Broncos could make top 10

[Lonestar]

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_7632621

All those misguided souls finally may get their wish. The Broncos, if their season continues to spiral downward, could wind up with a top 10 draft pick.


For the record, the Broncos since Mike Shanahan's arrival in 1995 are the only NFL team not to have a top 10 choice. That speaks volumes about Shanahan's ability to field a winning team year in and year out.

They may not have a winning season in 2007. If so, it would be Shanahan's second sub-.500 year in 13 seasons on the job.

Apparently, that would be fine with some people. Every now and then, the Denver talk shows get a call saying how great it would be if the Broncos had a high No. 1 pick instead of their usual spot late in the first round.

Excuse me? That would mean the Broncos had a lousy season. And it also implies that some college junior or senior is the answer to their problems.

That could be the case. The Broncos may get a high No. 1 and draft a future franchise player. But know this about Shanahan: It isn't his goal to get an early draft choice. And while we're on the subject, winning isn't his goal, either.

His team, as we speak, isn't good enough to get it done, but Shanahan's goal remains the same. He doesn't just want to win. He wants to win a Super Bowl.

[silkamilkamonico]

They could, but they won't.

Denver still has players that can make a difference, and they will win at least another game or 2, IMHO.

As far as a high pick goes, let's finish this season out, and then next year we can get a fresh start from week 1. That way we would know how many games we needed to lose to get the first pick in the 2009 draft.

[lex]

Yeah, Id rather end up either in the playoffs or with a high pick. I just dont want to be in that middle ground where youre neither.

[Watchthemiddle]

Don't look now, but we might end up below the Raiders...:mad:

Just a thought.

[omac]

This is great news for all those Bronco fans who've been rooting for them to lose.

[Fan in Exile]

I really would prefer to be in the middle of the pack than to have a top ten draft pick. The financial impact of a top ten draft pick is brutal. If it goes wrong it can really cripple a team. But if we have something in the 11-15 range we get a good player whose salary won't hurt us in the years to come. Or since people are more willing to trade up into those spots we can drop back pick up extra picks and really draft.

I feel this way, because I don't think there is any one position that we could draft that would put us over the top. If we just needed one DT, then I would be all for a top ten pick.

[DenBronx]

I really would prefer to be in the middle of the pack than to have a top ten draft pick. The financial impact of a top ten draft pick is brutal. If it goes wrong it can really cripple a team. But if we have something in the 11-15 range we get a good player whose salary won't hurt us in the years to come. Or since people are more willing to trade up into those spots we can drop back pick up extra picks and really draft.

I feel this way, because I don't think there is any one position that we could draft that would put us over the top. If we just needed one DT, then I would be all for a top ten pick.

i feel the same way. top 10 picks are greatly overated. picks 11-18 seem to be where the gold is because you can still get a really good player without breaking the piggy bank as you said. however if you had a top 10 pick you can still trade back but your pick is more valuable so you would get more picks in return.

were gonna have to lose out to get a top 10 pick....and id hate to see us win 3 games, lose to the chargers and go 8-8 only not to get into the playoffs. then you get to draft at about pick 19 or 20. that would suck.

[Fan in Exile]

If teams had more success trading out of the top ten, I would agree with you. But it is such a hard thing to do that I think we'll get more actual value from an 11-15 pick.

It would really suck to have a bad season and still pick like 19.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Denver will be in that 12-15 area, unless they totally tank out. I'd expect them to win at least one of their final four games, but I'm thinking a split would be likely, at 7-9. Keep in mind, some teams that bad could make the playoffs in the NFC, and that our SOS keeps going down weekly. Right now, we're at #12 and I predicted a while ago we'd be in that area.

Where I'd love a top ten pick, being in this area might be the most beneficial. Denver is likely to get more offers from teams looking to move up in this area than opposed to being in the top ten because of value distribution. It's quite possible, if Denver remains in this area - that they could pick up a high third-rounder, or even a late-second-rounder and move back in the first and still get a player they'd be targeting.

Finishing this bad will give us many options, and I hope unless it's a phenomenal player, Denver does the smart thing and trades down.

[BaiLeY324]

Denver will be in that 12-15 area, unless they totally tank out. I'd expect them to win at least one of their final four games, but I'm thinking a split would be likely, at 7-9. Keep in mind, some teams that bad could make the playoffs in the NFC, and that our SOS keeps going down weekly. Right now, we're at #12 and I predicted a while ago we'd be in that area.

Where I'd love a top ten pick, being in this area might be the most beneficial. Denver is likely to get more offers from teams looking to move up in this area than opposed to being in the top ten because of value distribution. It's quite possible, if Denver remains in this area - that they could pick up a high third-rounder, or even a late-second-rounder and move back in the first and still get a player they'd be targeting.

Finishing this bad will give us many options, and I hope unless it's a phenomenal player, Denver does the smart thing and trades down.

100% agreed. Especially since this is a pretty deep draft, and we could use 6-10 picks in this draft, hopefully 5 of them coming from the front 7. Also, there's not too many "can't pass up no matter what" type players in this draft except for McFadden/Dorsey who will be long gone by the time we pick, even if we do make it in the top 10.

[dogfish]

Yeah, Id rather end up either in the playoffs or with a high pick. I just dont want to be in that middle ground where youre neither.


and id hate to see us win 3 games, lose to the chargers and go 8-8 only not to get into the playoffs. then you get to draft at about pick 19 or 20. that would suck.

don'tcha just know, though. . . that's very likely exactly what we're going to do. . . . be just "good" enough to avoid getting the high draft order that can really help us out. . . don't forget, it's not just the first round that's determined by your record-- it's all the rounds, and a high second rounder can often be just as valuable as where we're usually drafting in the first. . . .



Denver will be in that 12-15 area, unless they totally tank out. I'd expect them to win at least one of their final four games, but I'm thinking a split would be likely, at 7-9. Keep in mind, some teams that bad could make the playoffs in the NFC, and that our SOS keeps going down weekly. Right now, we're at #12 and I predicted a while ago we'd be in that area.

Where I'd love a top ten pick, being in this area might be the most beneficial. Denver is likely to get more offers from teams looking to move up in this area than opposed to being in the top ten because of value distribution. It's quite possible, if Denver remains in this area - that they could pick up a high third-rounder, or even a late-second-rounder and move back in the first and still get a player they'd be targeting.

Finishing this bad will give us many options, and I hope unless it's a phenomenal player, Denver does the smart thing and trades down.


a lot of people always say "trade down, trade down". . . and while i do agree in principal, we both know it's not always so easy-- ya gotta have a trade partner. . . . from the little that i've heard about this year's draft, i'm wondering if there are really that many players that teams are going to be eager to jump up for. . . .

[broncofanatic1987]

If the Broncos end up with a top ten pick, that would be great. It's better than being in the bottom half after a season when you didn't even make the playoffs.

If they end up in the top fifteen, but out of the top ten, that would be good too.

At this point, it's too much to expect them to make the playoffs. They will probably beat the Chiefs, but they will almost undoubtedly lose to the Chargers and the Vikings. Losing on the road to the Texans is a real possibility as well.

It's almost guaranteed that they will be picking in the top fifteen. There's no use in bemoaning the fact that the Broncos are not a good team. They aren't and it's time to accept it. They aren't going to win four games in a row and back into the playoffs. The best we can hope for is 7-9 and a top fifteen pick. If we're really lucky, they will find a way to beat the Vikings even if Adrian Peterson goes wild. That would give them a shot at 8-8 if they manage to beat the Chiefs and the Texans.

Picking in the top ten would be the best scenario given the presumed fact that the Broncos will not make the playoffs. That's where they could find that one player that could put either the defense or the offense over the top. If there's going to be a rookie that makes an impact in his first year, more often than not, he's going to be a top ten pick. Even if they don't get that kind of impact from whoever they pick, they will still have picked from the cream of the crop and hopefully will have chosen a player that eventually will have a positive impact.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

a lot of people always say "trade down, trade down". . . and while i do agree in principal, we both know it's not always so easy-- ya gotta have a trade partner. . . . from the little that i've heard about this year's draft, i'm wondering if there are really that many players that teams are going to be eager to jump up for. . . .

It's all up to the team who has the pick if they want to make a trade or not. The teams in this draft didn't want to trade out of the top ten because they knew the talent fell down. As I've cited, several teams only considered there to be about 15 first-round guys this past year, and that's pathetic. This year there is easily 20 guys who are first-round talent, and that's without the juniors declaring, and there will probably be 10-20 that would carry a high grade.

That's why I'm on record saying 12 is better than say 7 from a trade perspective. Some teams would love to trade up, but nobody wants to get absolutely "taken" value wise. Denver will have a lot easier of a shot moving from #12 to #17 and getting the player they want than moving form #7 to say #12. Either way I'd be happy, but it'll be easier if we had a more modest pick.

Denver will be picking top fifteen, which will be great. A top ten would be nice, but in this draft, a top fifteen poses that good value. This draft has a fantastic amount of GREAT players, but it lacks real standouts (elites) at positions. If Denver ended up trading down to #15, picked up an extra pick in the second or third round and added Ryan Clady with that selection, that'd be awesome.

I think Denver would rather trade down than look for a franchise player, unless they TRULY believe that person will be it. With all our needs, I have a hard time buying that. The Chargers got it right by trading away picks to get more in the future. Denver could use to do that.

What'd be ideal is for Denver to just move down and down and down. Look at Green Bay. They did that with our Walker pick and they got a plethora of picks and players from that deal (Jennings, etc.) that have started or are still starting. The more picks the better, no matter WHAT.

[BANJOPICKER1]

How about we win out and get into the playoffs,,thats my hope....
GOOOOOOOOOOO BRONCOS!!!!!:D

[lex]

don'tcha just know, though. . . that's very likely exactly what we're going to do. . . . be just "good" enough to avoid getting the high draft order that can really help us out. . . don't forget, it's not just the first round that's determined by your record-- it's all the rounds, and a high second rounder can often be just as valuable as where we're usually drafting in the first. . . .




a lot of people always say "trade down, trade down". . . and while i do agree in principal, we both know it's not always so easy-- ya gotta have a trade partner. . . . from the little that i've heard about this year's draft, i'm wondering if there are really that many players that teams are going to be eager to jump up for. . . .

Oh yeah. I havent forgotten that. Im actually an advocate of trading up to get McFadden if we are in the top 10. And with the 5 or so Tackles slotted to be 1st round picks, its conceivable we could get McFadden and a very good tackle with high 2nd since there is a good chance one of those tackles would be available should Clady or Oher enter the draft.

[fcspikeit]

Oh yeah. I havent forgotten that. Im actually an advocate of trading up to get McFadden if we are in the top 10. And with the 5 or so Tackles slotted to be 1st round picks, its conceivable we could get McFadden and a very good tackle with high 2nd since there is a good chance one of those tackles would be available should Clady or Oher enter the draft.

Being able to draft McFadden is a tempting thought, but I hate the idea of having to trade away more picks to get a guy that just wouldn't make us that much better. Sure he would be an improvement over what we have now but look at how many points we are giving up. That is the reason we are losing games! We need help big time on D so why would we give up a high 2nd or 3rd round pick to get McFadden? IMO that would be dumb!

If we are going to draft an offensive guy in the first round I hope its on the O-line. But from the sounds of it there will still be lots of talent left there in the later rounds. I would look hard at DT and LB with our first couple picks. At that point if there was an offensive lineman we were scouting high that had fallen I say grab him. If not, Get another LB and look for depth on the O-line in the later rounds.

[BroncoBJ]

Greatest news I've heard this year.
This is why I love being a Broncos fan.

cant beat a top 10 draft pick. :salute:

[lex]

Being able to draft McFadden is a tempting thought, but I hate the idea of having to trade away more picks to get a guy that just wouldn't make us that much better. Sure he would be an improvement over what we have now but look at how many points we are giving up. That is the reason we are losing games! We need help big time on D so why would we give up a high 2nd or 3rd round pick to get McFadden? IMO that would be dumb!

If we are going to draft an offensive guy in the first round I hope its on the O-line. But from the sounds of it there will still be lots of talent left there in the later rounds. I would look hard at DT and LB with our first couple picks. At that point if there was an offensive lineman we were scouting high that had fallen I say grab him. If not, Get another LB and look for depth on the O-line in the later rounds.

I think we could probably give up Foxworth or a 4th and our 2009 1st plus swap 2008 #1s. Not a big deal when you consider how good McFadden is and what we are likely to get with our #1 next year which is not likely goind to be top 10. In other words whoever we get with those picks we would trade, they provide less assurance than there is with McFadden.

Also, with so many tackles slotted to go in the 1st round with the possibility of Clady and Oher entering the draft we could also get one of those tackles with an early 2nd. Personally, I would love to get Otah from Pittsburgh.

I would prefer to target a DT and a S in FA and go after offense and LBs int he draft. But really, Im fine with getting someone like Larsen/Goff/Leman rather than Laurinaitis.

[Nick]

Here is a break down how it looks for the Top 15 teams and drafting. This is based on stregth of schedule on not div and conf tie breakers. McFadden is out of the question. Do to the difficult games for a lot of the teams above us. I bet we will not break the top 12.

To go from #12 to # 1 would be very very difficult and not worth it what so ever because you are sacraficing your future of team.

# 12 pick is worth 1200

and the #1 is worth 3000

and the #2 is worth 2600

That is how far he is going to fall. A 4th round pick is any where from 44-112 points.

Now if you add is a 2009 1st round pick they are not going to value that pick as a #4 or #5 overall pick. I know our #1 next year which is not likely going to be top 10 but also know other teams know that to... You will have to put up the farm. That is not worth it with the amount of holes we have at DT, OLB, S, WR, KR/PR, ST and with RB the least priority.

As far as tackles and the scheme we use I think we can get a lot of value with Max Unger*, Oregon OT (If comes out), Duane Brown, Virginia Tech OT, Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers OT.

Guards

Kirk Elder, Texas A&M OG
Brandon Rodd, Arizona State OG
Adam Kraus, Michigan OG

These Centers might be able to be moved also on the line

Jordan Lipsey, Virginia C
Tony Brinkhaus, Minnesota C

1. Miami (0-12) .512

@ BUF // BAL // @ NE // CIN

2. New England (from San Francisco) (3-9) .469

MIN // CIN // TB // @ CLE

3. (T) St. Louis (3-9) .473

@ Cin // GB // PIT // @ ARI

3. (T) Atlanta (3-9) .473

NO // @TB // @ ARI // SEA

5. New York Jets (3-9) .516

CLE // @ NE // @ TEN // KC

7. Baltimore (4-8) .508

IND // @ MIA // @ SEA // PIT

6. Cincinnati (4-8) .512

STL // @ SF // CLE // @ MIA

8. Kansas City (4-8) .516

@ DEN // TEN // @ DET // @ NYJ

9. Oakland (4-8) .539

@ GB // IND // @ JAC // SD

10. Chicago (5-7) .465

@ WAS // @ MIN // GB // NO

11. Carolina (5-7) .477

@ JAC // SEA // DAL // @ TB

12. New Orleans (5-7) .484

@ ATL // ARI // PHI // @ CHI

13. (T) Philadelphia (5-7) .500

NYG // @ DAL // @ NO // BUF

13. (T) Washington (5-7) .500

CHI // @ NYG // @ MIN // DAL

15. (T) Houston (5-7) .504

TB // DEN // @ IND // JAC

15. (T) Denver (5-7) .504

KC // @ HOU // @ SD // MIN



Houston

Div Record 0-4

Conf Record 3-6

Broncos

Div Record 2-2

Conf Record 5-4

So it looks like Texans will have the Tie breaker if they are tied with us.

[Lonestar]

Being able to draft McFadden is a tempting thought, but I hate the idea of having to trade away more picks to get a guy that just wouldn't make us that much better. Sure he would be an improvement over what we have now but look at how many points we are giving up. That is the reason we are losing games! We need help big time on D so why would we give up a high 2nd or 3rd round pick to get McFadden? IMO that would be dumb!

If we are going to draft an offensive guy in the first round I hope its on the O-line. But from the sounds of it there will still be lots of talent left there in the later rounds. I would look hard at DT and LB with our first couple picks. At that point if there was an offensive lineman we were scouting high that had fallen I say grab him. If not, Get another LB and look for depth on the O-line in the later rounds.

This was a kill shot..

So many think that a great back is gonna make the OLINE better than it is.. They point to the running game in MIN but how good would he be behind this mish mash of a OLINE we have.. Would he be that much better than what we have? I think there would be some improvement but what is an extra 200 running yards a year? Even 500 over a year means 31.25 per game perhaps 5 more carries per game..

What this team needs more than anything is a functional Sam Adams type at DT. A Hanesworth and another massive DT to spell him and Thomas will make more difference on this team than any I repeat ANY RB could.

[Lonestar]

Here is a break down how it looks for the Top 15 teams and drafting. This is based on stregth of schedule on not div and conf tie breakers. McFadden is out of the question. Do to the difficult games for a lot of the teams above us. I bet we will not break the top 12.

To go from #12 to # 1 would be very very difficult and not worth it what so ever because you are sacraficing your future of team.

# 12 pick is worth 1200

and the #1 is worth 3000

and the #2 is worth 2600

That is how far he is going to fall. A 4th round pick is any where from 44-112 points.

Now if you add is a 2009 1st round pick they are not going to value that pick as a #4 or #5 overall pick. I know our #1 next year which is not likely going to be top 10 but also know other teams know that to... You will have to put up the farm. That is not worth it with the amount of holes we have at DT, OLB, S, WR, KR/PR, ST and with RB the least priority.

As far as tackles and the scheme we use I think we can get a lot of value with Max Unger*, Oregon OT (If comes out), Duane Brown, Virginia Tech OT, Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers OT.

Guards

Kirk Elder, Texas A&M OG
Brandon Rodd, Arizona State OG
Adam Kraus, Michigan OG

These Centers might be able to be moved also on the line

Jordan Lipsey, Virginia C
Tony Brinkhaus, Minnesota C

1. Miami (0-12) .512

@ BUF // BAL // @ NE // CIN

2. New England (from San Francisco) (3-9) .469
MIN // CIN // TB // @ CLE

3. (T) St. Louis (3-9) .473

@ Cin // GB // PIT // @ ARI

3. (T) Atlanta (3-9) .473

NO // @TB // @ ARI // SEA

5. New York Jets (3-9) .516

CLE // @ NE // @ TEN // KC

7. Baltimore (4-8) .508

IND // @ MIA // @ SEA // PIT

6. Cincinnati (4-8) .512

STL // @ SF // CLE // @ MIA

8. Kansas City (4-8) .516

@ DEN // TEN // @ DET // @ NYJ

9. Oakland (4-8) .539

@ GB // IND // @ JAC // SD

10. Chicago (5-7) .465

@ WAS // @ MIN // GB // NO

11. Carolina (5-7) .477

@ JAC // SEA // DAL // @ TB

12. New Orleans (5-7) .484

@ ATL // ARI // PHI // @ CHI

13. (T) Philadelphia (5-7) .500

NYG // @ DAL // @ NO // BUF

13. (T) Washington (5-7) .500

CHI // @ NYG // @ MIN // DAL

15. (T) Houston (5-7) .504

TB // DEN // @ IND // JAC

15. (T) Denver (5-7) .504

KC // @ HOU // @ SD // MIN



Houston

Div Record 0-4

Conf Record 3-6

Broncos

Div Record 2-2

Conf Record 5-4

So it looks like Texans will have the Tie breaker if they are tied with us.


Good work :salute: to you

Note NE with the potential #2 the richer keep getting richer all by having a REAL proffesional GM.

[lex]

This was a kill shot..

So many think that a great back is gonna make the OLINE better than it is.. They point to the running game in MIN but how good would he be behind this mish mash of a OLINE we have.. Would he be that much better than what we have? I think there would be some improvement but what is an extra 200 running yards a year? Even 500 over a year means 31.25 per game perhaps 5 more carries per game..

What this team needs more than anything is a functional Sam Adams type at DT. A Hanesworth and another massive DT to spell him and Thomas will make more difference on this team than any I repeat ANY RB could.

Its nothing like that. If you trade up to get McFadden (the thread title pertains to a scenario where we are top 10, not at 12), you still have a very high 2nd with which you could get an offensive tackle(namely a RT). There will be several in the first round and one is bound to be there. Also, Im for taking Cousins later as a possible LT. We fortify the DT through FA and same with S.

[Retired_Member_001]

We need to fix the offensive line before we go out and draft our running back for the future. People are also forgetting that a Travis Henry + Selvin Young combo could work out quite well. I am not a major fan of Travis Henry because I think he is a dodgy character and I don't think he has the needed speed. However him and Selvin Young could make a good combo.

The reason Adrian Peterson has worked out so well in Minnesota is because Minnesota have such a great offensive line, something we do not have.

Here's what we should do in the draft:

Draft an offensive tackle in round one.
Draft a linebacker in round two.
Draft a safety in round three.

And then draft another offensive tackle and a defensive tackle later on.

Then our major FA signings should be:

Jake Scott
Albert Haynesworth or Corey Williams.

That would fix the offensive and defensive lines.

[Nick]

We need to fix the offensive line before we go out and draft our running back for the future. People are also forgetting that a Travis Henry + Selvin Young combo could work out quite well. I am not a major fan of Travis Henry because I think he is a dodgy character and I don't think he has the needed speed. However him and Selvin Young could make a good combo.

The reason Adrian Peterson has worked out so well in Minnesota is because Minnesota have such a great offensive line, something we do not have.

Here's what we should do in the draft:

Draft an offensive tackle in round one.
Draft a linebacker in round two.
Draft a safety in round three.

And then draft another offensive tackle and a defensive tackle later on.

Then our major FA signings should be:

Jake Scott
Albert Haynesworth or Corey Williams.

That would fix the offensive and defensive lines.

What OT?

Only one I see I would not mind drafting is Baker because I think he is athletic enough to be a great impact for us and fit into our system with out a problem. If he is gone, long will by long gone. That is going to be a huge reach for a OT in 1st round. how ever I would not mind going to LB next with either rivers or conner and Phillips at safter if they are around.

Out of the other "possible" 1st round OL in Gosder Cherilus, Tony Hills, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah... I would not mind "trading back" to get Chris Williams and a extra pick. I just think we can get a lot of later round talent on our team that would be great in a zone blocking scheme.

DT is going to be a very big need in 1st or 2nd round if it is not focused in free agency.

I do not think we have a 3rd

[Skinny]

Out of the other "possible" 1st round OL in Gosder Cherilus, Tony Hills, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah... I like Cherilus. He's pretty athletic for his size, been healthy throughout his career at BC and has started every game for them since 2004 ... not bad.

[Lonestar]

Its nothing like that. If you trade up to get McFadden (the thread title pertains to a scenario where we are top 10, not at 12), you still have a very high 2nd with which you could get an offensive tackle(namely a RT). There will be several in the first round and one is bound to be there. Also, Im for taking Cousins later as a possible LT. We fortify the DT through FA and same with S.


FA DT's are reallllllllly hard to come by and even more expensive..

DEN problems over the years is paying up the kazoo for talent. We are almost always at MAX cap value and EVERY YEAR for the past 5-6 we have had to cut legit players to get under the cap to sign more FA's

When you draft well and get said talent that way the numbers are more cap friendly.. You get great talent for 4-5 years at a few hundred Thousand per year with a decent signing bonus opposed to 800K to 2 mill per year and killers signing bonuses..Total vaues some where in the 30 million range..

Mike has had to play catch up for almost a decade because of his really poor decisions DAFTING prior to 2006 with 2-3 decent choices in 2005.
Prior to that most of those DAFTS were marginal at the very best.

McFadden would be great IF we did not have 5-6 other major holes to fill first.. RB certainly has not been a weak spot in DEN for a long time. We have led the league in Running yards almost since Mikey has come to town. The current problems there will still be problems cause it is not RB that is the issue but OLINE. Which we have filled quite well for a decade without getting stupid and pulling another foster..

What more can mcfadden do with this OLINE.. anther 400-500 yards a year BFD, 31.25 more per game, Will not make a season like a Hanesworth type DT will.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

Out of the other "possible" 1st round OL in Gosder Cherilus, Tony Hills, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah... I would not mind "trading back" to get Chris Williams and a extra pick. I just think we can get a lot of later round talent on our team that would be great in a zone blocking scheme.

Otah will go in the top fifteen selections, Cherlius' stock has been dropping weekly, Tony Hills broke is leg and Chris Williams is a great prospect, but not an early first-rounder.

Chris Williams would be a guy we could HOPE for at say 40-something in round two.