QBR and how it effects Quarterbacks in the NFL

[Northman]

So i was looking and reading up more on QBR vs regular NFL ratings for Quarterbacks and in theory the QBR is the most complete example of how well a Quarterback does at any given time throughout a season or career. Granted, this only started around 2006 from what i can tell so going back to guys like Montana or Elway doesnt have a QBR for them. But i went and looked at some QB's across the league to see how they all measured up whether in a short period of time or a few years to see what separates them and i did find some interesting stats especially when it applies to some of the better QB's in the NFL vs average vs poor performance.

I know Kinger and i were discussing how we felt about guys like Jalen Hurts and i find the QBR method very interesting in terms of QB performance and how fans generally feel about these QB's in question. Only one guy in this list is "interesting" to me and thats Burrow but it will be interesting in how his career plays out overall in terms of QBR and his success. As for the other QB's none of these numbers really shock me and they are bracketed about where i myself view them in terms of franchise quality. Matt Ryan is also a bit of an enigma because only in the last 3 years has he been under 60% so one might conclude the issue is the team around him instead of him himself.


From what i can see most if not all QB's who are considered the best in the NFL have a 60% or better QBR most years. This would include,


Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott
Russell Wilson
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Matt Ryan



Qbs who have hit the 60% mark a couple of years but have spent more or the same amount of time under 60%,


Derek Carr
Kirk Cousins
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
Baker Mayfield
Ryan Tannehill
Carson Wentz
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Cam Newton



QB's who have never hit the 60% mark, (*Rookie)


Teddy Bridgewater
Drew Lock
Joe Burrow
Mac Jones *
Tua Tagovailoa
Zach Wilson *
Trevor Lawrence *
Jalen Hurts
Taylor Heinicke
Daniel Jones
Trey Lance *
Justin Fields *
Sam Darnold

[BroncoJoe]

https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/1480039940180172803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1480039940180172803%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fdenver-broncos

[Northman]

https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/1480039940180172803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1480039940180172803%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fdenver-broncos

Yea, that was one game though, im talking in totality of a season and seasons overall. For instance, for his first 3 years in the league he has a QBR of 50.2, 41.2, and 23.7 for this year.

[BroncoJoe]

Yea, that was one game though, im talking in totality of a season and seasons overall. For instance, for his first 3 years in the league he has a QBR of 50.2, 41.2, and 23.7 for this year.

Gotcha. I thought you were referring to games.

[Simple Jaded]

bz-9WeHDPV4

[Mozzafiato]

1480572837467287552

[Simple Jaded]

Buy low.

[Northman]

In this year's draft im not surprised at all that Pickett tops the list, however i am a bit surprised that Zappe has a high QBR so maybe he is the fly in the ointment and could be a sleeper. Not surprised by Strong and Eleby which scares me because i know Denver is interested in Kaleb which would mean yet again another damn project QB if they take him. For all the good things Strong can do he has more negatives in my opinion and his QBR certainly reinforces my thoughts on him.

As expected, next years draft class has a lot of high ceiling guys, Stroud and Young are extremely high but you have to wonder if it has some to do with the schools they play for. Bennett and McCall are intriguing whereas im laughing out loud at the fact my boy Armstrong has a higher QBR than Rattler who i feel is vastly overrated. With him getting benched last year in favor of the backup pretty much supports my theory there as well. I only threw DJ in there because despite the setback by Clemson i really dont think DJ is in the same vein as Lawrence or Watson so im not shocked by his QBR either. And of course, Jaded seems to be dead on with Jham's fav QB with Haener who scores very low on the QBR list.



Highest QBR for College QB's (This Draft) in 2021.

Kenny Pickett- 81.2
Matt Corrall- 80.5
Bailey Zappe- 78.6
Sam Howell- 76.1
Desmond Ridder- 71.9
Malik Willis- 70.0
Brock Purdy- 70.0
Carson Strong- 64.5
Kaleb Eleby- 61.4



(Next Years Draft)

CJ Stroud- 91.6
Bryce Young- 87.6
Stetson Bennett- 86.7
Grayson McCall- 81.5
Jaren Hall- 78.0
Hendon Hooker- 77.9
Will Levis- 76.8
Brennan Armstrong- 75.4 (Chose because UVA guy)
Spencer Rattler- 71.6
Jake Haener- 66.5
D.J. Ulagalelei- 43.2

[Northman]

If im being honest concerning both lists the QB's that have a QBR with 80 or better i would consider to be starters/franchise type of guys. For those under they all would seem to be backups or out of the league type QB's. IMO

[Simple Jaded]

DJ Uiagalelei really shit the bed, I bet he loses his starting job and enters the transfer portal. I’m not counting on him being in the ‘23 class.

[Simple Jaded]

If im being honest concerning both lists the QB's that have a QBR with 80 or better i would consider to be starters/franchise type of guys. For those under they all would seem to be backups or out of the league type QB's. IMO

This is why I shit on QBR, the notion that Stetson Bennett is a better prospect than Hendon Hooker.

[chazoe60]

This is why I shit on QBR, the notion that Stetson Bennett is a better prospect than Hendon Hooker.

Stetson Bennett and Hendon Hooker sounds like the cast of a western themed porno.

[chazoe60]

Stetson Bennett and Hendon Hooker in the remake of

20035

Master shake, do what you do

[Simple Jaded]

Hendon Hooker has a better attitude than Dustin Hoffman.

[Northman]

This is why I shit on QBR, the notion that Stetson Bennett is a better prospect than Hendon Hooker.

You know i love me some QBR because it generally aligns with not only how i see QB's as a total package but how it measures up when i look at how good/bad a QB does in the NFL and College respectively.

But as i did point out is Bennetts QBR higher because he plays at Georgia and Hooker plays for a Tenn team still trying to dig out from Manning's shadow? And if so how does that apply to Stroud and Young? Are they simply products of the systems there? I agree with you that QBR will never be the be all end all but i think you spend far too much time pushing against it when i personally think it hits the mark more times than it misses. I mean, i know Bama had a down year (respectively) but what Bennett did against Bama isnt a whole lot to scoff at. Its very hard to beat the machine that is the Tide.

[King87]

QBR gives a good litmus test as to what happened, and to a lesser extent why it happened. It's not definitive and human eyes will always be needed to ascertain certain things. I think it's still better as a rating than the other one, but both are too honed in on efficiency. That's my issue with it; sometimes the guy who slung the ball more and had a turnover was playing way better and had more to overcome than a vintage Jimmy G/Alex Smith hyper efficient game.

[Northman]

QBR gives a good litmus test as to what happened, and to a lesser extent why it happened. It's not definitive and human eyes will always be needed to ascertain certain things. I think it's still better as a rating than the other one, but both are too honed in on efficiency. That's my issue with it; sometimes the guy who slung the ball more and had a turnover was playing way better and had more to overcome than a vintage Jimmy G/Alex Smith hyper efficient game.

I agree but i think the QBR actually does address that. Generally the QBR makes it a habit to point out that if 2 QB's have great games and both QB's have multiple turnovers But only one of them was able to overcome those turnovers than their QBR's are reflected using that method. Many times the QBR will try and determine if a QB is able to make plays when necessary to still win the game even if said QB is having a rough outing.

An example:

If Mahomie is having a game where in the 4th he has thrown for 1 TD and 3 Ints but on the final drive is able to win because of the clutch factor that is incorporated into the QBR.

If Winston on the same day has thrown 3 TD's but the team is in a dogfight and Jamesis has a chance to win the game on the final drive but throws a pick 6 instead that is also incorporated in his clutch factor.

Bottom line it isnt so much about what kind of day the QB is having and what it is they are able to do when the chips are down and how they do it on a consistent basis. Efficiency plays a part but there is so much more to it than just the stat line.

[King87]

I agree but i think the QBR actually does address that. Generally the QBR makes it a habit to point out that if 2 QB's have great games and both QB's have multiple turnovers But only one of them was able to overcome those turnovers than their QBR's are reflected using that method. Many times the QBR will try and determine if a QB is able to make plays when necessary to still win the game even if said QB is having a rough outing.

An example:

If Mahomie is having a game where in the 4th he has thrown for 1 TD and 3 Ints but on the final drive is able to win because of the clutch factor that is incorporated into the QBR.

If Winston on the same day has thrown 3 TD's but the team is in a dogfight and Jamesis has a chance to win the game on the final drive but throws a pick 6 instead that is also incorporated in his clutch factor.

Bottom line it isnt so much about what kind of day the QB is having and what it is they are able to do when the chips are down and how they do it on a consistent basis. Efficiency plays a part but there is so much more to it than just the stat line.

It does address that to an extent. I push back on it a little because they use an example where a guy with more stats but less efficiency 'played worse' than a guy with fewer stats but more efficiency. Sometimes the guy is out there with a bad team and goes hard on attempts because that's the only way to win. I.E. guys like Stafford tend to get worse rubs than other guys. I don't dismiss the stat because it's impossible for it to hit everything.

It's a nice, a really nice way to start analysis. Basketball has PER, baseball has WAR, etc. QBR is pretty solid.

[Simple Jaded]

You know i love me some QBR because it generally aligns with not only how i see QB's as a total package but how it measures up when i look at how good/bad a QB does in the NFL and College respectively.

But as i did point out is Bennetts QBR higher because he plays at Georgia and Hooker plays for a Tenn team still trying to dig out from Manning's shadow? And if so how does that apply to Stroud and Young? Are they simply products of the systems there? I agree with you that QBR will never be the be all end all but i think you spend far too much time pushing against it when i personally think it hits the mark more times than it misses. I mean, i know Bama had a down year (respectively) but what Bennett did against Bama isnt a whole lot to scoff at. Its very hard to beat the machine that is the Tide.
QBR doesn’t measure potential and talent, it recaps games played.

[Northman]

QBR doesn’t measure potential and talent, it recaps games played.

Yea, but do you want it too? Serious question.

Looking back at a slew of QB's who entered into the NFL over the years many of them had potential and/or talent. Shit Jaded, thats why they were drafted in the first place right? But you and i both know that not every player that has potential or talent is going to work out in the NFL because not all of them can translate that stuff at the pro level. Akili Smith had potential and talent, Joey Harrington had potential and talent, Tebow had potential and talent but none that matters if they cant progress and capitalize on it a the professional level.

[Simple Jaded]

Yea, but do you want it too? Serious question.

Looking back at a slew of QB's who entered into the NFL over the years many of them had potential and/or talent. Shit Jaded, thats why they were drafted in the first place right? But you and i both know that not every player that has potential or talent is going to work out in the NFL because not all of them can translate that stuff at the pro level. Akili Smith had potential and talent, Joey Harrington had potential and talent, Tebow had potential and talent but none that matters if they cant progress and capitalize on it a the professional level.

I don’t have any use for QBR, so it doesn’t matter what I want it to do.

Stats will never tell you if a talented prospect will bust, past performance is no guarantee of future performance whether it’s good or bad. Josh Allen sucked until he didn’t, but, the talent was always obvious. Stats are grading players (then ranking them) who had zero conditions in common; QBa gets a better grade/ranking for playing directional college at home while QBb gets a worse grade for playing Bama in front of 100,000 drunk Alabama nut jobs.

I prefer to believe that NFL success is far more about nature/nurture than it is about algorithms, and QBR isn’t even a predictive algorithm … it’s a recap of past performance with almost zero context. Can it measure how QBa did in certain situations? I guess, but then it compares/ranks that dude vs the QBb who absolutely played 11 NFL prospects on every single down (most of them 1st and 2nd round prospects).

That’s not to say I would give QBR any more weight if the same QB put up bad a QBR against a shit team and then put up a great QBR against a great team (I don’t even know if that’s part of their algorithm) … because there’s just too many more variables. Injuries, weather, home/away, luck, bad luck, YAC, dropped passes, poor officiating, hundreds more.

I prefer taking obvious talent and trying to nurture that, instead of rehashing college stats and trying to predict success regardless of talent level.

[Simple Jaded]

DeMarcus Walker led the country in sacks his final season with FSU, he was a dud in the NFL, we know this because stats are nothing more than a recap. Broncos made the same mistake with Mike Croel, leaving Alfred Williams to languish with the Bengals/49ers before that atrocity was fixed by Shanatan.

Croel had a great 40 but he was tiny and stiff, Alfred had everything; 40 time, arm length, strength, burst off the snap, bend for days, 3-cone, vert and “It” (barf). But Croel had a big Sr season so … science.

[Simple Jaded]

Nobody will be more interested in stats when they give the nuances and context the weight they demand, QBR is just in the infancy of that process. I’m basically waiting for them to split the atom.

[King87]

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

[Northman]

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

Yea, but i have to give it to him he's fun to read. Love that guy!

[King87]

I rep him! I rep him hard! Harder than a diamond in a blizzard.

[Simple Jaded]

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

How do you “use” stats? I mean, other than talking yourself into Kirk Schaub and Garbage Minshew?

[Simple Jaded]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Says here that Kirk Schaub and Mac Jones are better QB’s than Lamar Jackson.

Call and offer either to the Ravens, just record it so I can hear their belly laugh bellowing with disbelief.

[King87]

How do you “use” stats? I mean, other than talking yourself into Kirk Schaub and Garbage Minshew?

I fear this is a point in time where your stupidity is too much of a barrier.

[CameronMcGrath]

Yeah, that was one game, though, I'm talking in the totality of a season and seasons overall. Also, I have noticed that there were a lot of debutants. Even though it was their first season in big sports, they were very good. I know that a lot of them have graduated from football Colleges. You can find some good Football Colleges on footballcolleges.com (https://footballcolleges.com/). People that are graduating from such educational institutions are well-trained, so this is why this season was so interesting to watch and full of amazing moments.

[Northman]

Yea, that was one game though, im talking in totality of a season and seasons overall.

Welcome to the boards. I agree.

[Simple Jaded]

I fear this is a point in time where your stupidity is too much of a barrier.

Thank you.

[Northman]

Not good.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14881/russell-wilson