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View Full Version : My Better Late then Never Assessment of Flacco's 2018 season



FanInAZ
07-12-2019, 03:06 AM
Although I haven't posted much this off-season due to me having a boat load of personal commitments, I have been taking the time to read comments in what I've considered to be the most significant threads. So, although I didn't comment in the thread that 1st announced us acquiring him, I did read the dissatisfaction that the majority of the 1st page of posters had with the trade. Because I hadn't paid much attention to him since about a couple years or so after he & the Ravens won the SB, I really wasn't sure what to think about it. The only thing I knew off the top of my head about his last season was that he was supplanted by Lamar Jackson. That's not a good 1st sign, but it needed to be tempered by the fact that his replacement was their 1st round draft pick who was supposed to supplant him some day anyways. So, what was the 1st thing I notice when I looked up the 2018 Ravens? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2018.htm

The Ravens were 4-5 with Flacco as the starter, but 6-1 with Jackson. That was another bad sign, but I decided to dig a little deeper to see if I could determine the exact reason for this turn around before fitting him for a noose. I noticed that Flacco had a 3.2 passing TD%, Jackson had 3.5%. However, Facco's 1.6 INT% was better then Jackson's 1.8% by nearly the same percentage point difference. Because I view the consequences of throwing a pick to be identical to the value of throwing a TD, I view this as a push. When comparing these numbers to other QBs, Flacco was tied with Blake Bortles for 28th in TD%, 1 spot & .1 percentage point higher then Case Keenum, that's not good. However, he was tied with Russell Wilson for 6th best INT%, which is very good. I believe Flacco doing such a good not turning the ball over more then compensates for his lack to TDs, he just needs the support of a quality RB & D to get wins. The fact Jackson did basically the same in these 2 important stats not only gives reason to believe that this may have to do more with the Ravens' system then their QB.

Although Jackson's superior athleticism definitely had a lot to do with their remarkable improvement, their QB position wasn't the only major change to their starting lineup last year. The key stats of their top 3 rushers, including links to their individual game logs:

Lamar Jackson: 16 games played, 7 starts, 147 carries for 695 yards, 4.7 ypc & 5 TDs https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00/gamelog/2018/
Gus Edwards: 11 games played, 6 starts, 137 carries for 718 yards, 5.2 ypc & 2 TDs https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EdwaGu00/gamelog/2018/
Alex Collins: 10 games played, 10 starts, 114 carries for 411 yards, 3.6 ypc & 7 TDs https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CollAl00/gamelog/2018/

Its obvious why I highlighted Edwards' superior ypc to Collins, but why did I include games played and highlighted games started? Because the number of games started by Edwards in nearly identical to those started by Jackson, and the number started by Collins in nearly identical to those started by Flacco. This opens the door to the possibility that part of Jackson's success could be attributed to having a better starting RB. A quick examination game logs and research in to both of them confirms that's exactly what happened. Edwards was an UDFA rookie who didn't play in his 1st game until week 6, & didn't take over as the starter until week 11. He had 10 carries for 42 yards in week 6, the last game the Ravens won with Flacco as QB. He totaled just 5 carries for 20 yards over the next 3 weeks, all of which were loss. While Jackson took over as the starting QB in week 10, Edwards took over the #1 RB & didn't have fewer then 12 carries in a game for the rest of the season. So, while the Ravens were 6-1 with Jackson as the starter, they were 7-1 in games that Edwards had at least 10 carries, 1 of which was with Flacco as starter. As far as Collins, he had to sit out week 11 because of a foot injury, then got arrested after a car accident shortly afterwards which led to his release: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/alex-collins.php

So, based on all of this, imagine what Flacco might have been able to do if he could've enjoyed the benefit of having a quality #1 RB like Edwards, instead of being saddled with Collins who was sub-par. Guess what? We get to find out because the make up of the Ravens team that won the SB with Flacco as QB, a great RB & D, looks a lot more to me like us this year then the Ravens looked last year. In fact, if you look at Edwards receiving stats, he did absolutely nothing out of the backfield. If he had been on our team last year, he might have been our #3 RB when need someone to run the ball and the #5 when looking for someone to come out of the backfield to make an important catch. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/2018.htm

My final analysis: Although statistical analysis doesn't tell you everything, for better or for worse, its all I've got to base an option. I'm a lot more confident in Flacco's ability then I was before I started doing the research for this assessment. He's 33 & been in the league for 11 season, which might be considered "middle aged" by NFL QB standards. When you add that to the fact that he's started every game since his rookie season until he got benched this last year, their every reason to believe that he could have 6 or 8 quality seasons left in him. Nevertheless, he can't win games all by himself. He's always needed the help of a strong supporting cast, especially in the running game. The Ravens didn't recognize who the right RB was for them until after they had benched him, but we found at least 2 last year that I believe are better then their best. This is going to show up in wins that Keenum couldn't get for us & Flacco couldn't get for them.

Shazam!
07-12-2019, 06:19 AM
Even the Broncos with Elway in his prime in 93x94 could only muster 9x7 and 7x9 because their Defense was a steaming pile of hot garbage.

Flaccos last few years in Baltimore were the lost years. They were just not very good.

Flacco has the arm and the swagger. He may not be the best athletic QB but he can throw and plays smart.

Broncos are gonna be the biggest surprise come Nov Dec. GREAT defense.

Hes gonna be a massive upgrade over Case.

It ain't gonna be "Oh look Flacco is GREAT thats why Denver is doing good", the OLine, running game, vertical game and the DEFENSE are going to be far away improved from last few years.

...and REAL production from the TEs?

Denver is gonna open eyes around the League, Fangio will be a COTY Candidate. Bet on it.

underrated29
07-12-2019, 11:01 AM
I like and appreciate all of your research and well thought out post! Applause to you sir!


I do not believe is anything more than Ryan Fitzmagic aside from slightly more consistent. Fitz will light it up for 4 games and be non existent the other 12. Like our SB year, I think we will be somewhat similar to that. The offense will be a bit better but the D will not quite be historically record setting. I am fine with flacco for now. He is our best option imo at the present time and like him a lot better than Case. We will see that notable difference. We will see the difference between a UFDA QB and a 1st rd QB. Flacco imo has never been Elite except for the playoffs.

Our Defense just might get us to the playoffs. If so, things could get exciting. For now, I will take great development from the Line, Sutton and Desean, Royce, the TEs and Lock and Chubby and Yiadom.

FanInAZ
07-12-2019, 05:54 PM
Even the Broncos with Elway in his prime in 93x94 could only muster 9x7 and 7x9 because their Defense was a steaming pile of hot garbage.

Flaccos last few years in Baltimore were the lost years. They were just not very good.

Flacco has the arm and the swagger. He may not be the best athletic QB but he can throw and plays smart.

Broncos are gonna be the biggest surprise come Nov Dec. GREAT defense.

Hes gonna be a massive upgrade over Case.

It ain't gonna be "Oh look Flacco is GREAT thats why Denver is doing good", the OLine, running game, vertical game and the DEFENSE are going to be far away improved from last few years.

...and REAL production from the TEs?

Denver is gonna open eyes around the League, Fangio will be a COTY Candidate. Bet on it.

TEs, what are those? I have vague memories of a guy named Shannon Sharpe, wasn't he 1 of these TEs? More recently, there was this guy name Julius Tomas who had pretty good chemistry with Payton Manning during the 1 year that everyone in a Broncos uniform had good chemistry with him. However, can you consider someone to be a TE if they can't block, especially in the run game? Well, we cut him lose after 4 years so he could go on and finish his career after 3 more seasons in which he didn't catch more then 46 passes in a single year. Man I wish my old fogy brain could remember what a TE looks like.

Timmy!
07-12-2019, 06:11 PM
So....when will it be never? I'm confused.

FanInAZ
07-12-2019, 06:25 PM
So....when will it be never? I'm confused.

I know you are, so what special accommodations can I provide you so you can keep up with the rest of the class :D

Timmy!
07-12-2019, 08:57 PM
I know you are, so what special accommodations can I provide you so you can keep up with the rest of the class :D

Grammar :D

FanInAZ
07-13-2019, 10:40 AM
Grammar :D

Theirs noting rong wit mi grammer :mad:

I should've done this on my laptop, my phone's autocorrect kept trying to mess up the joke :lol:

Shazam!
07-13-2019, 10:58 AM
Even the Broncos with Elway in his prime in 93x94 could only muster 9x7 and 7x9 because their Defense was a steaming pile of hot garbage.

Flaccos last few years in Baltimore were the lost years. They were just not very good.

Flacco has the arm and the swagger. He may not be the best athletic QB but he can throw and plays smart.

Broncos are gonna be the biggest surprise come Nov Dec. GREAT defense.

Hes gonna be a massive upgrade over Case.

It ain't gonna be "Oh look Flacco is GREAT thats why Denver is doing good", the OLine, running game, vertical game and the DEFENSE are going to be far away improved from last few years.

...and REAL production from the TEs?

Denver is gonna open eyes around the League, Fangio will be a COTY Candidate. Bet on it.

TEs, what are those? I have vague memories of a guy named Shannon Sharpe, wasn't he 1 of these TEs? More recently, there was this guy name Julius Tomas who had pretty good chemistry with Payton Manning during the 1 year that everyone in a Broncos uniform had good chemistry with him. However, can you consider someone to be a TE if they can't block, especially in the run game? Well, we cut him lose after 4 years so he could go on and finish his career after 3 more seasons in which he didn't catch more then 46 passes in a single year. Man I wish my old fogy brain could remember what a TE looks like.

The last near threat at TE was Owen Daniels and lets be real he was only as effective because of even a broken down Manning put him in great spots. Daniels was a great blocker with good years but way past his prime and slow as molasses uphill.

Simple Jaded
07-13-2019, 03:01 PM
The Broncos offense is no longer a Ferrari but at least Flacco can see over the steering wheel.

#IshouldWriteAZ’sHeadlines

Cugel
07-13-2019, 05:32 PM
The Broncos offense is no longer a Ferrari but at least Flacco can see over the steering wheel.

#IshouldWriteAZ’sHeadlines

In terms of car references: Denver Broncos under Vance Joseph:

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Broncos under Vic Fangio:

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Maybe? I have no idea what it's going to look like.

Hawgdriver
07-14-2019, 03:53 AM
That's pretty good.

Cugel
07-14-2019, 04:06 AM
That's pretty good.

There are a few inside views of what the new Fangio team is going to look like, but we can't be sure:

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