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Dean
10-02-2009, 06:12 AM
This rating is purported to be statistics based.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Category/10_Power_Rankings.html

October 02 2009





Power Rankings: dizzy from the coaching carousel
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 30, 2009


By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Commissioner of Power and Light

With a huge crop of new coaches, you expect a little variance in their early performances. Some will bring new enthusiasm. Some will struggle to fix prior mistakes.

But boy, has it been feast or famine so far.

The Jets and Broncos love their new guys. Rex Ryan has brought in a new culture to New York, and so has Josh McDaniels to Denver. They're both undefeated and are the two surprise teams of the league.

However, things couldn't possibly be worse for the four new coaches occupying the bottom four spots in this week's rankings.

With the way Cleveland has played, Eric Mangini must wonder if he can line up a good college job for 2010. If there's a caveat, it's that they've easily played the toughest schedule of anyone in the NFL so far (Minnesota, Baltimore and Denver, a combined 9-0).

In Kansas City, Todd Haley has two blowout losses to good teams and one collar-tightening loss to the Raiders – in a game where the Chiefs outgained Oakland 409-166.

Steve Spagnuolo's Rams look as inept as they did a year ago; they're being outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game, which is even worse than their pathetic -14.6 PPG in 2008.

Raheem Morris took over a 9-7 Bucs team that almost made the playoffs, cleaned house, and now can't do anything right. Last time we checked, Tampa teams didn't allow 6.6 yards per play.

All in all, six of the bottom seven teams are coached by new guys, and the only one inspiring enthusiasm is Jim Schwartz in Detroit – a place where one win is like 10 wins in a real NFL town. Hope these guys didn't buy million-dollar homes in their new cities (or, in Schwartz's case, a $100,000 home in Detroit).

Our top six teams all won in Week 3, but there was some shuffling of the order. Any of these top six could lay a claim to the No.1 spot - including Denver, which has been criminally underrated thus far despite an epic defensive run.

But No. 1 stays the same – the Giants, who have displayed the most balance to go with three impressive wins.

1. N.Y. GIANTS (3-0). Last week: 24-0 win at Tampa Bay. The Giants are in the top six in five major stat categories: scoring offense, scoring defense, turnover margin, total offense and total defense. Their win over Tampa Sunday was one of the most lopsided in recent memory: they outgained the Bucs 397-86.

2. NEW ORLEANS (3-0). Last week: 27-7 win at Buffalo. The Unsung Hero award should go to offensive line coach Aaron Cromer. With Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown out, the Saints should be struggling. Instead, the first-year O-line coach has plugged in Jermon Bushrod and they haven't skipped a beat - they've allowed four sacks in 101 dropbacks and the running game averages 5.02 YPA. The Saints are No. 1 on the Offensive Hog Index.

3. BALTIMORE (3-0). Last week: 34-3 win vs. Cleveland. Life is grand in Baltimore, where the Ravens average 1.3 yards per play and 10.2 points per game more than last year. But they'll be tested – Baltimore’s next five opponents have a combined record of 12-3 through Week 3.

4. N.Y. JETS (3-0). Last week: 24-17 win vs. Tennessee. Last Sunday, Kerry Collins completed just 15 of 37 passes with a 41.5 rating against the Jets – this performance came after Tom Brady's 53.1 and Matt Schaub's 55.9. New York opponents this year have thrown 77 passes to wide receivers and completed just 35 of them. The Jets boast a 50.2 Defensive Passer Rating (No. 2 behind the Giants) and they match wits with Drew Brees this Sunday. After that, the DPR will improve as they face Chad Henne/Pat White (twice), JaMarcus Russell and Trent Edwards.

5. DENVER (3-0). Last week: 23-3 win at Oakland. Folks, could we please recognize defense? The Broncos have allowed 5.3 points per game, 3.9 yards per play and have forced eight turnovers. More importantly, when looking at the Broncos through our Quality Stats, they are No. 1 in Bendability, No. 2 in the critical Defensive Hog Index and No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating. But national “pundits” like Peter King had them 11th in his Monday Morning power rankings. Eleventh!! ESPN.com? Even worse – 13th!! If the Broncos were doing on offense what they're doing on defense, they'd be the toast of the NFL.


© Copyright 2005, Pigskin Media Inc. "The Cold, Hard Football Facts" and coldhardfootballfacts.com are trademarks of Pigskin Media Inc.

FanInAZ
10-02-2009, 06:25 AM
Somebody track down OR, I want to hear his responce to the following exserpt from this article...

************************************************** ********

26. OAKLAND (1-2). Last week: 23-3 loss vs. Denver. How do you know if you're going nowhere? You lose to Oakland. The Raiders haven’t beaten a team that would end up making the playoffs since a win over the Redskins in 2005. Their one win this year came against 0-3 Kansas City – so that streak looks safe again here in 2009.

************************************************** ********

That was 4 years ago. That's sad.

NorthernLights
10-02-2009, 06:52 AM
I actually have no problem with this rating. The Broncos are 3-0, in first place in the division and have earned this spot. I've said this in other threads, you don't get to choose who you play. They have lined up and gotten the job done against the teams on their schedule.

My Bolts haven't done as well and shouldn't be rated higher than the Broncos at this point in the season. That's what makes this so much fun. Good luck and we'll see you after our bye.

Lonestar
10-02-2009, 01:03 PM
Can some one explain the bendabilty, d hog, andD passer rating he is quoting.



Sent via Blackberry by alltel.

Dortoh
10-02-2009, 01:08 PM
Dont shoot but that is too high for Denver at this point. If we beat Dullas then maybe top 10 but honestly IMO we dont deserve it yet.

guitarj
10-02-2009, 02:21 PM
Dont shoot but that is too high for Denver at this point. If we beat Dullas then maybe top 10 but honestly IMO we dont deserve it yet.

If we beat Dallas then I think #5 is well deserved. I do think we deserve a top 10 rating at least right now.

Lonestar
10-02-2009, 09:45 PM
As for me I continue to hope for modest improvement from last year.

If our defense is top 15 by years end I will happy top ten ecstatic.

If our O is top ten in scoring. A happy camper.

If our ST is top 15 happy beyond all dreams.

The next 6-8 games will be interesting.

Sent via Blackberry by altell.

NameUsedBefore
10-02-2009, 10:24 PM
It is arguable that we are better than some, but we are definitely not better than all of these teams:


6. INDIANAPOLIS (3-0).

7. MINNESOTA (3-0).

8. PHILADELPHIA (2-1).

9. NEW ENGLAND (2-1).

10. DALLAS (2-1).

11. GREEN BAY (2-1).

12. SAN DIEGO (2-1).

14. CINCINNATI (2-1).

15. CHICAGO (2-1).

16. ATLANTA (2-1).

17. PITTSBURGH (1-2).

rcsodak
10-02-2009, 10:46 PM
It is arguable that we are better than some, but we are definitely not better than all of these teams:


6. INDIANAPOLIS (3-0).

7. MINNESOTA (3-0).

8. PHILADELPHIA (2-1).

9. NEW ENGLAND (2-1).

10. DALLAS (2-1).

11. GREEN BAY (2-1).

12. SAN DIEGO (2-1).

14. CINCINNATI (2-1).

15. CHICAGO (2-1).

16. ATLANTA (2-1).

17. PITTSBURGH (1-2).

Well, to each, his own. EVERY team has it's weaknesses...Denver included.

They're going by statistics....maybe you missed that?

MOtorboat
10-03-2009, 01:01 AM
It is arguable that we are better than some, but we are definitely not better than all of these teams:


6. INDIANAPOLIS (3-0).

7. MINNESOTA (3-0).

8. PHILADELPHIA (2-1).

9. NEW ENGLAND (2-1).

10. DALLAS (2-1).

11. GREEN BAY (2-1).

12. SAN DIEGO (2-1).

14. CINCINNATI (2-1).

15. CHICAGO (2-1).

16. ATLANTA (2-1).

17. PITTSBURGH (1-2).

Interesting.

We beat Cincinnati...in fact, we dominated them for 59 minutes...and still won...yet they are somehow "better."

Chicago...lol...the Jay Cutler curse will precede him.

Atlanta? I doubt it. Ryan is struggling, and the running game isn't as dominant as it was last year.

Pittsburgh is in a very tough situation in one hell of a division. The Ravens are the real deal.

I'm not about to say Dallas and Green Bay are definitively better than Denver. Especially since Denver plays Dallas this week.

topscribe
10-03-2009, 01:22 AM
It is arguable that we are better than some, but we are definitely not better than all of these teams:


We're going to get the chance to find out against several of them, aren't we?

-----

MasterShake
10-03-2009, 10:21 AM
We're going to get the chance to find out against several of them, aren't we?

-----

Heck, we may even have a chance to beat the Chargers because we don't have a Quarterback that already has Philip Rivers in his head screwing with him before the first snap. The only thing Orton has in his head is another neckbeard, waiting to pop out in November.

BroncoJoe
10-03-2009, 10:24 AM
Most would like this one too. It's based purely on stats, strength of schedule, etc.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

SmilinAssasSin27
10-03-2009, 12:01 PM
We're only ranked that high cuz we haven't lost yet.

Lonestar
10-03-2009, 12:47 PM
We're only ranked that high cuz we haven't lost yet.

as were a couple of the other teams.. and conversely soem were ranked below us just because they lost..


funny that is the same way ones gets into the playoffs..

SmilinAssasSin27
10-03-2009, 01:10 PM
apparently I forgot to add my sarcasm button.

TXBRONC
10-03-2009, 02:33 PM
Thanks for the information Dean. :salute:

Honestly I don't know if I would rank Denver ahead of Indianapolis but they have their reasons for doing so.

Simple Jaded
10-03-2009, 02:42 PM
"If the Broncos were doing on offense what they're doing on defense, they'd be the toast of the NFL."

Where have I heard something like that before? Apparently offense only counts when the entire team has a historical collapse.......

BroncoJoe
10-03-2009, 05:00 PM
We're only ranked that high cuz we haven't lost yet.

What about the six other teams that are undefeated?

NightTrainLayne
10-06-2009, 02:44 PM
Updated with Week 4 data:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

Broncos drop to #3.


[/QUNFL 2009 through games of October 5 Monday - Week 4
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.18 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 Indianapolis Colts = 29.49 4 0 0 19.49( 19) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 29.14 3 | 29.94 2
2 New Orleans Saints = 29.48 4 0 0 19.60( 17) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 28.92 4 | 30.20 1
3 Denver Broncos = 28.12 4 0 0 17.49( 28) 0 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 29.74 1 | 26.95 3
4 Minnesota Vikings = 27.14 4 0 0 19.60( 18) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 29.60 2 | 25.52 5
5 New York Jets = 25.65 3 1 0 21.95( 6) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 26.05 7 | 25.33 7
6 New York Giants = 25.64 4 0 0 15.68( 31) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 26.20 6 | 25.17 8
7 New England Patriots = 25.36 3 1 0 19.18( 21) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 27.24 5 | 23.92 11
8 San Francisco 49ers = 25.18 3 1 0 18.73( 25) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 23.98 11 | 26.68 4
9 Baltimore Ravens = 24.74 3 1 0 17.72( 26) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 24.14 10 | 25.45 6
10 Chicago Bears = 24.12 3 1 0 19.87( 16) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 24.25 9 | 24.04 10
NFL 2009 through games of October 5 Monday - Week 4
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.18 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
11 Cincinnati Bengals = 23.16 3 1 0 21.94( 7) 0 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 25.91 8 | 20.99 17
12 Philadelphia Eagles = 23.09 2 1 0 16.79( 29) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 21.91 14 | 24.46 9
13 Pittsburgh Steelers = 22.61 2 2 0 20.82( 12) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 22.25 13 | 23.05 13
14 Green Bay Packers = 22.28 2 2 0 20.69( 13) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.95 12 | 21.68 16
15 Jacksonville Jaguars = 21.11 2 2 0 20.86( 11) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.31 19 | 23.08 12
16 Dallas Cowboys = 21.05 2 2 0 19.21( 20) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.83 16 | 22.37 14
17 Arizona Cardinals = 21.01 1 2 0 24.20( 2) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 20.36 15 | 21.73 15
18 San Diego Chargers = 20.22 2 2 0 18.94( 23) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.76 18 | 20.74 19
19 Atlanta Falcons = 19.19 2 1 0 17.71( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.80 17 | 18.63 21
20 Seattle Seahawks = 18.44 1 3 0 21.78( 9) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 15.87 24 | 20.80 18
NFL 2009 through games of October 5 Monday - Week 4
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.18 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
21 Miami Dolphins = 17.41 1 3 0 20.60( 14) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.47 25 | 19.18 20
22 Houston Texans = 17.17 2 2 0 16.79( 30) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 16.21 23 | 18.13 23
23 Detroit Lions = 16.17 1 3 0 23.99( 3) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.83 20 | 14.24 24
24 Tennessee Titans = 15.77 0 4 0 23.22( 4) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 12.49 28 | 18.20 22
25 Washington Redskins = 15.20 2 2 0 14.92( 32) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.47 22 | 13.76 25
26 Cleveland Browns = 14.77 0 4 0 25.79( 1) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 16.66 21 | 12.26 28
27 Carolina Panthers = 13.53 0 3 0 22.17( 5) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 14.13 26 | 12.91 27
28 Buffalo Bills = 13.49 1 3 0 20.45( 15) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 13.73 27 | 13.29 26
29 Oakland Raiders = 10.97 1 3 0 19.01( 22) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 11.93 29 | 9.82 30
30 Kansas City Chiefs = 10.55 0 4 0 21.11( 10) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 8.25 32 | 12.04 29
NFL 2009 through games of October 5 Monday - Week 4
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.18 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9.56 0 4 0 18.84( 24) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 10.05 30 | 9.05 31
32 St. Louis Rams = 8.34 0 4 0 21.86( 8) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 9.58 31 | 6.41 32
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ______________

Broncos (#3) Pure Points = 26.95 + 3.18 (home-field adv.) = 30.13

Patriots (#7) Pure Points = 23.92

Pure points predicts another Broncos win.

Dean
10-06-2009, 10:36 PM
ESPN is coming around. We are up to #8.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings

ESPN TV RADIO MAGAZINE INSIDER SHOP ESPN360 SPORTSCENTER En Español Ufalse

Register NowmyESPN (Sign In)
2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5Week: SelectPre12345 Add Widget
ESPN.com


Uneasy rests the crown. The Baltimore Ravens' two-week reign as the NFL's best team -- as determined by the weekly poll of our experts -- has ended.

The Indianapolis Colts are the new leaders of the ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings, followed by the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets in slots Nos. 2-5, respectively. The Ravens fell to No. 7, one slot behind the team that toppled them on the field and off, the New England Patriots. The Patriots visit the No. 8 Denver Broncos in what should be Week 5's showcase game. If form holds, the Colts should solidify their top ranking for a second week even after visiting the rival Tennessee Titans, who took a seven-slot tumble to No. 25.

That said, there's a crowded field in the race for the bottom. The St. Louis Rams seem to have No. 32 on lockdown, but the Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown signs of being the worst outfits, too. Despite a humbling loss to the Chicago Bears, the No. 27 Detroit Lions boosted their stock one notch.


• More: Voting | Blogs | FB Today | SN: Rank 'em | Pick 'em | Charts


[Editor's note: LW indicates each team's ranking in the Week 4 edition of the Power Rankings.]



2009 Power Rankings: Week 5
RK (LW) TEAM REC COMMENT
1 (2) Colts 4-0-0 Back to prime time Sunday in Nashville, where a shaky secondary awaits Peyton Manning. (Kuharsky)
2 (3) Giants 4-0-0 Eli Manning put his best foot forward during this 4-0 start, but plantar fasciitis is going to make the next steps very painful. (Clayton)
3 (5) Vikings 4-0-0 Against the Packers, Brett Favre showed just how scary the Vikings' offense can be. (Chadiha)
4 (4) Saints 4-0-0 This team doesn't always need Drew Brees to put up huge numbers, a good sign for the Saints. (Sando)
5 (6) Jets 3-1-0 Even though Mark Sanchez played like a rookie against the Saints' blitz, the Jets proved they can compete on the road. (Clayton)
6 (7) Patriots 3-1-0 With his offensive line and the league's roughing-the-passer rules, Tom Brady is the best-protected quarterback in football. (Clayton)
7 (1) Ravens 3-1-0 In the loss at New England, Mark Clayton's fourth-quarter drop hurt them more than shaky penalties. (Chadiha)
8 (13) Broncos 4-0-0 Mike Nolan's defense has been stingy with points and is starting to get attention for a major turnaround. (Kuharsky)
9 (8) Falcons 2-1-0 Matt Ryan won in the Bay Area last season, but that was against Oakland. He's got a tougher test in Week 5 at the 49ers. (Sando)
10 (9) Eagles 2-1-0 The Eagles could start soaring again now that Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook have rested their aching bodies. (Clayton)
11 (11) Bengals 3-1-0 They're one miraculous play from being undefeated at this point. (Chadiha)
12 (15) 49ers 3-1-0 Mike Singletary is keeping the 49ers grounded, a good move given how many games remain. (Sando)
13 (10) Packers 2-2-0 They have to do something about their offensive line problems. (Chadiha)
14 (14) Bears 3-1-0 Against the Lions, Matt Forte finally regained his rhythm. (Chadiha)
15 (16) Steelers 2-2-0 Rashard Mendenhall was great in win over San Diego. (Chadiha)
16 (12) Chargers 2-2-0 The Chargers were unimpressive and uninspired in the first three quarters in Pittsburgh. (Kuharsky)
17 (17) Cowboys 2-2-0 Apparently, the Cowboys got confused. Jerry Jones called them "champs," but Tony Romo interpreted it by throwing toward Champ Bailey. (Clayton)
18 (22) Jaguars 2-2-0 Two division wins in a row served notice that the young Jaguars don't believe they need time to develop. (Kuharsky)
19 (19) Cardinals 1-2-0 The Texans' defense should give Kurt Warner and friends a chance to get their offense moving again. (Sando)
20 (20) Texans 2-2-0 In Week 5 at Arizona, can the Texans' high-flying offense flourish in the desert and keep pace with the Cardinals? (Kuharsky)
21 (24) Dolphins 1-3-0 The Chad Henne era got off to a good running start, but they might have trouble if asked to win games through the air. (Clayton)
22 (26) Redskins 2-2-0 Finally, Jason Campbell showed great leadership in a third-quarter explosion in yet another low-scoring game against a beatable team. (Clayton)
23 (21) Bills 1-3-0 Maybe the Bills should start huddling. Their offense is going nowhere fast. (Clayton)
24 (23) Seahawks 1-3-0 Getting Matt Hasselbeck back on the field could be easier than keeping him there. Seattle's O-line is hurting. (Sando)
25 (18) Titans 0-4-0 No spark, no attitude, no swagger, no identity. (Kuharsky)
26 (25) Panthers 0-3-0 John Fox has been here before. His 2004 team finished 7-9 after a 1-7 start. (Sando)
27 (28) Lions 1-3-0 The Lions can rest easier knowing that Matt Stafford's knee injury isn't severe. (Chadiha)
28 (27) Raiders 1-3-0 A trip to New York to face the Giants is hardly a remedy for a team that hasn't scored a touchdown in two weeks. (Kuharsky)
29 (29) Browns 0-4-0 It's already looking like a long year for the Browns. (Chadiha)
30 (30) Chiefs 0-4-0 Halfway through four in a row against the NFC East, with no good results yet. (Kuharsky)
31 (31) Buccaneers 0-4-0 Only the Chiefs are converting third-down chances less frequently. This offense needs much work. (Sando)
32 (32) Rams 0-4-0 The Rams never expected to be this bad, even during a rebuilding season. Steven Jackson is a one-man show. (Sando)
Glossary
The rankings were determined by a poll of four voters on ESPN.com's NFL staff: writers John Clayton (AFC East, NFC East), Jeffri Chadiha (AFC North, NFC North), Paul Kuharsky (AFC South, AFC West), and Mike Sando (NFC South, NFC West).


©2009 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information/Your California Privacy Rights are applicable to you. All rights reserved.

NightTrainLayne
10-13-2009, 09:51 AM
Updated for week 5.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm?loc=interstitialskip

The Broncos are back up to #1 overall



NFL 2009 through games of October 12 Monday - Week 5
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.39 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 Denver Broncos = 29.85 5 0 0 19.51( 22) 2 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 33.05 1 | 28.00 3
2 Indianapolis Colts = 29.64 5 0 0 18.36( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 29.16 3 | 30.17 1
3 New Orleans Saints = 28.12 4 0 0 18.42( 26) 0 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 26.82 6 | 29.82 2
4 Minnesota Vikings = 27.12 5 0 0 17.31( 28) 0 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 29.01 4 | 25.67 7
5 New England Patriots = 26.55 3 2 0 22.70( 4) 2 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 27.05 5 | 26.07 6
6 New York Giants = 26.14 5 0 0 13.48( 32) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 25.80 7 | 26.50 5
7 Atlanta Falcons = 25.79 3 1 0 21.02( 10) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 24.88 9 | 26.82 4
8 Cincinnati Bengals = 25.54 4 1 0 23.98( 2) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 29.36 2 | 22.99 14
9 Chicago Bears = 25.12 3 1 0 20.76( 13) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 25.05 8 | 25.18 10
10 Baltimore Ravens = 24.67 3 2 0 19.47( 23) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 23.96 12 | 25.43 8
NFL 2009 through games of October 12 Monday - Week 5
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.39 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
11 Pittsburgh Steelers = 23.81 3 2 0 20.31( 15) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 24.70 10 | 22.98 15
12 Philadelphia Eagles = 23.19 3 1 0 14.41( 31) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 21.92 14 | 24.59 11
13 Green Bay Packers = 23.10 2 2 0 21.42( 8) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.00 11 | 22.25 17
14 New York Jets = 22.88 3 2 0 20.94( 11) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 22.01 13 | 23.81 12
15 San Francisco 49ers = 22.18 3 2 0 19.75( 19) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 21.28 15 | 23.10 13
16 Dallas Cowboys = 21.54 3 2 0 18.54( 25) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 20.53 17 | 22.57 16
17 Seattle Seahawks = 21.22 2 3 0 19.68( 20) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.52 21 | 25.37 9
18 San Diego Chargers = 21.07 2 2 0 19.83( 18) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 21.19 16 | 20.96 19
19 Miami Dolphins = 20.62 2 3 0 21.94( 5) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 19.46 18 | 21.80 18
20 Arizona Cardinals = 19.08 2 2 0 19.37( 24) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.20 19 | 18.96 20
NFL 2009 through games of October 12 Monday - Week 5
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.39 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
21 Cleveland Browns = 16.07 1 4 0 24.45( 1) 0 4 0 | 0 4 0 | 18.61 20 | 12.75 27
22 Jacksonville Jaguars = 15.95 2 3 0 19.87( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.09 22 | 15.81 21
23 Detroit Lions = 14.89 1 4 0 23.09( 3) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 15.55 24 | 14.18 23
24 Carolina Panthers = 14.73 1 3 0 21.05( 9) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 15.64 23 | 13.70 25
25 Houston Texans = 14.51 2 3 0 15.66( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 13.65 26 | 15.28 22
26 Washington Redskins = 13.67 2 3 0 15.03( 30) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 13.80 25 | 13.52 26
27 Buffalo Bills = 12.69 1 4 0 19.61( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 12.78 27 | 12.60 28
28 Tennessee Titans = 12.53 0 5 0 21.84( 7) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 10.32 29 | 14.14 24
29 Kansas City Chiefs = 10.51 0 5 0 20.68( 14) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 7.52 32 | 12.31 29
30 Oakland Raiders = 10.23 1 4 0 20.89( 12) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 11.74 28 | 7.97 31
NFL 2009 through games of October 12 Monday - Week 5
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.39 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9.08 0 5 0 19.92( 16) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 9.02 31 | 9.13 30
32 St. Louis Rams = 7.91 0 5 0 21.94( 6) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 9.33 30 | 5.57 3

Based on the "Pure Points" caculation we are favorites at San Diego.

Denver = 28.00 (3rd overall in Pure Points)

San Diego = 20.96 + 2.39 (home field advantage adjustment) = 23.35

Pure Points predicts another Broncos win, but this is the closest one in several weeks, partly due to being a road game.

Based on the games so far this season, the home-field advantage has been lowered to 2.39 points for the home team, from the usual 3.18. San Diego has never really had a huge home field advantage anyway, so it shouldn't have that much of an effect.

honz
10-13-2009, 10:41 AM
SD has always seemed tough at home, but maybe that's just because of our pitiful performances up there the past few years. It seems like we get blown out of the water every single time.

NightTrainLayne
10-13-2009, 10:44 AM
SD has always seemed tough at home, but maybe that's just because of our pitiful performances up there the past few years. It seems like we get blown out of the water every single time.

The last few years when they've had good teams. .. but I remember many years when there were as many Broncos fans as Charger fans out there, and the stadium is not extremely loud.

It's an advantage, but not as big as Arrowhead, or Seattle or the like.

Lonestar
10-13-2009, 11:25 AM
SD has always seemed tough at home, but maybe that's just because of our pitiful performances up there the past few years. It seems like we get blown out of the water every single time.

they have had good talent over those years.. and frankly we had jay as QB rivers got into his head in one of those games and jay never got over it..

Our Defense the last couple of years STUNK to high heaven..

Rivers is a damned good QB and IMO should have been the Pro bowl QB over Jay..

we have changed alot but they are also coming off a BYE week and have their back to a wall..

I think it will be a really good game.. I hope we win.. we have been playing lights out the past few games and not sure how much is still in the emotional high tank..

Cugel
10-14-2009, 12:26 AM
There's no reason to think the Chargers can't be beat. Their defense is HIGHLY suspect. They can't run the ball to save their lives. LT is not the player he was. Rivers can't do it alone, and his OL is shaky.

Denver should come out and pressure him. The key matchup will be Dumervil against the OL and Champ Bailey isolated one-on-one against Vincent Jackson.

Denver should be able to stuff the run as they have all season. But, Rivers can throw the ball all day and he has good WRs.

Brand
10-14-2009, 01:27 AM
Jackson is a great deal taller than DBs. Phyllis tosses it up and Jackson gets the jump ball. That works for goal line fades, but also for the four yard sideline passes and more. The past seveal years, Denver did not have a pass rush. With Doom and Ayers, there may be more opportunities than before. But I do not discount Denver's O for both moving the ball and TOP.

It is not in the bag for either team, although I would suspect that Denver should appear more formidable to them than vice versa.....

NightTrainLayne
10-27-2009, 11:37 AM
Updated through Week 7, Broncos still Rated #1:


NFL 2009 through games of October 26 Monday - Week 7
HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.36 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 Denver Broncos = 34.00 6 0 0 21.59( 10) 2 0 0 | 4 0 0 | 36.39 1 | 32.35 2
2 New Orleans Saints = 33.19 6 0 0 19.76( 18) 1 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 32.25 3 | 34.37 1
3 Indianapolis Colts = 31.86 6 0 0 16.97( 28) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 32.97 2 | 30.96 4
4 New England Patriots = 28.83 5 2 0 19.69( 19) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 26.51 7 | 32.05 3
5 Cincinnati Bengals = 28.04 5 2 0 23.65( 4) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 29.64 4 | 26.71 9
6 Arizona Cardinals = 26.85 4 2 0 22.62( 7) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 26.88 6 | 26.87 8
7 Minnesota Vikings = 26.79 6 1 0 18.35( 23) 1 0 0 | 2 1 0 | 28.63 5 | 25.25 11
8 Atlanta Falcons = 25.98 4 2 0 21.15( 14) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 25.54 9 | 26.50 10
9 Green Bay Packers = 25.83 4 2 0 17.61( 25) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 24.57 10 | 27.27 7
10 New York Jets = 25.30 4 3 0 21.16( 13) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 23.04 14 | 28.03 5
NFL 2009 through games of October 26 Monday - Week 7
HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.36 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
11 Baltimore Ravens = 24.91 3 3 0 21.62( 9) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 22.82 15 | 27.37 6
12 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.45 5 2 0 19.40( 21) 1 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 26.15 8 | 22.95 17
13 New York Giants = 24.18 5 2 0 16.02( 29) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.19 11 | 24.22 13
14 Dallas Cowboys = 23.11 4 2 0 17.06( 27) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 23.17 13 | 23.11 16
15 Miami Dolphins = 23.09 2 4 0 25.58( 2) 1 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 21.46 19 | 24.90 12
16 San Diego Chargers = 22.79 3 3 0 21.16( 12) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 21.57 18 | 24.13 14
17 San Francisco 49ers = 22.73 3 3 0 20.39( 15) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 21.88 17 | 23.66 15
18 Chicago Bears = 21.60 3 3 0 22.99( 5) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 23.36 12 | 19.97 20
19 Houston Texans = 21.38 4 3 0 20.20( 16) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.44 16 | 20.39 19
20 Seattle Seahawks = 18.90 2 4 0 19.91( 17) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 16.82 23 | 20.98 18
NFL 2009 through games of October 26 Monday - Week 7
HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.36 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
21 Buffalo Bills = 17.09 3 4 0 19.46( 20) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 17.65 21 | 16.57 22
22 Philadelphia Eagles = 16.86 4 2 0 11.39( 31) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 14.91 25 | 18.74 21
23 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.70 3 3 0 18.76( 22) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.46 20 | 13.65 23
24 Cleveland Browns = 14.77 1 6 0 26.07( 1) 0 4 0 | 0 6 0 | 17.57 22 | 11.43 24
25 Detroit Lions = 12.02 1 5 0 22.81( 6) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 13.41 26 | 10.48 25
26 Oakland Raiders = 11.98 2 5 0 21.67( 8) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 15.21 24 | 7.22 29
27 Tennessee Titans = 11.17 0 6 0 25.21( 3) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 12.33 27 | 9.90 26
28 Kansas City Chiefs = 8.52 1 6 0 18.21( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 4 0 | 7.67 29 | 9.33 27
29 Carolina Panthers = 7.53 2 4 0 15.03( 30) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 7.72 28 | 7.40 28
30 Washington Redskins = 5.00 2 5 0 10.33( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 2.72 30 | 6.65 30
NFL 2009 through games of October 26 Monday - Week 7
HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.36 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
31 St. Louis Rams = 2.41 0 7 0 21.31( 11) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 2.41 31 | 2.47 32
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 2.13 0 7 0 17.51( 26) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | -1.35 32 | 4.11 31

The Pure Points matchup vs. Baltimore looks like this:

Denver Broncos = 32.35
Baltimore Ravens 27.37 + 1.36 (home-field adjustment) = 28.73

Pure Points predicts another Broncos win.

Interestingly Sagarin's Strength of Schedule factor gives the Ravens the #9 overall toughest schedule, followed very closely with #10 for the Broncos. The Ravens have play 4 "Top 16" teams with a 1-3 record to show for it, and three "Top 10" teams losing all three.

The Broncos have played 4 "Top 16" teams going 4-0, and 2 "Top 10" teams going 2-0.

Baltimore has not faired as well against good teams, but they are battle-tested, and have played a REALLY tough schedule. Baltimore is much better than their 3-3 record would suggest, and they are at home.

Sagarin's home-field advantage has moved down based on a lot of visiting teams winning on the road this season. Including Cincinatti in Baltimore. The only other two home games for Baltimore were the Chiefs and the Browns. I think Baltimore probably deserves a little more in terms of home-field advantage because that is a tough place to play, and we're travelling to the East Coast.

Should be a close, hotly contested game.

TXBRONC
10-27-2009, 02:18 PM
Updated through Week 7, Broncos still Rated #1:



The Pure Points matchup vs. Baltimore looks like this:

Denver Broncos = 32.35
Baltimore Ravens 27.37 + 1.36 (home-field adjustment) = 28.73

Pure Points predicts another Broncos win.

Interestingly Sagarin's Strength of Schedule factor gives the Ravens the #9 overall toughest schedule, followed very closely with #10 for the Broncos. The Ravens have play 4 "Top 16" teams with a 1-3 record to show for it, and three "Top 10" teams losing all three.

The Broncos have played 4 "Top 16" teams going 4-0, and 2 "Top 10" teams going 2-0.

Baltimore has not faired as well against good teams, but they are battle-tested, and have played a REALLY tough schedule. Baltimore is much better than their 3-3 record would suggest, and they are at home.

Sagarin's home-field advantage has moved down based on a lot of visiting teams winning on the road this season. Including Cincinatti in Baltimore. The only other two home games for Baltimore were the Chiefs and the Browns. I think Baltimore probably deserves a little more in terms of home-field advantage because that is a tough place to play, and we're travelling to the East Coast.

Should be a close, hotly contested game.

Half of our games to this point have been decided by 7 points or less.