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Dean
09-23-2009, 07:03 AM
Here are the analysis of the stats for the first two games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2009/week-2-dvoa-ratings


With only two games to analyze, conclusions are sketchy but an interesting way to kill time.

topscribe
09-23-2009, 07:41 AM
Here are the analysis of the stats for the first two games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2009/week-2-dvoa-ratings


With only two games to analyze, conclusions are sketchy but an interesting way to kill time.

I don't know how to read that damn thing. But it looks there as if Denver is
ranked #6 offensively and #7 defensively. Right?

-----

frauschieze
09-23-2009, 08:48 AM
I don't know how to read that damn thing. But it looks there as if Denver is
ranked #6 offensively and #7 defensively. Right?

-----

Correct. Our special teams look horrendous (missed FGs and fumbles on kickoffs tend to do that) and I'm curious to see how things look after DVOA splits are adjusted for opponents. I suspect Denver will drop considerably after that point.

Cugel
09-23-2009, 12:12 PM
That would depend a lot on what happens after the first 4 games. They only start making the "opponent adjustments" in week 9 or something (which makes sense since you can't really tell who's going to be good and who will suffer a drop off since last season until then).

For instance, based on last year, beating the Titans would be a huge boost, but are they any good this year? The early signs are not encouraging and it looks like they will drop off. Will the Patriots be as good as advertised without some of their veteran defenders from years past?

What about the Chargers? They seem schizophrenic: very good in some areas and bad in others. They are missing NT Jamal Williams who is the heart of their 3-4 defense. That's got to hurt, a lot.

And so on. If a team loses to the Broncos is that understandable because they're a good team this year, or is it a sign of weakness because they are still lacking just as they were last year? Nobody knows at this point.

underrated29
09-23-2009, 12:36 PM
link not a workin.???


edit*- its a workin now. Right after i typed this...ha

shank
09-23-2009, 12:43 PM
dave doesn't like us much. **** dave.

NightTrainLayne
09-23-2009, 03:00 PM
Let's stay on topic. Thanks!

:focus:

LRtagger
09-23-2009, 04:15 PM
I don't really want to read the entire article...but why is Philly ranked #1 on defense? Didnt they just get balled on and give up 48 points?

frauschieze
09-23-2009, 06:09 PM
I don't really want to read the entire article...but why is Philly ranked #1 on defense? Didnt they just get balled on and give up 48 points?

The article wouldn't explain why they are ranked first anyway. VOA and DVOA is hard to understand. It's based on "successful" plays (which are defined in all sorts of ways). If you're interested, you can read about it here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA). I can try to answer any questions you have, but they are better at explaining the basics than I am.

shank
09-23-2009, 07:14 PM
Let's stay on topic. Thanks!

:focus:

dave was one of the ratings that had us ranked 24th. ;)

Kaylore
09-23-2009, 11:48 PM
dave doesn't like us much. **** dave.

Best post ever!:lol:

Dean
09-24-2009, 06:19 AM
In watching the games, I was unaware how weak our right defensive end/LB had played the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl


This second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard. These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end.

LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
1 ARI 6.18 25 0.55 2 2.39 3 0.83 1 2.60 5
2 BAL 0.96 6 9.19 32 2.40 4 1.36 3 5.19 25
3 TEN 6.80 27 2.40 6 2.17 2 3.27 11 -2.22 2
4 PIT -0.18 4 1.75 4 3.82 19 3.60 13 3.55 14
5 CHI 1.17 7 2.07 5 2.58 6 6.28 30 3.86 15
6 BUF -6.75 2 2.65 8 3.62 16 0.89 2 4.82 20
7 DEN 7.76 30 6.65 29 2.79 7 1.39 4 0.83 4
8 SF 1.31 8 7.84 31 3.91 21 4.17 19 -2.23 1
9 NO 5.81 24 3.37 11 3.71 18 9.47 32 0.22 3
10 SEA 6.94 28 -0.80 1 3.69 17 3.60 12 3.40 10
11 MIN 5.30 22 4.71 21 2.56 5 3.63 14 4.98 21
12 PHI -0.26 3 5.69 26 3.26 9 3.86 17 5.01 23
13 NYJ 8.93 32 4.61 19 2.82 8 1.97 5 4.02 16
14 OAK 2.77 12 6.16 27 3.53 13 2.34 7 6.24 29
15 WAS 1.65 9 3.32 10 1.63 1 5.14 25 5.87 28
16 CIN 1.85 10 3.55 12 4.01 22 4.26 20 4.62 19
LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
TEAM ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank
17 HOU 4.02 15 5.05 23 3.50 12 4.56 21 3.53 13
18 MIA -8.30 1 4.03 16 4.13 23 4.11 18 6.25 30
19 JAC 2.47 11 3.98 15 4.70 27 6.04 28 3.38 8
20 NYG 5.62 23 3.91 14 3.61 15 3.67 15 3.29 6
21 GB 5.05 21 4.34 17 3.89 20 5.32 26 3.52 12
22 DAL 0.75 5 5.09 24 3.60 14 7.39 31 3.39 9
23 STL 3.42 13 6.64 28 3.49 11 4.99 23 4.06 17
24 DET 4.15 16 4.66 20 4.95 28 2.31 6 5.00 22
25 NE 4.22 17 1.69 3 5.13 30 3.77 16 4.16 18
26 ATL 5.01 20 4.84 22 5.14 31 3.07 9 3.50 11
27 CAR 7.43 29 4.35 18 3.26 10 4.96 22 5.85 27
28 TB 4.57 18 6.69 30 4.69 26 2.53 8 6.55 31
29 CLE 3.62 14 3.20 9 5.10 29 5.07 24 8.94 32
30 KC 7.77 31 2.50 7 4.46 24 6.15 29 5.52 26
31 IND 6.54 26 5.55 25 4.55 25 5.40 27 3.36 7
32 SD 4.89 19 3.73 13 6.05 32 3.25 10 5.07 24
x NFL 4.26 x 4.09 x 3.84 x 4.08 x 4.05 x


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I would have thought that the Peterson & DJ combination (I continually see McBean stood up) was more successful but I guess not.

shank
09-24-2009, 10:44 AM
In watching the games, I was unaware how weak our right defensive end/LB had played the run.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl




I would have thought that the Peterson & DJ combination (I continually see McBean stood up) was more successful but I guess not.

i wouldn't call them weak. the sample size is so small that just one or two big runs to that side can make the average skyrocket. i think they have been stout, but had a couple of mistakes, where the other side has bottled everything up. as the season goes on, the gap between the two sides will close and we'll see where we really are as far as stopping the run.

Dean
09-24-2009, 09:55 PM
i wouldn't call them weak. the sample size is so small that just one or two big runs to that side can make the average skyrocket. i think they have been stout, but had a couple of mistakes, where the other side has bottled everything up. as the season goes on, the gap between the two sides will close and we'll see where we really are as far as stopping the run.

That's true but 30 and 29 out of 32 is a bit more than the standard deviation. There is a sizable gap to be closed.

TXBRONC
09-25-2009, 11:08 AM
Small sample or not right now our special teams/ return units haven't been all that good.