaking for 2007, it's proven a huge indicator of success.
• The 2007 Giants finished No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They won the Super Bowl.
• The 2008 Steelers finished No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They won the Super Bowl.
• The 2009 Broncos, for now anyway, rank No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They're 4-0.
Just as impressively, over the past two years, teams with the better Defensive Hogs are 20-2 in postseason games.
2. Negative pass plays (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html) -- Forcing opposing passers into critical mistakes such as sacks and interceptions is a huge indicator of team success. Consider the impact of interceptions alone: each pick by a defense increases that team's chances of victory by about 20 percentage points. It's a huge play. And the Broncos have suddenly blossomed in this area.
• The 2008 Broncos ranked 30th in this indicator, forcing opponents into negative pass plays on just 6.1 percent of drop-backs.
• The 2009 Broncos rank 2nd in this indicator, forcing opponents into negative pass plays on 14.8 percent of drop-backs.
The other 3 indicators and more are at the link.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/kerry_byrne/10/08/broncos.defense/index.html
There's the sudden shock of an unexpected 4-0 start, the budding pangs of puppy love for Josh McDaniels, the joy of this week's orange-splashed Sports Illustrated cover, (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/11292/index.htm?eref=sisf) and, of course, the famously thin Mile High air.
But Broncos fans are also suffering from the disorienting statistical whiplash caused by the sudden u-turn of the Denver defense that was one of the worst units in football last year. This year it's one of the best.
You probably know the basics:
• The 2008 Broncos surrendered 374.6 yards per game (29th overall); the 2009 Broncos surrender 239.8 YPG (2nd)
• The 2008 Broncos surrendered 28.0 points per game (30th); the 2009 Broncos surrender 6.5 PPG (1st)
But the power of the Denver defense is even more impressive when viewed through the pigskin periscope of the Quality Stats (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Category/2_Quality_Stats.html) that we use to rate teams at ColdHardFootballFacts.com (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/). Quality Stats are those indicators that have a direct correlation to team-wide success.
Here are five that highlight in no uncertain terms the dramatic improvement of the Denver D:
1. Defensive Hog Index (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html) -- This is our measure of each team's defensive front. And it offers very, very encouraging news for the Broncos, for there is no better indicator of postseason success in sports over the past two years.
• The 2008 Broncos ranked 31st in this indicator, ahead of only the pathetic Chiefs.
• The 2009 Broncos rank 1st in this indicator, ahead of everybody.
ColdHardFootballFacts.com contributor Jonathan Comey developed the Defensive Hog Index concept in 2006 and, after some tweaking for 2007, it's proven a huge indicator of success.
• The 2007 Giants finished No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They won the Super Bowl.
• The 2008 Steelers finished No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They won the Super Bowl.
• The 2009 Broncos, for now anyway, rank No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. They're 4-0.
Just as impressively, over the past two years, teams with the better Defensive Hogs are 20-2 in postseason games.
2. Negative pass plays (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html) -- Forcing opposing passers into critical mistakes such as sacks and interceptions is a huge indicator of team success. Consider the impact of interceptions alone: each pick by a defense increases that team's chances of victory by about 20 percentage points. It's a huge play. And the Broncos have suddenly blossomed in this area.
• The 2008 Broncos ranked 30th in this indicator, forcing opponents into negative pass plays on just 6.1 percent of drop-backs.
• The 2009 Broncos rank 2nd in this indicator, forcing opponents into negative pass plays on 14.8 percent of drop-backs.
The other 3 indicators and more are at the link.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/kerry_byrne/10/08/broncos.defense/index.html